This will be the first in a series of posts that revisits the first round of the NHL Draft. I did something similar with previous Sabres drafts for Buffalo Wins last year and NHL Network Radio on SiriusXM has been doing something along these lines the last few weeks.
I wanted to look back on the first round of recent drafts and to figure out which players worked out, who turned out to be a sleeper and who wound up as a bust. So I took each draft between 2004 and 2009 and re-selected the first round based on the players from the entire draft.
I evaluated and drafted by following a handful of guidelines. The overall goal was to identify where some prospects would be picked if the draft could be reconducted today. I attempted to strike a balance of simply reordering the top 30 players from each draft and making some selections based on who would best aid certain teams.
I didn’t consider each and every team’s draft strategy since I can’t speak to the draft strategy of each team in any particular draft. However, if there was a player that would address a very specific need, goaltenders being the best example, that was taken into consideration. I also looked at each draft independent of those in the preceding or following years. A player’s original draft selection didn’t factor into their new position in this practice.
The first draft I chose to reevaluate was 2004. This draft was headlined by Alex Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin. As you’ll notice, I will list the team’s new pick first followed by the pick they made originally with a brief explanation for most, if not all of the choices. I will also list where the new pick was originally selected.
Doug Whaley made sure that he put his stamp on the Buffalo Bills with this year’s draft. He made both pragmatic and radical moves over the weekend in what appears to be a clear attempt to end the Bills’ decade-and-a-half playoff drought.
With Sammy Watkins as the obvious crown jewel of the class (as any first round pick would be), Whaley committed to improving Buffalo’s offense with his selections that included three offensive linemen. The trade to get Watkins is a clear risk for a team with as many holes to plug as the Bills do. Whaley deserves credit for ensuring that he kept his 2014 selections intact while sacrificing his first round pick in 2015.
My feelings on trading up wavered on nearly a week-to-week basis as the draft slowly approached. Making a drastic move to secure a cornerstone talent like Jadeveon Clowney would have been interesting and quite entertaining. However the assets required to make a pick like that outweighed the benefits in many cases. Managing to only give up an additional mid-round selection along with the requisite first round pick was a coup for Whaley. Even if you have concerns over giving up that pick, Whaley still did well in maintaining the rest of his assets along the way.
The lone concern I had in giving up a first round pick in 2015 is that the Bills could be on the outside looking in if a quarterback is needed. This is a worst case scenario situation, of course, but should management or the coaching staff realize that EJ Manuel isn’t capable of carrying the team – or if Manuel’s knees don’t cooperate again – the Bills may be searching for a signal caller next year. With Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston expected to be the most sought after signal callers in 2015, the Bills would be left out of the party. Now, a number of factors would need to come together for the Bills to be in that situation, but it certainly could be a possibility come next May. Continue reading →
The move that sent Jaroslav Halak to the Capitals was one that ensured Tim Murray ensured that he had a goaltender who would be with the organization past this summer’s free agency period. Little did many know that Halak would wind up becoming a contributing factor in which first round pick the Sabres receive from the Islanders.
Halak was swapped by the Capitals for a fourth round pick yesterday in a move that gives the Islanders two full months to negotiate with Halak ahead of free agency. This is a move geared towards improving the Islanders now. Their lack of goaltending last year kept the Islanders from competing for a playoff position and ultimately pushed them towards the top of the draft. While this isn’t a final piece of a Cup run puzzle it’s certainly a move that indicates that Snow won’t be taking the scenic route towards reshaping the roster.
That route likely includes using their 2014 first round pick.
There’s still the possibility that Halak chooses to test the market despite the Islanders efforts to get in him ahead of time – remember, the Islanders failed to get Christian Ehrhoff under contract after trading a fourth round pick for his rights in 2014. Should that be the case Snow would be stuck pursuing a contingency plan in net. Either way, it’s obvious that he wants to make immediate improvements to his roster which tells me they aren’t necessarily in the tanking business for 2014-15. Continue reading →
The latest news out of the swirling tide of NFL rumors is that Austin will indeed leave Dallas in his rearview. On the Cowboys’ official website, two writers answered a slew of questions surrounding the team. And of course, leading the way was one about whether or not Austin will return to the Lone Star State. If we’re to believe what these guys are saying, it’s not looking good:
“That’s always a possibility, but I’d be surprised to see that happen. I think more so than the money, the Cowboys were ready to move on to a new player at the position. It wouldn’t hurt to have him, but his hamstrings got to the point where he seemed like a ticking time bomb before the next injury. He’s one of the best receivers remaining in free agency, but it’s hard to count on that.”
A few weeks back I was contacted by PumperNicholl from The Royal Half about participating in the first annual Professional Hockey Bloggers Association awards voting. They put together 65 blogs (65!) to vote on the seven big awards.
