The mailbag is back for the dog days of summer. This version runs down a host of topics ranging from an arena update to the sustainability of the roster. As this is a longer one, I’ll spare you any sort of protracted introduction and get right to the questions.
@TheAudPile Why hasn’t Tuch signed yet? How much cap space does the team have for the upcoming season?
There’s still a lot of time for Tuch to get signed. I get the impression that signing him right on July 1 wasn’t a priority given all of the other fires Kevyn Adams needed to put out. (Spoiler: many are still burning.) I don’t think there’s any cause for concern with him just yet. If we hit the Olympic break and he’s still unsigned, then you can start to turn up the heat.
One caveat to that is how Tuch views the offseason. This hasn’t been an inspiring summer from a roster perspective and if Tuch wanted to see some tangible change in order to allay any fears of signing long term, I could see a scenario where he is turned off by Buffalo’s general lack of activity. That’s purely guesswork at the moment, but it’s worth keeping in mind.
The salary cap situation is pretty straightforward. According to PuckPedia, the Sabres have about $7.4 million in space with only Conor Timmins and Devon Levi to re-sign. Timmins is the only one of that pair who projects to make the 23-man roster, so his contract is the only one that will affect their cap. If you assume he gets somewhere between $1.25 and $2 million on his contract, and you account for one more forward or defenseman to fill the final roster spot at roughly $900K, you can reasonably subtract roughly $3 million from Buffalo’s cap. That would put them on track to enter the year with somewhere between $4 and $5 million in cap space.
@MrEd315 With some changes with players this offseason, is this Sabres defense better now?
I say yes. Adams added a really effective righty in Michael Kesselring who could really blossom next to Owen Power and upgraded on Connor Clifton with the Timmins acquisition. If they keep Bowen Byram next to Dahlin, this is how the pairs project:
Byram-Dahlin
Power-Kesselring
Samuelsson-Timmins
I think that’s a pretty solid group. Samuelsson’s contract isn’t great value for the third pair, but he shouldn’t hurt them too much down there. Kesselring is the x-factor. If he has another step to take and is able to remain effective with more minutes, the Sabres would have a recipe for a really strong top four. That doesn’t mean they’ll enjoy a huge uptick in team defense. There’s more that goes into improving that facet of the team game than just personnel, so we’ll need to wait and see if the addition of Kesselring and Timmins truly pays dividends, or if they only provide incremental improvement.
@TheBackCheck26 Has a struggling 23 year old defenseman ever turned it around?
I’m assuming this is referencing Bowen Byram and his substandard underlying numbers. For clarification, Byram has just recently turned 24. The issue with Byram was well illustrated in this tweet from Corey Sznajder.
Byram’s early underlyings suggested that he might grow into a reliable, top four defenseman who was a menace in transition. A lot of those impacts have evaporated in the years since and while some of his traits (skating) are still plus attributes, his overall game never rounded out. He’s been most effective here with Dahlin – a position that most players have thrived in – but has often been underwater with anyone else. I assume the argument here is that at 23 (or 24) there is still plenty of runway for Byram to turn things around. With 246 games under his belt, he’s sneaking up on 300 games which is a good sample size in evaluating what a player has become. For reference, oft-injured Mattias Samuelsson has played 212 games and is 25 years old and despite the injury lulls, we have a pretty good idea of who he is at this point.
The first players that came to mind with this question were Rasmus Ristolainen and Tyler Myers. Neither found their full form here playing a big role and for both it required a reduction in role and expectation to become serviceable players. Another interesting example is Brandon Montour. His big breakout came much later (73 points at age 28), but his underlying defensive impacts have been pretty consistently subpar throughout his career. Now, you don’t exactly pay Montour for his defense, but I think the situations here are similar. What was more likely, that Montour truly found himself at 28 or that he had a bit of an outlier season offensively and his numbers spiked?
