2ITB Playoff Predictions: Eastern Conference

With the West taken care of I now move along to the Eastern Conference and who will earn the right to play the Penguins in the Conference finals. I don’t necessarily think that the Penguins are guaranteed to cruise to the Cup, but I certainly think they’re one of the easiest choices as a favorite.

#1 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #8 New York Islanders

All the shuffling at the bottom of the standings found the Isles in eighth when the dust settled and they’re not heading to Pittsburgh for the first round series. The Isles get a raw deal here as they were a few wins away from a much more favorable seed.

Why Pittsburgh will win: You could basically go back and read the reasons for the Blackhawks if you want. They’re first powerplay unit is straight out of an All-Star game: Iginla and Letang on the point with Malkin, Crosby and Neal. That’s insane. This is not a team I’d want to play for seven games.

Why New York will win: The Isles have gotten strong goaltending from Evgeni Nabokov this season and certainly have a few horses that can run with the Penguins. They may not enough horses, but there is some talent on this roster.

Outcome: Penguins in 5 Continue reading

2ITB Playoff Predictions: Western Conference

I may never recapture the magic of the 2012 2ITB Playoff Predictions. Specifically, the magic of my 5-for-8 first round in which the Blues, Penguins and Bruins fell as teams I chose to advance. Regardless of that fact I will offer my thoughts on each round of the playoffs just as I have in previous years. Beginning with the Western Conference.

#1 Chicago Blackhawks vs. #8 Minnesota Wild

Minnesota snuck in just ahead of #Lumbus for the eighth spot in the west and their prize is to face the Presidents Trophy winning Chicago Blackhawks. Congratulations. Minnesota has a nice little roster and can certainly give teams fits, especially if their guns start firing. However Chicago is about three players short of being an All-Star team and have a pretty impressive makeup for a long playoff run.

Why Chicago will win: Depth and talent. Simply put the Blackhawks have one of the most impressive rosters I’ve seen this side of my NHL 99 team that had Steve Yzerman playing in a third line role. When you have players like Patrick Sharp and Marian Hossa on your second line, you have a very impressive roster. There is a reason the Hawks rattled off that “unbeaten” streak earlier in the year. Their fans just have to hope that magic is still in the room.

Why Minnesota will win: The Wild, on paper, have the edge in goal. I think there could be some contention in Chicago over whether Ray Emery or Corey Crawford should start (especially if one of them falters). Nik Backstrom is a great keeper and could definitely give the Hawks headaches if he stands on his head. Minnesota will need to avoid certain matchups to fully take advantage of the talent they have as compared to the near limitless depth of the Blackhawks. Continue reading

Instigator Podcast 2.7 – Petulance Defined

Eric and I got together for another Podcast last night in the wake of yesterday’s press conference. We touched on a few points outside of what went on at the press conference. Specifically what Darcy Regier may be doing this summer, the future of Ryan Miller and Thomas Vanek and we also made sure to support our self-serving narrative which we pre-prepared.

Buffalo Sabres 2013 2ITB Awards

The 2ITB Awards made their debut last season after the Sabres’ playoff push fell short. After a disappointing season, here are my picks for some serious and not-so-serious team awards:

Most Valuable Player – Thomas Vanek

Atlas Vanek put the team on his back for most of the season. He and Ryan Miller performed at a high level for most of the year – although Miller’s numbers reflect that of a more average goaltender. Vanek’s contributions are more visible and he is certainly deserving of recognition on a team that would be dreadful offensively without his skillset. Here’s hoping he isn’t traded.

Least Valuable Player – Drew Stafford

Just a dismal year for #21. Stafford could never get the train on the tracks and has been largely invisible on many nights. He wears a letter to boot. To think that he makes $4 million a year is a cap crushing nightmare. I would assume he gets traded in the offseason, but that is no guarantee.

Top Prospect – Mark Pysyk

Looking at the body of work each Sabres prospect put together this season, Pysyk is probably the one to stand out the most. Just as 2011-12 winner Marcus Foligno put together a strong stretch run, Pysyk has set himself up very well for his first full NHL season for 2013-14. Continue reading

Trade with Rams provides Bills with numerous options

It seems as if Bills fans are largely split on the selection of EJ Manuel with the 16th pick in the first round last night. Most draft pundits are down on the selection since the majority of them graded Manuel as a second round choice. What bears consideration though is what else came from the move to select Manuel.

Obviously the Bills valued Manuel as the top quarterback in the draft. They very well could have taken him at eight and have walked away with the player they wanted all along. While it would have been considered a massive reach – much like the pick at 16 is as well – the Bills could rest easy knowing they came away with the player they targeted.

