The Instigator Podcast 7.20 – Botterill Speaks, Now What?

Jason Botterill held court with the press and gave his head coach a vote of confidence. He also reinforced his previous claims of the deals he’s looking to make ahead of the deadline. We air some frustrations with Botterill’s apparent approach and break down some of the recent deals to break, including Charlie Coyle to Boston and Jakub Silfverberg’s extension in Anaheim. We also offer up a few thoughts on Jeff Skinner, trying to cool off any concerns people may have regarding whether or not he’ll be signing an extension in Buffalo.

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Over-Thought: Sabres Need to Shop for College Free Agent Goalies

The final weeks before the deadline always seem to drag. Probably because the same rumors keep getting recycled, debunked and then re-reported. This week’s edition as rumor-heavy as you might expect two weeks out from the deadline, but I suspect next week’s will be chock-full of rumors.

Check out this week’s edition of 31 Thoughts here.

  1. One GM who could change the market over the next few days? Minnesota’s Paul Fenton. His team is still clinging to a playoff spot, but Mikko Koivu is out for the year. Ownership always pushes for the playoffs, but what do the Wild honestly think about their situation?

The Wild are bobbing in and out of a wild card spot and they’ve spent the last number of seasons as a playoff club unable to get over the hump. Having to get through Chicago or Nashville or the Blues at the height of their powers certainly didn’t help.

But now Minnesota’s core is beginning to age. Ryan Suter and Zach Parise are both 34 and still have six years left on their deals, Jared Spurgeon is 29, Devan Dubnyk is 32 and Mikko Koivu is 35. They already parted ways with Nino Niederreiter and there have been rumors that Charlie Coyle may be on his way out. Both were already inching to their late-20s and both Jason Zucker and Mikael Granlund are in the same spot. Coyle, Granlund and Zucker are hardly long in the tooth, so don’t misinterpret this as all doom and gloom for the Wild, but they’re probably approaching a period of transition. They’re not completely cooked when it comes to prosepcts but they’re not flush with young talent either. They always feel close but unable to push the right button to bring it all together. If they miss the playoffs this year I would suspect they’d be in the market for some fairly significant change come the summer. Continue reading

Over-Thought: Jackets Backed into a Corner with Bob and Bread

I’m a few days late with the OT this week but better late than never. This week’s edition is technically last week’s, with thoughts coming from Elliotte Friedman’s column breaking down the Auston Matthews extension. If you haven’t already, you can read the entire column here.

  1. Over the weekend, the feeling was Florida would not make trades for Panarin or Sergei Bobrovsky — feeling there was no need to spend assets when the Panthers liked their chances in free agency. Monday, the New York Post’s Larry Brooks reported the Panthers are thinking about trading for Bobrovsky, so as to give him eight years. We will see where this goes, but don’t be surprised to see Florida continue to try to clear room. Mike Hoffman, now in his fifth-straight 20-goal season, could be another to go. Teams are always looking for scorers.

This rumor keeps gaining steam and it’s an extremely unenviable position for the Blue Jackets to be in. As a member of Team Chaos, I’m all for seeing this deal go down. At the deadline. There’s an added bonus of a division rival potentially carrying $14m-plus in goaltender contracts, so I’d be happy to see the Panthers get aggressive for the pair of pending UFAs.

Today’s report that Jonathan Huberdeau could be a potential casualty for the Panthers to clear the space for the pair added even more fuel to the fire, though Dave Pagnotta of The Fourth Period threw some cold water on the report. This has to be a tricky one to navigate for the Blue Jackets as they’re backed into a corner on each player and it seems apparent that they’ll each be wearing new uniforms next season. They’re a strong team that’s probably one or two pieces away from being a serious contender. They’re hardly in a position to be trading their top scorer or starting goalie. They should be adding in an attempt to get over the hump in the East. Do you keep Panarin and Bobrovsky as “rentals” for the postseason, make your run and deal with the fallout in the summer? Or do you try to double down? Ship them for assets in an attempt to flip the return into more bodies prior to the deadline? If Huberdeau was truly on the block, I’d be taking a long look at pulling the trigger on the deal if I were Jarmo Kekalainen. Huberdeau isn’t Panarin but he keeps you afloat offensively. Add in whatever else the Panthers will be offering (Brassard, picks, prospects) and the opportunity to leverage those assets prior to February 25. That would require a lot of moving parts but it offers the Jackets more stability for this season without the threat of the bottom falling out immediately after.

I still think this plays out in the summer. Are the Panthers confident enough that an eighth year is enticing enough to swing a deadline deal? Is there enough time for the Jackets to turn the non-NHL bodies they’d receive into more help for a playoff push? If I’m Florida I’d be working to maximize the return I can get at the draft in order to shed salary with plans on putting together two big offers on July 1. Continue reading

Over-Thought: Rumor Season is About to Hit Full Throttle

Doing a breakdown of Elliotte Friedman’s 31 Thoughts is hardly an original venture but it was something I did every now and then for Dave Davis and The Buffalo Star. In an attempt to get some more content on the site I thought I’d resurrect this feature here at 2ITB for your reading enjoyment.

A primer, for those who may not be familiar with the practice: I’ll take a handful of topics from the most recent 31 Thoughts published by Sportsnet and offer up a few additional thoughts and opinions on the news of the week. The original text will be bold.

If you haven’t read this week’s edition yet, you can find it here.

  1. On Burakovsky: The Capitals have asked for a couple of mid-to-high round draft picks in exchange (seconds and thirds would be a good get) for him. That would give them more flexibility and assets to chase what they need. Even with a seven-game losing streak, absolutely no one is writing them off.

