Hellebuyck is the Rare Goalie Worth the Acquisition Cost

Finding an upgrade in goal is perhaps the most pressing need of the offseason for Kevyn Adams and the Buffalo Sabres. The sting of missing the playoffs by such a narrow margin is only that much more frustrating when you think of the number of games that slipped away due to leaky goals and below average goaltending.

Devon Levi certainly didn’t wilt under the spotlight after making his NHL debut, and he’ll have the inside track at one of the NHL roster spots come training camp. Who the team chooses to play in tandem with him will be an extremely important decision. It seems unfair to expect Levi to take the bulk of the starts at just 21. Not only would it be unfair to him to add that much more pressure to the situation, but the team would be asking him to take on a workload (45-plus starts) he was ever asked to handle between college or junior.

The incumbents, Eric Comrie and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, provide some insurance for the club, though neither truly impressed last year. At even strength, the pair finished with a -5.6 and -7.1 goals saved above expected, respectively. To expect either to share any notable level of workload with Levi – let alone starter’s duties – would be a significant gamble for a team with playoff aspirations in 2023-24.

Assuming the team agrees that neither Luukkonen or Comrie have the ability to provide Levi with a stable partner, they’ll need to mine free agency or the trade market for a suitable option. Perhaps the most notable name that has been floated is Connor Hellebuyck, the perennial Vezina candidate with one more year left on his contract at $6.16 million cap hit. Hellebuyck’s rumored availability has sparked a fair bit of debate over his contract status, workload and acquisition cost.

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The Instigator Podcast 9.7 – Process and Results

For the first time in the history of the sport, the Sabres actually have quality underlying numbers. Despite that fact, they haven’t seen legitimate success early in the season due, in part, to their struggles to score at even strength. We discuss how those underlying results may be indicative of long term success should the Sabres manage to cobble together a better shooting percentage at even strength. We also touch on the Pierre-Luc Dubois/Patrik Laine trade between the Jets and Blue Jackets.

The Instigator Podcast is supported by Manscaped. You can get 20% off and free shipping by using the code 2ITB at www.manscaped.com.

Ranking the Potential NHL Lottery Winners

The NHL’s second draft lottery drops tonight with the eight eliminated Stanley Cup Qualifier teams holding equal 12.5% odds to land the first overall selection.

Maybe it was just me, but the minute the league announced that they’d be using placeholder spots for teams in the qualifying round, I knew one would wind up winning a top three pick. That feeling of inevitability wasn’t due to suspicion of foul play or some sort of fixed lottery but simply from knowing this league has perfected over complicating practically everything.

In and of itself, awarding lottery odds to eliminated teams wasn’t a poor choice. Given the gift on hindsight, the league probably would’ve been smarter to do a single drawing with the original odds once the qualifying round was done. Splitting the lottery was an odd choice which really only opened the door for complaints from fanbases (and probably some GMs) around the league. It will only become more unpopular if one of the stronger teams in tonight’s drawing wins the first pick.

The drawing itself if rife with potential controversy. You can expect a wave of negative reactions if Toronto, Pittsburgh or Edmonton win this evening. Even the Rangers, fresh off picking second last year after some lottery luck, would be a fairly unpopular result. There are also some very obvious Sabres-related pitfalls that could come out of tonight. A Leafs win would be, let’s say, inconvenient. As would a Panthers win. Really any Eastern Conference win would create challenges for the Sabres. With that in mind, let’s rank the potential lottery winners based on how it could affect the Sabres and though the additional lens of my personal preferences. Continue reading

Over-Thought: Seven Days Out and Waiting for Action

It feels a little soon for the Sabres to be playing actual hockey games, but we’re a week out from the start of the NHL regular season and given the Sabres seemingly perpetual state, there isn’t much room for optimism.

There’s still time for Jason Botterill and Ralph Krueger to actually remove some players from the roster that finished in the bottom five last year. It’s just getting harder to have confidence anything substantial is going to happen when all of the usual suspects are still around.

