Tim Murray may have inherited a clunker of a roster from Darcy Regier, but the organization still had good bones despite the kamikaze job Regier did on the roster prior to his departure. Continue reading
How can the Sabres hit the cap floor
There’s been quite a hubbub over Tim Murray having the capability to get the Sabres to the cap floor during free agency. It’s a concept that Murray has expressed his annoyance with publicly. Frankly, the worry that has been expressed over getting Buffalo above the league-mandated $51 million cap floor seems a bit overblown. And when the GM whose proven that he operates on a very even, analytical keel with all of his team’s roster moves has such little worry over a topic, there probably shouldn’t be much concern given by fans and media alike.
Buffalo currently has 37 NHL contracts on their books – not counting contracts like that of Linus Ullmark which haven’t started yet – with just over $38 million committed to the cap according to CapGeek. The work required to get to the cap floor will be markedly easier once Murray works out the contracts for Tyler Ennis and Marcus Foligno. Assuming Ennis gets just north of what Cody Hodgson received, he’ll be looking at roughly $4.5 million per year. Foligno might wind up in the neighborhood of $2.5 million on a bridge deal. That covers $7 million in space right off the bat.
Murray has not only insisted that the Sabres will not only spend in free agency, but work to find veterans who are capable of providing quality leadership to Buffalo’s rising prospects. Steve Ott and Matt Moulson have received the most press and attention due to their time spent in Buffalo but Brian Gionta has also been mentioned as an early target for the Sabres as free agency is set to open. Since I’m not in Buffalo’s front office I don’t know who exactly the Sabres will focus on. However, I do know that a pair of contracts valued at $5.5 and $3.5 million on two forwards (or another combination that reaches $9m in cap spending) brings the Sabres to $47 million towards the cap. Continue reading
Who poses a threat to Mission McDavid in 2015?
With the 2014 NHL Draft just a few days away, the Sabres will be making the second highest selection in franchise history that should serve as a major piece of their current rebuild. While the Sabres’ 30th place finish this year ensured them a top-two selection at the draft, the real prize sits atop the 2015 NHL Draft when Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel are set to be picked first and second (not necessarily in that order).
While Tim Murray hasn’t come out and said it, the Sabres aren’t expected to compete for much more than the right to pick one of those two elite talents as yet another building block on the way to a Stanley Cup. Murray and the Sabres are in a good position for 2015 as they hold three picks in the first round, giving them that much more of a chance to score the first pick. While St. Louis’ pick (acquired as part of the Ryan Miller trade) won’t have any sort of effect on Buffalo’s lottery chances, it’s possible that the Islanders’ pick does provide some additional support. Ideally the Islanders would suffer through an ugly season and give the Sabres a massive boost towards snagging first overall. The worst case scenario is that they sneak into the playoffs and give the Sabres two picks in the bottom 15 selections of the round.
There won’t be any change made to the NHL Draft Lottery for next season, so the 30th place club will have a 25% chance to get the first pick with the odds decreasing with each subsequent finisher. So the Sabres could wind up in the exact position they’re in now. No matter how teams are posturing today doesn’t prevent five clubs from finishing between 25 and 30 in the standings and holding the top odds for a very valuable lottery.
I’ve taken the time to run through each club and give my opinion on the current trend they’re following (up, down or neutral), if they own their pick next season and the threat they are to wind up in the lottery. The lottery threat scale goes from one-to-five, with one being the most likely a team is to wind up at the bottom of the league and the top of the draft. Each team’s trend is more subjective as many teams were considered neutral despite having very different circumstances.
Buffalo’s own ranks would give them a downward (perhaps neutral) trend with a level one threat as a major player in the lottery. The Sabres will certainly make some moves this offseason but I don’t foresee anything on the horizon that will drastically turn the team’s fortunes around. The Sabres will certainly be a player for the first pick next year, although the odds certainly weigh against them landing McDavid. Continue reading
Upgrades along the line set Bills up for offensive success
You might say that everything has been laid at EJ Manuel’s feet for the upcoming season, but that’s what everyone is saying. Mainly because it’s the truth.
