The fifth edition of The Instigator Podcast is in the can. This week Eric (or 3rd Man In) and took on the trade deadline, what could happen around the league and which Sabres may be picked up by next Monday. Have a listen:
As always, let us know your thoughts on the product. @2ITB_Buffalo @3rdmanin
The first two trade deadline analysis posts focused on Paul Gaustad and Drew Stafford. Today’s will take a look at Brad Boyes and how his final days with the franchise may be spent.
Brad Boyes represents the first major step in the Pegula era. Boyes was acquired at the deadline without needing to send money out. It was a straight acquisition of a player expected to help the Sabres’ playoff push.
Since being acquired, Boyes has enjoyed a terrific early run, a dismal playoff showing and now a nearly invisible regular season. A great many have piled on Boyes, accusing Darcy Regier of acquiring a useless winger who makes too much money. What they are forgetting is how key he was for the team during the stretch run.
Boyes’ contributions played a large role in the Sabres sneaking into the playoffs last season. While his cold streak began at the very end of the regular season – and has continued almost a full calendar year – he was a pivotal player for a good portion of February, March and April. Of course, all of that production has disappeared and he is now an afterthought on a team over-saturated with second-line wingers.
While Boyes possesses some traits that make him an attractive option for many teams, his lack of production has destroyed any sort of value he may bring on the trade market. One way or another, Bard Boyes will be wearing a different uniform next season. The question is; can the Sabres get some return for him before losing him?
It is my contention that grabbing a fourth-round pick at the deadline for Boyes would not only be fair return for the winger, but it would ultimately be an equal trade for everything that Regier has done since last February. Remember, Boyes was traded for a second-round pick which was all but replaced by Calgary in the Regehr trade. The Sabres sent their fourth-round selection to the Islanders for Christian Ehrhoff’s negotiating rights. Buffalo could fill that void if they are able to find a trade partner for Boyes.
Keep in mind that Boyes is not a former 40-goal scorer on the downside of his career. He is caught on a roster with an abundance of offensive talent and has been bumped down the depth chart for a host of reasons. His lack of production is alarming, but putting him in a situation where ice time will not be a premium will surely spark his goal scoring touch.
Teams like Minnesota, Los Angeles, Colorado and Nashville are all in a situation where a scoring winger could do them good. Depending on the type of investment they wish to make will determine what kind of player those teams chase. I would have to assume Boyes is on their radar, at the very least. Given the thin crop of wingers expected to be available, there are surely going to be a few teams seeking his services.
Expecting to receive anything higher than a fourth seems a little foolhardy to me. The market is thin and the potential to steal picks is certainly there, but Boyes’ lack of production this year has to be concerning for any team that will be looking closely. Having the ability to replace the pick they lost to acquire Ehrhoff would not only mean that Boyes helped them make the playoffs, but that brining Ehrhoff on came with a minimal loss.
What Regier will need to determine prior to the 27 is if dropping Boyes from the roster will have any affect on the team as the year winds down. Boyes is getting time on the power play and is seeing time on the wing and at center. With a minimal chance of making the playoffs, there is no reason to hold onto a winger/center who has been forced down the depth chart.
Keep an eye on the playoff teams – or those just on the bubble – who are in need of some secondary scoring. These will also be teams who could be interested in Drew Stafford, but the price for Boyes will be significantly lower than for Stafford.
The Sabres are in a situation to sell an affordable piece (in terms of return) before losing him for nothing in July. Even selling Boyes for a loss will be a small victory.
After another brief run of losses, the Buffalo Sabres responded. In front of a (sort of) national audience, the Sabres hung six goals on the Pittsburgh Penguins on their way to a 6-2 victory.
Buffalo had dropped four-straight after piecing together a solid run that had some thinking they were capable of salvaging some portion of this season. A few dismal efforts and one blowout all but squashed that type of thinking. Yesterday’s win was one of those, “where has this been?” type of games.
Derek Roy, Jason Pominville and Christian Ehrhoff each picked up three points and Ryan Miller stood tall for his team all afternoon, stopping 24 of 26 shots.
For once there was goal support for the goaltender and goals came from both the top line and role players. The Gaustad/Kaleta/Gerbe line was brilliant and they were rewarded with the game winning goal. Ville Leino and Zack Kassian were fairly unnoticeable but each nabbed an assist. Of course Pominville continued to prove Lindy Ruff right regarding the captaincy with another MVP effort.
