Buffalo Sabres

Building a winner takes more than just top picks

Chris Ostrander5 Comments

As the final two weeks tick away until the Sabres make the first pick in the Tim Murray era, Tyler and I decided to team up to offer an all-encompassing analysis of how the most recent Cup winning teams were constructed. We started with the 2008-09 Pittsburgh Penguins and went straight through this year’s Kings and Rangers rosters.

We found a number of different trends and traits on each of these teams. One trait they all shared was the possession of at least one high pick (fifth or higher) who was either drafted by the team or became a priority acquisition at one point or another. However, just as important as these players were to their respective teams, proper acquisitions via trades or free agency served as an equally important trait for each and every one of these teams.

Anze Kopitar: picked 11th overall in 2005.

Our goal was to offer a comprehensive analysis of each of these teams to illustrate exactly where the Sabres still need to improve their roster outside of simply winning the Draft Lottery.

 

Chris: The current state of the Sabres has inspired a lot of debate regarding rebuilding and the best course of action to take. One particularly incendiary stance taken by Jeremy White is that it doesn’t matter who your GM is so long as you’re picking at the top of the draft. While I’m sure his point was that anyone can pick first since you’re likely to land a surefire stud with a top-three selection, the comment has turned into a rallying cry both for White and his critics.

I know we both disagree with his premise given that hockey teams are comprised of 23 players, not one or two. Without giving away the entire argument in two paragraphs, I feel it’s important for anyone to understand that shaping a championship team takes a hell of a lot more than simply picking first a few times. It’s a perfect storm of drafting, trades, free agent signings and cap management. Comparing the state of the Sabres to other teams who have enjoyed a turnaround after picking high – Colorado comes to mind as a great example – it’s safe to say that Aaron Ekblad or one of the Sams aren’t going to turn things around by themselves, no?

Tyler: Whoever Tim Murray opts to take at 2nd overall at the end of the month will not come in, put the team on his back, and carry them to a top three finish (and automatic playoff spot) in the Atlantic Division. I’d venture to say that even if Murray were to acquire another top five pick in June (as Mike Harrington believes they should) they still would find themselves outside of the playoff picture. That is not an indictment of the skill of any of the top prospects, but of the current roster. The Sabres have a multitude of holes to fill, and while one or two of Bennett, Reinhart, or Ekblad would no doubt but the team on the right track there’s still a long way to go. Continue reading →

It’s time for the Sabres to run an equipment sale

Chris Ostrander1 Comment

If you mosey on down to the Sabres Store at any point during the regular season you’re bound to find a decent selection of game used sticks. Sometimes you can even find brand new sticks that haven’t been cut down, let alone taped up. The sticks cost about $100 the last time I checked, which happens to be a sweet price for a piece of pro stock equipment. Factor in that these sticks retail for over $250 in most cases and the deal really can’t be beat.

Unfortunately this is about as far as the Sabres are willing to go when it comes to selling their overstocked equipment. In the early weeks of the summer the selection is a bit deeper – with socks, gloves and pants available for purchase – but usually that stock runs dry quite quickly.

That brings me to my main point. Why is it that the Sabres don’t run an equipment sale each year? Continue reading →

Pick your Sabres starting lineup

Chris Ostrander3 Comments

I saw a similar graphic with a list of some of hockey’s greatest names earlier today. The instructions were the same; you had $20 to pick the starting six players you would want based on the dollar amounts next to each name. So I thought it would be fun to do this with the Sabres. Go ahead and leave your picks in the comments or on Twitter after you pick your group. top6

Isles take another step towards keeping 2014 pick with Halak trade

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The move that sent Jaroslav Halak to the Capitals was one that ensured Tim Murray ensured that he had a goaltender who would be with the organization past this summer’s free agency period. Little did many know that Halak would wind up becoming a contributing factor in which first round pick the Sabres receive from the Islanders.