There is value in the return you get when pairing Byram with Dahlin and it’s a pair they should revisit this season. Byram’s offense was terrific in the first half of the season and stapling him to Dahlin again ought to yield positive results. But knowing that so much of his production evaporates if he’s playing with anyone else, and given that his negative underlyings have persisted, he’s still an extremely risky player to sign long term and someone I hope Adams is still working to move.
@Frostybflo.bsky.social Assuming no more player moves, how do you see the roster working with Lindy’s coaching style/system?
Considering there hasn’t been all that much turnover, I’m expecting to see a lot of what we did last year. Maybe losing Lafferty and Peterka and adding Kesselring and Doan cleans up their d-zone a bit. But the coaching staff is the same and the core of the roster hasn’t changed all that much so I’m not counting on a massive shift in playing stay and effectiveness. There are some outliers though. If the players they’re counting on to pop do indeed enjoy breakout seasons, the top six could be threatening. It’s hard to have faith in that outcome because they need so much to go right. Given the relative lack of roster turnover, I think it’s more likely you see minimal differences in how the players function in Ruff’s system.
@Jamdab29 Is winning the only way to bring respect or relevance for proven all stars to want to play here? Seems like part ownership wouldn’t move the needle.
The short answer is yes. The Sabres have been a dumpster fire for virtually all of Adams’ tenure and things weren’t all that much better under Jason Botterill or Tim Murray. That doesn’t mean Terry Pegula couldn’t lay the groundwork to make the team more attractive, but winning will cure most of their issues. Beyond winning, there’s only so much ownership can do about the perception of the city and market (though I wouldn’t mind if he wanted to put up a few buildings in Canalside). What he can do is make investments into the building and team infrastructure to indicate that they’re serious about winning. He did it when he first took over with that massive renovation of the locker room and weight facilities. I don’t think it would hurt one bit if he did a bit more of that. Spending a bit more on a winning roster wouldn’t hurt either.
@Svnty77.bsky.social Move you’d like to see? Can be roster, staff, jerseys, arena amenities, etc.
I’m going to put the roster on the back burner for this one since they look fairly well set and roster choices have been such a hot topic on so many platforms.
The thing I’d love to see is something I’ve harped on for a while now: a Sabres museum and hall of fame. Now that the Canalside and ECHDC staff have moved to their new building in Canalside, there is a ton of open space behind the Sabres Store. The space would allow the team to curate the experience how they saw fit; with interactive exhibits and games along with an area to honor all of the inductees to the Sabres Hall of Fame. It could be a year round fan destination, bringing in foot traffic on game nights or summer afternoons. The location also makes it easy to connect the exit to the Sabres Store, thus encouraging patrons to pick up some merch on their way out.
As part of that work, I’d also like to see the Sabres reconfigure the rarely used patio above the Sabres Store by enclosing the space and making it a second floor to the store. I think it would be cool to make it some sort of New Era flagship experience, where you can shop their entire Sabres collection plus Buffalo exclusives. The first floor would gain space for new or different merchandise while the New Era space on the second floor would add a new vibe to that end of the atrium. It would also be much easier for fans to enter and exit the store during games, which is something I’ve found to be a bit of a headache.
Making that second level a New Era store would also allow the Sabres to remove the New Era location on the opposite end of the atrium, thus creating an opportunity to repurpose that space into something new like a bar or other area for fans to congregate on event nights.
@Goldsabre.bsky.social – Why is the Sabres coaching staff the same? It’s indefensible after the last year.
I wish I knew. Very little about it makes much sense to me. I can understand wanting to exercise patience with Seth Appert. He was brand new and I suspect their original plan was to make him the coach in waiting for when Ruff’s contract ends this coming spring. But I can’t make heads or tails of keeping any of the others around other than the owner not wishing to pay people not to work for him.
@Kevinpalmer.bsky.social Rosen, Ostlund, Helenius…who plays more games in Buffalo?
