Yet another dud on home ice set has put the Sabres backs against the wall. They trail the Canadiens 3-2 and will head into a pressure cooker in the Bell Centre in need of a win to extend their season on Saturday.
Thursday’s game started well enough. Buffalo got a pinball goal off the skate of Jason Zucker and the leg of Mike Matheson to open the scoring. It was yet another quick start for the Sabres, who have made a habit of that throughout the playoffs. Not unlike game three, this one didn’t stick. The flow of the first period was a little wacky. Both teams scored on goals that banked in off an unsuspecting Canadien and the flurry of scoring after the six minute mark felt like something you’d see in a random game in November as opposed to the playoffs.
This doesn’t matter much in the big picture considering how this game played out, but I can’t help but wonder how Thursday night goes if Conor Timmins and Josh Norris don’t boot that puck for the first Canadiens goal. Assuming the rest of the first period stays the same (and without going too far down a rabbit hole) do the Sabres carry a different level of confidence into intermission if they’re leading 3-1 instead of 3-2?
That’s a minor tangent to consider, the bigger storyline is how the game turned in the second period. Or perhaps, how Jakub Dobeš settled in after Konsta Helenius’ goal. The Canadiens’ goalie was steady after allowing a pair of iffy goals. He made a pair of dazzling saves in the aftermath of the Sabres push, including a solid kick save on Helenius. Meanwhile, after an early Sabres push in the second period, the Habs found their sea legs and went to work burying the Sabres. Josh Anderson’s tap-in opened the flood gates and a pair of soft goals ended Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen’s night and served as the proverbial dagger.
Buffalo’s third period push was lukewarm and any chances they managed to generate were stifled by Dobeš. The Sabres will need more road magic on Saturday to keep this season rolling. It seems safe to assume Alex Lyon will get the nod in the Bell Centre and we’ll wait to see what other lineup changes will be made for a crucial game six.
Second Period Track Meet
Buffalo had a quality start to the second period but couldn’t find a way to put another puck behind Dobeš. Perhaps their best sequence of the series saw the Benson-Norris-Doan line hammer the Canadiens on the cycle and create a quality look for Norris from the left circle. The Sabres capitalized on Montreal’s desperate clear and change to spring Tage Thompson on a breakaway that he was unable to finish. That all came before the four-minute mark of the period. From there, Montreal found some life and the Sabres control at even strength slipped away.
The period became a track meet as the period progressed and that style of game, especially Thursday night, heavily favored the Canadiens. In a vacuum, the Sabres could trade punches with the Habs, but the Thompson line has been lifeless in this series and any time they were on the ice, it was trouble for Buffalo. Look no further than the Jake Evans goal who cleaned up a puck that leaked through Luukkonen from a shot off a rush by Ivan Demidov. Thompson didn’t finish his backcheck and Peyton Krebs was late chasing to the crease, allowing Evans to put the Canadiens ahead 4-3. That’s just one example from a period that got away from the Sabres. The rush advantage snowballed into extended zone time for the Canadiens and eventually a lopsided score line.
What Buttons Does Ruff Push Next?
A huge storyline in this series has been the no-show from Buffalo’s best players. The Thompson line has been nothing short of a liability when they’re on the ice and Rasmus Dahlin has spent more time taking careless, undisciplined penalties than making a positive impact on the game. It’s a testament to Buffalo’s depth that the Sabres are even in this series when you consider how little they’ve gotten from their big guns.
I will be amazed if the Krebs-Thompson-Tuch line remains intact for Saturday and I expect the Zucker-Helenius-Quinn line to provide most of the material for change. Perhaps Ryan McLeod gets an opportunity to climb out of the doghouse, but I expect Ruff to resist breaking up the Norris line given how great they’ve been. Something will need to change for the Sabres. There’s no alternative. We saw Helenius up with Thompson in the third period. Perhaps they consider Helenius at center and bump Thompson to the wing. Tuch and McLeod had some good moments together during the year, that could be another pairing worth revisiting. I think the only way to truly affect change through the lineup will be to spread out the dogs, which means breaking up Benson and Doan.
I look at it this way. The balancing act comes down to finding a spark for Buffalo’s big guns at the risk of killing the only effective line they have (slightly different given the impact Helenius has made) or keeping the Norris line intact and working with fewer options to shake up the other two scoring lines. It could be as simple as swapping Thompson and Norris, in order to play Thompson with Benson and Doan. My issue with that is Thompson has been sluggish this series. Even though Norris hasn’t been able to finish, his skating has made him a good fit for the two young energetic wingers. The key is breaking up Thompson and Tuch. They’ve been horrible together (out chanced 10-2 tonight). Whether it’s Benson moving up with Thompson and a new right winger, keeping Krebs with Thompson while adding Doan, or putting all four lines into a blender, the forward lines are a near lock to change for Saturday.
Friday’s skate (if they have one) will be telling. The defense will also be worth watching. Conor Timmins was given the morning off for maintenance, per Ruff. He followed that with a disastrous game. Is he actually healthy enough to play? Do we see Stanley and Schenn on Saturday? If so, how many minutes do they get together? Is Owen Power’s injury serious enough to keep him out? The top line is getting all the attention (as they should given their play), but the defense could see a shuffle as well.
Home Woes
It’s too bad the Sabres have struggled as much as they have at home in these playoffs. It’s been a triumphant return to the postseason and the fans have delivered some great moments in and out of the arena. Even if the season ends prematurely, you would like to have at least one or two more great moments on home ice. Obviously, no one would care if you went winless at home if it meant your team brings home a championship, but would it have killed them to win one more at home?
Both the Sabres and Canadiens have been great on the road in these playoffs (4-1 for the Sabres, 5-2 for the Habs). I can’t begin to guess what isn’t connecting for the Sabres when they play at KeyBank Center. Whatever it is, they’ll need to figure it out if they manage to send the series back to Buffalo.
Series Goaltending Trend
This falls well down the list of issues for the Sabres in this series. But when you look at the big picture, the Sabres haven’t gotten as many saves as the Canadiens. Buffalo has allowed 17 goals across their three losses and their goalies have combined for an .871 save percentage in the series. The circumstances of every single goal takes some of the weight off the shoulders of the goaltenders, but the underlying trend is pointing more and more heavily in favor of Dobeš and the Canadiens.
There are far more things that need to be cleaned up before you even arrive at the goaltenders. The invisible top line was addressed above, questionable zone exits (Conor Timmins, hello) have plagued the Sabres, in-zone defense has ebbed and flowed, all while the special teams battle is tilting towards the Habs. Note that the officials largely kept the whistles in their pockets in game five, but the Canadiens converted on both of their power play opportunities. That being said, Dobeš has managed to stand tall for his team while the Sabres are on the cusp of their second goaltending change of the series. For added context, Lyon has the fifth best GSAx according to Hockeystats.com at 5.57. Dobeš has the second best mark in the league at 8.63. That’s reflective of the entire playoffs, not just this round, but paints the picture of just how valuable Dobeš has been this postseason.
Two in the Box 