Author: Chris Ostrander

Bills draft strategy a mystery

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As the NFL draft creeps closer by the day, Bills fans are beginning to buzz as to what direction their team may take with their selections in New York.

Could Luke Kuechly be the man for the Bills?

 

By signing Mario Williams, the Bills have opened themselves up to possibly go for talent over necessity with their first round pick. There are some obvious deficiencies that do need to be addressed through the draft, but the talent available when the Bills are on the board may push Buddy Nix to take the best player, rather than the player who best meets the needs of the team.

Most draft experts are saying one of two names for the Bills in the first round. Either Riley Reiff or Michael Floyd. I think Luke Kuechly’s name should probably be mentioned in the conversation, along with Melvin Ingram. Why? Buffalo’s depth at linebacker is terribly thin.

I don’t think that Ingram would be very well suited to play linebacker at the NFL level. However, he does have some very impressive pass rushing characteristics which could make him an enticing option as a stand-up pass rusher. Kuechly, while incredibly talented, would be just another middle linebacker being lined up by the Bills. Currently, Kelvin Sheppard is penciled in to play the middle with Nick Barnett and Kirk Morrison (two inside backers) to play on the strong and weak sides. Add Kuechly to the mix would certainly add elite talent, but not necessarily a traditional outside linebacker.

Given that information, you probably end up back at square one with the first round pick. Simply take a look at the draft board and determine the best player listed and select him. Outside of picking a quarterback, running back or defensive lineman, nearly every other position could use an upgrade. Considering the Bills have so many needs, they will likely hit one of them with their choice.

If I’m making the pick, I’m either trading down or selecting the best tackle on my draft board. Reiff or Jonathon Martin are bound to be available when the Bills are on the clock. Either one of these guys would give the Bills a massive upgrade at tackle. When I look at the Bills roster, tackle is probably the biggest position of need, in my opinion. Figuring out if Buddy Nix values the tackles available as a first round talent is a whole different question.

As of now, I would say that Martin is probably the best fit for the needs the Bills have. Based on that assessment, that is why I would make Martin my selection, that is if he still carries a top-10 grade. There is just something about Martin I like better than Reiff. However, if they’re truly going to take the best player available, I could see them going in a number of different directions.

I can see Ingram as a viable choice, if he is deemed as the most talented.  He would make even more sense if they feel confident that he can play outside linebacker in a 4-3. Drafting Ingram would give the Bills one more pass rushing monster along with Williams, Mark Anderson and Shawne Merriman (assuming they keep him). Think along the lines of the talent the Giants are able to roll out at any given time, that is basically what you’re looking at by drafting Ingram.

The same can be said of Kuechly as I just said of Ingram. If the Bills are comfortable with transitioning him to the outside, he would be a perfect fit. However, if he – or Kelvin Sheppard, for that matter – doesn’t have the skillset to transition to the outside in the NFL, taking Kuechly would be a waste.

If the Bills decide that none of the players above are truly the best available, then I would put my money on Floyd. He is a great prospect who would provide a true compliment to Stevie Johnson. Truthfully, he probably best fits the “best available” tag. If Floyd is the choice the Bills make, so be it. I’m not sure if I would totally agree with using the number 10 pick on a wide receiver, especially considering the other needs the team has. However, Floyd certainly would fill the hole opposite Johnson that has been previously filled by undrafted free agents.

What decision will need to be made is what the best approach for the Bills will be. Enough significant upgrades have been made to continue inserting talent into positions of need. However, the Bills don’t have the luxury of choosing which ever player they think is the best. There are spots that need to be filled and the first round pick needs to be used as such.

NHL playoffs marred, but captivating with physicality

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The NHL playoffs will forever be the best month and a half of television that you can find. No matter who is in the tournament, the yearly battle for the Stanley Cup is some of the most dramatic and captivating television you can find.

Even with all of the shenanigans, this year has yet to disappoint. The nightly gongshow that has become the 2012 Stanley Cup Playoffs has become appointment television that even the most casual of hockey fans have found interest with. The ratings from the Pittsburgh/Philadelphia ratings do all the talking.

