Author: Chris Ostrander

Regier wise to avoid Carter trade

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The Sabres missed out on another number one center when Jeff Carter was shipped to Los Angeles last night. However, Buffalo not jumping into the Carter sweepstakes isn’t as upsetting as missing out on a player like Brad Richards.

Los Angeles sent defenseman Jack Johnson and a conditional first-round pick to Columbus in exchange for the disgruntled center. Plenty of people in Sabres nation are likely wondering why Darcy Regier failed to acquire Carter. I say, who cares?

The most obvious issue regarding Carter’s trade is the fact that he is moving on to his third team in less than a year. There were the reports of locker room issues in Philly, there was the Dry Island debacle and now it seems his cancer spread to the locker room in Columbus as well. Additional reports of being less than pleased with his move to Ohio’s capital were floating around as well. How many of these reports are true? There is no way to be sure. But if even half of that information is true, placing him in “the worst city in the NHL” probably wouldn’t do much to pick up his spirits.

What is the true reason the Sabres weren’t involved in this sweepstakes is the simple fact that they didn’t have the pieces to send to the Kings. Buffalo’s first round pick this year is going to be in the top-10. A top-10, potential lottery pick is not the type of asset you move in a trade like this. Like it or not, Jeff Carter is not Rick Nash. In addition, there is no player on the Buffalo roster with the equivalent value to Jack Johnson. Jordan Leopold and Andrej Sekera play a similar role, but only Sekera would be close in regards to Johnson’s overall value. Tyler Myers is far superior to Johnson in a two-way role. The only way you’re seeing Myers moved is for an elite talent (see: Getzlaf, Ryan). Continue reading →

The Morning Skate: Weekend results to determine Monday’s stance

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No one really knows if the Sabres are buyers or sellers just yet. Most fans would lead you to believe they should be sellers. Many members of the media would likely say the same thing. However, it would appear the verdict is still out down at Seymour H Knox III Plaza.

The Sabres sit seven points out of eighth place in the Eastern Conference, the same place they were before their win on Tuesday. As you can tell, this is going to be a difficult journey. Buffalo are well within striking distance of a playoff spot and simply need to continue the run of strong play they have been on since the All-Star break. That evidence alone would lead me to believe that the organization wants to wait before determining what steps they plan on taking on Monday.

Tonight’s game will do a lot for that decision. For that matter, tomorrow’s game carries just about the same weight. If the Sabres end the weekend 0-2, they can all but kiss their chances goodbye and begin to retool on the deadline. If they come away with four points – six points for the week – there will be some careful stepping by Darcy Regier and company when deciding in what direction to move.

The last time the Bruins came to town the Sabres didn’t wilt under the weight of Boston’s physical game. The Sabres pushed back and showed they’re not completely incapable of standing up for themselves. Of course, the Sabres got handled in all three fights. But they didn’t back down.

Buffalo also enjoyed some poor goaltending and cruised to a 6-0 victory. I doubt that the Bruins will come with another poor effort tonight and the Sabres will need to be prepared. Ryan Miller has been playing terrific hockey and needs to extend that streak as it seems obvious the team still rolls with his fortune.

The Sabres simply need another full effort if they hope to win. They have proved they’re capable of playing more than 30 minutes of hockey lately, they just need to carry that swagger into this weekend’s games. Continue reading →

Sabres Stat Pack: Examining Ryan Miller’s recent play

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Ryan Miller hasn’t been the goaltender that put the US Olympic team on his back and was one shot from a gold medal in 2010. He isn’t the Vezina winner, nor the goaltender who stole a pair of win for the Sabres in last year’s playoffs.

As is the case with most Buffalo sports fans, Miller has fallen into a bad light with many because of his substandard play this season. However, he is enjoying a noticeable turnaround as of late. While his improved play may not be enough to vault the Sabres into the playoffs, many need to realize that he isn’t playing like the sieve he is being made out to be.

The first thing every Sabres fan needs to realize is that Ryan Miller is not Dominik Hasek. It is doubtful that Buffalo will have another goaltender of that caliber, so get over it. Stop thinking Miller is going to roll up 15 shutouts and keep his goals against below 1.90 every year. It is unrealistic and, frankly, an unfair standard to hold any player to.

