Sabres playoff chances

The Morning Skate: Torrid schedule continues in Boston

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Buffalo came forth with a strong bounce back effort against Carolina last night after dropping a 3-1 loss to Winnipeg on Monday.

The Sabres are now heading to Boston on a night that a pair of their playoff race competitors are in action. Toronto’s loss last night gave the Sabres more help in the playoff race. Getting a win tonight and regulation losses in Vancouver (Winnipeg) and Washington (vs. Tampa Bay) will keep the Sabres collective heads above water.

Boston has been up and down in recent weeks, playing strong hockey while laying eggs shortly thereafter. The Bruins and Sabres have played an interesting series this season, I have to wonder how Buffalo will fare against a supremely physical team with the general lack of physicality on the Sabres roster.

I fully expect to see Jhonas Enroth in net tonight. Ryan Miller has started 21-straight games and has played at least 30 minutes in the last 22 games. He has seen a ton of action in every game since last week – save for last night – and needs some time prior to this next run of games he will be sent on.

Highlighted Matchup

Sabres toughness vs. Bruins toughness. The absence of Paul Gaustad has yet to show much effect on the Sabres. Boston plays a hard game and I wonder if the Sabres have the muscle to run with a team that plays such a style. Obviously players like Chara, Lucic and Thornton will be too much to handle. But like the 6-0 win last month, Buffalo simply needs to push back and show they’re capable of not backing down.

Projected Goaltenders

BUF: Jhonas Enroth

BOS: Tim Thomas

Last Meeting

Sabres 2 – Bruins 1 SO, First Niagara Center, 2/24/2012

Double Minors: Special teams powers overtime victory

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Buffalo’s power play hasn’t been pretty as of late. But it got the job done last night against Carolina. A late 5-on-3 penalty kill kept the Sabres floating long enough to seal the game in overtime.

Realistically, it should have never gotten to that point. Cam Ward made a number of big saves in the second period to keep the Hurricanes alive. Buffalo exploded for a pair in the opening 1:02 of the period and almost had a third, but Ward was up to the task. He made 15 of his 39 saves in the second period alone, keeping the Buffalo onslaught at bay until Chad LaRose could tie the score.

Ryan Miller was stout, turning away 22 of 24 and rebounding nicely after yielding two goals on his first 17 shots. He has certainly earned a rest and should most definitely take that reprieve tomorrow night in Boston.

While it took seven attempts for the Sabres power play to tally twice, there was some good and bad to take away from the unit. Both units continued to looks disjointed with the puck and committed a number of turnovers as a result. However, if they were able to settle the possession, there was some strong puck movement high on the umbrella. Both goals came from high puck movement and point shots.

The penalty kill stayed strong and will need to remain stout as this playoff run continues. Tomorrow’s game in Boston along with Saturday and Monday carry a lot of weight for the Sabres if they hope to gain more ground.

  • For all the hooting and holler that has been done (me included) about the top line, they answered the bell last night. Thomas Vanek and Jason Pominville each had a goal and an assist in the victory. This just add fuel to my argument that Roy brings them down. Their success came as Roy went pointless, obviously they cannot coexist. Obviously I’m not serious, this line needs to extend that success in the next five days.
  • Still waiting on Cody Hodgson’s first point. No matter, I haven’t hated his game and I’m still happy with the dynamic he brings to the roster.
  • I bemoaned the thought of giving $5.5m to a player who essentially plays a strong two-way, defensive game and chips in offensively. Then I realized that is precisely what Ville Leino is currently being paid to do. Yes, he lost that faceoff clean. But his puck possession is the best on the roster and he drew a pair of late penalties due to it. His play has turned a corner these last few months, I think it is time to stop hating on him and his contract.
  • Alex Sulzer is making me a believer. He has slightly better puck skills than Mike Weber – though he seems due one bad fumble per night – and plays a fairly similar style. Depending on defensive depth next season, I could see him getting a contract over the summer. I’ve liked his game thus far.
  • As I said above, it is time to give Ryan Miller a rest. His play over the past few games has been showing some signs of fatigue. That isn’t to say I haven’t been pleased with the last three games, it is just time to give him a little more time to recuperate.

Game Summary/Event Summary

The Morning Skate: Three in four begins with visit from Hurricanes

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The Sabres arrive home after an impressive four-game road swing along the west coast to an important game against a team they have struggled with for most of the season.