Halak was swapped by the Capitals for a fourth round pick yesterday in a move that gives the Islanders two full months to negotiate with Halak ahead of free agency. This is a move geared towards improving the Islanders now. Their lack of goaltending last year kept the Islanders from competing for a playoff position and ultimately pushed them towards the top of the draft. While this isn’t a final piece of a Cup run puzzle it’s certainly a move that indicates that Snow won’t be taking the scenic route towards reshaping the roster.

That route likely includes using their 2014 first round pick.

There’s still the possibility that Halak chooses to test the market despite the Islanders efforts to get in him ahead of time – remember, the Islanders failed to get Christian Ehrhoff under contract after trading a fourth round pick for his rights in 2014. Should that be the case Snow would be stuck pursuing a contingency plan in net. Either way, it’s obvious that he wants to make immediate improvements to his roster which tells me they aren’t necessarily in the tanking business for 2014-15. Continue reading →

Spitballing the Sabres: Creating a Sabres Fantasy Camp

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In the past you’ve read posts on this site titled as pipe dreams. They were a string of ideas I had envisioned for various parts of the city that featured a wide range of ideas which varied in terms of feasibility.

I hope that this post serves as a starting point for a number of different ideas that I’m pitching for the Sabres. In fact, I’ve ran some similar posts in recent weeks and months. So it’s not as if this is a foreign concept to this space.

So I kept brushing him back.

Perhaps one of these ideas will strike a chord with a member of the Sabres front office (unlikely) or even just drum up conversation amongst the fan base that could gain momentum down the road. I enjoy coming up with various ideas and floating them for conversation. Especially when it’s something that could benefit the city or, in this case the Sabres.

The Sabres currently hold an annual event called the Corporate Challenge that is a three-on-three tournament that features alumni headlining teams sponsored by local businesses. The cost per team is $3500 and the players receive a jersey along with a number of other amenities that accompany the tournament. This includes food and drink throughout the day and at the culmination of the event. It’s a terrific even and I’d like to see the Sabres build on the success and momentum of the Corporate Challenge by instituting a fantasy camp. Continue reading →

Sabres have an arsenal of first and second round assets

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If you read Paul Hamilton’s post on WGR 550 today you may have noticed the bevvy of players he referenced. A great many of those were selected in the first two rounds of the draft (as he mentions). After reading his post I wanted to find a way to illustrate exactly what the Sabres hold from the actions they’ve taken over the last few years.

The Sabres hold nine picks in the first and second round of the next two drafts. After the trade deadline the Sabres had sixplayers selected in the first two rounds of last year’s draft. Should the Sabres hold onto all of their picks and not make any trades involving players selected since 2008, the Sabres will close the 2015 draft with 25 players in the system who were selected in the first two rounds of the draft between 2008 and 2015.

That’s a long look at the organization as anyone selected since 2008 are beyond prospect status at this point and there’s no way to tell what Tim Murray’s strategy will be with the pick he possesses between this year and next. It’s a safe bet to say that he won’t sacrifice any of the three firsts he holds next year with his only course of action regarding the 2015 first round being to obtain more selections.

A pair of picks that I’m very interested in are the two at the top of this year’s second round. Buffalo holds the first pick of the second round (31) and Winnipeg’s selection (39)thanks to the deadline day trade of Matt Moulson. They’re high second round picks in what is considered a weak draft, so they may not carry all that much weight. I also think that targeting Thatcher Demko with the 31st pick could be a direction the Sabres go. I’d also be interested to see if either, or both, of those picks could be used to sweeten the pot on a draft day hockey trade if Murray is able to find a dance partner.

What I think is important to keep in mind about this – Hamilton touches on this when he refers to how envious other organizations are of the Sabres – is that the doom and gloom surrounding the state of the organization is somewhat misplaced. The Sabres have a ton of assets and while those selected prior to 2010 may by closer to veteran than prospect status, the organization’s roots run deep. This is not a team that has been spread thin by buying rentals and temporarily patching weak spots. While the holes in the current roster run rampant, the framework to fix them are in hand and will start to be acquired as soon as June 28.