Miller’s career numbers have hovered right around 2.50 goals against with a save percentage right around .910 to .920. His elevated play in 2009-10 produced significantly better numbers (2.22 GAA and .929 SV%) which obviously raised expectations.

Last year and this year have brought more scrutiny to his game, even though it hasn’t been much different than it had been in years past. Goaltending is often more objective that just looking at the numbers. Say what you will about career statistics, but an eye test will tell you that Miller is the guy you want on a nightly basis compared to Marty Biron, for example.

Without any tangible proof, I’ll stay away from calling Miller a big-game goalie. He has stepped up and performed for his team when they have needed him (see the wins in last year’s playoffs). Add to that his success in the shootout over the course of his career. Many argue that Miller isn’t worth the money they’re paying him. I’d say those people are dead wrong. They also say the money would be better spent elsewhere, that is a valid argument that would be worth exploring. But don’t try and say Miller is the reason the Sabres are floating around the bottom of the Eastern Conference.

The hot start to Miller’s season cooled after a tough outing against Philadelphia and his subsequent concussion against Boston. Those two games combined with his horrific performance against Pittsburgh dragged his numbers to the bottom of the league’s goaltenders. However, as he has gotten further from the pair of concussions he suffered in less than a year, his play has improved. Continue reading →

Another athlete bags on Buffalo, maybe it is time to answer the bell

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This is the part when everyone is supposed to freak out. You know, when everyone stands up, puffs their chest and says how Buffalo’s heritage is fantastic, the architectural history is unparalleled and you simply don’t know this city unless you’ve lived here.

Brad Marchand likes to try an injure people, he does not like Buffalo.

When Joffery Lupul first started ragging on the city, Buffalo as taken some heat from athletes in the NHL and NFL for the fact that the city isn’t as nice as the ones they call home. Lupul, Tom Brady and now Marchand have all had their pot shots as of late. Sure it stings to hear people say our city stinks, but are they really that off base?

This just in, Boston is a cooler city and has more things to do than Buffalo. Yeah, no kidding. Also in the new today, it is cold out, the sky is blue and Marchand’s nose would be mistaken for a shark fin if he was doing the backstroke. Comparing Buffalo to Boston or Toronto would be like trying to compare Channing Tatum to Tom Hanks. There is no common ground for comparison, aside from the fact that Buffalo and Boston are both indeed cities.

Where I take offense is not so much in the comments made by Marchand, but in the fact that Buffalo is still treading water rather than attempting to improve the city. Sure the swarm of bees becomes infuriated when the nest gets poked, but everyone is content to stay inside unless otherwise provoked. Continue reading →

Double Minors: Close win puts Sabres six back

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Two points go in the win column tonight but the Sabres only enjoyed a one-point improvement in the standings. Buffalo played two dominant periods of hockey before hanging on for a 2-1 victory over the Islanders.

The trade deadline is fast approaching and teams that sit on the playoff bubble are nearing the point where they need to decide if they’re contenders or pretenders. The Sabres will need help for a while longer if they are to climb into the eighth or ninth spot in the conference.

However, more performances like tonight will certainly help matters. Ryan Miller was brilliant yet again in goal, turning aside 30 of 31 shots and the Sabres received another smart performance from Tyler Myers along the way.

The obvious problem of not having the “right” players still exists. It appears that teams who remain in the hunt but realize their shortcomings are beginning to sell off pieces. The Sabres certainly fall into that boat, but have plenty of skill on the roster that may just need the right amount of glue to get them on a playoff run.

Frankly I see too many issues that need to be addressed before the Sabres are capable of making a true run in the playoffs. They could certainly get the ball rolling at the deadline and carry that momentum into the off-season. In the meantime, their push towards eighth will be an uphill battle and they will need those above them to stumble along the way. Continue reading →

The Morning Skate: Sabres stuck in the middle as deadline nears

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The bottom of the Eastern Conference is little more than a cluster of teams trying not to make playoffs.  Seven points separate eighth place from fifteenth and even the Southeast Division leading Panthers are a point better than eighth at this point.