Say what you will, but the physical nature of the Penguins/Flyers series has been terrific television.

However, things are starting to spiral out of control. From the lack of respect from the players, the lack of control from the officials to the lack of consistency from the league, some major problems have come to a head through just half of round one. Yet, I do have to ask, is this all bad for the game?

Obviously the ridiculous hits and headhunting are an ugly addition to these playoffs and need to be stopped. However, the fights and line brawls have to bring some extra spice for those casual viewers who may not be true hockey fans. Think about it, casual sports fans think hockey is all about fighting; these playoffs have provided plenty of that. There has even been some decent numbers in the goal scoring department, another category that is referenced when bemoaning television viewership.

While the offense hasn’t surpassed  the magical six goals per game mark – 5.28 goals per game entering Wednesday – nearly every game has been a blast to watch. Personally, five goals in a game is really all you need. A 3-2 game is typically thrilling and features nearly two goals per period, you can’t ask for too much more.  Also consider that there have been eight overtime games played of the 25 so far in these playoffs. Those OT games are basically canned drama that any fan could find interesting. Even the scoring numbers have been slightly skewed. Considering there have been three 1-0 games and two additional three-goal contests, the scoring could be much higher. Continue reading →

Grading the Sabres: Goaltenders

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Over the next few days and weeks, I will be providing some grades for each player to suit up for the Sabres this season. The evaluations will be done in groups, beginning with the goaltenders.

Ryan Miller – B

Overall, the Sabres goaltending wasn’t good enough this season. Based on numbers alone, both Miller and Jhonas Enroth would be right in the middle of the pack among their peers. However, it was an up and down year for each highlighted by rough patches and some great play.

Miller’s hot streak to end the season was one of the main reasons the Sabres were even alive in the Eastern Conference playoff hunt. His slump through November and December was one of the main reasons Buffalo was so deep in the Eastern Conference.

Overall, Miller played some very good hockey for long stretches. Obviously the run he began in January all but erased the ugly stats he developed earlier in the season. I would contend that a great deal of his struggles were tied to the long recovery from his collision with Milan Lucic. The injury itself may not have done as much damage as the lengthy recovery period Miller went through. A simple eye test would show that he wasn’t back to normal until well into January – nearly two full months after the injury.

Critics and apologists should all be able to agree that Miller’s season needed to be better. However, when healthy, I would argue he would have produced one of his best professional seasons to date. His play in early October was stellar, as was his final three months. There were a couple appearances that hurt his numbers – when he was injured and stepping in for Enroth in Philly – but his play at the end of the year all but righted the ship.

Miller’s play has always been more about his actual results rather than strictly numbers. Goaltending has always been about making the big saves when necessary, that doesn’t always mean your numbers will be Hasekian. For Miller, there is plenty of room for improvement. I would say a good offseason and a run of healthy hockey could certainly help shake some of the critics from his back. Continue reading →

Early road games punctuate Bills 2012 schedule

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The Buffalo Bills will play host to a national audience for a home night game in addition to playing four home games for the 2012 season.

With the Bills 2012 schedule released this evening, fans get a look at who and where the Bills will play this season. Buffalo will see the NFC West and AFC South, along with games against Cleveland and Kansas City this year, in addition to their usual slate of AFC East games.

The highlight of the season comes on November 15 when the Miami Dolphins come to town for a Thursday night contest in what will hopefully be cold, blustery weather. There is nothing better than putting a beating on the Dolphins while snow is flying. We will see if mother nature cooperates. Continue reading →

Sabres in review: What went wrong

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After taking a look at a few of the bright spots for the Sabres this season, here are a few of the lowlights from the up and down season that saw the Sabres fall short of a playoff berth.

Injuries

By no means do I feel that injuries are the reason for Buffalo’s poor showing this year. But I certainly think they played a part in the downfall. I place this first because I’m tired of talking about it, so I want to get it out of the way.

