Kevyn Adams

Adams Adds Another Deadline Surprise

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My how things can change in an instant. 

Most of the reporting surrounding Kevyn Adams and this year’s trade deadline was low key. The Sabres were expected to send out their pending unrestricted free agents, but it seemed any significant work would have to wait until the summer. 

Then Wednesday afternoon, Adams swapped Casey Mittelstadt for Bowen Byram and dropping the biggest bomb of the 2024 deadline season. 

Much of this post had been written at that point, with a hope that Adams would be able to pull off a big deal by Friday. The combination of cap troubles around the league and difficult fits seemed like that might be a longshot. even if the hope of a deadline surprise always lurks. Any deal Adams would have made outside of selling Zemgus Girgensons, Erik Johnson and Kyle Okposo would’ve been a surprise addition in some way. Though I’m not sure anyone was truly prepared for the magnitude of the trade he made with the Avalanche.  

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The Instigator Podcast 12.26 – Targeting Mission: Western Conference Edition

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We thought we’d try something different with this week’s episode. Rather than go on about another squandered pair of points, we dive into the Western Conference to come up with players the Sabres could target in a trade. We touch on each team in the West, highlighting players that range from pie-in-the-sky dreams, to valuable fits deeper in the lineup.

Don’t Forget the Summer Goalie Market When Questioning the Sabres Moves

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The season may only be four games old, but the Sabres’ 1-3 start has put some of the fans’ biggest offseason concerns in the spotlight.

Buffalo’s decision to leave the roster largely untouched and lean on their unproven trio of goaltenders was chief among the offseason debate in Sabres circles. Leaning on a roster that made the Sabres the third highest scoring team in the NHL wasn’t a terrible choice when you dig into the data. Kevyn Adams has continued to lock up the core of his roster and it was those players – most notably Tage Thompson (47 goals), Dylan Cozens (31 goals) and Rasmus Dahlin (73 points) – who pushed the Sabres to the top of the league’s scoring race. The choices in goal were a greater gamble. 

Eric Comrie and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen’s struggles last season underscored the position that likely kept the Sabres out of the playoffs. While Devon Levi has shown promise (and was stout in Tuesday’s win over Tampa), handing the keys to a 21-year old with seven games of NHL experience is unprecedented. If there was one position where fans would have agreed with more tangible reinforcement, it would have been in net. The league’s goalie market from the summer made that proposition much harder to accomplish than maybe some assume. 

Connor Hellebuyck was far and away the best goaltender available over the summer. There were widespread reports that the Jets were shopping the former Vezina winner, though a deal never materialized. Hellebuyck’s contract status almost certainly played a role in the lack of a trade. While Hellebuyck was a goaltender I felt could push the Sabres to a playoff berth, I would not have pursued him with a lengthy contract extension attached. Now that he’s signed a seven-year, $59.5 million extension, it would be hard to see the logic in acquiring that sort of player given the faith the organization has in Levi. 

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Sabres Trade Tiers

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Going back to the spring, many Sabres fans have been waiting on a trade that hasn’t come. 

As Buffalo morphed into a playoff contender, there was a growing expectation that Kevyn Adams would make some deals to round out his roster. But his action at the deadline was more measured than some may have guessed, and he completed the offseason without any notable deals being made (save for dealing Ilya Lyubushkin to alleviate a numbers crunch on the blueline). Victor Olofsson is on record saying he was prepared to be moved, but no deal materialized for him, a goaltender or any other position which could have helped the Sabres take the next step to the playoffs. 

It’s understandable that Adams hasn’t been in a rush to shake up his group. The forward group is brimming with young talent while a pair of first overall picks anchor the blueline. Buffalo boasts a core many teams can only dream of. The need to materially alter this group is reserved to maybe two or three spots across the entire roster. Unlike previous years during this decade-long rebuild, the team isn’t in a position where they’re lacking depth on the NHL roster or in their pipeline. It’s a luxury which will put them in a position of strength when the time comes to take a big swing. 

And that time is approaching. 

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Hellebuyck is the Rare Goalie Worth the Acquisition Cost

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Finding an upgrade in goal is perhaps the most pressing need of the offseason for Kevyn Adams and the Buffalo Sabres. The sting of missing the playoffs by such a narrow margin is only that much more frustrating when you think of the number of games that slipped away due to leaky goals and below average goaltending.

Devon Levi certainly didn’t wilt under the spotlight after making his NHL debut, and he’ll have the inside track at one of the NHL roster spots come training camp. Who the team chooses to play in tandem with him will be an extremely important decision. It seems unfair to expect Levi to take the bulk of the starts at just 21. Not only would it be unfair to him to add that much more pressure to the situation, but the team would be asking him to take on a workload (45-plus starts) he was ever asked to handle between college or junior.