Each blog was given one entry to select up to five players for each award. Here’s how the voting played out:
In the past you’ve read posts on this site titled as pipe dreams. They were a string of ideas I had envisioned for various parts of the city that featured a wide range of ideas which varied in terms of feasibility.
I hope that this post serves as a starting point for a number of different ideas that I’m pitching for the Sabres. In fact, I’ve ran some similar posts in recent weeks and months. So it’s not as if this is a foreign concept to this space.
So I kept brushing him back.
Perhaps one of these ideas will strike a chord with a member of the Sabres front office (unlikely) or even just drum up conversation amongst the fan base that could gain momentum down the road. I enjoy coming up with various ideas and floating them for conversation. Especially when it’s something that could benefit the city or, in this case the Sabres.
The Sabres currently hold an annual event called the Corporate Challenge that is a three-on-three tournament that features alumni headlining teams sponsored by local businesses. The cost per team is $3500 and the players receive a jersey along with a number of other amenities that accompany the tournament. This includes food and drink throughout the day and at the culmination of the event. It’s a terrific even and I’d like to see the Sabres build on the success and momentum of the Corporate Challenge by instituting a fantasy camp. Continue reading →
There’s no question that the NHL Playoffs are the greatest part of every season. An easy argument could be made that the postseason tournament is the best amongst the four major sports. The series format, structure and seeding are nearly perfect with the change back to the divisional format this season.
While there isn’t a thing I’d change about the playoffs in their current form, I’ve wondered recently about an adjustment to the series structure. The idea shuffles the order in which the games are played to not only add value to home ice advantage, but to give the higher seed an extra opportunity to clinch a series on home ice.
The NHL model, as it stands now follows a 2-2-1-1-1 format with the home team hosting games one, two, five and seven. It is far superior to the NBA’s awful, horrible, no good 2-3-2 order that sees the higher seed forced to the road for three straight games. The system that I’m proposing would see the lower seed host the first two games while giving the higher seed four of the final five games. Continue reading →
As we enter the middle of the 1st round of the NHL playoffs (which have been outstanding), the NFL schedule release is the first tangible sign that football is coming sooner rather than later; and for Buffalo sports fans still smarting from the Sabres’ dismal season that is welcome news.
I have to say I was left decidedly underwhelmed when the schedule came out 30 minutes early on the Bills’ website (courtesy of an NFL faux pas). No game on Thanksgiving after it was supposedly leaked by the Bills was a bit of a letdown, but my biggest disappointment came from not seeing a Monday night game on the slate. When Fox Sports Wisconsin reported the Bills would face the Packers on a Monday night at The Ralph I was more than excited to see the Bills on the league’s big stage for the first time since 2009; sadly, it wasn’t to be. Miami as a home opener will definitely be a blast, but I’d much rather see the Fish make the trek north in December. There are also no warm weather teams forced to deal with the cold and wind of Buffalo in November and December; the only two warm weather teams the Bills face beyond Week 10 (Oakland and Miami) are both on the road.
Everything is not negative, though. Four home games in September and October, plus a Packers team that draws well in December, will have Bills execs and salespeople pretty happy. You’ll also remember the Bills taking issue with the number of times they had to face a team that had an extended period of rest before playing Buffalo. That won’t be an issue this year as there are only four matchups this year involving a team having extended rest, and the Bills have the benefit of a long rest in two of those. Most obvious among the positives for this year’s schedule: no Toronto game. It has been much discussed so I won’t beat a dead horse, but it’s nice to see eight games at the Ralph again.
On to the week to week breakdown; keep in mind these are obviously done before the draft and before things like preseason injuries are accounted for.
Week 1: At Bears- The Bills open on the road against an NFC team for the first time since 1997, and visit the Bears for the first time since a 40-7 beat down in 2006.
The Bills visit Soldier Field in Week One
I don’t see it being that bad of a day for the Bills, but I don’t see a win. If the Bills’ front seven can harass Jay Cutler consistently it could be a different story, but the combo of Matt Forte and Brandon Marshall against a still unproven Bills run defense and a secondary missing Jairus Byrd doesn’t bode well. Final Score: Bears 27, Bills 17.
Week 2: Dolphins- The Bills swept Miami last year, and will make it three in a row in the rivalry. My reasoning rests in the unsteady right arm of Ryan Tannehill. Simply put, I don’t think he’s very good. After being shut out in a must win game at The Ralph last year, the Bills front four could have another field day. Final Score: Bills 28, Dolphins 10.
