Two in the Box

The first job is done. The Sabres continued their impressive play on the road, winning a third game at TD Garden and dispatching the Boston Bruins with a 4-1 win in game six of their first round series. 

It was the first series win for the Sabres since they beat the Rangers in 2007. If it wasn’t for that pesky playoff drought, the time since their last series win may have been a bigger story. The Sabres now move on to their second round date with the Montreal Canadiens, who survived game seven in Tampa Bay to knock off the Lightning 2-1. 

Both the Buffalo-Boston and Montreal-Tampa Bay series were road-heavy, with a total of three home wins between the two. Whether or not that trend continues remains to be seen. Both buildings have been lauded for their atmosphere through the first round, though I’m sure both teams wish they had done a better job capitalizing on that home-ice advantage.

The Sabres series win was defined by two things: goaltending and dogged puck possession. Buffalo’s forecheck took full advantage of Boston’s sluggish defensive corps and consistently turned takeaways into goals. Friday offered a slightly different flavor as Alex Tuch’s opening tally was manufactured off a quality rush while Mattias Sameuelsson’s game winner was the product of a strong in-zone cycle that eventually worked high to low for a goal through traffic. Zach Benson’s dagger came from an incredible individual effort from Josh Doan. That was definitely a hallmark Doan play as he outworked Charlie McAvoy and David Pastrnak to set up Benson, but we can debate if that was a true forechecking goal as opposed to pure workmanship. That brand of menacing forechecking and pursuit gave Boston fits. There were very few times throughout the series where they had any answer for Buffalo’s forwards as the Sabres’ clear advantage in depth not only affected how they matched up with Boston’s forwards but how they influenced their defensemen into errors. 

Buffalo’s skill and depth resulted in a clear puck possession advantage for the Sabres (53% to 47% across the series). If there is any negatives to take away from the first round (aside from the power play) it would probably be that the Sabres didn’t get the job done sooner. Jeremy Swayman played a role in extending the series, perhaps a larger one than he’s even getting credit for as the Sabres also had the advantage in high danger chances 52-44. Slightly better finishing and a functional power play may have made this an even shorter series than it was and would probably quiet some of the criticism the Sabres have received. There are areas the Sabres need to clean up. Obviously the power play is number one, but there were times when the Bruins managed to push back that the Sabres became sloppy in possession and struggled in transition. Montreal is far more skilled and dynamic, Buffalo won’t be able to survive those errors against their next opponent. 

No Speed Limit

Setting aside the shot counter in Montreal’s game seven, this is a team that resembles the Sabres in many ways. The two youngest rosters in the playoffs thrive on a dynamic transition game and can eat teams up with their unique blend of skill throughout the lineup. Both teams boast effective defense corps that excel at moving the puck and joining the rush. This series has the potential for fireworks if both teams start flying. 

The caveat is how they will adjust their respective games in an attempt to counteract each other. I think game seven against the Lightning was far more likely to have been an aberration, but nine shots in an elimination game is not a recipe for success. There were several moments in the Boston series where the Sabres were stifling defensively and gave Boston no quarter to create chances. Perhaps the two most notable instances were as the Sabres choked out their wins in games three and six. The Bruins’ attack was toothless in each game as the Sabres were disciplined and effective in killing plays. I don’t expect things to be quite as easy this time around, but if the Sabres can replicate that aspect of their game, they could give the Canadiens fits. 

Dooby Dooby Dobes

Jakub Dobes was the x-factor for the Canadiens in round one. He allowed four goals over the final three games and shut the door in game seven in the face of Tampa’s dominating performance. He was also in net for a 4-2 win in Buffalo on January 31, where he turned in a 36 save game. Dobes is 3-0 against the Sabres in his young career with a .936 SV%. He’s perhaps the most daunting figure in this series for the Sabres to overcome. Swayman was stout for the Bruins, posting a .906 across the series. Buffalo will follow Swayman with Dobes and his .923. Unless his hot streak comes to an abrupt end, he’ll be a huge challenge to overcome. 

The Power Play Issue Persists

Buffalo only managed one power play goal in the Boston series, but the irony of them losing the lone game in which they scored a power play goal isn’t lost on me. Going even on 24 opportunities is more problematic to Buffalo’s issues on the man advantage. 

At this point, it may simply be a matter of the power play enjoying some positive regression in terms of finishing. Better to be lucky than good and all that stuff. If there’s anything they could consider – short of a magic wand to make Noah Ostlund healthy – pushing Rasmus Dahlin to the right wing and using either Bowen Bryam or Owen Power at the top of the zone would be worth exploring. There was a brief period in the Bruins series where they tried it and the Sabres looked more dangerous in that arrangement. I’m not sure it would bear fruit in the long term, but it’s been my assertion that putting someone who can threaten as a passer is what they’re lacking. I’d like to see them try it in this series.

Managing Monteal’s Defense

Perhaps the biggest difference between this series and the Boston series will be how the Canadiens’ defense will be involved. Lane Hutson alone is a massive difference maker and all three pairs have capable puck movers. They’ll be far more dangerous in transition and far more effective countering Buffalo’s forecheck. The Canadiens boast a deeper forward group than Boston, but their defense may be the most significant unit the Sabres have to adapt to in this series.