Buffalo are still well within striking distance of a playoff spot, as are the Islanders. New York sits six points behind Toronto and Buffalo is seven back of the Leafs. There is still plenty of hockey to be played, but with the deadline looming you have to wonder how some teams in the East will move forward based on their current roster.

The Sabres are stuck in the middle. They’re only seven points out of a playoff spot and could conceivably push that gap to one point if they were to sweep this week’s games and get some help. While that isn’t the most realistic scenario, the ability for the Sabres to snag six points is well within reach. This team did cobble together a short streak of points recently. A strong week would likely set the team up to try and make one final push for the playoffs. Dropping three or more points could potentially set the table for a trade deadline of selling.

Personally, I just want to see this team play some strong, consistent hockey. Their last six-goal performance on national television was followed with two average efforts. If this team is serious about making a run, they need to prove their capable of being dominant for a number of games.

Highlighted Matchup

The Gaustad line vs. the Tavares line. Buffalo made Frans Nielsen look like Gretzky last time these two teams met. His success was mostly thanks to some poor defensive efforts. Buffalo has three points in their last two games, a big part of that has been the success the team has had in shutting down their opponent’s top line. Paul Gaustad is quickly making himself a commodity many teams will want at the deadline and Pat Kaleta and Nathan Gerbe have been effective in their roles. If this line is capable of another shut-down effort there is a good chance of grabbing two points.

Projected Goaltenders

BUF: Ryan Miller

NYI: Al Montoya

Last meeting

Sabres 4 – Islanders 3 SO, Nassau Veterans Coliseum, 2/4/2012

*no stats today*

The Instigator Podcast 1.5 – Meeting Deadline

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The fifth edition of The Instigator Podcast is in the can. This week Eric (or 3rd Man In) and took on the trade deadline, what could happen around the league and which Sabres may be picked up by next Monday. Have a listen:

As always, let us know your thoughts on the product. @2ITB_Buffalo @3rdmanin

 

Deadline Preview: Evaluating Brad Boyes’ trade value

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The first two trade deadline analysis posts focused on Paul Gaustad and Drew Stafford. Today’s will take a look at Brad Boyes and how his final days with the franchise may be spent.

Brad Boyes represents the first major step in the Pegula era. Boyes was acquired at the deadline without needing to send money out. It was a straight acquisition of a player expected to help the Sabres’ playoff push.

Since being acquired, Boyes has enjoyed a terrific early run, a dismal playoff showing and now a nearly invisible regular season. A great many have piled on Boyes, accusing Darcy Regier of acquiring a useless winger who makes too much money. What they are forgetting is how key he was for the team during the stretch run.

Boyes’ contributions played a large role in the Sabres sneaking into the playoffs last season. While his cold streak began at the very end of the regular season – and has continued almost a full calendar year – he was a pivotal player for a good portion of February, March and April. Of course, all of that production has disappeared and he is now an afterthought on a team over-saturated with second-line wingers.

While Boyes possesses some traits that make him an attractive option for many teams, his lack of production has destroyed any sort of value he may bring on the trade market. One way or another, Bard Boyes will be wearing a different uniform next season. The question is; can the Sabres get some return for him before losing him?

It is my contention that grabbing a fourth-round pick at the deadline for Boyes would not only be fair return for the winger, but it would ultimately be an equal trade for everything that Regier has done since last February. Remember, Boyes was traded for a second-round pick which was all but replaced by Calgary in the Regehr trade. The Sabres sent their fourth-round selection to the Islanders for Christian Ehrhoff’s negotiating rights. Buffalo could fill that void if they are able to find a trade partner for Boyes.

Keep in mind that Boyes is not a former 40-goal scorer on the downside of his career. He is caught on a roster with an abundance of offensive talent and has been bumped down the depth chart for a host of reasons. His lack of production is alarming, but putting him in a situation where ice time will not be a premium will surely spark his goal scoring touch.

