Over Thought: The Miller Drama Endures

Overthought is a semi-regular series that takes a look at some of the more interesting and notable tidbits shared by Elliotte Friedman in his weekly 32 Thoughts columnEach edition will feature some unique thoughts on the state of the Sabres or league as a whole before digging in on some of the notes from Freidman’s weekly column.

This week’s 32 Thoughts was a bit shorter than usual, so it’s not overflowing with threads to pull on, but three are still a few good tidbits. Friedman starts the column with a deep dive on the potential growth in the salary cap. He points out that not all of the league’s teams may be willing to spend up to a cap that’s north of $100 million per year, raising the question of what the league would do if they reach a cap ceiling that only a handful of teams would be willing and capable of spending to. 

Assume for a moment that figure it $110 million as Freidman suggests. If only a few teams spend to that limit, the league could quickly be back in a situation akin to the days before the 2004-05 lockout. If the league’s parity was threatened by the ever increasing cap, I’d like to know if the league would need to take action to either depress the cap ceiling or create another function to adjust for smaller revenue clubs. It’s a lot easier to come up with plans that help clubs be more competitive in the cap landscape – the proposed tax adjustment comes to mind – so I’ll be interested to see how this all develops. 

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Sabres, Adams Inaction in the Face of A Lost Season is Damning

Tristan Jarry was the latest victim of the NHL waiver wire and the third notable move made by Pittsburgh Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas this year. Meanwhile, the team sitting last in the Eastern Conference has yet to make any meaningful change to their roster. 

The Penguins have struggled to keep their head above water this year, sitting five points out of a playoff spot while sporting a conference-worst -36 goal differential. After missing the playoffs last season, the Penguins are entering a transitional period as the glory years led by Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang wind down. Yet, despite their struggles to stay in the Eastern Conference playoff race, the Penguins and Dubas have taken action, bringing in Phillip Tomasino and dealing Lars Eller in November and now waiving Jarry after the netminder’s subpar play continued to haunt the team. 

The same cannot be said of Kevyn Adams and the Sabres, whose most notable accomplishments this season include a disastrous press conference, a 13-game losing streak and a dreadful loss a day after the owner joined the team on the road trip to reinforce the club’s belief in the roster. It’s become quite evident that the answer is, in fact, not in the room, yet Adams has not made a single change to the roster he constructed. 

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The Instigator Podcast 10.13 – Changes in Montreal and COVID Concerns for the Olympics

It was a huge news week in the NHL as the Montreal Canadiens fired Marc Bergevin, cleaned house with the rest of their front office and brought in Jeff Gorton to head up the hockey department. We discuss everything surrounding the moves and the difficulty in Montreal continuing to maintain hiring French speaking executives and coaches. Elsewhere, the Penguins have new owners in Fenway Sports Group and more COVID cases may just threaten the NHL’s ability to send players to the Olympics.

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The Instigator Podcast 9.9 – Burke and Hextall Hired in Pittsburgh

We recorded this episode on Tuesday and it felt like there was two weeks worth of news that broke over the past 48 hours in the NHL. From the offside review debacle in Columbus and John Tortorella’s benching of Patrik Laine to the hiring of Brian Burke and Ron Hextall in Pittsburgh, it’s been a busy start to the week. We explore the job that faces Burke and Hextall with the Penguins while also discussing the heat being applied to Jim Benning in Vancouver.

We close the show touching on Buffalo’s COVID postponement and just how impactful the delay could be on their season.

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The Instigator Podcast 9.37 – Staal Trade and What’s Next for the Sabres

The Eric Staal deal came down about 24 hours after we finished recording our previous episode. So we play a little catchup this week in breaking down the first trade of Kevyn Adams’ tenure. We also touch on the moves being made by the Pittsburgh Penguins, the difficult situation in Arizona and even the hiring of Mike Weber and Adam Mair in Rochester.

Ranking the Potential NHL Lottery Winners

The NHL’s second draft lottery drops tonight with the eight eliminated Stanley Cup Qualifier teams holding equal 12.5% odds to land the first overall selection.

