Two in the Box

It took until the final night of the season, but the entire NHL playoff bracket is set. The NHL’s backwards format is showing cracks again this year as the second and third best teams (by points) in the West and the seventh and eighth best teams in the East will face off in their respective first round series. 

The NHL also narrowly avoided having a higher seeded team enter their first round series with fewer points than the team they were hosting. A Vegas loss on Wednesday and a Utah win on Thursday would have meant the Mammoth finished with 94 points while the Oilers and Vegas would have finished with 93 points (with Edmonton winning the division thanks to their regulation wins). Seems like a great format! 

Setting aside issues with how the NHL opts to seed playoff teams, the first round of the NHL playoffs is always appointment viewing and this year features several matchups that will make the best weeks of the NHL season that much juicer. Thus, there is no better way to celebrate the opening of the postseason than to rate the raft of first round series from worst to best. Each series is rated on a scale of one to five pucks. 

Carolina Hurricanes vs. Ottawa Senators – One Puck

This series pits two of the league’s most stifling defensive teams against one another. The Hurricanes and Senators allowed the fewest shots against at five-on-five this season (Natural Stat Trick). The NHL’s team data reflects similar results, as the two clubs allowed 23.9 and 24.4 shots against per game, respectively. If it wasn’t for each team’s suspect goaltending — no goaltender that dressed for either club finished the year with a save percentage above .900 — there would be a non-zero chance game one of this series would be a neverending 0-0 tie. 

Since the foundation that this series is going to be built on is a slogging, suffocating style of hockey, I fear it will be the least exciting series of either conference. 

Colorado Avalanche vs. Los Angeles Kings – Two Pucks

A lot of people are already crowning the Avs while LA’s playoff credentials are among the most dubious in this year’s bracket. The Kings finished the year with only 22 regulation wins, the third lowest mark in the entire league. Their regulation wins just barely offset their 20 losses in overtime and shootouts. Juxtapose that against the President’s Trophy winning Avalanche who won 55 games, carry a +55 goal differential (the Kings are a -22) and who allowed over 40 goals fewer than LA did this season. If the Kings find a way to stay with the Avs, this could turn into a series that’s worth following, but at least as we look ahead to the opening of the first round, this falls low on the interest list. 

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Philadelphia Flyers – Two and A Half Pucks

Upstarts vs. the Big Three. Neither of these teams were seen as strong playoff contenders to start the year and both managed to far exceed expectations. The Flyers looked dead in the water just a few weeks back, but they surged into a division spot. Porter Martone adds a new layer of interest to this series as a supplement to the likes of Owen Tippett, Matvei Michkov and Trevor Zegras. Betting against Sidney Crosby is a foolish endeavor and I love if Stuart Skinner could earn some playoff redemption if the Pens turn his way. There’s a lot of potential in this series, though I’m not sure if it’s dripping with intrigue either. These teams don’t seem to have the same sort of hate from when Crosby and Claude Giroux were butting heads, but there’s still room for fireworks.

Dallas vs. Minnesota – Three Pucks

These two have been on a collision course for about two months, so you can forgive them a bit for being a bit sleepy down the stretch, particularly the Wild. I think the Wild are vulnerable and would be ripe for a quick dispatch if the Stars weren’t dealing with so many notable injuries. It’s impressive that the Stars can be missing Roope Hintz and Miro Heiskanen and still look as formidable as they do, especially at forward. Part of the reason the Wild haven’t looked quite as sharp down the stretch has been the play of Filip Gustavsson and the team announced Jesper Wallstedt will be the game one starter as a result. What will make this series a winner is if Wyatt Johnston and Jason Robertson combine with Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy to put on a show. What I’m waiting to see is if these two teams go punch for punch, because that would drastically change my outlook on the matchup. 

Edmonton Anaheim – Three Pucks

Can the Oilers get any saves? The Jarry trade has been a disaster but Connor Ingram has been steady. His GSAx is stronger than Lukas Dostal, who has a much stronger reputation than Ingram. Dostal only has three wins over the last month, posting a .900 or better four times in that span. Connor McDavid makes any series worth watching and Anaheim’s young core adds to that. This might be the darkhorse for best series in the first round when it all plays out. 

Buffalo Sabres vs. Boston Bruins – Three Pucks

Half puck bonus for the hometown team. The Bruins have the better goalie. They have the best forward. They went 3-1 against the Sabres this year. Yet, the Sabres outperformed them in some team-wide possession metrics. A big talking point early on has been if the Bruins will be too physical for the Sabres and whether or not Buffalo can translate their game to the playoffs. I don’t anticipate this being a fire wagon series, but I do think there’s a decent opportunity for some high drama in this series as the chess match unfolds between Lindy Ruff and Marco Sturm. I like the Sabres depth a bit better than Boston’s. Can the depth outpace the areas where the Bruins are strongest?

Vegas Golden Knights vs. Utah Mammoth – Three and A Half Pucks

Vegas rallied to win their division after firing their coach with just eight games left in the season.The Golden Knights have questionable goaltending and they’ve had to deal with other hiccups as the season progressed. They’re red hot entering the playoffs against a team who will have the advantage in net, but not necessarily in depth. Vegas, while certainly older, has a much deeper wealth of talent which ought to put them ahead in this series. Yet, this ought to be an entertaining series. Utah’s depth may not be quite as good as Vegas’ but they still have several electric players on their roster. Factor in the sub-par goaltending the Knights have gotten this season and there could be room for fireworks in this series. 

Tampa Bay vs. Montreal – Four and A Half Pucks

Easily the series with the best potential for fireworks. The battle between the top lines for each team will be highly entertaining to watch and I’m amped to see how each club tries to counter their opponents. The big questions for me: Will Tampa try and rough up Montreal early? And will it work? Can Jakub Dobes do enough in goal to take the series? Whose depth forwards are the difference makers? What excites me most about this series is the potential for fireworks in any given game. I’m not sure any of the other series can match that as the playoffs open up.