Buffalo Sabres

Doube Minors: Waiting for answers

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You can all but chalk this one up for the lottery. With few losses to give the Sabres have dropped three-straight and made a complete mess of one last night in Philadelphia.

The 7-2 loss pretty much locks away any hope that was left for the playoffs. What a way to end those hopes, too. A 2-0 lead after the first, a shaken opposing goalie and a generally angered fan base. The Sabres returned for the second and allowed three tallies inside seven minutes, ultimately yielding the final seven goals of the game.

Jhonas Enroth was chased after giving up three and Ryan Miller didn’t fare much better, giving up four during his time in net. Each goalie had one that they should have stopped – Simmond’s first for Enroth and Voracek’s for Miller – but each were hung out to dry for the whole night. Even on the two that should have been saved, the defense were either out to lunch (Simmonds) or the entire five-man unit were coasting back on defense (Voracek).

People bag on Miller for shrugging his shoulders after being beaten, can you blame him? Tonight was a unique circumstance of plain old ugly hockey; but when you have no support from your teammates, what else would you expect?

The mental toughness of this group – of the “core” – has long been questioned. Continually blowing leads when they can stomp their foot on their enemy’s throat have been a perpetual nuisance. If there is one thing the deadline and offseason needs to yield, it is veteran talent who will teach the young players how to play with heart.

  • A likely conversation between either Ryan Miller or Jhonas Enroth (maybe both) with their agent last night
  • Tyler Myers made a great feed on Jason Pominville’s goal in the first. He then proceeded to play below average defense the rest of the night. A nice pass, but his defensive play could use some improvement.
  • Speaking of the team MVPs. Thomas Vanek and Pominville continue to amaze. Another pair of goals from the team leaders while the rest of the forwards sit back and watch. If I was a player wearing a different number than 26 or 29, I’d be fearful of finding a new apartment in the next two weeks.
  • Moving Vanek to the right wing with Tyler Ennis was a wise move. Keep Ville Leino in a top-six role and let him feed off the talent on his line. That is the only way you’re going to see results from him. His play has been markedly iimproved since his promotion.
  • All six defensemen were in rough shape last night. The penalty kill coverage was poor and at even strength they were lost. It was a team failure defensively and the goaltenders had to pay. It is truly difficult watching a team sleepwalk through a game the way Buffalo did tonight.
  • Give some ups to Zack Kassian. He threw with one of Philly’s goons and came out a winner. Tom Sestito threw plenty of punches but missed on most. Kassian threw a few and landed a pair of bombs. Kassian needs to keep the grit in his game, especially if he is to see big minutes beyond the deadline.

Game Summary/Event Summary

Deadline preview: Evaluating Drew Stafford’s value

Chris Ostrander2 Comments

Last week I examined the potential value Paul Gaustad could potentially bring on the trade market. Today I’ll take a look at Drew Stafford’s value as he continues to be mentioned in trade rumors.

The first thing that needs to be understood about moving Drew Stafford is that it is going to be a daunting task. Stafford just signed a lucrative four-year contract that isn’t attractive to many teams. However, he does carry some value as a scoring winger, especially if he is put in the right situation.

As prefaced in the Gaustad analysis, none of this should be considered to be more than conjecture. Short of the few trade rumors swirling about, there isn’t much concrete news surrounding Stafford’s status with the team. However, you have to think he was counted among the assumed “core” the Ted Black said the organization isn’t married to.

The injury information that surfaced this week regarding Tuomo Ruutu is great news for any teams hoping to unload wingers at the deadline. Ruutu was expected to be one of the most sought after commodities this season and his injury all but eliminates him as a target for any teams in need of a scoring winger. This, combined with Vinny Prospal’s new contract, thins the market and adds value to those who are expected to be on the market come February 27.

