Author: Chris Ostrander

Sabres still in a position of power despite losing lottery

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Given that the Sabres had a 75% chance of not winning the draft lottery last night, there shouldn’t be much surprise or disappointment in Buffalo receiving the second overall pick. My disappointment lies in the two posts I wrote on Monday that needed to be drastically altered because of the result.

The consensus on this year’s draft is that the top four or five prospects are at a level above most others in the draft. This also happens to be a draft that will differ from the last two or three that preceded it in that there is no clear cut favorite to be picked first overall. Rather, the top four or five players are the consensus favorites to be selected at the top with the rest of the first round being described with any number of synonyms for average.

While the Sabres missed out on having their pick of the litter, they’re truly not at a disadvantage having to pick second. In fact, you could argue that they’re in a better situation but I’m not about to try and justify why not picking first could possibly not be the best possible scenario. I will say that the Sabres are not hamstrung for not having won the lottery. Perhaps the best possible scenario would have seen the Islanders win the lottery, but having the Panthers leapfrog the Sabres won’t have a resounding affect on the direction the Sabres go with their selection.

It would appear as if Barrie defenseman Aaron Ekblad, Kingston forward Sam Bennett and Kootenay center Sam Reinhart have established themselves as the top three prospects in the draft. Although Leon Draisaitl is considered to be right there with Reinhart and possibly even Bennett at the top.

Tim Murray repeatedly said that he is going to take the best player available regardless of position. Reading those tea leaves could point you in a number of different directions. While the Panthers aren’t guaranteed to take a particular player, the Sabres decision won’t be altered at two. In fact, the Sabres could very well end up with the exact player they wanted at one even after the Panthers pick, something that Murray confirmed last night. Continue reading →

Thoughts on changing the NHL Draft Lottery

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As the talent at the top of the NHL Draft continues to rise each year the topic of tanking to ensure higher odds at the first overall pick is becoming a hot topic. While the current system is designed to give the 30th place finisher the best opportunity to pick first, there is a better chance that team picks second given the odds.

With next year’s draft featuring a pair of generational talents at the top of the prospect pool, rumors and chatter have abounded regarding change to the lottery system in hopes of curbing the practice of tanking.

There doesn’t seem to be a good system that is strictly based off the order of finish in the standings. The system floated by Elliotte Friedman a few weeks back included a few nuances that wouldn’t only decrease the 30th place finisher’s chances but take into account a number of seasons as opposed to the one that had just passed.

However, it’s a fairly nuanced system that points towards even more complicated and convoluted systems for determining the first overall pick while preventing teams from taking nosedives to the bottom of the standings.

One idea I’m particularly fond of is a version of something similar I heard on NHL Network Radio a while back. If I’m not mistaken the original thought came from Mike Brophy, so direct the appropriate praise to him for the genesis of this idea.

The plan would be to still reward the worst teams with the highest picks in each year’s draft. You can’t have parity and turnover within the league unless you follow such a pattern. It also ensures that bad teams will improve – or should improve if you’re the Oilers – by picking high. In a league driven by revenues, perennial basement dwellers will eventually see lots of red ink if they can’t bring in players to overhaul their roster.

My plan would include the league’s five worst teams – although this could be expanded if necessary – in a competition to determine who wins the first overall pick. I stress the term win because this would be a standings-based competition that would be evaluated on each team’s performance after a certain point in the year. This way you can’t simply hit the brakes on your year, sell off your assets and wait to see what the lottery balls do for you once the season wraps. Meanwhile, if you finish 30th you’re still assured to draft high enough to get some help. Continue reading →

Poll: Who will win the draft lotto? The Sabres or the field?

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The 2014 NHL Draft Lottery is tonight and after 82 games of suffering the Sabres hold the most lottery balls.

Buffalo will have a 25% chance at retaining the first overall pick with the rest of the non-playoff teams making up the other 75% of the chances. If you’re playing along at home that means that the Sabres have a better chance at picking second than they do of picking first.

The precise draft odds are on the internet now that the NHL released all of the pertinent information for tonight’s drawing, and this is how the breakdown looks for the 14 teams who missed the playoffs:

Buffalo Sabres – 25.0%

Florida Panthers – 18.8%

Edmonton Oilers – 14.2%

Calgary Flames – 10.7%

New York Islanders – 8.1%

Vancouver Canucks – 6.2%

Carolina Hurricanes – 4.7%

Toronto Maple Leafs – 3.6%

Winnipeg Jets – 2.7%

Anaheim Ducks (from Ottawa) – 2.1%

New Jersey Devils – 1.5%

Nashville Predators – 1.1%

Phoenix Coyotes – 0.8%

Washington Capitals – 0.5%

Once again, the Sabres hold the most lottery balls due to their 30th place finish, but they still face long odds on actually keeping that pick. For example, the Panthers, Oilers and Flames have a combined 43.7% chance of winning the lottery, so the Sabres aren’t a shoo-in for the first pick just yet.