Week 3: Chargers- This game is a tough one for me. The Chargers went on a tear at the end of last year to not only make the playoffs but beat Cincinnati on Wild Card Weekend. Despite that the Bolts still ranked near the bottom of the league in pass defense, and in a coin flip I think the Bills will pull this one out. A cross country flight plays a factor in this one, as the Chargers were inconsistent on the east coast last year. Final Score: Bills 24, Chargers 23.
Week 4: At Texans- This could be the Bills first encounter with old friend Khalil Mack. The Bills will likely face Case Keenum under center, or potentially a rookie QB making his fourth NFL start; good news when you have a front four like Buffalo’s. If the run game does its job, the Bills move to 3-1. Final Score: Bills 24, Texans 13.
Week 5: At Lions- Jim Schwartz makes his return to Detroit. While Matt Stafford and company had the propensity to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory last year, I don’t see them slipping up against Buffalo. Schwartz might have some added insight on his old team, but not enough. Final Score: Lions 27, Bills 17.
Week 6: Patriots- I know the Bills have beaten the Pats once since I was 15. I also realize that that one win was beyond unlikely given the Bills personnel and Tom Brady inexplicably throwing four picks. I’m still taking the Bills. They should’ve won on opening weekend last year, and have come close more than a handful of times in Foxboro. This is the one the Bills finally get from New England without feeling like they stole it. Final Score: Bills 28, Pats 21.
Week 7: Vikings- This is one of the games I label as a “must win” if the Bills want to be taken seriously as a playoff contender. The Vikes have two playmakers on offense in Adrian Peterson and Cordarrelle Patterson, and Patterson was more of a threat on special teams last year. They still don’t have a quarterback and the defense is not what it was two or three years ago. The Bills get it done, but make it way more difficult than it should be. Final Score: Bills 21, Vikings 17.
Week 8: At Jets- The Bills haven’t beaten the Jets in New Jersey since 2009, and have looked particularly awful in their four losses there since. Factor in the arrival of Chris Johnson to the Jets’ backfield, and how awful EJ looked there last year, and it doesn’t bode well this time around either. Final Score: Jets 30, Bills 16.
Week 9: BYE
Week 10: Chiefs- The Kansas City Chiefs were the beneficiaries of Jamaal Charles’ monster season in 2013.
Sean Smith and the Chiefs got a few gifts in 2013
I’m also assuming Andy Reid and friends had a multitude of horse shoes lodged in various places for the first nine weeks of 2013; how else would you explain Jeff Tuel hitting Chiefs CB Sean Smith in the numbers for a 100 yard touchdown? The team is essentially the same outfit the Bills bludgeoned a combined76-24 in 2011 and 2012, with the exception of Alex Smith. The Bills get revenge from last year. Final Score: Bills 27, Chiefs 17.
Week 11: At Dolphins- Barring any trades or major injuries this should be similar to Week 2 in Buffalo, and by that I mean the Dolphins will likely still be starting Ryan Tannehill. It will be interesting to see how the Bills handle the warm temperaturs of Miami in November; the average high in Buffalo on November 13 is 48 degrees, while in Miami it is 82. I’m taking the Bills anyway, in a closer game. Final Score: Bills 17, Dolphins 14. DISCLAIMER: I’m really not a big fan or the Dolphins…if the Bills were an expansion team I’d still take them in both Miami games.
Week 12: Jets- It’s difficult to pick this game given that the Jets still haven’t named Michael Vick or Geno Smith their starter. Based on Vick’s injury history I’m going to say Smith will get the nod for this contest. If that’s the case, it’s good news for the Bills. Smith struggled mightily here last year; while I don’t see him going 8-23 with three picks again, an (hopefully) improved Bills run defense and a front seven that’s still very strong means I don’t see him throwing for 250 either. Final Score: Bills 23, Jets 14.
Week 13: Browns- The annual Bills-Browns game could be very interesting this year. Cleveland has a strong defense, and Brian Hoyer gave them NFL caliber quarterback play last year before being lost for the season. The potential for a rookie quarterback starting for Cleveland makes thise tough. Based on my predictions the Bills would enter this game at (a very generous) 8-3, primed for a letdown. Final Score: Browns 24, Bills 21.
Week 14: At Broncos- The Broncos still have Peyton Manning, last I looked, and Wes Welker is good for about 13 catches and 105 yards with a few touchdowns every time he plays the Bills. Final Score: Broncos 38, Bills 20
Week 15: Packers- Niagara Falls’ own James Starks returns to Western New York, sadly he also brings Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, and Randall Cobb. The Bills can find solace in the fact that Green Bay’s offensive line isn’t stellar, and if the weather does its part to help neutralize Rodgers, they could have a shot. Final Score: Packers 27, Bills 21.
