The 2026 NHL Draft kicks off this evening and round one will cap a whirlwind week across the league. It’s been a while since we’ve seen a flurry of moves of this magnitude and it’s been highly entertaining to track. Over the last seven days Bowen Byram, William Eklund, Jordan Kyrou, Simon Nemec, Valeri Nichushkin and Brady Tkachuk have changed teams and eight first round draft picks have changed hands.
The rumor mill has been running at full tilt all week and has shown no signs of slowing down. If things fall the right way, we may even be treated to a few big moves during Friday’s first round. With GMs putting the pedal to the floor on offseason moves, I wanted to offer up a collection of thoughts related to this past week’s action and what is on the horizon for the Sabres and around the league.
The Robertson Saga
Elliotte Friedman reported on Thursday that Jason Robertson had turned down a sign-and-trade offer that would have rewarded him with an eight-year, $15 million contract with Seattle. Later reports suggested that he had also vetoed an extension with the St. Louis Blues. His rejection of the Kraken was a shocking development considering the massive cap outlay they were willing to commit to and now his future is firmly centered around an apparently shrinking list of suitable destinations and the potential for an offer sheet.
Robertson is one of the few players who is worth, without question, Buffalo’s newly inherited fourth overall pick. That isn’t to say there are others who would be acceptable additions should that pick be traded, but Robertson is the sort of game changing talent who is worth spending a top five pick to acquire. Logic would dictate that Buffalo may not be in the running for him. If Seattle, a no-tax state for the time being, isn’t an attractive enough destination, it would seem likely that he is aiming for a small list of teams that are firm Stanley Cup contenders, in addition to whatever other regional benefits exist. I would be over the moon if the Sabres managed to acquire him with an extension in place. Robertson would immediately level up the quality of their forward group in a meaningful way. I’m sure his list consists of the usual suspects, but his contract asking price could complicate the process for himself and the Stars. It will be far and away the most interesting story to track in the coming days.
Plugging Holes
It was fun to celebrate the big return in the Byram deal and the tidy business in securing a return for Tuch, who was bound for the free agent market. However, the holes left in the lineup by their respective departures, should not be discounted. Typically, a team that was on the precipice of a conference finals berth should be focused on supplementing their lineup and pushing the buttons to hopefully get them over the top. It’s a different animal entirely to be working on replacing a top six winger and top four defenseman on the heels of such a successful season.
Whether or not Jarmo Kekäläinen can execute that effectively will play a significant role in how competitive the Sabres are next season. The good news is that Kekäläinen filled one of those needs on Friday afternoon when he acquired Olen Zellweger from the Anaheim Ducks. In addition to the Louis Crevier addition, Buffalo’s blueline depth has been effectively restocked.
There will be more to write on the Zellweger deal, but the short reaction is extremely positive. The Sabres didn’t have to sacrifice any premium assets in the deal and receive an NHL defenseman who fits extremely well with what the Sabres ask of their defense corps. Zellweger has excellent transition numbers and looks like he’ll slot into Byram’s spot next to Owen Power where the two can lean on their strengths in zone exits and puck transporting to influence play. Don’t overlook the price that was paid here. Adding Anton Wahlberg to a value pick like 45th makes for an attractive package. It’s a fair price but generally light when you consider that Buffalo’s most valuable assets stay in house. That means Kekäläinen still has the ammunition to go big game hunting.
Smoke Around Hellebuyck and Pick Four
There has been a lot of chatter about Buffalo’s pursuit of Connor Hellebuyck. It’s a fascinating topic because Hellebuyck is one of the few starting goalies in the NHL who can offer reliably consistent results. He’s a perennial Vezina candidate and the sort of talent worth several high-end assets. It also sounds like the Jets are playing hardball (as they should). A report from Murat Ates notes that the Jets aren’t willing to include the 8th pick as part of a larger package for Hellebuyck. My best guess on what that package would look like is the 4th pick, 20th overall, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and probably one of Buffalo’s prime, young players – let’s use Noah Ostlund in this instance – in exchange for Hellebuyck and 8th overall. Buffalo might need to add another piece to this offer. But for the sake of the exercise, let’s just assume that’s the core of the deal. That’s a generally agreeable deal for both sides, in my opinion. It’s certainly a big price to pay, but Hellebuyck is one of the top five players at his position in the entire league. If you think goaltending is the final piece of the puzzle for the Sabres, and they were getting the 8th pick, it’s a deal I could accept.