While this game may only prove to be evidence for trading certain pieces – Paul Gaustad won 16 of 23 draws and scored the winner – it was a refreshing reminder that the Sabres aren’t necessarily the worst team ever assembled. Sure, there are some flaws on this roster that need to be addressed. But there was promise in this season before everything hit the skids. While 2011-12 may be lost, know that with a few moves the 2012-13 team will be solid.
For all intents and purposes, last night was a road game. Montreal fans surely outnumbered Sabres fans at First Niagara Center for last night’s shootout loss. 
In what is becoming a disturbing trend, Canadian road fans are coming out in droves to support teams other than the Sabres. Obviously Buffalo’s struggles this season have a lot to do with the current supply and demand of tickets, but even this is embarrassing.
It is one thing to have a large portion of your market hail from southern Ontario, it is an entirely different situation to have roughly 9,000 fans wearing Maple Leafs or Canaidens jerseys.
The shootout loss made things worse, of course. The Sabres special teams play has gotten progressively uglier in recent weeks. The power play has become rather stagnant and the penalty kill can’t keep pucks from going in. The two power play goals Buffalo allowed came at the tail end of the respective penalties and the Sabres’ inability to clear their zone was the main culprit in the two goals.
Buffalo’s power play was equally ineffective. Granted, they were facing one of the league’s best penalty kill units. Still, to end the overtime period with an extended four-on-three opportunity is where the good teams and bad teams are separated. Tyler Myers had a great game and earned his spot for that final power play, but why leave the team’s hardest shot (Ehrhoff) on the bench?
Sabres fans can start scouting Nail Yakupov, Mikhail Grigorenko and Filip Forsberg. The Sabres currently sit last in the Eastern Conference and hold the third pick in the 2012 draft.
With only 25 games remaining on the schedule the Sabres welcome the Montreal Canadiens for their first visit to First Niagara Center, this season.
After a demoralizing 7-2 loss to Philadelphia last night, the Sabres dim hopes at a playoff berth appear dead. They’re now closer to winning the first pick in the 2012 Draft then they are to playing in the post-season for the third year in a row.
The Sabres are currently 27th in the league and would have a legitimate shot at winning the draft lottery. Depending on your opinion on highly drafted Russians will form your opinion on what the Sabres path should be the rest of the season.
If there is one thing to take away from this game, it is the fact that Ryan Miller and Carey Price always manage to provide a great head-to-head matchup. For whatever reason the two netminders usually have a good outing when facing each other. So if there is nothing else for you to enjoy, try to enjoy that.
Montreal comes in with their own skeletons in the closet. Just as the season has spiraled out of control on the Sabres, the same can be said for the Canadiens. Montreal’s $7m albatross finally scored a goal last week, their coach is being chased out of town for not speaking French and the team can’t seem to piece together many wins.
Tonight’s game – and the final two of the season series – will be played for little more than pride between these two teams. It is certainly a tough pill to swallow, but the next few games will be auditions for trades and come with the potential that the roster may be revamped.
Highlighted Matchup
Paul Gaustad, Brad Boyes, Drew Stafford and Derek Roy. Basically rope just about every available forward into the matchup for tonight. The Sabres are edging very close to sell mode and could potentially clean out a major portion of the roster. The four players listed above have had their names mentioned in different rumors through the year. At this point anyone not named Vanek or Pominville are likely on the chopping block.
Projected Goaltenders
BUF: Ryan Miller
MTL: Carey Price
Last Meeting
Sabres 3 – Canadiens 1, Bell Centre, 1/31/2012
*No stats for today’s game*
You can all but chalk this one up for the lottery. With few losses to give the Sabres have dropped three-straight and made a complete mess of one last night in Philadelphia.
The 7-2 loss pretty much locks away any hope that was left for the playoffs. What a way to end those hopes, too. A 2-0 lead after the first, a shaken opposing goalie and a generally angered fan base. The Sabres returned for the second and allowed three tallies inside seven minutes, ultimately yielding the final seven goals of the game.
Jhonas Enroth was chased after giving up three and Ryan Miller didn’t fare much better, giving up four during his time in net. Each goalie had one that they should have stopped – Simmond’s first for Enroth and Voracek’s for Miller – but each were hung out to dry for the whole night. Even on the two that should have been saved, the defense were either out to lunch (Simmonds) or the entire five-man unit were coasting back on defense (Voracek).