Of course, if the Sabres lose the lottery they only drop one spot in the draft order. So the Sabres are guaranteed to pick no worse than second overall this year. It’s not a bad consolation prize, particularly in a draft where there isn’t necessarily a clear cut number one prospect.

Regardless of how things transpire tonight the Sabres are all but assured to end up with either Ekblad, Bennett or Reinhart.

I think I’m going to go with The Field in this case, but who are you taking? The Sabres or The Field.

NFTA can keep pace with Canalside development with a minor alteration

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Progress at Canalside is expected to be in high gear this summer as HARBORcenter continues to rise at a breakneck pace and construction on the faux canals should recommence now that Pike has taken over. One Canalside is almost fully open for business and the entertainment district is truly taking shape.

While the grassy, empty parcels wait for private investors to dive in, another opportunity continues to be missed as the Metro Rail trains cruise through each day.

Use this as a guide, not a template for the idea I’m floating.

The hideous red arch that spanned the rail line was taken down last year and additional work on the former Aud Station has taken place lately as the NFTA took the necessary steps to bring the rail line and stations up to par around the burgeoning district. However, there’s so much more they could be doing.

As the project to return cars to Main Street continues to inch towards the waterfront, the NFTA is seeing major changes made to the antiquated décor that surrounds each of their stations in the free zone. However, slapping a fresh coat of paint on the current Erie Canal Harbor Station is simply lipstick on a pig. Continue reading →

Decisions in the crease could be looming for Sabres

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A number of moves made by Darcy Regier and Tim Murray were done to prepare the Sabres for life after Ryan Miller. One player that was acquired (Matt Hackett) may find himself pushed out of the Buffalo goaltending situation.

Regier’s drafting of LinusUllmark and Cal Petersen in consecutive seasons along with the acquisitions of Hackett and MichalNeuvirth has bolstered Buffalo’s depth in the crease with an eye on the future. The Sabres have drafted a goaltender in each of the last three drafts and have eight goaltenders in various levels of the pipeline.

Could Andrey Makarov’s arrival push Matt Hackett out of the organization?

While Jhonas Enroth and Neuvirth are expected to carry the load into the 2014-15 season, the landscape behind them could be in for a change depending on the direction Murray wants to go. Both Enroth and Neuvirth have one more year left on their respective deals before reaching unrestricted free agency. Nathan Lieuwen has one more year until his entry level deal expires while both Matt Hackett and Connor Knapp hit restricted free agency this summer.

Andrey Makarov is the only signed goaltender with significant time on his deal; he doesn’t become a restricted until after the 2015-16 season. Cal Petersen and Linus Ullmark are both unsigned with Petersen a few years away as he prepares to head to Notre Dame and Ullmark creeping towards a contract with superb play in the SHL.

The situation for the big club is all but set. Enroth and Neuvirth will be Buffalo’s starters entering next season and it’s conceivable that they both receive extensions next summer as the rebuilding process continues. It’s the depth chart below them that could be due for a shake up. Continue reading →

One night in Smashville

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I was lucky enough to make a trip to Nashville this past weekend to not only take in the city but also attend a Nashville Predators game. I came away from the trip with a great appreciation for Nashville and a new perspective on how things are done differently in arenas not named First Niagara Center.

As someone who has a general concern for the atmosphere at Sabres games I wasn’t expecting to come away with so many different opinions on the stark differences between what the Sabres and Preds do. But that’s exactly what happened after taking in Sunday’s game between the Preds and the Caps. Continue reading →

Sabres pipe dream: Mini goal mask giveaway

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The Sabres announced April will serve as Fan Appreciation Month in a step to give back to their fans for laboring through a 30th place season. A number of giveaways and discounts aimed at the fans and it appears that the first of which will come tonight prior to their game against New Jersey.

It’s a nice step to take as the Sabres are extending a practice that they’ve utilized since Terry Pegula first took over. Outside of the fan handout on Tuesday, April 1, I’m not sure there’s anything that makes the game an event you can’t miss. Exactly what that fan handout is hasn’t yet been explained. Everything else just sort of exists. The Sabres could certainly do better and after such a dismal season it would go a long way to show the fans that management still cares.

Perhaps the Sabres are still holding their big cards for more successful seasons but I’d still like to see something unique done in the near future in the form of a fan giveaway. One idea that immediately came to mind was a series of goal masks throughout the history of the franchise.

While doing one mask a year wouldn’t be very feasible (something tells me a 15-year giveaway series wouldn’t work in the NHL). However they could certainly do between three and five a year and run up a pretty neat collection for their fans.

All it would take, I’d assume, is to make contact with the player and the person who painted their mask to ensure they had a release for the artwork. Upper Deck has done it previously with mini mask collections and the Sabres could mimic that in their own way. I’d say a five-inch tall mask would be perfect, although that’s pretty large.

I have a pretty decent list of masks that would have to be included in any sort of collection that will be presented here in no particular order.

