The Sabres needed a lot of things to go right in order to make the playoffs this season. Reliable goaltending. A competent power play. Stouter defense thanks to offseason additions. And, a healthy lineup.
Buffalo’s health issues started in training camp, keeping the likes of Zach Benson and Michael Kesselring out of the lineup to open the season. It took about 50 minutes of game one for Josh Norris to wind up on the shelf with a long-term and Justin Danforth went down shortly after. Now, the team is managing the absence of four key forwards and a leave of absence of their captain and best player.
The most recent run left the Sabres shorthanded heading into a challenging road trip. It’s also headlined by a pair of absences that defy even the most pessimistic view of the team’s injury luck. Rasmus Dahlin’s leave to be with his fiance, Carolina Matovac, as she heals from a heart transplant is understandable. In hindsight, it’s amazing he came to camp and began the season with the team considering the trauma he and Carolina went through on their summer holiday. My hope is that Dahlin’s deserved time with his fiance gives him some peace of mind and helps release him from what I can only imagine is a mountain of nerve-wracking anxiety as she recovers thousands of miles away. Meanwhile, Jiri Kulich struggled through an up-and-down start to the season before initially being ruled out with an illness connected to fluid in his ears. Further testing revealed he is dealing with a blood clot, which will keep him out for an extended period. Even Jason Zucker’s illness has wandered into the absurd after Lindy Ruff noted that the winger hasn’t been able to eat solid food for nine days. None of those issues fall into the bucket of muscle strains that might otherwise be expected during the course of a season.
Dahlin’s leave and Kulich’s ailment are two more significant ailments on a roster littered with them. The Sabres managed to stay in the race in a tight Eastern Conference despite a string of overtime losses, but without Benson, Dahlin, Kulich and now Zucker, they’re now woefully shorthanded at forward and walking a tightrope on defense. There’s no easy or obvious solution to offer any sort of short term relief, meaning the season could slide off the rails quite quickly.
Buffalo’s depth on defense is good enough that they could manage Dahlin’s absence on its own – assuming it wouldn’t be several months in length. However, Mattias Samuelsson has been given a few maintenance days already and I question whether or not Kesselring is close to 100%. What makes the situation untenable is removing the team’s most important and talented player in addition to four forwards from the top nine.
Without Benson, Kulich, Norris and Zucker, the Sabres have been forced to push Peyton Krebs and Jordan Greenway into roles they’re poorly suited for. They’re hoping Noah Ostlund and Isak Rosen can be serviceable top six assets all while getting dreadful play from Tage Thompson. Thompson may be the forward most impacted by Buffalo’s injuries as he’s now lost two centers and the winger who consistently had a positive impact on Thompson’s offense.
The trickle-down effect on the forward group is evident in any reading of the lines. Ryan McLeod is the de facto first center, Krebs played over 15 minutes at even strength against Carolina as a result of effectively icing two fourth lines. They managed to steal a point against Utah last week but even with some admirable play against the Hurricanes, the game ran away from them in the end, which is what I fear will be the case for most of this road trip, if not the foreseeable future.
With two centers out for such a long period, moving Thompson back to the pivot would be a logical short-term fix for the Sabres. Playing Thompson at center would allow Lindy Ruff to slide McLeod back to a more fitting role while asking less of Kozak, Krebs and Ostlund. The drawback is that would expose Buffalo’s depleted depth on the wing. Greenway is already seeing far too much ice. Taking Thompson off the depth chart at wing wouldn’t do much to decrease the role Greenway is currently filling. That’s the sort of vicious cycle they find themselves in with so many missing pieces.
The season hasn’t reached a tipping point just yet, but it’s closing in. The Sabres were four points back of a wild card spot before play began on Tuesday and if they go without any points on this trip, they’ll be barrelling headlong into another write-off. One immediate option the Sabres have at their disposal is Konsta Helenius. He, Viktor Neuchev and Anton Wahlberg are the only remaining prospects of note in Rochester. Jake Leschyshyn would be another option if the Sabres prefer someone with NHL experience, but he’d be another bottom six body on roster littered with them. At least there would be some promise of offensive pop with Helenius who has 10 points in 13 games for the Amerks this year.
Helenius is an attractive option in a scenario where Thompson moves to center and the McLeod, Tuch and Doan line is reunited. It’s hardly an ideal lineup, but the Sabres left ideal about three weeks ago:
Rosen-Thompson-Helenius
Doan-McLeod-Tuch
Kozak-Ostlund-Quinn
Greenway-Kozak-Krebs/Malenstyn
The alternative, of course, is a trade. There are a lot of wrinkles to any trade discussion surrounding this team in this particular situation. Perhaps the most important question to answer is: If they end this week upwards of eight points out of the playoffs, can they actually salvage the season? If that’s the case, the focus needs to shift to the future. Who is truly a key piece? Who is expendable? Who will be making the roster decisions?
Let’s operate on the assumption that there is a light at the end of the tunnel. Josh Norris took a rehab skate on Tuesday, so perhaps he is inching closer to a return. Apparently Benson had a chance of playing on this trip. So there could be a bit of help on the way. This fanbase has been desperate to see Kevyn Adams operate with any sort of urgency as prior years circled the drain. Could this be the year he finally shows a pulse before the calendar turns? The usual caveat of no trade and no movement clauses applies here, as does the understanding that the only trade calls the Sabres will be getting from competitors will be on Alex Tuch’s availability.
However, could there be room for a deal with one of the other struggling teams in the league? Apparently St. Louis is open for business and they need to address their blueline. Why not circle back to the Bowen Byram discussions from the summer? Calgary is dreadful but Morgan Frost would do wonders for Buffalo’s shoddy center depth. The ongoing Yegor Sharangovich rumors don’t move the needle all that much, but if the Sabres lose any more forwards, it would be awfully hard to turn down that help.
The truth is, viable trade options are in fairly short supply, especially for a team at the wrong end of the standings. What seems to be evident is this astonishing string of injuries and illnesses came too quickly and at a particularly difficult point of Buffalo’s schedule to survive. Frankly, few teams in the league could adequately weather the loss of four top-six forwards and their top defenseman. But it’s a lot harder to stomach when facing a 15th season without the playoffs.
Moreover, do you want Kevyn Adams navigating any trades, let alone deals that would be made to keep this season alive? If this season does indeed spiral, Alex Tuch will be out the door in a trade that will be futures based. Others could be out the door with him. Let’s not put that cart in front of an (injured) horse just yet. But the questions abound for this club and they go well past the injury list. Answers, on the other hand, are quite limited, which has been far too common for the Sabres.
Two in the Box 