People bag on Miller for shrugging his shoulders after being beaten, can you blame him? Tonight was a unique circumstance of plain old ugly hockey; but when you have no support from your teammates, what else would you expect?
The mental toughness of this group – of the “core” – has long been questioned. Continually blowing leads when they can stomp their foot on their enemy’s throat have been a perpetual nuisance. If there is one thing the deadline and offseason needs to yield, it is veteran talent who will teach the young players how to play with heart.
Last week I examined the potential value Paul Gaustad could potentially bring on the trade market. Today I’ll take a look at Drew Stafford’s value as he continues to be mentioned in trade rumors.
The first thing that needs to be understood about moving Drew Stafford is that it is going to be a daunting task. Stafford just signed a lucrative four-year contract that isn’t attractive to many teams. However, he does carry some value as a scoring winger, especially if he is put in the right situation.
As prefaced in the Gaustad analysis, none of this should be considered to be more than conjecture. Short of the few trade rumors swirling about, there isn’t much concrete news surrounding Stafford’s status with the team. However, you have to think he was counted among the assumed “core” the Ted Black said the organization isn’t married to.
The injury information that surfaced this week regarding Tuomo Ruutu is great news for any teams hoping to unload wingers at the deadline. Ruutu was expected to be one of the most sought after commodities this season and his injury all but eliminates him as a target for any teams in need of a scoring winger. This, combined with Vinny Prospal’s new contract, thins the market and adds value to those who are expected to be on the market come February 27.
With Drew Stafford struggling offensively this season, and the Sabres in a position to sell pieces in hopes of retooling the roster, it would appear the winger is one player that Darcy Regier will be looking to shop. Add in the fact that top-six wingers appear to be at a premium on the market, Stafford should likely draw some suitors at the end of the month.
Exactly what type of return will Stafford bring? That is a tough call. His struggles this season cannot be ignored, he has been all but invisible for but a handful of games. He has three multi-point games and hasn’t shown any jump towards trying to end his scoring woes. What’s worse is that plenty of people – mainly fans – have issue with the apparent level of effort he brings on most nights.
I wonder if he is falling into a similar mold that Tim Connolly did in his final weeks in Buffalo. Connolly has enjoyed some success with the Leafs after getting his change of scenery via free agency. Stafford’s talent certainly remains but perhaps a mix of fan hatred, a stale coaching message and a general need for change is pulling his game down. If that is the case, I’m sure he could produce with a new team.
Stafford has plenty of redeeming qualities, however. Despite what many think, he is a young, good sized winger with the ability to score goals from many spots on the ice. Currently the only thing he may be missing is confidence. Stafford’s big season last year warranted a sizeable contract which is probably the biggest turn-off for potential trade partners.
What I will say for his potential value is that he could serve as a great option for a team looking for top-six talent for the foreseeable future, just like Los Angeles. The Kings are in desperate need of scoring and the light market could push them towards inquiring about Stafford. Other teams I could see having interest would be Columbus or Edmonton (for their rebuild) and even Nashville, who could use a little more scoring.
Does Stafford carry enough weight to get a first-round pick? I say no, but a light market could change things. I think a second-round pick and a prospect wouldn’t be a stretch with the potential of a money in-and-out trade for a roster player. This may sound ludicrous to most fans who have grown tired of Stafford’s game, but it is important to understand that he does carry value to teams throughout the league.
The one speed bump here is his contract. There is no getting around the fact that there are three more seasons of paying him $4M attached to any deal regarding Stafford. If Darcy Regier is able to find a team hoping to build on their future, Stafford could potentially serve as a worhty investment. How many teams like that are out there? That is a difficult question to answer.
Stafford’s prime strenghts do remain. He is a talents scoring winger with size. That type of player will always be a commodity in the NHL. Regardless of his production this season, Stafford has the size and history to warrant plenty of attention on the trade market.
The Buffalo Sabres season is nearing critical mass as they travel to Philadelphia tonight. With only a few losses to give, the Sabres have dropped two-straight and are getting closer to “Fail for Nail” than the playoffs.