As I said, I wanted to illustrate the arsenal of high picks and assets Hamilton mentioned in his post. The fun starts at the draft in Philly and will continue through to next season. If used properly, the assets listed below could significantly speed up the rebuild. 1st two round

2014 2ITB Sabres Awards

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The Two in the Box awards are back yet again for another year and I’m joined in the voting by the newest contributor to the site, Tyler Roeder. Tyler will be chipping in with posts here and there to hopefully increase the content on the site above the current level, which is not very much at all. Each of the players or topics we picked are represented for each category. We didn’t agree on every one but each viewpoint is included below the winners.

Most Valuable Player – Tyler Ennis

Chris: In a lost season with few redeeming qualities, Tyler Ennis recaptured some of the magic he and Drew Stafford shared at the end of the 2011-12 season on his way to leading the Sabres in goal scoring. After a year in which his value began to be questioned, Ennis came back with an impressive run that could cement his value moving forward.

Tyler: Ennis was able to win me over with his play late in the year, after nearly losing me with some Maxim Afinogenov-esque play in the middle portion of the year. Ennis was able to put up a respectable 11 points in 20 games after the team was gutted at the trade deadline.

Least Valuable Player – Ville Leino

CO: Allow me to take the easy way out with this choice. Leino was a ghost for nearly the entire season and punctuated the punchline he had become by going scoreless on the season. He put only 38 pucks on net this year, fewer than such offensive dynamos like Mike Weber, Henrik Tallinder and Matt Ellis. His time in Buffalo has been nothing short of a disaster and his inevitable buyout will rid the team of a failed attempt at buying their way to a contending roster.

TR: What else can be said at this point? When you make $4.5 million and get outscored by John Scott, you get the LVP. It’s safe to say that this year was final year (Thank God) of the Leino era in Buffalo, which is best for both parties.

Top Prospect – Rasmus Ristolainen

CO: Ristolainen almost doesn’t qualify for this award considering he appeared in 34 games this season. He did, however, justify his draft position and set himself up to be a cornerstone on the Sabres’ roster for the next number of years.

TR: The Sabres have steadily stocked the prospect pool over the last few years, and have done so with a focus on the blue line. The 6’ 4” Finn got a taste of the NHL this year, but was better served being in Rochester. While with the Amerks he put up nearly .67 pts/gm; and with the 19 year old only growing stronger and more experienced, the sky is the limit. It’s a strong bet he’ll start next season with the big club. Continue reading →

Sabres still in a position of power despite losing lottery

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Given that the Sabres had a 75% chance of not winning the draft lottery last night, there shouldn’t be much surprise or disappointment in Buffalo receiving the second overall pick. My disappointment lies in the two posts I wrote on Monday that needed to be drastically altered because of the result.

The consensus on this year’s draft is that the top four or five prospects are at a level above most others in the draft. This also happens to be a draft that will differ from the last two or three that preceded it in that there is no clear cut favorite to be picked first overall. Rather, the top four or five players are the consensus favorites to be selected at the top with the rest of the first round being described with any number of synonyms for average.

While the Sabres missed out on having their pick of the litter, they’re truly not at a disadvantage having to pick second. In fact, you could argue that they’re in a better situation but I’m not about to try and justify why not picking first could possibly not be the best possible scenario. I will say that the Sabres are not hamstrung for not having won the lottery. Perhaps the best possible scenario would have seen the Islanders win the lottery, but having the Panthers leapfrog the Sabres won’t have a resounding affect on the direction the Sabres go with their selection.

It would appear as if Barrie defenseman Aaron Ekblad, Kingston forward Sam Bennett and Kootenay center Sam Reinhart have established themselves as the top three prospects in the draft. Although Leon Draisaitl is considered to be right there with Reinhart and possibly even Bennett at the top.