One of my primary issues with pursuing Hellebuyck isn’t just the acquisition cost, but how it will affect Buffalo’s stockpile of assets. If they decide Hellebuyck is their target, that’s the last big fish they can land in this cycle. Even with Luukkonen included, Hellebuyck will eat up a lot of the extra cap space they cleared with the Byram and Greenway trade. The Sabres would also be dumping two or three of their most tradeable assets. The Zellweger trade helps plug one of their biggest holes, but you’d have to ask yourself if you would be content with Hellebuyck as the headline addition for the offseason.
I think their prime assets are better spent elsewhere, specifically on a forward. Hellebuyck would be great to find a way to stabilize their goaltending, I’m just not sure I’d want to see it done at the expense of other options.
Shopping a Well Stocked Forward Market
If Buffalo’s assets would be better spent on a forward, who should they target? It feels like half of the league has been floated in a trade rumor in one way or another, but a few names stand out among the others. Matthew Knies is one in particular. It sounds like the Leafs would ask for 4th overall for him. I’d have trouble stomaching that as the return, but Knies is a young, talented power forward. I’d want to see what the entire deal would look like if that were the case, but Knies is certainly a fascinating target. My hesitation on Knies and the fourth pick is partially related to the extra value that was extracted in the Byram deal. It’s also rooted in the value you should be aiming for with that sort of premium pick. Ideally, you’d land a truly influential, game driving player. Does Knies fit that mold? Another way you could look at it: Brady Tkachuk went for the 9th pick (plus others). Think about where Tkachuk fits within the spectrum of star players in the NHL and decide if some of the rumored trade targets, such as Knies, land above or below him in that spectrum.
One guy who I would suggest lands above Tkachuk is Dylan Larkin. Unfortunately, he seems to be relying on the standard Team USA trade list, meaning the Sabres aren’t a likely destination. I’d love to know the Sabres were pushing for him, just as I’d love to hear that they chased after Mat Barzal. Other names that have been tossed into the rumor mill: Kirill Marchenko and Alex DeBrincat. I’m fascinated to know the asking price on those two. I assume the 4th pick would be safe, but how close does 20 and Ostlund or 20 and Mrtka get you? Any one of those players would be terrific additions and ones I’d prefer the Sabres to pursue over Hellebuyck.
Is Trocheck a Target?
Vincent Trocheck’s name has come up a bit in the last few days and he’s one of the few players on the trade block who I’d have concerns about the Sabres adding. First and foremost, the reports that the Rangers want a first round pick and a young player makes him far too rich for the return. Trocheck is a very nice player, capable of eating some defensive deployment all while being strong in the faceoff circle. His counting stats were good last year while his underlying numbers have dipped. He’ll also be playing this entire season without Artemi Panarin on his wing, which ought to have an impact on his production.
I would have some serious concerns about dealing a first round pick for a player of his profile, let alone a first and a prospect or player. That feels way too steep for a few extra percentage points at the dot. For a price closer to the Zellweger deal? He’d be an adequate addition despite the regression red flags. But I’d stay far away if the rumored asking price is legitimate.
Final Thoughts for the First Round
I think it would be very cool if Buffalo’s big splash wasn’t announced until the draft had started. I’m not a huge fan of the idea of adding Hellebuyck, but I’d be relatively content with it. Assuming the package isn’t totally lopsided. But I can say with certainty that having it announced before the 4th pick would be very cool and it would make for a memorable draft night.
In a perfect world, the Sabres roll the 20th pick and a prospect or two into a package for a forward upgrade – I kind of think DeBrincat might be a slightly cheaper addition that some of the other names that have been floating around – and hold the 4th pick. I wrote about this earlier in the week, but that 4th pick presents a very unique opportunity to add a high-end talent to their pipeline while remaining in a competitive window. Especially if they get Caleb Malhotra or Viggo Björck, the Sabres would have the potential to add a real difference making forward to their group in the near future. Not too many teams get that opportunity and holding the 4th pick might be the best use of the value they have with the selection. The two forwards are far and away my favorites at that pick, but Chase Reid would be a fascinating addition assuming the top forwards are gone with the first three picks.
As for 20, I’d trade that. I’ve been on record saying the 27th pick should move and the same goes for 20th now that they moved up. Leverage that value and find a team looking for enough futures that you can land a quality forward and keep your roster extremely well rounded.
I’m excited to see what the rest of the night brings. Here’s hoping for a few more fireworks.
Two in the Box 