Dominik Hasek. This is an obvious choice and I’d prefer to go with the basic black with just the B alternate logo on the side, but this version is more visually appealing.

Martin Biron’s half-and-half helmet was probably the most iconic one that he wore in Buffalo besides the Amerks mask he donned when he finally earned a permanent role. In fact, I’d love to see that Americans mask included in this type of collection.

Ryan Miller is sort of a no brainer. They could include his Olympic mask too, but considering he’s so recently departed it may be overkill.

I’m a huge fan of Grant Fuhr’s longhorn skull mask. I’d love to see this one done.

Gerry Desjardins had a very cool mask design that would be a must to include.

Steve Shields wore a very dark mask that was hard to distinguish but I was a huge fan of it. He had another, less cool one as well.

Obviously with Jhonas Enroth and Michal Neuvirth being the team’s current goaltenders it would make sense to include both of them in the collection. You can certainly take your pick considering Enroth’s artwork changes each year while Neuvirth’s will be an easy choice.

Additional goaltenders that would be worth including would be Roger Crozier, Tom Barrasso, Bob Sauve  and Don Edwards among others.

It comes down to honoring the goalies who most deserve it (those with the most games played, wins, etc.) or those whose masks have the best artwork. My list leans towards the latter as they’re simply better collectors items than blank masks like Sauve’s and Edwards’ that would probably be very hard to duplicate.

This is just one somewhat goofy idea of the many I cook up throughout the day that I thought would be fun to share. A great many Sabres netminders wore some very cool masks and creating a series of fan giveaways with them could be very cool. Or a local retailer could take up the banner and prepare to take my money.

Miller’s new Blues mask isn’t a miss, but it’s not a hit either

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Wearing the same mask design for 10 years isn’t easy in today’s NHL. Most goalies switch their mask art each year with some even switching in-season. That’s what helped make Ryan Miller’s Buffalo mask so iconic and what will make getting used to his new Blues mask so difficult.

A legion of Sabres fans spent their formative years with Miller working his way up from Rochester to the face of the franchise is short order. Along for the ride was his red and black era Buffalo inspired mask that was painted by his longtime mask artist, Ray Bishop. The only thing that changed over the years were minor alterations or additions that was finally retired in this form.

Photo courtesy of Bishop Designs Facebook page

Miller’s new St. Louis mask is different. Really different. It draws from Curtis Joseph’s old trumpets mask which would up serving as motivation for the Blues organization to include trumpets in their logo. So the pedigree was strong. I don’t think the overall look of the mask translates as well as Joseph’s did, however. Continue reading →

Sabres could benefit from proposed changes to the draft lottery

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Even before Darcy Regier uttered the word suffering at his press conference last year, the Sabres were embarking on a rebuilding effort that would see many of their established veterans traded for futures that include prospects and picks in the coming drafts.

Regier likely expected to be in the exact spot that Tim Murray find himself in now; without Ryan Miller, Matt Moulson (via Thomas Vanek) and Steve Ott while possessing a bevy of draft picks in the top 60 of the next two drafts. He also most certainly knew his team would be picking quite high in one or perhaps both of the drafts as he set the organization on the path they’re on now. Exactly how deliberate the on-ice results that followed were is up for debate, but it would seem as if Regier and Murray both knew the Sabres would be picking at the top of this June’s draft with a strong likelihood of repeating the feat in 2015.

That’s why the news that the NHL is considering to make a significant change to the draft lottery, ahead of what’s expected to be one of the deepest first rounds in years, is likely startling to many Sabres fans. It falls in line with so many “because it’s Buffalo” moments as those who follow the team and were expecting to have a chance to purchase a Connor McDavid or Jack Eichel jersey in a few years may be watching another fan base with envy. Continue reading →

Sabres deadline solidifies foundation for rebuild

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It may have taken a late flurry, but Tim Murray put his stamp on the organization with a firm, aggressive series of trades around the 2014 trade deadline.

A look at the players that have come and gone since the start of the 13-14 season.
A look at the players and picks that have come and gone since the start of the 13-14 season. I consider a lateral move one that saw the Sabres acquire and flip a player for additional assets.

He got started early by sending Ryan Miller and Steve Ott to St. Louis on Friday and threw his hat in the ring with one of the earlier trades on Wednesday. Murray shipped Brayden McNabb, two second round picks and Jonathan Parker to Los Angeles for Hudson Fasching and Nicolas Deslauriers.

Murray’s punctuated his first deadline with two 11th hour deals involving three of this pending UFAs that ensured previous investments would continue to pay dividends. After finding a dance partner to take Matt Moulson (and Cody McCormick), Murray managed to flip Jaroslav Halak for a younger goaltender with term.

It was a productive deadline that provides the framework for the way Murray will shape the roster through the 2014 and 15 drafts. Two drafts that will see the Sabres make four (possibly five) first round selections. Continue reading →