The Sabres haven’t been directly connected to Burakovsky yet but he’s better than at least five of Buffalo’s current wingers. If they plugged him into a top-six role, there’s reason to believe he’d surpass the production he’s had the last three years in Washington. He’d certainly be more effective than he’s been in Washington this year considering he’s struggled to crack the Capitals’ lineup.

That he’s been unable to cement a regular spot is disconcerting. He’s a quality player with elite skill, someone I’ve personally been a fan of going back to his time with the Erie Otters. However, he’s bordering on project territory and that’s not something I’d be too keen on seeing the Sabres take on. Luckily the expected price on Burakovsky is pretty low. A second and a third round pick would be pretty affordable and it could dip lower if his production stays stagnant leading up to the deadline.

If the Sabres could somehow leverage the Capitals to move Burakovsky for less than a 2nd and a 3rd (perhaps they’d like the added depth Nathan Beaulieu would offer along with a draft pick) I’d be very pleased with acquiring him. It’s a situation worth tracking as the opportunity to pair Burakovsky with a more aggressive deal to add young talent at center would represent a strong step towards remaining in the playoff conversation in 2018-19. Continue reading

The Instigator Podcast 6.23 – How will the Sabres Approach the Trade Deadline

We’ve nearly reached the trade deadline and the (short) list of buyers is falling into place. We discuss Buffalo’s approach and the types of prices we expect to see Jason Botterill receive for players like Josh Gorges, Evander Kane, Benoit Pouliot and others. Additionally, we hit on some targets we hope to see Botterill bring in to bolster Buffalo’s roster for the coming seasons.

 

The Instigator Podcast 6.22 – Ankles Out for Eichel and a Suitor Emerges for Lehner

On this week’s episode we cover the fallout of the Jack Eichel and CJ Smith injuries, touch on Alex Nylander’s stalling development and offer up a brief Olympic prediction. We also focus on the rumored links between the Sabres and Flyers and exactly how a deal between the two might come to fruition.

The Instigator Podcast 4.16 – Deadline Primer

Chris and Tyler look ahead to Monday’s deadline and the players the Sabres will likely move on from. We also visit a few potential targets Tim Murray might consider as he continues to re-shape the roster.

Things to keep in mind as the deadline approaches

Two games and five days separate the Sabres from the trade deadline and just about every player on the roster that carries some sort of value has been mentioned in at least one trade rumor over the past few days.

What is known is that Ryan Miller, Matt Moulson and Steve Ott are at the top of Tim Murray’s to-trade list. They’re all pending free agents and are expected to fetch a hefty return on the open market. Henrik Tallinder, Tyler Myers, Christian Ehrhoff and Drew Stafford have each been mentioned along the way and with silly season in full swing it’s important to know your facts.

It’s always good to be fully informed, so make sure you know the contract and cap situations for any team you think the Sabres may be dealing with. You’ll also find additional information on Cap Recapture Penalties and how much salary can be retained by teams. For example, the Sabres can still retain one more contract in a trade. They can retain up to 50% of a deal and it will likely be that of Ryan Miller’s. So, when someone says Miller can’t go somewhere because the team is  against the cap, you’ll know that the Sabres can hold onto half of his deal along with taking salary back to help grease the wheels.

Another good source of information is Hockey’s Future. The Sabres are going to be dealing for picks and prospects, check out each team’s prospect pool to figure out who would be names to chase. Elite Prospects and The Hockey News are also good sources of source material.

Lastly, use reputable sources. Otherwise, don’t go to Hockey Buzz. The Fourth Period offers awesome rumor reports and breakdowns and never oversteps their bounds when reporting a rumor. In fact, they were early on the reports that Dan Girardi would be signing and he signed his deal while I was writing this. The Hockey News also has a solid rumor section and even TSN offers a rumor round up, of sorts, on a daily basis.

If you’re scrolling through Twitter, each of the mentioned sites has their own feed and reporters like Darren Dreger and Bob McKenzie are always preferable over users with two Rs or two Ys in their name. You can usually count on anonymous sources for little more than barstool fodder and very little real information. Stick to the primary sources and you’ll get solid reports in a timely manner.

This is certainly a working list and I would have much rather written it in more of a survival guide format since that’s much more fun. But, use this as a guide for this year’s deadline and be prepared for at least three more days of rampant speculation before the trades start hitting.

Trading Ehrhoff will be a risk-reward venture

If things weren’t frantic enough in the land of Sabres trade rumors, Christian Ehrhoff is now said to be on the block in what’s shaping up to be the biggest fire sale this side of the Florida Miami Marlins.

Ehrhoff has been a steady contributor on the blueline since he first signed and is easily Buffalo’s number one defenseman. While his contract goes forever, it’s at a very friendly cap hit that allows for quite a bit of maneuverability. Adding his on-ice exploits to such a friendly cap hit makes for an attractive trade chip for a number of competitors.

The issue, however, is the Cap Recapture Clause that was included in the new CBA after last year’s lockout. It was built to penalize teams who signed massive, cap circumventing contracts under the previous CBA. It’s a very complicated rule that is difficult to explain but if you read this thread from HF Boards (h/t Scott Michalak @scottyMCSS) on how Ehrhoff’s recapture penalty works you’ll know all you need on how hard the Sabres will be hit if he’s traded.

As you may notice, Buffalo gets hammered if they trade Ehrhoff and he retires prior to the end of his deal. This is particularly true if Ehrhoff chooses to retire after the 2018-19 season ($5M cap penalty) or 2019-20 season ($10M cap penalty). That’s a lot of scratch to sacrifice. It also makes trading him nearly prohibitive. Continue reading