It is obvious that injuries played a role in the Sabres’inability to defend and produce consistent offense at various points throughout the year. For example, having Paul Szecechura centering your top two scorers isn’t an ideal situation. The same can be said for needing to dress Derek Whitmore and Marcus Foligno for their NHL debut on the same roster as T.J. Brennan and Brayden McNabb.

The reason injuries can’t be pegged as the only reason for Buffalo’s struggles is that many of their regulars remained in the lineup. Derek Roy and Drew Stafford’s stagnant first half had little to do with other players being injured. The same goes for Ville Leino and Brad Boyes – although those two did miss some time due to ailments.

I think the only major issue that Buffalo couldn’t overcome was the way their defense was affected by the injury bug. By forcing Mike Weber into big minutes, while Brennan, Joe Finley and McNabb also took regular shifts, the Sabres were obviously operating with lesser talent in places where they needed strong players. I have to think the defensive strategy did suffer at times when the injuries were really bad, but that doesn’t excuse the inability of some of Buffalo’s core to perform at an adequate level.

Line shuffling

One piece of criticism that I’ll never deflect from Lindy Ruff is how he treats his lines. He is far too impatient with the production of some and far too loyal to others. Luke Adam, Jason Pominville and Thomas Vanek were terrific to begin the year, but the line was broken up by the end of November. Those three players spent the rest of the season bouncing between different lines and experiencing different levels of success as the season progressed. Adam ended up in Rochester because he couldn’t find traction after the success he had with the team’s top two scorers.

Ville Leino and Brad Boyes are also part of this conversation. After proving he wasn’t a capable center, Leino was bounced around every single line on the team before ultimately settling on the wing with Derek Roy and Pominville. That was in March. Leino had an ugly season and didn’t justify his paycheck. However, you have to wonder if he had been given a fair chance to develop some chemistry with two linemates that his numbers may have been better.

Showing little to no trust in the players he groups together is one of Lindy Ruff’s greatest faults. I feel that he did more harm than good this season with the choices he made regarding who his players skated with.

Jhonas Enroth

Enroth makes this list not for his play, but the way he was utilized. Or should I say, underutilized?

After a great stretch of hockey last year, Enroth stayed hot in the fall working in tandem with Ryan Miller. He took over from Miller when Buffalo’s starter was injured and things began to head downhill. As the team deteriorated, as did Enroth’s game. He hadn’t won a game since November entering a stretch of hockey that saw him get a rare start on a back-to-back set. His losing streak is still intact heading into 2012-13.

Enroth is a very capable backup, but he needs to be used properly. Sitting him on the bench to get pickled will do nothing for his development or his impact on the team. Miller was called to start 30-straight games yet again, it is a situation that needs to end one day. One day soon.

Ville Leino & Brad Boyes

Buffalo’s pair of $4M+ wingers combined for 16 goals. You wouldn’t pay a single player their combined salary to score 16 goals. Both had their own types of let downs, but I would say Boyes was a bigger bust.

Boyes did fall victim to playing on the fourth line, which seriously choked off his offensive output. However, he did see plenty of time on Buffalo’s stagnant power play and didn’t pick up many points there. Despite his impressive start last spring, Boyes has been a disappointing player during his time in Buffalo.

As for Leino, there are a number of things he does quite well. His puck control is phenomenal and he makes some strong plays in the offensive zone. However, the scoring wasn’t there. Why? I feel that Leino’s adjustment period was longer because of being expected to play center and his general style of play. Add in the fact that he found himself playing nearly every position on every line the Sabres put out this year.  Still, he wasn’t the player they expected or needed him to be. For $4.5M, that simply can’t happen.

Power Play

To think I thought all would be better when Brian McCutcheon moved on. I was way off. The Buffalo power play remained streakier than generic Windex and failed to be a difference maker at numerous times during the season.

For the second-straight season, the Sabres failed to figure out how to enter the zone properly; relying on that idiotic drop pass and flat footed attacks. The organization acquired a premier point shooter, but he wasn’t used as such. Rather than build their attack around Christian Ehrhoff, the Sabres treated him as just another player and it showed.