Carolina rolls into town with a 2-1-0 record against Buffalo this season and can play the role of spoiler tonight if they take two points from the Sabres. Buffalo could only enjoy one off day from their grueling western swing as they’re back with three games in four nights, beginning today.

Lindy Ruff is faced with a couple tough decisions for tonight’s game. The first is which goaltender to start. The second is what to do with his stagnant top line.

The goaltending question is rooted in two schools of thought. Do you roll your starter against the weaker opponent and the backup on the second night of the back-to-back set? Or you can roll out Jhonas Enroth against a team he owns while giving Miller the additional day off.

My money is on choice number one. Based on the way Lindy Ruff operates, he will want to put his team in the best position to earn points. In my opinion, that is why he will roll out Miller against the Canes. That also keeps him away from a hostile atmosphere in Boston the next night. Is that the right choice? I say no.

Enroth’s career numbers against Carolina are phenomenal, let him build on that history and shutdown the Canes. They’re a bottom feeder; don’t waste one of Miller’s starts on them. Not to mention, getting Miller an extra day of rest will do more for the long-term success of this unlikely playoff run. Plus, I don’t take too much stock in trying to keep Miller from a tough environment like the TD Garden will be on Thursday. He is mentally tough (most goalies are) enough not to be bothered with what the fans will be doing that day, it shouldn’t be too big of an issue.

As for Ruff’s other tough task, he needs to find a solution to the scoring woes of his top line. It is a pretty simple concept. If they’re not playing well together, split them up. Buffalo needs a solid effort tonight. A quick start and sustained pressure should get the job done against Carolina.

Highlighted Matchup

Vanek/Roy/Pominville. If these guys aren’t broken up prior to the morning skate, they will be the trip to watch. It is my opinion that Roy would be better served in a checking role with Nathan Gerbe and Pat Kaleta. Whether Ville Leino or Cody Hodgson is the best fit for the center role on this line is debatable. Regardless, I feel that Roy’s presence often brings down Vanek’s game and the virus seems to have spread to Pominville as well.

Projected Goaltenders

BUF: Jhonas Enroth

CAR: Brian Boucher

Last Meeting

Sabres 2 – Hurricanes 4, RBC Center, 1/6/2012

Double Minors: Sabres come up short when it counts

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It was the biggest game of the season, to date, and the Sabres needed a strong showing. They didn’t get one. Buffalo looked flat for most of the game as they fell to the Winnipeg Jets 3-1.

The Sabres were facing a tough battle from the get-go. The final game of a rough west coast trip, in one of the league’s loudest barns against a team they are chasing for a playoff spot. Perhaps the deck was stack in the Jet’ favor before the puck dropped, but there was little push from Buffalo’s side of the table all night.

I don’t doubt that the fatigue factor played a major role in Buffalo’s performance, but it was just another one of those games where this group of players didn’t show up when they needed to. That isn’t necessarily a blanket statement, either. Ryan Miller had yet another impressive game (28 saves) and certainly gave his team a chance to get a victory. For the second-straight game in Winnipeg, Miller was strong and his team was flat.

Once again the top line of Thomas Vanek, Derek Roy and Jason Pominville were non-existent and turned a pair of three-on-two rushes into odd-man goals for the Jets. Lindy Ruff responded by plunking Vanek on the bench and using Roy as his extra attacker late in the game (#LindyLogic).

There can’t be too much overreacting put into this loss. Yes, it was a pivotal game. No, it doesn’t mean the season is over. Bottom line, it makes the journey to eighth that much harder and things would be a whole lot different if this road trip was finished 4-0-0.

  • It is about time Jhonas Enroth play an entire hockey game. Lindy Ruff was sort of forced into sticking with Miller. A pair of shutouts and generally awesome hockey kept Buffalo’s starter off the bench. However, running MIller into the ground will accomplish little. Show faith in Enroth and let him reward your decision. Two effective goaltenders are always better than one. I don’t care if Enroth plays Wednesday or Thursday, just get him in a game and do it soon.
  • Also, with regards to Lindy’s decision making. It is about time to do a little line shuffling. Whether or not Derek Roy’s presence has been what dragged down Vanek and Pominville, I think it is time for a new look. Cody Hodgson has been strong with Tyler Ennis and Drew Stafford, but maybe he can help spark Buffalo’s two best scorers. Try this on for size: 26/19/29 – 23/63/21 – 42/9/36 – 37/22/78.
  • Robyn Regehr needs to hit Chris Thorburn on that third goal. Ryan Miller is standing his ground as a third-line grinder came to the crease with no option. Miller’s read is to hold his position and make the easy save. It is Regehr’s responsibility to deny the inside ice for Thorburn, that didn’t happen and suddenly Thorburn is the new Gretzky.
  • To that point, I have noticed the NBCSN crew getting on every pretty play more and more. I usually appreciate what Pierre McGuire has to say, but he is getting a little over the top with the major junior, college and European development references. He has a plethora of hockey knowledge, just use that and inform the viewers as to what they’re watching.
  • It is hard to pinpoint exactly who was good and who wasn’t for the Sabres. Mainly because most of the team wasn’t very good. All six defensemen had their struggles and most of the forwards were average. It was just a flat night for this team and they paid for it.
  • I love the fact that the MTS Centre crowd is loud and raucous for the entire game. It is a perfect combination of a hockey-mad city, loud fans and I would assume timely video/music choices. I’ll wait to see if the atmosphere at FNC changes for the better, but I don’t think many Sabres fans have it in them.