The message was made pretty clear at the draft with the trade up to select Sammy Watkins and the additional investment in offensive players like Bryce Brown, Mike Williams and even Anthony Dixon. Albeit, Dixon is more of a special teams addition than anything else. Where Whaley really invested this offseason was along the line. While adding Watkins and Williams adds even more depth and talent to the receiving corps, the line could see major changes take hold. Since the Bills are boosting their offensive line-up, expect that oddsmakers will surely consider them as a contenders with official NFL betting lines moving in their favor this season, having fans and fantasy pickers taking notice.
Between the signing of Chris Williams, the expected return of a healthy Chris Hairston and draft picks Cyrus Kouandjio, Cyril Richardson and Seantrel Henderson, the Bills two-deep could undergo some serious changes. Continue reading
Looking back at the Draft: 2009
If 2007 and 2008 offered the richest discussion regarding this practice, I’d say that 2009 (and 2010) offer the most ambiguity. It certainly speaks more to the 2010 draft than 2009, but there are a number of players still working through their respective team’s development ladder from these two drafts. That makes things difficult as the value of those players hasn’t really been established yet.
So bear that in mind as there are a few names that may seem out of place given their current impact on the league. Also feel free to share thoughts on picks that you don’t see as accurate. These posts are meant to spur discussion, not serve as a gospel. The 2009 draft will serve as the final one I examine as the 2010 draft is still fresh enough to have a great many picks still in limbo. Continue reading
Looking back at the Draft: 2008
As I stated in my write-up of the 2007 Draft, this area of the decade sits in a good spot for this practice. A lot of the names in this draft are really starting to come out of their shells in terms of development and it opens the door for some interesting conversations on who should go where.
1. Tampa Bay Lightning: Steven Stamkos
He was the first pick for a reason and I don’t see any reason why Tampa would change their minds.
2. Los Angeles Kings: Drew Doughty
My has this pick worked out for the Kings. Doughty could easily be considered the most valuable player in this draft. While he didn’t overtake Stamkos in my book, there’s no one close to unseating him at two.
3. Atlanta/Winnipeg: Alex Pietrangelo (STL, 4) – Original Pick: Zach Bogosian
Piertangelo has turned into a phenomenal two-way defender who eats minutes in massive chunks. He can face down with a team’s top threats while still contributing on the offensive end.
4. St. Louis Blues: Erik Karlsson (OTT, 15) – Original Pick: Alex Pietrangelo
Karlsson isn’t the player that Pietrangelo is. He is, however, a dynamic offensive threat. While the Blues aren’t starved for scoring, he would be a terrific addition to their roster.
5. Toronto Maple Leafs (from NYI): Jordan Eberle (EDM, 22) – Original Pick: Luke Schenn
The Leafs have managed to build out a solid first line (center not withstanding) but still could use stability in the middle of their lineup. Eberle would serve as a dangerous piece in Toronto’s middle six. Continue reading
What to Expect from Sabres’ Potential Picks
With the World Cup officially kicked off and taking over the country’s sporting conscience for the next three or four weeks (or, at least until the US is eliminated) the NHL Draft is now less than two weeks away and rapidly approaching. The Sabres, as everyone knows by now, hold the 2nd overall selection and a pair of 2nd round selections. With news that Tim Murray is looking to acquire another 1st round pick the team should have ample opportunity to find young talent to help speed up the rebuild.
Rightly so, the 2nd overall selection is garnering the most chatter amongst fans and media alike. While people have every right to be optimistic about the prospect of grabbing a top end talent with the 2nd selection, many members of the MSM and fan base think that drafting 2nd is a lay up, and are under the impression that whoever the Sabres tab as their selection (and defacto new face of the franchise) will single-handedly lead the team out of the abyss and one day have their number hanging next to Gare, LaFontaine, and the French Connection.
While I’m all for optimism, I think it’s best to rein in expectations just a bit. This is not to say I don’t think the team will end up with a very talented player, in fact I’m very confident that Tim Murray and his staff will make the right choice at number two. That being said every draft slot has its fair share of Patrik Stefans and Brian Lawtons; nothing is guaranteed.