The numbers may not back up all of my claims regarding the power play, but an eye test would show that this unit was in desperate need of an overhaul. Perhaps Scott Arniel is interested in coming back to reprise his role from 2005-06.

Sabres in review: What went right

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Hopefully my season recap provided a broad view of the ups and downs of the Sabres’ season. Chances are that I didn’t accomplish such a goal, apologies. I would also like to highlight some more specific cases as to the pros and cons, the good and bad of the 2011-12 Buffalo Sabres season. What went right and wrong will be presented in different posts. First, what went right.

Tyler Ennis

Like just about everyone on the roster, Ennis didn’t enjoy a full year of successful hockey. However, when Ennis finally got healthy, he was one of Buffalo’s most consistent and dangerous forwards.

Despite missing 34 games with a high ankle sprain, Ennis finished the season with 34 points (15+19) in 48 games. His early season struggles were caused by his injury. Seven of Ennis’ multi-point games came in the final 15 contests of the season. His move to center not only jump started his production, but it provided a spark to the entire roster. He found instant chemistry with Drew Stafford and eventually Marcus Foligno. Ennis has suddenly become the best center in the Sabres organization and will be due a healthy raise, I’m guessing in the $3M range.

Jason Pominville

Pominville won the team MVP award and he earned it. Despite all of their struggles this season, Pominville was the only consistent performer over 82 games. Aside from last year, Pominville has always been a consistent point scorer over the entire year. He hit 30 goals, the only Sabre to do so this season.

He embraced the captaincy, despite not being an outspoken, rah-rah player. His first All-Star appearance was great to see and well deserved from a player who used to be a whipping boy for many fans. I have to think he could have achieved more had he been kept with the same linemates for a majority of the season. Separating he and Thomas Vanek didn’t do well for either player’s numbers.

Thomas Vanek (1st Half)

Vanek’s first half play probably surpassed the contributions that Pominville at certain points. However, January brought some bumps and bruises that developed into what seem to be nagging injuries. His second half was one of the biggest disappointments on the year, but his first half play was one of the reasons the Sabres were competitive on some nights.

I won’t include Vanek in both the highs and lows, but understand that he did need to be better during the homestretch this year. Perhaps if he was given the same center for the entire year and treated like an actual superstar, not a 13-minute third line winger, he would continue to top the 30-goal plateau. Continue reading →

The Instigator Podcast 1.8 – No Answer

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After a moderate layoff, Eric and I are back at it with a new edition of The Instigator. We take a look at what decisions have been made by the Sabres as of late and what decisions may lie in the future. Our conversation is based on conjecture more than anything, but share your thoughts if you think we are on the right, or wrong, path. As always, we play Plus/Minus and this week likely features the best intermission music yet.

Comments, criticism, music and topic requests are welcome here or on Twitter: @3rdmanin @2ITB_Buffalo

American prospects are coming to Buffalo

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You can’t argue that Terry Pegula and the Buffalo Sabres aren’t interested in growing the game of hockey. The Sabres and USA Hockey hooked up for the second time in two years to announce that Buffalo will host the inaugural All-American Prospects Game.

The game will be played at First Niagara Center on September 29, 2012. According to the release from the Sabres and USA Hockey, 40 of the top draft-eligible prospects will participate. From the release:

“It’s a concept we’ve been talking about for a couple of years and we’re excited to bring it to life in partnership with the Buffalo Sabres,” said Dave Ogrean, executive director of USA Hockey. “The talent level on the First Niagara Center ice on Sept. 29 will be exceptional. We view this game as an opportunity to gain additional exposure for hockey and help influence growth of the sport through showcasing the future stars of the game.”
“We’re extremely pleased to have this inaugural event come to Buffalo,” said Ted Black, president of the Buffalo Sabres. “We have a tremendous working relationship with USA Hockey and I know our fans will embrace the All-American Prospects Game.”