Game Summary/Event Summary

The Morning Skate: Playoff position on the line in Winnipeg

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After two months of poor hockey and numerous losses, the Sabres are in a position to get back into a playoff spot against Winnipeg. With a regulation win the Sabres will be in a tie for eighth place. A win tonight would be another major step in an impressive, improbable turnaround.

Ryan Miller will be back in net again tonight. His game has been in phenomenal shape as of late, but I fear that his endurance is running low after a full run of hockey since the All Star break. In the one game he had off, he played 30 minutes after Jhonas Enroth was pulled in Philadelphia.I don’t doubt Miller will still have a strong outing, I just wonder if he had been better rested if his play would be that much better. I suppose this is still in line with the goaltending schedule.

Buffalo needs a 60-minute effort. They had three tough games on little rest on the West coast, tonight’s game comes after some rest for a road weary team. The Sabres top line has been absent as of late and that needs to change immediately. Without the production of Vanek and Pominville, the mountain that is the playoff race gets that much steeper.

Highlighted Matchup

Vanek/Roy/Pominville. This line has been slumping for a short period of time. It is my opinion that Derek Roy has negatively impacted the play of his two wingers. Regardless of the true cause of this slump, it needs to be snapped. Vanek and Pominville have been Buffalo’s MVPs all season. Tonight would be a great day to for them to turn a corner.

Projected Goaltenders

BUF: Ryan Miller

WPG: Ondrej Pavelec

Last Meeting

Sabres 1 – Jets 4, MTS Centre, 1/19/2012

The Morning Skate: Immediate reunion for Kassian and Hodgson

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Tonight’s reunion for Cody Hodgson, Alexander Sulzer, Zack Kassian and Marc-Andre Gragnani isn’t likely to be too friendly. They will face their former teams only five day after the four players were involved in the most surprising trade of the 2012 deadline.

Hodgson has already shown his two-way skill and offensive prowess while centering Tyler Ennis and Drew Stafford. The needs he addressed for the Sabres were exactly what has been missing for most of the season. The same can be said for Kassian in Vancouver. His physical edge is something the Canucks have been looking to build on and he should provide a nice bit of sandpaper for the playoffs.

It is my contention that the culture of the Sabres organization wasn’t suited to bring out the best in Kassian. His bruising style is the reason they drafted him. However, I don’t think the locker room has any veterans who can help young players identify the need to play 100% every night. Additionally, I don’t think the coaching staff preaches the need to finish checks and bury opponents. Considering that, you would see why Kassian’s physical game was often missing. Losing Kassian’s toughness is ok, that is something that can be purchased via free agency.

Tonight is just another arduous matchup for the Sabres. They need every point possible and are on a western road swing against some of the Western Conference’s best teams. Vancouver is playing brilliant hockey and is a deep, talented team. This is a game that will truly test Buffalo’s hot streak.

I’d expect to see Jhonas Enroth in net, for reasons I name later. Vancouver could roll out either of their goaltenders and give the Sabres fits. Buffalo beat Vancouver in OT last season, but Vancouver’s depth is likely to give the Sabres a lot of trouble tonight. For a road trip that has been tough enough, it seems to get more difficult as it continues.