With Drew Stafford struggling offensively this season, and the Sabres in a position to sell pieces in hopes of retooling the roster, it would appear the winger is one player that Darcy Regier will be looking to shop. Add in the fact that top-six wingers appear to be at a premium on the market, Stafford should likely draw some suitors at the end of the month.

Exactly what type of return will Stafford bring? That is a tough call. His struggles this season cannot be ignored, he has been all but invisible for but a handful of games. He has three multi-point games and hasn’t shown any jump towards trying to end his scoring woes. What’s worse is that plenty of people – mainly fans – have issue with the apparent level of effort he brings on most nights.

I wonder if he is falling into a similar mold that Tim Connolly did in his final weeks in Buffalo. Connolly has enjoyed some success with the Leafs after getting his change of scenery via free agency. Stafford’s talent certainly remains but perhaps a mix of fan hatred, a stale coaching message and a general need for change is pulling his game down. If that is the case, I’m sure he could produce with a new team.

Stafford has plenty of redeeming qualities, however. Despite what many think, he is a young, good sized winger with the ability to score goals from many spots on the ice. Currently the only thing he may be missing is confidence. Stafford’s big season last year warranted a sizeable contract which is probably the biggest turn-off for potential trade partners.

What I will say for his potential value is that he could serve as a great option for a team looking for top-six talent for the foreseeable future, just like Los Angeles. The Kings are in desperate need of scoring and the light market could push them towards inquiring about Stafford. Other teams I could see having interest would be Columbus or Edmonton (for their rebuild) and even Nashville, who could use a little more scoring.

Does Stafford carry enough weight to get a first-round pick? I say no, but a light market could change things. I think a second-round pick and a prospect wouldn’t be a stretch with the potential of a money in-and-out trade for a roster player. This may sound ludicrous to most fans who have grown tired of Stafford’s game, but it is important to understand that he does carry value to teams throughout the league.

The one speed bump here is his contract. There is no getting around the fact that there are three more seasons of paying him $4M attached to any deal regarding Stafford. If Darcy Regier is able to find a team hoping to build on their future, Stafford could potentially serve as a worhty investment. How many teams like that are out there? That is a difficult question to answer.

Stafford’s prime strenghts do remain. He is a talents scoring winger with size. That type of player will always be a commodity in the NHL. Regardless of his production this season, Stafford has the size and history to warrant plenty of attention on the trade market.

The Morning Skate: Sabres nearing brink as road test in Philly looms

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The Buffalo Sabres season is nearing critical mass as they travel to Philadelphia tonight. With only a few losses to give, the Sabres have dropped two-straight and are getting closer to “Fail for Nail” than the playoffs.

While there is still a chance that the Sabres could climb out of the hole they sit in, it is far more likely that they end up with a lottery pick for this year’s draft. That isn’t to say that fans should lose hope, but don’t expect the moon based on the team’s current situation.

Sadly, the season has been lost. Whether it was truly the injuries, poor chemistry or a stale message; the 2011-12 campaign will likely go down as one of waste. There have been some bright spots and room for improvement remains.

What is important to remember for the remainder of the year is to not give up in the team, but to hope for achievable goals. If Darcy Regier makes a few trades at the deadline and the roster begins to trend in the right direction, all will not be lost.

The same goes for every game from here on out. There is no reason not to hope for a victory every night, that is why you’re a fan. Tonight’s game is a winnable one, believe it or not. If this collection of players can finally find the net on a consistent basis, they will win some games. Hope for goals and hope for wins, that may be all that is left at this point.

Highlighted Matchup

Buffalo’s second line. I’m not sure exactly who will comprise this trio against Philly. I’m hopeful that Tyler Ennis will be centering Thomas Vanek and Drew Stafford. But that’s just me. Regardless, there needs to be another scoring threat beyond Jason Pominville and Vanek. If moving Vanek alongside Ennis and another winger is what it takes, so be it. The Sabres need scoring and it needs to come from someone other than the players wearing #29 and #26.