However, they remained patient and swung a mutually beneficial deal with the Rams to slide back in the first round. The overall haul of the deal gave the Bills an additional second round pick while seeing them move back eight spots in the first round (16th overall) and seven spots (78th overall) in the third round. They also added an extra seventh round pick.

St. Louis came away with the opportunity to get Tavon Austin – the player they coveted most – and Bills were forced to wait and see if they’d still have the pick of the litter at 16. They did.

It’s safe to assume that the Bills would have been able to pick from at least three or four of the draft’s top quarterbacks at 41 had they gone a different route at 16. But as I wrote earlier, if this is the guy they know they wanted, it’s okay that they took Manuel at 16. Now the focus should shift to the second round.

Having two more picks in the top 50 gives the Bills a ton of flexibility and the chance to immediately stock the cupboards in a way they wouldn’t have been able to previously. With cornerback, wide receiver, tight end, linebacker (if Dansby isn’t signed) and even offensive line on the wish list, the Bills should exit the second round with two of those slots filled with two excellent talents.

There is a host of quality talent at receiver and tight end at the top of the second round along with a number of players at various positions who were originally given first round grades. So coming away with two offensive weapons for Manuel to throw to likely won’t be seen as a loss by anyone.

In fact, it might be safe to argue that the whole will be greater than the sum of its parts depending on which positions are targeted at 41, 46 and even 78 before the night is out. For a team in need of depth, securing picks that will impact the roster the most needs to be valued and the Bills did exactly that.

Bills tap Manuel as their answer at QB

EJ Manuel was the guy the Bills wanted and he’s the guy the Bills got. He just happened to go about 10-20 picks higher than most expected.

In a draft with loads of depth but short on top-end talent, there was no guarantee where the first quarterback would be taken or who that quarterback would be. Different pundits pointed in four different directions as to which team would be selecting a quarterback and which quarterback would be the first off the board. Funny enough, no one was able to hit the nail on the head (except for Joe Buscaglia).

Sitting with the eighth pick and what now appears to be a draft board whose top-ranked player was somewhat undeserving of the eighth overall selection, the Bills wisely moved back, added another valuable pick and still put themselves in a position to take their quarterback.

Buddy Nix, Doug Whaley and company deserve credit for adding another second round pick while only retreating eight selections in the first round (and another seven in the third). All the while, the player they were targeting the entire time stuck around for them at 16.

Truthfully the only issue anyone has had with the choice is that Manuel was expected to be a better fit lower in the first round or even early in the second. There’s little doubt about his overall talent, just misgivings about the pick with which he was selected.

After having a night to digest everything, the only thing that matters is that the Bills got the player they wanted while adding an additional pick to stock the cupboards with. As pointless as draft grades are, the Bills deserve a pass for their maneuvering last night.

This logic can be assigned to any player they would have decided to take at 16. If Jarvis Jones, Xavier Rhodes or Cordalle Patterson sat atop the Bills’ board and the team managed to get their guy while adding another quality pick the story would be the same. The general train of thought is that 16 was a reach for Manuel. But if that’s the player the Bills wanted then there is no such thing as a reach in their book. Continue reading

Trading Ryan Miller: Who will be looking to buy?

This will serve as the second portion to a post that I put up last week on the prospects of trading Ryan Miller

After exploring which teams may or may not make Ryan Miller’s no-trade list, I wanted to take things a step further and determine which teams may serve as suitors for the netminder. By doing so I wanted to determine which teams would have little interest in him as well.

As is well-known, Miller’s no-trade clause allows him to veto a trade to eight different teams. This may end up being a list that significantly handcuffs Darcy Regier but it could also serve as a list that does indeed limit options, but doesn’t prevent Regeir from effectively doing his job.

I decided to include the 11 different teams which Miller may veto a trade to on this list. I wanted to provide a comprehensive collection of the direction I’d assume each NHL club to take if approached about Ryan Miller.

Count the Rangers (Lundqvist) and Penguins (MAF) in a group of teams who would not provide themselves with a significant upgrade in acquiring Miller. Boston (Rask), Nashville (Rinne), Los Angeles (Quick), Vancouver (Schneider), Montreal (Price) and Detroit (Howard) are also on this list. Each of those seven teams have determined their goaltender of the future (and present) and wouldn’t provide their team with any sort of significant upgrade by bringing Miller into the fold.

There is another large group of teams who have a solid netminder and fall in the middle of the road when I consider potential suitors. They probably all lean closer to a no than a yes and here’s why: Continue reading

Trading Miller: What teams make Ryan Miller’s no-trade list?