Tim Murray repeatedly said that he is going to take the best player available regardless of position. Reading those tea leaves could point you in a number of different directions. While the Panthers aren’t guaranteed to take a particular player, the Sabres decision won’t be altered at two. In fact, the Sabres could very well end up with the exact player they wanted at one even after the Panthers pick, something that Murray confirmed last night. Continue reading →

Thoughts on changing the NHL Draft Lottery

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As the talent at the top of the NHL Draft continues to rise each year the topic of tanking to ensure higher odds at the first overall pick is becoming a hot topic. While the current system is designed to give the 30th place finisher the best opportunity to pick first, there is a better chance that team picks second given the odds.

With next year’s draft featuring a pair of generational talents at the top of the prospect pool, rumors and chatter have abounded regarding change to the lottery system in hopes of curbing the practice of tanking.

There doesn’t seem to be a good system that is strictly based off the order of finish in the standings. The system floated by Elliotte Friedman a few weeks back included a few nuances that wouldn’t only decrease the 30th place finisher’s chances but take into account a number of seasons as opposed to the one that had just passed.

However, it’s a fairly nuanced system that points towards even more complicated and convoluted systems for determining the first overall pick while preventing teams from taking nosedives to the bottom of the standings.

One idea I’m particularly fond of is a version of something similar I heard on NHL Network Radio a while back. If I’m not mistaken the original thought came from Mike Brophy, so direct the appropriate praise to him for the genesis of this idea.

The plan would be to still reward the worst teams with the highest picks in each year’s draft. You can’t have parity and turnover within the league unless you follow such a pattern. It also ensures that bad teams will improve – or should improve if you’re the Oilers – by picking high. In a league driven by revenues, perennial basement dwellers will eventually see lots of red ink if they can’t bring in players to overhaul their roster.

My plan would include the league’s five worst teams – although this could be expanded if necessary – in a competition to determine who wins the first overall pick. I stress the term win because this would be a standings-based competition that would be evaluated on each team’s performance after a certain point in the year. This way you can’t simply hit the brakes on your year, sell off your assets and wait to see what the lottery balls do for you once the season wraps. Meanwhile, if you finish 30th you’re still assured to draft high enough to get some help. Continue reading →

Poll: Who will win the draft lotto? The Sabres or the field?

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The 2014 NHL Draft Lottery is tonight and after 82 games of suffering the Sabres hold the most lottery balls.

Buffalo will have a 25% chance at retaining the first overall pick with the rest of the non-playoff teams making up the other 75% of the chances. If you’re playing along at home that means that the Sabres have a better chance at picking second than they do of picking first.

The precise draft odds are on the internet now that the NHL released all of the pertinent information for tonight’s drawing, and this is how the breakdown looks for the 14 teams who missed the playoffs:

Buffalo Sabres – 25.0%

Florida Panthers – 18.8%

Edmonton Oilers – 14.2%

Calgary Flames – 10.7%

New York Islanders – 8.1%

Vancouver Canucks – 6.2%

Carolina Hurricanes – 4.7%

Toronto Maple Leafs – 3.6%

Winnipeg Jets – 2.7%

Anaheim Ducks (from Ottawa) – 2.1%

New Jersey Devils – 1.5%

Nashville Predators – 1.1%

Phoenix Coyotes – 0.8%

Washington Capitals – 0.5%

Once again, the Sabres hold the most lottery balls due to their 30th place finish, but they still face long odds on actually keeping that pick. For example, the Panthers, Oilers and Flames have a combined 43.7% chance of winning the lottery, so the Sabres aren’t a shoo-in for the first pick just yet.

Of course, if the Sabres lose the lottery they only drop one spot in the draft order. So the Sabres are guaranteed to pick no worse than second overall this year. It’s not a bad consolation prize, particularly in a draft where there isn’t necessarily a clear cut number one prospect.

Regardless of how things transpire tonight the Sabres are all but assured to end up with either Ekblad, Bennett or Reinhart.

I think I’m going to go with The Field in this case, but who are you taking? The Sabres or The Field.