Highlighted Matchup

Jhonas Enroth. He almost has to play tonight. Ryan Miller was extremely busy on Wednesday and Thursday. Miller also suffered some sort of injury late in the third period on Thursday. Whatever was hurt (ankle, calf etc.) doesn’t seem to be serious. But I’d play it safe, especially considering the hot streak he has been on. Enroth needs to spell his partner and a day off against a dangerous Canucks team might be just what the doctor ordered for Miller. Not to mention, he would be fully rested for Monday’s pivotal game against Winnipeg. Still, don’t be surprised if Ruff trots Miller out yet again. He still doesn’t seem to have a grasp on rotating his goaltenders.

Projected Goaltenders

BUF: Jhonas Enroth

VAN: Roberto Luongo

Last Meeting

Sabres 4 – Canucks 3, HSBC Arena, 11/15/2011

*no stats for tonight*

Double Minors: Miller steals another for Buffalo

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Ryan Miller has been playing at a level reminiscent of his 2009-10 season. The last two nights of hockey have been nothing short of spectacular. After stopping 43 shots against Anaheim on Wednesday (20 in the 3rd), Miller turned away 39 more last night against San Jose.

Buffalo inched two points closer to a playoff spot on the back of Miller. Drew Stafford picked up the lone goal for Buffalo in the victory. The story again was Miller’s stellar play, but his collision with Pat Kaleta late in the third period may end up being the most important storyline.

After making a solid glove save on Brent Burns, Miller was struck by Kaleta as he slid into the goaltender on the tail end of the play. It looked as if Kaleta was helped by Ryane Clowe a little on the way, his momentum carried Miller’s right leg hard into the post. From what I could tell, Miller’s contact with the post was fairly significant. He struggled a bit and avoided pushing with his right leg for the remainder of the game.

Bottom line, if Miller is injured in any significant way, the chances of the Sabres sneaking into a playoff spot would seem to be unlikely. I’ll hold out to see more evidence, but I’m hoping that the pain he was dealing with didn’t go beyond the third period.

The Sabres do need to find a way to start putting pucks in the net on a regular basis. Miller’s play has been stellar, but Buffalo can’t count on Miller to steal every point for the rest of the season.The Sabres have found a way to play decent defensive hockey without Paul Gaustad on the roster, it doesn’t seem as if they miss him too much just yet. But they were chasing quite a bit in the third period and it would seem as if they could use a solid defensive center at times like that.

  • I’m glad to see Ryan Miller fully turn his game around. Obviously he is finally healthy and focused on his game. Good on him to have gotten back to the style of goaltending that made many consider him to be elite.
  • Ville Leino is a waste playing center. I like his game, he had turned things around playing wing with Buffalo’s better forwards. But his game is wasted, especially at center on a checking line. He’s stuck in a tough situation based on the center and wing depth, but I’d like to see some sort of solution for getting his offense going.
  • Drew Stafford has gotten things going a bit. He’s always been a streaky scorer and it looks like he has finally hit a streak. It has been two games, but putting him with Cody Hodgson looks like a great decision.
  • Hodgson is showing some of the skills that made him the tenth overall pick in 2008. He’s got slick hands and strong hockey sense. I’ve loved his game these last two nights. Hopefully the goals aren’t too far behind.
  • Despite Tyler Myers having a couple rough nights carrying the puck, the Sabres defense has remained strong as a unit. Hopefully Robyn Regehr doesn’t miss any time due to the injury he suffered in the second period.
  • Something needs to be done about Buffalo’s power play. The unit has been giving up chances and has been disjointed entering the zone and setting up their rotation. Both units need to find some consistency and soon (I am well aware of the numbers, too). The power play very well could make or break this playoff run.

Game Summary/Event Summary

 

The Morning Skate: Western swing heads north to San Jose

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The Buffalo Sabres unlikely push for a playoff spot continues to get tougher. While the Sabres are doing their part – 8-3-3 since the All-Star break – they continue to see formidable opponents on a nightly basis.

After dispatching the surging Ducks last night, Buffalo is back against another Western Conference foe tonight in San Jose. The Sabres follow tonight’s game with a Saturday showdown with Vancouver, Monday’s game against Winnipeg and another set of Wednesday/Thursday back-to-back games next week.

The Sabres are in need of every point available but are in the midst of a stretch that sees them play six games in nine nights. Their last regulation loss came against Philadelphia, also the last game in which Jhonas Enroth started. The rookie was hardly to blame for the loss, but the Sabres need a greater contribution from him if they hope to continue this surge.

Despite Ryan Miller’s shutout last night, I would start Enroth today. The Canucks offer no more relief than the Sharks do and Enroth will likely be called upon next week against either the Hurricanes (Wednesday) or the Bruins (Thursday). Knowing how Lindy Ruff operates, Miller will be in net tonight. I would say it is the wrong move, get him some rest now. Miller played the last set of back-to-back games and needs to maintain this tremendous stretch of hockey he is playing.