Teams like Minnesota, Los Angeles, Colorado and Nashville are all in a situation where a scoring winger could do them good. Depending on the type of investment they wish to make will determine what kind of player those teams chase. I would have to assume Boyes is on their radar, at the very least. Given the thin crop of wingers expected to be available, there are surely going to be a few teams seeking his services.

Expecting to receive anything higher than a fourth seems a little foolhardy to me. The market is thin and the potential to steal picks is certainly there, but Boyes’ lack of production this year has to be concerning for any team that will be looking closely. Having the ability to replace the pick they lost to acquire Ehrhoff would not only mean that Boyes helped them make the playoffs, but that brining Ehrhoff on came with a minimal loss.

What Regier will need to determine prior to the 27 is if dropping Boyes from the roster will have any affect on the team as the year winds down. Boyes is getting time on the power play and is seeing time on the wing and at center. With a minimal chance of making the playoffs, there is no reason to hold onto a winger/center who has been forced down the depth chart.

Keep an eye on the playoff teams – or those just on the bubble – who are in need of some secondary scoring. These will also be teams who could be interested in Drew Stafford, but the price for Boyes will be significantly lower than for Stafford.

The Sabres are in a situation to sell an affordable piece (in terms of return) before losing him for nothing in July. Even selling Boyes for a loss will be a small victory.

Double Minors: Sabres come out for national audience

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After another brief run of losses, the Buffalo Sabres responded. In front of a (sort of) national audience, the Sabres hung six goals on the Pittsburgh Penguins on their way to a 6-2 victory.

Buffalo had dropped four-straight after piecing together a solid run that had some thinking they were capable of salvaging some portion of this season. A few dismal efforts and one blowout all but squashed that type of thinking. Yesterday’s win was one of those, “where has this been?” type of games.

Derek Roy, Jason Pominville and Christian Ehrhoff each picked up three points and Ryan Miller stood tall for his team all afternoon, stopping 24 of 26 shots.

For once there was goal support for the goaltender and goals came from both the top line and role players. The Gaustad/Kaleta/Gerbe line was brilliant and they were rewarded with the game winning goal. Ville Leino and Zack Kassian were fairly unnoticeable but each nabbed an assist. Of course Pominville continued to prove Lindy Ruff right regarding the captaincy with another MVP effort.

While this game may only prove to be evidence for trading certain pieces – Paul Gaustad won 16 of 23 draws and scored the winner – it was a refreshing reminder that the Sabres aren’t necessarily the worst team ever assembled. Sure, there are some flaws on this roster that need to be addressed. But there was promise in this season before everything hit the skids. While 2011-12 may be lost, know that with a few moves the 2012-13 team will be solid.

  • It is interesting to hear how different fans interpret the performances of different players. For example, Ryan Miller can’t seem to catch a break with some and Christian Ehrhoff only has a few good games here and there. Fact of the matter is, each of those players had a fantastic outing yesterday afternoon.
  • Miller may not have been given a star, but he had a few dazzling saves (Malkin, Martin etc.) yesterday. You may argue that both goals were stoppable, but Miller made big saves when his team needed them. I was against starting him but he had a fantastic outing. His play since January 1 has been sound, he is looking like the goalie from October once again.
  • Christian Ehrhoff has a cap hit of $4m. That is a bargain. I could care less what his actual salary is. His play at both ends of the ice has been sound. Regardless if he hasn’t scored 15 goals (seriously, get real), Ehrhoff has been a steady force this season and has proved to be a wise acquisition.
  • Derek Roy looked like an elite hockey player yesterday. I’m not sure what put him in such a funk this season, but he looked like a player that is going to be a commodity next Monday.
  • Jason Pominville and Ryan Miller both play for Team USA. They both had great games on Hockey Day in America. Great showing from a couple players who may just be wearing the red, white and blue at the World Championships.
  • Hockey Day in America is still young, but I see a pretty awesome future in store for the event. I don’t expect Knicks fans in Brooklyn to sit down to watch the Rangers in five years, but this is the type of day to bring attention to the nation’s true hockey cities. Not for their pro teams so much as the hockey culture that exists. I’m pumped for the day NBC broadcasts with kids playing on the frozen canals at Canalside as a backdrop.
  • Paul Gaustad’s trade value has to be astronomical. He kick started his season with the “Where’s Chara?” game against the Habs. He has been worth just about every penny they’re spending on him since then – maybe only a $1.75m cap hit. He saw a steady diet of Evgeni Malkin all afternoon and won a ton of draws. Oh yes, he also scored the game winning goal. There have to be a half-dozen suitors willing to spend far too much on his services until the Cup Finals.
  • Speaking of Goose. Gord Miller shared the fact that he met with Darcy Regier in private yesterday. I’m assuming that conversation discussed the fact he will be traded by Monday. The conversation likely touched on the idea that the Sabres will re-sign Gaustad on July 1.