The release specifies that the rosters will be comprised of players from major junior and collegiate programs with additional players from elite high school and prep hockey programs. Expect roster information to come out in June or July, with ticketing information to be released in May. Continue reading →

Inaugural 2ITB Sabres season awards

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Since the 2011-12 campaign ended without a playoff berth, I have decided that the inaugural 2ITB Awards will have some real awards and some awards that are more worthy of a Dundie. If you don’t like the winners, leave a comment; perhaps you will get a vote for the second annual awards next spring. Here are the winners:

Most Valuable Player – Jason Pominville

In line with the players’ choice, Pominville is an easy choice on a team that did underachieve for portions of the season. I was happy to see him hit the 30-goal plateau, it was a well deserved accomplishment. Pominville embraced his captaincy this season and had a great year. I think consistent line mates could yield similar results in 2012-13.

Least Valuable Player – Brad Boyes

Boyes suffered through a miserable 82-game season with little to show for it. Sure he was stuck on the fourth line and had little chance to produce, but at $4M you can’t afford to be not scoring goals. I was happy to see him come to Buffalo, things just didn’t work out for him this year.

Top Prospect – Marcus Foligno

This was a tough one for me to pick. Foligno was right up there with Brayden McNabb, David Leggio and Joel Armia for the organizational award. However, Foligno’s arrival was such a shot in the arm for the Sabres that it was too difficult to ignore.

Jekyll and Hyde Award – Ryan Miller

It is actually pretty easy to sum up Ryan Miller’s season. Elite hockey, then garbage hockey and then more elite hockey. Sounds like a pretty decent sandwich, no? October was kind to the netminder before suffering a rough start against Philly on national television. He followed that game with a five-goal win against the Jets. His GAA didn’t get any help when he was knocked from his next start in Boston by Milan Lucic. He didn’t start again until December and struggled to find his game for the entire month. He then locked down beginning on January 1 and didn’t look back, putting together a 2.27 GAA and .924 SV%.

Consistently Consistent Award – Tyler Ennis

He didn’t start rolling at a regular clip until after he had missed 34 games with injury. He only played 48 games but picked up 34 points (15+19) in that span. He was indeed a consistent weapon the Sabres could rely on down the stretch, making him extremely valuable heading into next season.

Unsung Hero – Christian Ehrhoff

In case you were wondering, Ehrhoff only makes $4M per year, technically. Considering that cap hit, he was really freaking valuable for most of the season. He was easily the most consistent defenseman the Sabres had and they missed him desperately when he was hurt. Too many people ignored his performance because he wasn’t scoring goals and because he makes $10M per season. He caught a lot of flak for not putting up monster numbers offensively, but he was still extremely valuable. Continue reading →

Sabres retain Ruff and Regier for 2012-13

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Ted Black confirmed to a number of sources that the Sabres will retain Darcy Regier and Lindy Ruff in their respective roles as general manager and head coach for the 2012-13 season. This should come as a surprise to no one.

I just posted some thoughts on how the pair did this season while wondering if it is time for them to be replaced. That post was written knowing that there was a better than good chance the pair would be retained. It was also written not knowing that this announcement would be made minutes before it going up. My goal was to evaluate where the two stood after yet another season without a playoff berth, not to speculate whether or not they would remain with the team.

The choice to retain Regier and Ruff was likely made sometime in December or January, when the injury bug had a firm grip on a team mired in a franchise-record losing streak. While nearly everyone in Hockey Heaven wondered if the organization would make a change at the top, Ted Black identified the course of action the team planned to take. By saying they were not married to any particular “core” players should have told everyone that Regier and Ruff were safe and it was the players who should be on watch.

To his credit, and Regier’s, they stuck with the plan. Regier moved a cornerstone member of the locker room while also trading away a useless defenseman and a highly touted prospect this season. I would imagine he had been working the phones to move additional players, but the offers probably weren’t there. Expect to see at least one or two players from the post-Drury/Briere era shipped off in the summer. Continue reading →