While there is still a chance that the Sabres could climb out of the hole they sit in, it is far more likely that they end up with a lottery pick for this year’s draft. That isn’t to say that fans should lose hope, but don’t expect the moon based on the team’s current situation.
Sadly, the season has been lost. Whether it was truly the injuries, poor chemistry or a stale message; the 2011-12 campaign will likely go down as one of waste. There have been some bright spots and room for improvement remains.
What is important to remember for the remainder of the year is to not give up in the team, but to hope for achievable goals. If Darcy Regier makes a few trades at the deadline and the roster begins to trend in the right direction, all will not be lost.
The same goes for every game from here on out. There is no reason not to hope for a victory every night, that is why you’re a fan. Tonight’s game is a winnable one, believe it or not. If this collection of players can finally find the net on a consistent basis, they will win some games. Hope for goals and hope for wins, that may be all that is left at this point.
Highlighted Matchup
Buffalo’s second line. I’m not sure exactly who will comprise this trio against Philly. I’m hopeful that Tyler Ennis will be centering Thomas Vanek and Drew Stafford. But that’s just me. Regardless, there needs to be another scoring threat beyond Jason Pominville and Vanek. If moving Vanek alongside Ennis and another winger is what it takes, so be it. The Sabres need scoring and it needs to come from someone other than the players wearing #29 and #26.
Projected Goaltenders
BUF: Jhonas Enroth
PHI: Sergei Bobrovsky
Last Meeting
Sabres 4 – Flyers 5, First Niagara Center, 12/7/2011
The Sabres are inching perilously close to entering sell mode as they mustered only one goal for the second-straight game. It was the 34th game the Sabres failed to score three goals, Buffalo has won only six times when scoring fewer than three goals. 
Ryan Miller had another fine effort that was squandered by Buffalo’s offensive output. Say what you will about Buffalo’s goaltending this season, but the one constant has been the lack of offense produced by this team. Ryan Miller had a substantial slump this year, but has been dazzling since the All-Star break – and even in a few games prior. Beginning with Buffalo’s 2-1 shootout win against New Jersey immediately prior to the break, Miller has allowed 12 goals in eight games. Buffalo has scored 17 goals over that same span. Keep in mind that number is augmented by the 6-0 win over Boston.
If the dire need for scoring isn’t giving Darcy Regier a perpetual headache, I’d be shocked. The obvious conundrum of trying to swap out current players for new ones capable of changing the Sabres’ offensive output is going to be challenging. But there needs to be something done about the inability to score goals at FNC.
The Sabres had their fair share of struggles tonight. Their penalty box parade handcuffed them and the lopsided penalty numbers (Seven minors to two) were incredibly skewed. Regardless, not capitalizing on chances is a worthy excuse for a few games, but this team has been all Swedish and no Finnish this year.
Happy Valentines Day, we are two weeks away from the trade deadline and the Sabres are in must-win mode for the rest of the season.
The Sabres aren’t mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, but they are in a position where they need every point available to play in the second season.
There is a chance that Lindy Ruff will be back behind the bench, but that has yet to be confirmed. Zack Kassian appears as if he will remain on the wing with Brad Boyes and Matt Ellis for the near future. Buffalo is still without Jochen Hecht and Cody McCormick, but are otherwise healthy – particularly with regards to their skill players.
Buffalo’s lack of scoring and slow starts have been just about an epidemic this season. The Sabres need to shake that habit immediately if they expect to be playing well into April. That starts with finishing chances. Buffalo has missed on a number of glorious opportunities this season and it has reflected in the standings. Ryan Miller has been providing excellent goaltending as of late but hasn’t gotten the necessary goal support.
If Buffalo can score more than three goals for more than just two games in a row, they will have a punchers chance at reaching the postseason.
Highlighted Matchup
Jason Pominville and Thomas Vanek vs. New Jersey’s defense. There is no mistaking the two most valuable players on Buffalo’s roster this season. Vanek has been back for two games and has a goal and an assist. Pominville has the same stat line in those two games. It just so happens each assisted on the other’s goal. New Jersey’s defense has gotten pretty thin as of late and Buffalo could really take advantage of a weak set of defensemen tonight. Of course they also have to deal with Marty Brodeur.
Projected Goaltenders
BUF: Ryan Miller
NJD: Martin Brodeur
Last Meeting
Sabres 2 – Devils 1 SO, Prudential Center, 1/24/2012
Two in the Box 