Rasmus Ristolainen is the elephant in the room and his presence on the trade block is a matter of debate. Not only is there debate in the fanbase over whether or not he should be traded but whether or not the Sabres are actually shopping him or if they’re simply taking calls on him. Beyond Ristolainen there’s Vladimir Sobotka, Zemgus Girgensons and Johan Larsson occupying the fan’s doghouse. There isn’t much in the way of Sabres information in this week’s 31 Thoughts (or last week’s) but it’s still going to serve as the kick off to The OT for this season. Continue reading

The Instigator Podcast 8.5 – Make a Move

Justin Faulk was thought of as a targets for teams sniffing around Rasmus Ristolainen. Rumors that he would be dealt created some concern for Sabres fans hoping to see Ristolainen dealt. But Faulk’s final destination of St. Louis kept the teams reported to have the most interest in a right handed defenseman (namely Ristolainen) in the hunt. We analyze the Faulk deal, what affect it may have on the Sabres and just what’s left for Jason Botterill and Ralph Krueger have left to do in order to sort out their roster.

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The Instigator Podcast 8.4 – Accidental Armchair GMs

News broke that Dustin Byfuglien is contemplating his future in hockey and that again sparked discussions over whether or not the Sabres and Jets are good partners in a Rasmus Ristolainen deal. We jump head first into that topic, determining if a fit exists and how last week’s rumors surrounding the Ducks and Justin Faulk could play a role. Somehow our discussion over a potential trade fit turned into a scary impression of a Cap Friendly Armchair GM. So accept our apologies for our silliness with some of the trade proposals we throw out. Prior to that, we touch on the first two preseason games (well, the first one) and which players stood out in each contest.

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The Instigator Podcast 8.1 – How Much is the RFA Logjam Holding Up?

We’re back for another season of The Instigator Podcast and we kick things off with a quick conversation on the Sabres new alternate jerseys before jumping in to more pressing issues. Namely, how impactful the roster of unsigned restricted free agents has been on business around the rest of the league. We close up with listener questions and yet another discussion on how the Sabres will trim their roster prior to the start of the season.

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Over-Thought: Offseason Coming into Shape

As the Stanley Cup Finals creep closer, as does the draft and offseason. That means teams who missed the playoffs or those eliminated early are gearing up for roster changes. The most recent edition of 31 Thoughts had plenty of tidbits on those potential moves and in the newest OT, I take a look at a few that stood out.

If you haven’t read last week’s 31 Thoughts you can catch it here. Continue reading

Could First Round Exits Offer Sabres a Trade Partner?

The startling reality that faces the Sabres after yet another season without the playoffs is the club needs yet another round of big roster changes after their maneuvering over the past two summers has gone for naught.

Jason Botterill and Phil Housley’s first year saw ten new faces brought to Buffalo. They were just shy of repeating that figure again this season. While it’s not out of the question that the team they inherited was already heading to the basement before the pair stepped in. The franchise was already suffering in the wake of below average drafting and owned a handful of bad contracts while lacking depth. That they wound up finishing worse than Tim Murray and Dan Bylsma’s final year is perhaps more of an inevitability than a surprise. Regardless, Housley and Botterill will own the results of the last two seasons. It will all rest on Botterill’s feet and it remains to be seen whether he’ll be around to see the team climb back to respectability.

That leaves him will the difficult task of overhauling his roster for the third-straight summer. Last year’s overhaul brought only a minute improvement in the standings, buoyed by the 10-game win streak but destroyed by the January-to-April collapse. Does he have another trick up his sleeve, or will Botterill be resigned to a more conventional path to improvement?

Botterill’s best opportunity for unearthing talent at discount prices may come from targeting the teams run out of the first round of the playoffs. Teams like Pittsburgh who were frustrated at their early exit, or the Jets and Lightning whose cap situations will likely require trades to be made. Between tight cap situations and disappointing exits, there could be room for the Sabres to pounce. Continue reading

The Instigator Podcast 7.22 – NHL Trade Deadline Breakdown

The bonus extension of the deadline podcast looks at some of the biggest trades that went down at the 2019 NHL Trade Deadline. We look into all of the moves made by the Columbus Blue Jackets and the arms race out West. Specifically the deals made by Nashville, Winnipeg and, of course, Vegas.

You can listen to The Instigator Podcast on most podcast streaming services, including large providers such as iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio and TuneIn and most other third-party podcast streaming apps. You can find links to subscribe and rate the show below:

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