Projected Goaltenders

BUF: Jhonas Enroth

PHI: Sergei Bobrovsky

Last Meeting

Sabres 4 – Flyers 5, First Niagara Center, 12/7/2011

Double Minors: Offense falls short as playoff hopes dwindle

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The Sabres are inching perilously close to entering sell mode as they mustered only one goal for the second-straight game. It was the 34th game the Sabres failed to score three goals, Buffalo has won only six times when scoring fewer than three goals.

Ryan Miller had another fine effort that was squandered by Buffalo’s offensive output. Say what you will about Buffalo’s goaltending this season, but the one constant has been the lack of offense produced by this team. Ryan Miller had a substantial slump this year, but has been dazzling since the All-Star break – and even in a few games prior. Beginning with Buffalo’s 2-1 shootout win against New Jersey immediately prior to the break, Miller has allowed 12 goals in eight games. Buffalo has scored 17 goals over that same span. Keep in mind that number is augmented by the 6-0 win over Boston.

If the dire need for scoring isn’t giving Darcy Regier a perpetual headache, I’d be shocked. The obvious conundrum of trying to swap out current players for new ones capable of changing the Sabres’ offensive output is going to be challenging. But there needs to be something done about the inability to score goals at FNC.

The Sabres had their fair share of struggles tonight. Their penalty box parade handcuffed them and the lopsided penalty numbers (Seven minors to two) were incredibly skewed. Regardless, not capitalizing on chances is a worthy excuse for a few games, but this team has been all Swedish and no Finnish this year.

  • It is convenient the Marty Brodeur brings his A-game against the Sabres every game, even in an off-year. He robbed the Sabres on multiple occasions and has been sterling for the entire season series.
  • Based on the video, the Myers/Sekera pairing had a rough night. Obviously Sekera’s deflection and his gaffe at the blue line are glaring errors. But the pair as a whole struggled. I’d assume you see Myers and Ehrhoff back together once Ehrhoff is healthy.
  • Regardless if Thomas Vanek scored that goal or not, he and Jason Pominville remain the only two viable offensive threats the Sabres have. As I said, something will need to be done soon and I’m hopeful the trade deadline is where the retooling begins.
  • Zack Kassian still has a lot to learn. I’m not quite sure if he can learn it by getting nine minutes a night. He is showing flashes that he has the skill this team is looking for. I maintain that he needs a guiding force that can get him to play that gritty game on a nightly basis.
  • Second thought on Kassian. Is it possible that his recall was motivated by potential trade suitors? There is a chance that he is being showcased or that he will be stepping up to a bigger role if certain players are moved.
  • The penalty situation the Sabres have found them in recently has not been helpful. It seems as if they have been on the wrong side of the coin for each of their last few games. Tonight in particular was tough to swallow. Granted, Buffalo did it to themselves with lazy, offensive zone penalties.
  • I don’t see the Sabres remaining in a position to make a playoff push any longer. The few losses they have to give are evaporating quickly and they don’t appear to have the offense necessary to make a proper push. The deadline is looming, lets see what moves are made.

Game Summary/Event Summary

The Morning Skate: No room for error against Devils

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Happy Valentines Day, we are two weeks away from the trade deadline and the Sabres are in must-win mode for the rest of the season.

The Sabres aren’t mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, but they are in a position where they need every point available to play in the second season.

There is a chance that Lindy Ruff will be back behind the bench, but that has yet to be confirmed. Zack Kassian appears as if he will remain on the wing with Brad Boyes and Matt Ellis for the near future. Buffalo is still without Jochen Hecht and Cody McCormick, but are otherwise healthy – particularly with regards to their skill players.

Buffalo’s lack of scoring and slow starts have been just about an epidemic this season. The Sabres need to shake that habit immediately if they expect to be playing well into April. That starts with finishing chances. Buffalo has missed on a number of glorious opportunities this season and it has reflected in the standings. Ryan Miller has been providing excellent goaltending as of late but hasn’t gotten the necessary goal support.