Trade talk surrounding Ryan Miller has never been hotter as the Sabres begin to enter a rebuild and the potential to gain a handsome return for the former Vezina Winner. Acquiring valuable assets for the goaltender has become a hot topic as many question if he will return after his contract expires next summer.

What stands in the way of dealing Miller is his limited no-trade clause. Miller is able to provide a list of eight teams that he will veto a trade to, thus limiting Darcy Regier’s options. In addition, the impressive glut of quality goaltenders around the league could further limit trade partners for the Sabres.

I assume that Regier would try to avoid a similar situation to what played out with Jarome Iginla – steering the Flames towards a trade with Pittsburgh due to his no-trade clause – and simply obtain Miller’s list of eight prior to pulling the trigger on a deal. Providing the player latitude on where he wants to go will ultimately reduce the available return in a trade, Regier wouldn’t let that happen.

However, which teams might appear on that list may be difficult to determine.I figure there are three basic groupings of teams that you can pick teams from when considering the list of teams Miller wouldn’t accept a trade to. Keeping in mind that he is in more of a “win now” mode with an expiring contract, his specific interests may be geared towards perennial contenders and avoiding teams that are in the process of building.

I categorized teams as locks (teams which he will almost certainly veto) or bubble teams (teams that likely have a red flag or two). Any other team falls onto a list where he’d welcome a trade. Here’s a closer look: Continue reading

Searching for Hockey Heaven

A clarion call should go out to the league and to hockey players everywhere, that Buffalo is hockey heaven. – Ted Black, February 22, 2011

Those words will be difficult to forget. It marked the start of what was expected to be a long, happy relationship between the Buffalo Sabres and their fans. However, just over two years later things aren’t as rosy as they were on Pegula Day.

Give Terry Pegula and his management team credit, they took strides towards improving things on and off the ice. They renovated the locker room, upgraded the concourses and introduced numerous new features throughout the arena in an effort to make First Niagara Center a hockey mecca. The under construction HARBORcenter project proves just that. Pegula even gave the go-ahead to empty the Brinks truck in free agency as the Sabres went out and snagged a pair of the most sought after free agents in the 2011 crop.

Yet, here we are. The Sabres are languishing for a second-straight season, the coach has been fired and the hot topic of conversation now centers around booing. It seems like Buffalo has become Hockey Purgatory, not Hockey Heaven.

All of the good will generated in the 2011 offseason seems to have been erased by two seasons of largely lethargic hockey and below average results. Losses on the ice have transformed to frustration in the stands as the ever enlightened fan base with the high #hockeyIQ has resorted to booing at the drop of a hat at some points this year. Now, as the Sabres draw closer to a lottery selection than a playoff spot, the question I ask is: How far gone is the mindset of Hockey Heaven?

This isn’t about the incessant boos the rain down on the team almost every night. Booing isn’t a subject I care to delve into as fans will always have the liberty to do whatever they please with their tickets; particularly when the product they’re paying to see is underperforming. Of course, that doesn’t mean that piling on a group of players who only have a partial responsibility in the current situation doesn’t seem like the best way to spend that energy.

Perhaps if they at least waited until the end of a particularly horrid period, no need to jump on a team after one or two shifts in a game they’re winning.

Regardless, what I’ve begun to wonder is what the growing volatility within First Niagara Center will do for the Sabres rep with players around the league. Even with the dazzling locker room and the bottomless pockets and sincerity of the owner; how attractive is Buffalo going to be for those outside the organization? Continue reading

NHL risking oversaturation with more outdoor games

With news breaking that the 2013-14 schedule may have upwards of four outdoor games, my wheels again began to turn at the thought of the diminishing spectacle that is outdoor hockey.

The lockout prevented the 2013 Winter Classic from occurring but the Red Wings and Maple Leafs will meet on New Year’s Day 2014 to make up for their missed appointment this past January. In addition, rumors have indicated that the Canucks will play host to the Heritage Classic with additional whispers of a Kings and Ducks showdown at Dodger Stadium.

The Dodger Stadium game is expected to occur on Hockey Day in America and would potentially serve as a doubleheader with another outdoor game played at Yankee Stadium featuring the Rangers. The latter three games have yet to be confirmed, but it would appear that they’re going to be part of the plans for the 2013-14 season.

While I think the Hockey Day in America doubleheader could make for some cool television, I fear that by the time those two games roll around no one will care much for the outdoor product. As it stands now, the Winter Classic makes for a fun game to watch in the elements even though the on-ice product isn’t always up to snuff. Scheduling a pair of games to come after the Winter and Heritage Classic could seriously cheapen what has otherwise become a very cool product.

I wrote this last year about the potential for watering down what these outdoor games mean. I fear that oversaturating the market will change these from unique spectacles to just another blip on the NHL radar. Continue reading