Game Summary/Event Summary

 

Double Minors: Special teams letdown in loss to Habs

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For all intents and purposes, last night was a road game. Montreal fans surely outnumbered Sabres fans at First Niagara Center for last night’s shootout loss.

In what is becoming a disturbing trend, Canadian road fans are coming out in droves to support teams other than the Sabres. Obviously Buffalo’s struggles this season have a lot to do with the current supply and demand of tickets, but even this is embarrassing.

It is one thing to have a large portion of your market hail from southern Ontario, it is an entirely different situation to have roughly 9,000 fans wearing Maple Leafs or Canaidens jerseys.

The shootout loss made things worse, of course. The Sabres special teams play has gotten progressively uglier in recent weeks. The power play has become rather stagnant and the penalty kill can’t keep pucks from going in. The two power play goals Buffalo allowed came at the tail end of the respective penalties and the Sabres’ inability to clear their zone was the main culprit in the two goals.

Buffalo’s power play was equally ineffective. Granted, they were facing one of the league’s best penalty kill units. Still, to end the overtime period with an extended four-on-three opportunity is where the good teams and bad teams are separated. Tyler Myers had a great game and earned his spot for that final power play, but why leave the team’s hardest shot (Ehrhoff) on the bench?

Sabres fans can start scouting Nail Yakupov, Mikhail Grigorenko and Filip Forsberg. The Sabres currently sit last in the Eastern Conference and hold the third pick in the 2012 draft.

  • Ryan Miller wasn’t the goalie the Sabres needed him to be last night. He was visibly upset with his performance in the shootout and admitted to it in his post game interview. Miller made a few big saves in the third as the Sabres pushed to get the game to overtime, he just wasn’t up to task in the shootout. I’d sit him down for tomorrow’s game against Pittsburgh. Give him a proper day off while allowing Jhonas Enroth to get a full start under his belt. Besides the playoff push is over, no reason to ride Miller into the ground.
  • Ville Leino wasn’t too bad last night. He picked up a pair of assists – one on a great effort behind the net – and looks as if he has rounded into form. It took a little longer than expected, but ensuring he sees top-six minutes is obviously the key to getting regular production from him. Shocking that a skill forward would need big minutes to be prodcutive, no?
  • I understand that Thomas Vanek was sat down due to another offensive zone penalty. However, your best players need to play big minutes. If Vanek is seeing less time than players like Mathieu Darche, there is a problem.
  • Zack Kassian was all but invisible last night. He needs to play with that physical edge on a nightly basis. I still contend that a veteran presence sitting next to him in the locker room every day would help bring out the most in the rookie. For example, what Mike Grier did for Thomas Vanek in terms of accountability and drive.
  • Robyn Regehr was born in Brazil, this much is true. However, he is a Canadian through and through. I wasn’t sure which the Sabres would choose to post, his citizenship/international hockey affiliation or his birthplace. It was cool to see the Brazilian flag on the videoboard for Regehr’s first goal as a Sabre.
  • The Sabres were credited with only nine hits last night. Regehr and Ville Leino were the only players in double digits. I want to know if it is coaching or some sort of culture in the locker room that keeps this team from finishing their checks. Boston and Philly are prime examples of teams that never miss a chance to put their man into the boards. I just wonder if the onus lies with the players or the coaches. Maybe it is a little of both.

Game Summary/Event Summary