If Buffalo can score more than three goals for more than just two games in a row, they will have a punchers chance at reaching the postseason.

Highlighted Matchup

Jason Pominville and Thomas Vanek vs. New Jersey’s defense. There is no mistaking the two most valuable players on Buffalo’s roster this season. Vanek has been back for two games and has a goal and an assist. Pominville has the same stat line in those two games. It just so happens each assisted on the other’s goal. New Jersey’s defense has gotten pretty thin as of late and Buffalo could really take advantage of a weak set of defensemen tonight. Of course they also have to deal with Marty Brodeur.

Projected Goaltenders

BUF: Ryan Miller

NJD: Martin Brodeur

Last Meeting

Sabres 2 – Devils 1 SO, Prudential Center, 1/24/2012

The Instigator Podcast 1.4 – IQ Test

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Here is episode number four of The Instigator Podcast. This week we discuss the ever popular Twitter topic of hockey IQ, take Twitter questions regarding direction for the roster and take on plus/minus yet again.

As always, comments and criticism are encouraged. Catch us here: @2ITB_Buffalo or @3rdmanin

Double Minors: Slow starts leads to end of point streak

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On Friday night the Buffalo Sabres managed to claw their way to overtime after trailing the Dallas Stars by a pair. The same script didn’t play out on Saturday as Buffalo fell to Tampa Bay, 2-1.

We didn’t play well enough. I thought the second period, we were terrible. We didn’t play the game quick enough and didn’t make enough plays. ~ Lindy Ruff

The loss, coupled with Montreal’s thrashing of the Leafs will temporarily drop Buffalo to 14th in the East. That alone illustrates the need to get points on a nightly basis for the Sabres. Two points obviously being ideal (and somewhat necessary) but at least getting to overtime is almost a necessity.

Buffalo was hurt by a criminally slow start for the second-straight evening. The Sabres played 40 minutes of flat hockey and paid with a 2-0 deficit entering the third period. Another carry-over from Friday was Buffalo’s spark in the third period. The Sabres fired 14 of their 27 shots in the final frame and threatened to beat Mathieu Garon numerous times. Christian Ehrhoff, Zack Kassian and Jason Pominville had the best looks at a beating the career backup.

Pominville found the net for the 20th time this season, receiving a nice setup from Thomas Vanek. What else is new? Vanek was put back on the left wing with Pominville and Derek Roy after reprising his role with Tyler Ennis and Drew Stafford to begin the game.

The success that Pominville and Vanek have enjoyed this season has been compounded on all year, there is no denying the pair’s stellar play. In fact, Pominville nearly provided all the scoring Buffalo needed for a tie but he was robbed by Mathieu Garon. Without help from other forwards, this team will still struggle to win games. That is another statement which has gotten plenty of circulation this year.

Ryan Miller continued his stellar play tonight, stopping 26 of the 28 shots he faced. I’ll eat some crow for thinking Jhonas Enroth should have gotten the start, but I’m not mad that Miller has continued to play at an all-world level.

The Sabres are back in action on Valentines Day as they host the Devils. Tuesday’s game becomes a must win after a point was squandered tonight.

