Two in the Box

Finding an upgrade in goal is perhaps the most pressing need of the offseason for Kevyn Adams and the Buffalo Sabres. The sting of missing the playoffs by such a narrow margin is only that much more frustrating when you think of the number of games that slipped away due to leaky goals and below average goaltending.

Devon Levi certainly didn’t wilt under the spotlight after making his NHL debut, and he’ll have the inside track at one of the NHL roster spots come training camp. Who the team chooses to play in tandem with him will be an extremely important decision. It seems unfair to expect Levi to take the bulk of the starts at just 21. Not only would it be unfair to him to add that much more pressure to the situation, but the team would be asking him to take on a workload (45-plus starts) he was ever asked to handle between college or junior.

The incumbents, Eric Comrie and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, provide some insurance for the club, though neither truly impressed last year. At even strength, the pair finished with a -5.6 and -7.1 goals saved above expected, respectively. To expect either to share any notable level of workload with Levi – let alone starter’s duties – would be a significant gamble for a team with playoff aspirations in 2023-24.

Assuming the team agrees that neither Luukkonen or Comrie have the ability to provide Levi with a stable partner, they’ll need to mine free agency or the trade market for a suitable option. Perhaps the most notable name that has been floated is Connor Hellebuyck, the perennial Vezina candidate with one more year left on his contract at $6.16 million cap hit. Hellebuyck’s rumored availability has sparked a fair bit of debate over his contract status, workload and acquisition cost.

Hellebuyck is set to be an unrestricted free agent next summer at 31 years old and after his ninth NHL season. Sergei Bobrovsky signed his seven-year, $70 million contract at 31. As did Carey Price with his eight-year $84 million deal. It’s safe to assume Hellebuyck will be looking for something similar should he reach the open market next summer. Even if GMs around the league have learned from the Bobrovsky and Price contracts and avoid a max-term contract, Hellebuyck will still likely command a significant AAV as a free agent. That would take him out of the running for the Sabres as a long-term option as anything beyond a three-year pact would create issues with the succession plan for Devon Levi. As a one-year mercenary, however, he could offer the Sabres significant value. In turn, the Sabres may be able to offer him a fair bit as well.

Hellebuyck, a Vezina winner and three-time finalist, finished sixth in goals saved above expected at even strength last season. He posted a sterling .920 save percentage and has dipped below a .910 only once in his career. He’s also played in five postseasons, including a trip to the 2018 Wester Conference Finals. Hellebuyck is precisely the type of goaltender who could help the Sabres snap their postseason drought. Conversely, the Sabres could help Hellebuyck boost his value as a UFA by offering him a lighter regular season workload than he’s seen the previous two years when he’s started 64 and 66 games, respectively. Plugging Hellebuyck into a tandem with Levi would allow the Sabres to give Levi somewhere in the neighborhood of 30-to-35 starts while giving Hellebuyck the remaining 50 games or so. That would leave Hellebuyck fresh for a potential playoff run and provide him the opportunity to make a statement heading into free agency. In a vacuum, it could be a fruitful marriage.

Acquisition cost is the lone stumbling block to this scenario. Are the Sabres willing to part with the pieces necessary to acquire a goaltender of Hellebuyck’s caliber. Further, are they willing to part with the pieces necessary to acquire a goalie who would only be in Buffalo for one season?

There hasn’t been any concrete reporting on what the Jets would ask for in a Hellebuyck trade. It’s safe to assume the Jets will expect any package to include a first round pick or a prospect of equal value. Perhaps both, even. One challenge is that there have been scant few trades involving goalies of Hellebuyck’s caliber in recent years. There have been over 50 deals centered around goaltenders since the 2012-13 lockout but few have involved a significant package of players and picks and fewer still have involved a player of Hellebuyck’s caliber.  

Goaltenders dealt for first round picks include Cory Schneider (2013), Ryan Miller (2014), Robin Lehner (2015), Martin Jones (2015), Frederik Andersen (2016) and Darcy Kuemper (2021). Other notable trades include Brian Elliott going from St. Louis to Calgary for a 2016 2nd and a conditional 3rd; Jack Campbell and Kyle Clifford moving from LA to Toronto for Trevor Moore, a 2020 3rd and a 2021 3rd; Matt Murray going from Pittsburgh to Ottawa for Jonathan Gruden and a 2020 2nd; and Marc-Andre Fleury moving from Chicago to Minnesota for a conditional 2nd round pick that could have risen to a first.

Deals centered around goalies have evolved almost in lockstep with the evolution of the position around the league. As fewer teams have leaned on a workhorse, fewer deals have been made in the pursuit of a bona fide starter. The deals that have involved the most premium assets have tended to be moves to acquire a young goaltender with potential to become a starter. For example, Jones, Lehner and Schneider all fit into that category. Meanwhile, the closest deals to the type of package that would return Hellebuyck were the moves that brough Andersen to Toronto and Kuemper to Colorado. Andersen garnered first and second round picks while Kuemper brought back a first and third round pick and prospect Conor Timmins.

If there’s anything that would even be in the neighborhood of what I expect the Jets to ask for Hellebuyck, it’s the Kuemper deal. A first round pick, an extra pick as a makeweight and a high quality prospect. My expectation is that Winnipeg requests a higher end prospect than Timmins was at the time of that deal. That could see the Sabres send as much as their 2023 1st round pick, a prospect like Noah Ostlund and another mid-round draft pick. Is that a package worth shelling out for a rental? Or is the team’s prospect pool deep enough to weather that sort of move for the opportunity for the parent club to take another big step forward?

I love the idea of Hellebuyck. He’s a phenomenal goaltender and under virtually any circumstance he would be well worth the price to acquire him. I am turned off by the idea that he’ll probably get a contract similar to Bobrovsky or Price. That’s a really difficult contract to stomach for a goalie who will be on the wrong side of 30. But I do like the opportunity to go buy one of the league’s best at the position that cost the team a playoff berth last season.

The acquisition cost is the stumbling point for me. Balancing the opportunity to get back into the post season vs. the long term assets they’d be surrendering is difficult. If Adams decided this was the deal he needed to make to get his team over the hump, I’d still be happy about it. It would be an aggressive move that Adams should be gearing up to make. Though I think a cheaper deal would be more palatable overall while leaving space for other big ticket maneuvers this summer. Carter Hart’s name has been tossed around as an idea by a few others in the Sabres blog-o-sphere and he’s a good example of a quality goalie who wouldn’t break the bank in a trade.

Still, Hellebuyck is the prize of the offseason in goal. Winnipeg will be asking for a king’s ransom in return, but he’s the exact type of goalie capable of putting a young, growing team on his back.