The Sabres spent the majority of game two chasing the Canadiens and, therefore, the game. They barely did the former in game three, as they were badly outclassed by Montreal, falling to a 2-1 series deficit.
Game one feels like ancient history after the last two games. Montreal jumped on the Sabres early in game two and stayed in the driver’s seat throughout. The game script was largely the same in game three despite Tage Thompson’s opening goal. The Canadiens’ forward group has given the Sabres fits, Buffalo hasn’t had any answers in the defensive zone once the Habs go to work on the cycle. That’s been exacerbated by sloppy play, particularly on exits and 50/50 pucks in dangerous areas. Buffalo’s lack of detail followed them to Montreal and combined with Montreal’s success on the cycle, made the opening period of game three look especially scrambly for the Sabres.
Game three was further skewed by Montreal’s power play finding its stride. The Habs picked up a pair of power play goals to break the game open, operating at 50% in the period as the Sabres were forced to kill parts of four minors in the second period of game three.
If there’s a silver lining, the Sabres found themselves a bit in the third period of game three, it was a level they lacked for the entirety of game two and for most of game three. Of course, the Sabres were unable to cash their chances while Montreal found the dagger on just their second shot of the period. Buffalo out-chanced the Canadiens 7-3 in the third and carried 55% of possession. That’s something to build on looking ahead to game four. My worry after these two games is whether or not the Sabres are equipped to chase this Montreal team. Jakub Dobes has been predictably excellent, their power play is deadly and the Sabres need to find their identity again.
Chasing Hits, Chasing the Game
It would be wise to remind the Sabres that they don’t keep score of who wins the most scrums. Buffalo spent the last two games chasing hits and trying to show how tough they’ve become. All they have to show for it is a power play and series deficit. Notice that the best the Sabres looked over the last two games – the first 10 minutes of Sunday’s third period – was when they recommitted to what made them such a handful for the Bruins? If they’re going to get back into this series, it will be on the back of their puck possession and chance creation, not post whistle nonsense.
Does Zucker Come Out?
Jason Zucker’s ice time took a nosedive in game three. Getting bumped from the top power play unit and the Sabres spending nearly half of the second period at either four-on-four or shorthanded ate into his ice time even further, but his absence still stood out. He only played 6:47 and his line, with Ryan McLeod and Jack Quinn has been largely invisible in this series and Zucker hasn’t really found himself in either series.
The sharp decline in ice time is going to bring questions about his standing in the lineup for game four. Konsta Helenius will be the popular suggestion among the fanbase and he’s easily the most talented option among Buffalo’s extras. If Zucker comes out, and I think that’s still a fairly big if, there isn’t much use doing so if he’s being replaced with Tyson Kozak or Tanner Pearson. There’s also a level of desperation to that move that I’m unsure if Lindy Ruff would be willing to go to just yet.
High Danger Differences
Despite the shot counter being lopsided in Montreal’s favor in game one, the Sabres held the advantage in high danger chances and overall possession. The Sabres dictated terms in game one but those duties fell to the Canadiens in the following two games. Game two was especially ugly. Montreal generated eight high danger chances in the first period alone (to Buffalo’s zero) and held an 11-8 advantage in the game (21-18 in scoring chances). The Sabres held the scoring chance advantage in game three, but Montreal carried the majority of possession through the first two periods which helped counterbalance where the Sabres we finding success.
I’d also add that the Canadiens have had pucks fall the right way for them in those high danger areas. Alex Newhook’s opener in game three and Kirby Dach’s tally both come to mind. There’s an element of good fortune to both – Newhook’s likely hits the side of the net if it doesn’t catch Conor Timmins’ skate and Dach finds the puck as it sneaks through Lyon’s legs – but the Canadiens aren’t just getting pucks to those areas, they’re finishing when they get there.
Does Ruff Consider A Goalie Change?
Requisite acknowledgement that Alex Lyon deserved better than the last two games. He was terrific in the opening period of game one and is the reason the Sabres reached the second round. But Montreal has put nine behind him over the last two games and I would expect Ruff to give strong consideration to putting Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen back in.
If plugging Helenius into the lineup is a gamble swapping Lyon for Luukkonen would be pushing your chips to the center. Luukkonen was shaky, at best, in his two starts against Boston. Plugging him into the Bell Centre, in a must-win playoff game, would be asking a lot. Still, Ruff has pointed to the success of their regular season goaltending rotation previously in these playoffs and he may be hunting for anything that can wake his roster from their two-game slumber. My hope is that Ruff leans on The Guy Who Got Them Here, but I wouldn’t rule anything out.
Two in the Box 