Maybe it was just me, but the minute the league announced that they’d be using placeholder spots for teams in the qualifying round, I knew one would wind up winning a top three pick. That feeling of inevitability wasn’t due to suspicion of foul play or some sort of fixed lottery but simply from knowing this league has perfected over complicating practically everything.

In and of itself, awarding lottery odds to eliminated teams wasn’t a poor choice. Given the gift on hindsight, the league probably would’ve been smarter to do a single drawing with the original odds once the qualifying round was done. Splitting the lottery was an odd choice which really only opened the door for complaints from fanbases (and probably some GMs) around the league. It will only become more unpopular if one of the stronger teams in tonight’s drawing wins the first pick.

The drawing itself if rife with potential controversy. You can expect a wave of negative reactions if Toronto, Pittsburgh or Edmonton win this evening. Even the Rangers, fresh off picking second last year after some lottery luck, would be a fairly unpopular result. There are also some very obvious Sabres-related pitfalls that could come out of tonight. A Leafs win would be, let’s say, inconvenient. As would a Panthers win. Really any Eastern Conference win would create challenges for the Sabres. With that in mind, let’s rank the potential lottery winners based on how it could affect the Sabres and though the additional lens of my personal preferences. Continue reading

The Instigator Podcast 8.11 – Zero Hour on Moves Approaching

Coming back from Sweden in the midst of a five-game losing streak, the need for change is looking more and more apparent for the Sabres. Trade rumors are swirling and we run through some of the options available to the Sabres when it comes to targets Jason Botterill could bring in. We also touch on some of the big news items from around the league including Sidney Crosby mulling surgery for a sports hernia and the Kings searching for a way out from under Ilya Kovalchuk’s contract.

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Over-Thought: Defenseman Market is Starting to Sizzle

The Sabres have gotten off to a better start than I have this year when it comes to recapping 31 Thoughts. But I’m back on the wagon for Sabres After Dark and there are a few juicy tidbits in this week’s edition. Including trade whispers related to both Buffalo’s and Pittsburgh’s bluelines. Continue reading

Over-Thought: Offseason Coming into Shape

As the Stanley Cup Finals creep closer, as does the draft and offseason. That means teams who missed the playoffs or those eliminated early are gearing up for roster changes. The most recent edition of 31 Thoughts had plenty of tidbits on those potential moves and in the newest OT, I take a look at a few that stood out.

If you haven’t read last week’s 31 Thoughts you can catch it here. Continue reading

Could First Round Exits Offer Sabres a Trade Partner?

The startling reality that faces the Sabres after yet another season without the playoffs is the club needs yet another round of big roster changes after their maneuvering over the past two summers has gone for naught.

Jason Botterill and Phil Housley’s first year saw ten new faces brought to Buffalo. They were just shy of repeating that figure again this season. While it’s not out of the question that the team they inherited was already heading to the basement before the pair stepped in. The franchise was already suffering in the wake of below average drafting and owned a handful of bad contracts while lacking depth. That they wound up finishing worse than Tim Murray and Dan Bylsma’s final year is perhaps more of an inevitability than a surprise. Regardless, Housley and Botterill will own the results of the last two seasons. It will all rest on Botterill’s feet and it remains to be seen whether he’ll be around to see the team climb back to respectability.

That leaves him will the difficult task of overhauling his roster for the third-straight summer. Last year’s overhaul brought only a minute improvement in the standings, buoyed by the 10-game win streak but destroyed by the January-to-April collapse. Does he have another trick up his sleeve, or will Botterill be resigned to a more conventional path to improvement?

Botterill’s best opportunity for unearthing talent at discount prices may come from targeting the teams run out of the first round of the playoffs. Teams like Pittsburgh who were frustrated at their early exit, or the Jets and Lightning whose cap situations will likely require trades to be made. Between tight cap situations and disappointing exits, there could be room for the Sabres to pounce. Continue reading