Lindy Ruff needs to find the faith that Enroth instilled in him last season and early this year. Enroth is capable of being a 2A goalie at the minimum in the NHL. Now it is on Ruff to stick with his schedule and let Enroth be that player.

The Sabres face a strong Sharks squad that just had one of their young stars traded from the lineup in hopes of finding a little more grit and pugnacity for their own playoff push. San Jose is a deep roster with strong goaltending. The Sabres saw backup Antero Niittymaki last season, expect to see Antti Niemi tonight. His game is about blocking and simply getting in the way. For some reason the Sabres struggle with these goaltenders.

Highlighted Matchup

Lindy Ruff vs. Joe Thornton & Co. Buffalo no longer has a formidable shutdown line to match their opponents’ studs. I find it hard to believe that Ville Leino, Nathan Gerbe and Patrick Kaleta are even Ruff’s second choice for a proper checking line. I would think that Robyn Regehr and Andrej Sekera will be the primary duo tasked with matching San Jose’s top line.

Projected Goaltenders

BUF: Jhonas Enroth

SJ: Antti Niemi

Last Meeting:

Sabres 3 – Sharks 0, HP Pavilion, 1/6/2011

Double Minors: Point slips away as Sabres prepare for the deadline

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Two different one-goal leads escaped the Sabres last night as did a precious point for their playoff run. Ryan Callahan scored the deciding goal against the Sabres for the third time this season, this time in OT.

Pat Kaleta had a pretty rough night, getting beaten on Marian Gaborik’s game tying tally and then being undressed by Callahan on the winner. For the first time in a number of games, the Sabres allowed their opponents dangerous scorers in alone on their goalie. For the first time in  number of games they paid dearly.

Ryan Miller certainly wasn’t the goalie who has ran up sparkling numbers since January 1, he also received less support than he has recently. Without Miller’s dazzling play in the first period, the game had great potential to be a blowout. Miller made 14 of his 25 saves in the opening stanza.

Another ugly trait reared its head last night. While the Sabres got a pair of goals from a forward, they only managed a handful of shots on goal. Drew Stafford potted two goals, but the Sabres only managed to direct 17 more shots towards Henrik Lundqvist. The last time Buffalo had a shooting effort that was so poor, Miller bailed them out with a shootout win against New Jersey. For the record, the Sabres only manged 14 shots that night.

With the deadline coming tomorrow afternoon, Darcy Regier still needs to address the fact that his forwards are incapable of performing on a consistent basis. It would seem that Miller has truly settled into a groove and the top-six defensemen are performing admirably. However, the forwards have been out to lunch for a good portion of the season. Thomas Vanek and Jason Pominville are the only two who have been consistently effective all season. Tyler Ennis has turned the corner in his new role at center, but still isn’t going to have fantastic numbers. Ville Leino has shown flashes of brilliance, but still hasn’t come around and the other scorers – Derek Roy, Stafford and even Nathan Gerbe – have been largely invisible this season.

If changes are made to the top six, there could still be a legitimate chance at creating enough offense to turn this season around. Continue reading →

The Morning Skate: Sabres final skate prior to deadline

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The Buffalo Sabres have been able to roll together an impressive run of hockey as of late. Looking back to early January, they were on a major skid, couldn’t score goals and weren’t supporting their goaltenders. But as the All-Star break approached they began turning things around. A couple sets of five-game stretches have kept the playoffs within reach and the Sabres can take another step forward tonight in New York.

Well, maybe it will be a lateral step.

Each team the Sabres are chasing are in action this evening. A pair (Toronto and Washington) play each other. Since Buffalo won’t be able to get too much help in terms of gaining ground, they will need to be content with keeping their head above water.

Getting wins last night and Tuesday all but guarantee the Sabres won’t be selling at the deadline. Consider Paul Gaustad safe from any suitors that may come calling. Derek Roy and Drew Stafford probably fall into the same category. Darcy Regier is in a position where he needs to make a few significant moves, but his team is in a position where those moves could potentially be detrimental.

The Sabres will not only see one of the league’s best teams tonight, they will also need to deal with one of the best goaltenders. I won’t be surprised if Ryan Miller is in net to face Henrik Lundqvist, but Lindy Ruff should know Miller needs to rest prior to next week’s road trip. Continue reading →