  • As Lindy Ruff said, the second period killed Buffalo. Sloppy play was evident through the first period, but the second period was particularly ugly. Steve Downie cashed in after his line with Teddy Purcell and Steven Stamkos sustained possession for some time. Downie had all day to stop Victor Hedman’s feed from the point and beat Miller. Tyler Myers was caught on the wrong side of his goalie after his partner floated well above the faceoff dot on the play.
  • Giving Steven Stamkos multiple looks from the top of the circles is a bad thing. It is particularly bad when he is given a one-timer on a two-on-one. Not too many goalies are coming up with that save.
  • Christian Ehrhoff was two different players tonight. He had a rough go for the first two periods but was easily Buffalo’s best defenseman in the third. He was still vicitmized more than his partner on the two goals. He was too high on the first and was way up ice on the game-winner.
  • Reuniting Pominville, Roy and Vanek was the right choice. I’m interested to see the choice Ruff makes with Leino. He has been good playing in a definitive role. Placing him on the wing with Ennis and Stafford seems to make the most sense here.
  • I liked Zack Kassian tonight. He just missed a beautiful feed from Andrej Sekera in the third. In his defense it was a hard sauce that was going to be real tough to handle. He was credited with three hits (I had him for four or five) and three takeaways. He was dominant below the goal line – yet again – and showed a solid jump. It was the type of game you want to see from him.
  • I’ve loved Ryan Miller’s game of late. He is playing stellar hockey. He was the main reason this game was 2-1. Had Buffalo earned a win, he would have been a star. However, he is going to be due a rest soon and this is a tricky week for scheduling goalies. Mid-week back-to-back games (Thursday and Friday) along with a Sunday matinee makes things tricky. I hate playing Miller against the Penguins and I think Lindy Ruff would be wise to avoid making that decision. Start Miller all three games this week if you must, but I would keep him on the bench on Sunday.

Game Summary/Event Summary

The Morning Skate: Weekend series capped with visit from Bolts

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The only thing the Buffalo Sabres need to be worried about at this moment is winning hockey games. They started too far out of the playoff hunt to discuss games in hand or how far behind they are from the team’s they’re chasing. Just winning games and getting points is all that should matter.

Tonight’s game against Tampa Bay presents the chance for a clean weekend sweep of four points and to continue the run of good hockey the team has played since the All-Star break.

The Lightning are a rested bunch. They played Thursday in New York, stayed in Buffalo all day yesterday and will have had plenty of time to rest as they prepare for this evening’s tilt. Tampa lost Thursday’s game in overtime 4-3.

While Buffalo did go a full 65 minutes last night, they didn’t do too much work in the opening 40 minutes of play. Hopefully there is some gas in the tank for tonight. Add in the fact that Luke Adam will be inserted in the place of Cody McCormick, which provides a fresh set of legs.

Buffalo has not played Tampa well this season. They were shutout in Florida before dropping a 4-3 loss on the return trip in Buffalo. Tonight’s game has a lot more weight behind it than the previous two meetings. Then the Sabres were still riding the cushion of their strong start. Now they are a desperate bunch in need of a long win streak.

Highlighted Matchup

Buffalo’s forwards vs. Tampa’s trap. The Sabres had trouble engaging offensively last night as Dallas choked out the neutral zone. Tampa will do that, and more tonight. The Sabres were able to dump and chase yesterday but will not have the same luxury tonight with more fatigue weighing them down. The Sabres still need to effectively break the trap to win tonight.

Projected Goaltenders

BUF: Jhonas Enroth

TBL: Mathieu Garon

Last Meeting

Sabres 3 – Lightning 4, First Niagara Center, 10/25/2011

 

Double Minors: Sabres find a way to get two more

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Make it 11 of the last 12 points for the Sabres. After over a month of finding different ways to lose, they have begun finding different ways to win.

Despite playing 40 minutes of disinterested hockey the Sabres managed to tie the game late and earn a shootout win. Buffalo played with edge and passion in the final period and scrapped enough to get the game to overtime. Nathan Gerbe tallied one of the sickest shootout goals I’ve ever seen to win it and Ryan Miller was only beaten once in the skills competition.

The third period effort was nice to see as the Sabres failed to establish any sort of tone against a team that had played on the road the night before. Considering the Stars had to travel after a game on Thursday, I expected to see a similar Sabres team to the one that played on Wednesday. While the first 40 didn’t provide any such result, Buffalo managed to establish an impressive strategy in the third.

Lindy Ruff confirmed in his press conference that Cody McCormick will miss time due to an injury. His absence didn’t seem to hurt the Sabres as James Patrick pretty much rolled three lines for the second and third periods.