It is widely known that the NHL Draft more resembles the MLB Draft rather than the NFL or NBA when it comes to draft picks actually having impactful careers, and that average career numbers decrease significantly with each pick and round. The drop is obviously not as precipitous from pick to pick in the first round when compared to picks in the second round and beyond, but it is still apparent.
It is expected that either Sam Reinhart or Sam Bennett will be Buffalo Sabres come June 27, so let’s look at forwards selected in the top five. When looking at the top five picks in the draft dating back to 1970, forwards that were selected first overall had an average career of 840 games and put up just under 800 points. Compare that with forwards selected 5th overall; those players averaged 619 games and 430 points, a career that is over three season shorter, on average, than those picked just four spots higher. Those who went 2nd overall played an average of 755 games and amassed 616 points. Continue reading
Looking back at the Draft: 2007
This is part four in a series of posts looking back at the NHL Draft between 2004 and 2009
This might be my favorite draft of the six that I worked through. There seemed to be a few more big moves than the others I looked through. There seemed to be a number of seriously talented players lurking in the middle of this draft which made slotting them in properly a challenge in many cases.
The quality likely relates to the draft class all being in their mid-20s and at or near their peak in terms of talent. The talent pool of picks beyond the first round was also a bit deeper than other drafts which made the exercise more interesting.
Murray will have few partners in his quest to get back into the first round
Tim Murray dropped a bombshell at the GM meetings when he told Pierre LeBrun that he wants another first round selection in the upcoming draft and that he’s willing to take on salary in order to accomplish that goal.
Perhaps it wasn’t a bombshell so much as an indication that Murray plans on being busy ahead of and through this month’s draft. Here’s his quote from LeBrun’s column:
“I can’t imagine I would trade the second overall pick,” Murray said. “I’d like to get a couple of more first-round picks and I have those three third-rounders to us. I certainly know you can’t trade a second for a first, but you might take some money back in a deal to do that and I do have to get to the [cap] floor. There are different ways to get to the floor so I’m exploring all that.”
How Are The Bills Shaping Up?
The new NFL season will be upon us before we know it, with Organized Team Activities already underway. This will be an exciting time for Bills fans, as the team has slowly but surely been (hopefully) heading in the right direction. There should be some star players back to their usual selves after last season, with mainly CJ Spiller in mind, as well as an arsenal of new weapons for second year quarterback EJ Manuel.
With the latest odds at http://www.bettingsports.com/nfl/ the Bills seem to be a ‘middle of the road’ bet in terms of Super Bowl chances. The truth is, they will have to first concentrate on beating the New England Patriots to the AFC East championship, something which, although daunting after the last few years, is becoming more and more realistic.
So what’s new?
The Bills traded up in the 2014 NFL Draft to land some true star power in Clemson wide receiver Sammy Watkins. With both size and speed, Watkins is the sort of player that can really take the top off a defense and open up opportunities for his teammates. It was definitely a risk to spend so much to get Watkins, but the Bills needed to provide the offense with a spark, and reinvigorate the fans.
The Bills also added some much needed O-line depth in the draft with Cyrus Kouandijo, Cyril Richardson and Seantrel Henderson being added. If Kouandijo and Henderson can overcome troubles (injuries and character red flags respectively), they could prove to be steals. Buffalo also took CB Ross Cockrell, LB Preston Brown and LB Randell Johnson with their remaining picks.
The Star Power
The truth is, if the Bills can gel as a team and pick up a bit of luck with injuries, they have the potential to go far. CJ Spiller can be a downright beast on his day, but struggled through the 2013 season with nagging injuries. He and Watkins could be enough to give any defense fits, and quarterback EJ Manuel could profit from that.
On the defensive side, the D-line looks good on paper, with tackle Marcell Dareus and end Mario Williams providing extreme talent that could hold up against anybody. Young players anchor the back seven, with linebacker Kiko Alonso already a rising star after his rookie season, being named in the NFL’s top 100 players list and cornerback Stephon Gilmore ready for a breakout season.
The fact for the Bills is that a talented young team is being built, and 2014 has the potential to be a great year.
Two in the Box 