The incumbents, Eric Comrie and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, provide some insurance for the club, though neither truly impressed last year. At even strength, the pair finished with a -5.6 and -7.1 goals saved above expected, respectively. To expect either to share any notable level of workload with Levi – let alone starter’s duties – would be a significant gamble for a team with playoff aspirations in 2023-24.

Assuming the team agrees that neither Luukkonen or Comrie have the ability to provide Levi with a stable partner, they’ll need to mine free agency or the trade market for a suitable option. Perhaps the most notable name that has been floated is Connor Hellebuyck, the perennial Vezina candidate with one more year left on his contract at $6.16 million cap hit. Hellebuyck’s rumored availability has sparked a fair bit of debate over his contract status, workload and acquisition cost.

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The Instigator Podcast 11.15 – Are the Sabres Ready for the Next Step?

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The Sabres return home from a West Coast swing with a trio of key victories. They’ve vaulted themselves into the Eastern Conference wild card race and look poised to take a significant step forward in the ongoing rebuild. The team’s impressive run off their previous losing streak hasn’t just put them back within sight of a playoff position, but it has reset expectations within the fanbase. As the NHL’s highest scoring team with a handful of individual award candidates, the question has become whether or not it’s time for Kevyn Adams to take the next step in building his roster. We look at what that could mean for the Sabres and even offer up a few names which would provide an opportunity for improvement in both the short and long term.

The Instigator Podcast 11.10 – Taking Listener Questions Before Twitter Dies

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We were overdue for a listener Q&A so we opened up the replies maybe one last time) to gather some talking points for this week’s show. Topics include when Kevyn Adams will be moved to make a trade, who might be the first player dealt, some thoughts on Peyton Krebs and which goalie number is the best one. Thanks to everyone who turned in a question for this week’s show.

You can catch The Instigator Podcast on these platforms any virtually everywhere else you find your podcasts:
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The Instigator Podcast 10.45 – When do the Sabres Go for It featuring Chad & Anthony of Expected Buffalo

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Chad and Anthony from Expected Buffalo join the show for another roundtable discussion. This time we talk about when the Sabres will be ready to take the next big step in their rebuild and when the right time for it will be. We talk about how this summer has helped shape the next step in their rebuild and look ahead to whether or not next summer will be the time that Kevyn Adams starts making big splashes. We wrap up by touching on the prospects who could be most impacted by future acquisitions and even toss out a few favorites we’d like to see the Sabres target.

You can catch The Instigator Podcast on these platforms any virtually everywhere else you find your podcasts:
iTunes
Spotify
Spreaker
Audacy
Stitcher
iHeartRadio
TuneIn

The Instigator Podcast 10.35 – Sabres 2022-23 Season Recap

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Another season is in the books and we look back at the way the Sabres played over the course of 2022-23 and what it means for them going forward. While we don’t assign grades to any individual, we break down each of the team’s position groups to see where the bright spots were and where the Sabres need to improve most.

We wrap up the show with a brief conversation on the NHL playoffs and which early storylines in the postseason stand out most to us.

Offseason Offers the Sabres a Path to Improve in Goal

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As the season heads into its final month, one of the biggest holes on Buffalo’s roster for the offseason is in net.

The Sabres are currently set to the summer with no goaltenders under contract and a lot of questions over what the future in the crease looks like. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is a restricted free agent and is the only sure thing the Sabres have in terms of playing games in either Buffalo or Rochester in 2022-23. Beyond that, it’s a crapshoot.

Buffalo will need to acquire a minimum of two goaltenders this summer. One to play the lion’s share of the games in Buffalo and the other to share time in Rochester (ideally with one of Buffalo’s promising young collegiate prospects).

Any assumption that Luukkonen should be stepping in as Buffalo’s starter for the 22-23 season is premature to me. Luukkonen has played only 13 NHL games between two seasons and he suffered an injury in each of those runs. Even taking into account the poor play in front of him in Rochester, his resume isn’t that of a goalie who is ready to step into an NHL starter’s job. I think it would be far more appropriate for Luukonen to play somewhere in the neighborhood of 30-to-35 games behind a steadier veteran presence.

Bringing Craig Anderson back has been a popular refrain as he’s offered a reliable option since returning from injury. There’s a reason the Sabres odds against Winnipeg tonight are only +140 at Betway and not much steeper. There’s also a reason that the over/under of 6.5 for tonight’s game is a good bet of late. Anderson has been a big reason the Sabres vibes have been so good. However, his numbers this year are still quite average. He’s sporting a -5 goals saved above expected and his .901 save percentage falls in line with the downward trend of his last few full seasons in Ottawa.

Consider as well, he is 41 years old and missed a significant portion of the season to injury. Does he fit the profile of a goalie who can help the Sabres take the next step?

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