Despite giving up a power play goal on a nifty tip by Michael Ryder, the Buffalo special teams units were sound. Thomas Vanek tallied on the power play and the penalty kill came up big when they needed it. Ryan Miller had another solid outing, stopping 24 of 26 shots and remaining capable to the task when Kari Lehtonen turned in numerous big saves.

In my opinion, starting Jhonas Enroth tonight is the right move. Buffalo has five games in the next eight days with Monday, Wednesday and Saturday to rest. Giving Enroth a start tonight would be the conventional wisdom. Hopefully the coaching staff agrees.

  • Thomas Vanek had a good return from injury. His power play goal was a vintage Vanek deflection. He had Lehtonen beat on three occasions tonight but only managed to get the deflection past the Finn. That is the type of game the Sabres will need from Vanek, providing another regular scoring outlet will be needed if Buffalo is to make a run.
  • I’m glad Ryan Miller has righted the ship. This is some of the best hockey I have ever seen him play, that includes the 2010 Olympics. He didn’t have much of a chance on either goal as Ryder’s was a perfect tip and the Vincour goal either hits him or hits the net. He didn’t get a shutout yesterday and I’d give him the rest he deserves tonight.
  • Good on Ruff to leave Leino with Pominville and Roy. Another tip of the cap for putting Vanek on the wing with Stafford and Ennis. I would assume Vanek finds his way back to a line with Pominville, I just don’t know when exactly that will happen.
  • Another solid night from the defensemen. There were some ugly plays here and there, but that is to be expected. I have to think it will be a long time until MAG finds his way to the lineup.
  • The third jerseys may not be everyone’s favorite, but by my count they remain undefeated this season in the royal unis.
  • Cody McCormick is really having a rough go this season. That concussion really derailed things for him and it doesn’t seem as if he has found his way out of the woods. I won’t speculate what his injury is, I actually thought he was simply benched for that bonehead penalty he took in the first period. When his game is on he is an effective piece of this roster, this year he has been little more than a grocery stick.
  • Drew Stafford is truly snake bit. Tyler Ennis had a nice bit of stickhandling on Wednesday to set up Stafford. Tonight the North Dakota product had two glorious chances but was thwarted by Lehtonen.

Game Summary/Event Summary

The Morning Skate: Suddenly potent Sabres host Stars

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The Buffalo Sabres offense was there in October but has been nothing but a face on a milk carton in the months since. Finally, as the team has begun to find some footing, the offense seems to be coming back to life.

Two late, unanswered goals in New York led the Sabres to a shootout victory and they followed that performance with a six-goal barrage against Boston on Wednesday. If this is the type of offensive attack the team will be coming with for the foreseeable future the likelihood of piecing a run together is much better.

Dallas comes to Buffalo after a 4-2 win in Columbus last night. Kari Lehtonen played against the Blue Jackets yesterday and has played the lion’s share of play for the Stars as of late. A non-conference game on the back half of a road back-to-back series would be a good opportunity to play Richard Bachman. However, Dallas is in a position where they need every point available and I’d expect Lehtonen to be back in net tonight.

The Sabres will get Thomas Vanek back in the lineup tonight but where he will play remains a mystery. I’d be apprehensive to take Ville Leino away from Derek Roy and Jason Pominville. Reuniting Leino and Ennis wouldn’t be all bad, but the production of Leino, Roy and Pominville cannot be broken up.

Highlighted Matchup

Thomas Vanek. Prior to missing time with injury, Vanek was experiencing his first slump of the season. I wonder if his injury had lingered prior to the hit that forced him out of the lineup. If Vanek could find the scoring touch that had been so consistent earlier in the season, the Sabres would have two lines capable of scoring on a regular basis.

Projected Goaltenders

BUF: Ryan Miller

DAL: Kari Lehtonen

Last Meeting

Sabres 0 – Stars 4, American Airlines Arena, 10/30/2011