For this season, I think it’s Ostlund. He got a bit more favorable deployment than Rosen did last season (both played eight games) and I feel he was the more impactful player of the two. Injuries may tip the scale in favor of Rosen, but I think the team has a higher opinion of Ostlund and will want to get him up whenever possible.
@PhilPhil192319 1:How many goals do Malenstyn, Krebs, and Doan need to make playoffs?
Short of a 50 goal explosion, I’m not sure Malenstyn’s offensive contributions would move the needle on a potential Sabres playoff berth. Doan is definitely the most interesting of this group and probably has the most opportunity to play higher in the lineup. His offensive is mostly speculative since he only has 12 career goals across 62 games. If he pops (this is the theme of the offseason) I think you’d be hoping to see somewhere between 15-20 goals. I’d say about the same for Krebs after his 10-goal season in 2024-25. If both Krebs and Doan land in that 15-20 goal neighborhood one of two things have happened. One, they both had strong offensive seasons and enjoyed a trickle down effect from the top of the forward group that helped boost their production. That, plus 30-40 goals from the pair would bode well for Buffalo’s playoff bonafides. Two, the Sabres suffered several key injuries, forcing both up the lineup where they were adequate replacements in roles which were over their heads. Which one are you hoping for?
@Dgw54321 Chances that GMKA is axed or moved elsewhere and Jarmo takes over as GM during the upcoming season?
@Headpool.bsky.social – Does Kevyn keep his job after they miss the playoffs again this year? Given that they had the same off-season as the last one my gut says yes.
These two are similar enough that I’m grouping them together. I get the feeling that Jarmo Kekalainen was brought in not only to advise Kevyn Adams, but as a ready made replacement. It’s been reported that a majority of the hockey department are on the final year of their contracts, meaning Pegula can walk away at the end of the year if the Sabres fail to make the playoffs. That path likely leads to Kekalainen taking over, though you can’t rule out a wider GM search.
I’m less confident Adams would lose his job midseason. If a 13-game losing streak and several disastrous press conferences didn’t earn him a pink slip, I’m not sure anything could. My expectation is that Adams plays out the string with Kekalainen slated as his replacement should they miss the playoffs again.
@Mikeofthegeorge.bsky.social If they do actually make the playoffs, how sustainable do you think future success will be and how smug do you think Adams will be with the media and honestly is there any point in caring about this team anymore?
I doubt that even the most smug version of Jeremy Clarkson’s smug face wouldn’t be enough to reflect how Adams would tackle questions about his roster management decisions. Adams has been pretty conservative with his roster decisions which has prevented the team from landing many big fish, but it has left their core somewhat unscathed. If the light finally went on for these guys, I think there would be a fair amount of sustainability with the roster.
Key foundational pieces like Dahlin, Power and Thompson are all under long term contracts, Ryan McLeod has term and I think any Sabres playoff team would rely on a healthy and effective Josh Norris, another player with term. A playoff berth would suggest that Kesselring was a valuable addition and others on the roster had blossomed. Even though their current playoff outlook rests on hopes and prayers, the foundation of talent they have is good enough that if everything did click they’d be in a decent position to build upon that success.
@Td619 Which option would you take? A. Terry Pegula stays owner but continues his penny-pinching ways; Sabres never spend to the cap.
B. Pegula sells Sabres to a new owner with no Buffalo ties, creating relocation concerns, but they instantly spend to the cap/make major roster moves.
Option B. I’ll take a gamble on an owner who is committed to building a winner and investing in the roster and organization despite lacking deep ties to the region. I’m willing to bet that with a competitive Sabres team that reignites passion in the fanbase (and thus starts selling out games), leaves an out-of-town owner content with the way things run here. Don’t forget that the league has only resorted to relocation twice in the last 15 years and both instances were break glass in case of emergency situations. The league is pushing hard for expansion and the multi-billion dollar fees that come with it as opposed to relocation. I’d have very little fear of relocation in a world where the Sabres function as a competitive and respected organization.
Two in the Box 