Week 16: At Raiders- The Bills haven’t played in Oakland since 2005. Assuming the Raiders aren’t starting a rookie under center, the Bills will face either Matt McGloin or Matt Schaub, while Trent Edwards holds a clipboard.
The Bills make a trip to Oakland for the first time since 2005.
Run defense could carry more weight than usual if the duo of Maurice Jones-Drew and Darren McFadden are healthy and can channel a little magic from 2010. Final Score: Bills 23, Raiders 17.
Week 17: At Patroits- With the division likely sewn up the Pats could potentially give the Bills a late Christmas gift and rest some starters. Once you remember Bill Belichick still coaches New England that thought quickly goes away, especially if the Bills get a win in Orchard Park. Final Score: Pats 30, Bills 24.
It is highly unlikely that I’m correct on even half of these, but if I manage to go 16 for 16 it would put the Bills in an interesting spot. The team would (hypothetically) finish at 9-7, right in the thick of the AFC playoff picture (remember, San Diego got in at 9-7). It would also be the team’s first winning season since 2004. The Bills would also post a 4-2 mark in the AFC East, which would be the first time the Bills finish with a winning record in the division since 2007. They would also be 8-4 in the AFC, which would help the cause in terms of playoff tiebreakers.
While the likelihood of this season playing out in this fashion is very slim, I’m looking forward to the afternoon of September 7th, and I can’t wait to star the tailgate at the Ralph the next weekend. Go Bills.
If you read Paul Hamilton’s post on WGR 550 today you may have noticed the bevvy of players he referenced. A great many of those were selected in the first two rounds of the draft (as he mentions). After reading his post I wanted to find a way to illustrate exactly what the Sabres hold from the actions they’ve taken over the last few years.
The Sabres hold nine picks in the first and second round of the next two drafts. After the trade deadline the Sabres had sixplayers selected in the first two rounds of last year’s draft. Should the Sabres hold onto all of their picks and not make any trades involving players selected since 2008, the Sabres will close the 2015 draft with 25 players in the system who were selected in the first two rounds of the draft between 2008 and 2015.
That’s a long look at the organization as anyone selected since 2008 are beyond prospect status at this point and there’s no way to tell what Tim Murray’s strategy will be with the pick he possesses between this year and next. It’s a safe bet to say that he won’t sacrifice any of the three firsts he holds next year with his only course of action regarding the 2015 first round being to obtain more selections.
A pair of picks that I’m very interested in are the two at the top of this year’s second round. Buffalo holds the first pick of the second round (31) and Winnipeg’s selection (39)thanks to the deadline day trade of Matt Moulson. They’re high second round picks in what is considered a weak draft, so they may not carry all that much weight. I also think that targeting Thatcher Demko with the 31st pick could be a direction the Sabres go. I’d also be interested to see if either, or both, of those picks could be used to sweeten the pot on a draft day hockey trade if Murray is able to find a dance partner.
What I think is important to keep in mind about this – Hamilton touches on this when he refers to how envious other organizations are of the Sabres – is that the doom and gloom surrounding the state of the organization is somewhat misplaced. The Sabres have a ton of assets and while those selected prior to 2010 may by closer to veteran than prospect status, the organization’s roots run deep. This is not a team that has been spread thin by buying rentals and temporarily patching weak spots. While the holes in the current roster run rampant, the framework to fix them are in hand and will start to be acquired as soon as June 28.
As I said, I wanted to illustrate the arsenal of high picks and assets Hamilton mentioned in his post. The fun starts at the draft in Philly and will continue through to next season. If used properly, the assets listed below could significantly speed up the rebuild.
The Sabres have a bunch of questions that need to at least begin to be addressed this offseason and next season. While everyone focuses on the draft and who is going to put the puck in the net for last year’s worst offensive team, many have forgotten that the Sabres are (once again) without a captain.
There are a couple basic things that I believe the organization should (or should not) do when considering who will be the next person to wear the “C”.
First (and most important) is that the next captain must come from in-house. The cons far outweigh the pros when it comes to naming a player who was just acquired as the captain. The most obvious issue is that it places undue pressure on the new player. No matter the age or experience of a player, when someone is traded to a new team, or signs with a new team as a free agent, they want to make a good first impression. On top of trying to fit in with new teammates and a new system on the ice, the player is faced with trying to acclimate to a new city off the ice. Throw in moving a family and all that comes with it into a new town and the player is juggling all he can handle.
Another concern is that naming a player that is new to the team as a captain is an indictment of the leadership qualities (or lack thereof) of your current roster. By giving the captaincy to a newly acquired player you’re basically telling the 23 guys on your roster, “I don’t think any of you are capable enough or ready enough to assume responsibility for this team.” Given the state of the Sabres’ roster, I’d advise against doing that. Continue reading →
Two in the Box 