Two in the Box

This is a crucial offseason for Kevyn Adams and the Buffalo Sabres. This isn’t exactly new information for anyone who followed along as Buffalo’s playoff drought reached 14 years. A year after Adams tossed around phrases like “win now” the Sabres roster doesn’t feel any closer to breaking that drought than they did in the spring of 2024. 

There is certainly an expectation that Adams will finally have the sort of offseason fans have been hoping to see from him in each of the last two years. An active, aggressive approach to bring in players who can move the needle has been glaringly absent in recent years and this may be Adams’ last chance to get it right. 

Buffalo currently holds the ninth selection in this year’s draft after sliding two spots as a result of the draft lottery. Even if they had held their original draft slot, the Sabres weren’t likely to land one of the top talents in this year’s draft. While there are a handful of intriguing prospects who will be available at pick nine, none jump off the page as the sort of must-have talent that could take Buffalo to the next level. Another good, but not great, first round prospect won’t move the needle much for the Sabres. Certainly not in the short term. The relative weakness of the draft class and the glaring need for help on Buffalo’s roster have left many hoping Adams will trade his first round pick for help this summer. 

Some caution is required for anyone on Team Trade the Pick as offseason swaps of first rounders have been fairly rare in recent years. It’s not unheard of and since 2018 at least one first round pick was moved before or at the draft that year. In total, 19 first round picks have been used in hockey trades going back to the 2018 draft. Of those 19 picks, 12 were moved in the summer the selection would be made. The exact sort of move many fans will be hoping to see Adams make before the ninth selection at this year’s draft. 

A bit of context is required before we explore these deals any further. Going back to 2018 is a bit of an arbitrary line to draw, but I wanted to try and remain fairly recent in the timeframe I analyzed given the way the league’s trade market shifts. Using a seven year cutoff still allowed me to find a healthy number of trades for comparison without getting too far afield when it came to return. The 19 picks in question came from 18 trades which were hockey trades. Meaning I didn’t count pick swaps or any sort of pure futures trades. I also kept my analysis to trades made at or around the draft. There were a few instances in which a future pick was used in a trade – the Sam Reinhart trade being an example – which don’t offer much insight into the fate of Buffalo’s 2025 first. That leaves 12 trades of note which could provide a bit of insight as to how Adams may maneuver over the next month. 

The most recent examples came over the last two offseasons. Ottawa’s acquisition of Linus Ullmark that came during last year’s Cup Finals, saw the Senators use a 2024 1st they had previously acquired to bring in the goaltender from Boston. Interestingly, Boston re-acquired their own pick in this deal as the Bruins originally traded it to Detroit for Tyler Bertuzzi before the Red Wings used it to acquire Alex DeBrincat. 

Another recent example of a first round pick being leveraged in a hockey move came in the three-team deal between Columbus, Los Angeles and Philadelphia that sent Ivan Provorov to the Blue Jackets and a 2023 first round pick to the Flyers. Montreal brought in Alex Newhook from Colorado at that same draft. Similarly to Ottawa, both deals at the 2023 draft involved a first round pick that the trading team had previously acquired. Montreal’s coming in the Ben Chariot trade with Florida and Columbus acquiring LA’s pick in the Vladislav Gavrikov/Joonas Korpisalo deal. 

None of those deals are an ideal comparable for the Sabres as all three of those deals involve an additional first round pick that had been previously acquired. The Sabres lack that flexibility. Additionally, all three picks fell in the second half of the first round. 

You need to go back to the 2022 draft to find a comparable pick to Buffalo’s being traded. That came when the Senators sent the seventh selection to Chicago for Alex DeBrincat. The Blackhawks also picked up the 13th pick from Montreal in exchange for Kirby Dach – a pick the Habs flipped to Chicago after the Islanders traded for Alexander Romanov. That draft day maneuvering was a bit of a coup for the Blackhawks after they spent what would become the sixth pick in that draft (plus 12th overall in 2021) on Seth Jones the year prior. 

While the draft pick involved is of lower value than Buffalo’s 2025 selection, I think the Kings using 19th overall and Brock Faber to land Kevin Fiala might be the best framework for a potential Sabres trade. LA shipped a valuable prospect and a first round selection to acquire a top six talent who they felt would put them over the top. How far does ninth overall and Jack Quinn get you? What about the ninth pick and Noah Ostlund? Ninth and Konsta Helenius? That strikes me as a pretty strong starting point for acquiring help on the blueline (or at forward). 

Packaging the pick with a prospect or another sweetener would be the most likely outcome. The DeBrincat trade is the only deal where a pick was moved one-for-one. All of the other similar trades included at least one sweetener. Some were minimal, like the fourth round pick the Islanders included to get Romanov or Montreal packaging a second round pick with that Islanders first to get Dach. There may also be a bit of a tax applied to this draft class, depending on the team the Sabres are negotiating with. Either way, I would expect the league’s current trade economy to require Adams to add something to his first round pick if he hopes to move it. 

The ninth overall pick may be the most valuable piece of currency the Sabres have if they truly want to improve their roster. You don’t need to look far to find the framework for the sort of deal the Sabres should be targeting. It’s on the GM to pull the trigger. 

Here is the list of first round picks move at or around the draft since 2018:

2024 

• Ottawa acquires Linus Ullmark from Boston for Boston’s 2024 1st (25OA), Mark Kastelic and Joonas Korpisalo
  • Ottawa acquired Boston’s 1st in July 2023 after trading Alex DeBrincat to Detroit. Detroit acquired the pick from Boston in exchange for Tyler Bertuzzi.

2023 

• Columbus acquires Ivan Provorov, Los Angeles acquires Kevin Connauton and Hayden Hodgson and Philadelphia acquires Los Angeles’ 2023 1st (22OA), a conditional 2nd round pick, 2024 2nd round pick, Cal Petersen, Sean Walker and Helge Grans
  • Columbus acquired LA’s pick in exchange for Korpisalo and Vladislav Gavrikov at the 2023 deadline. 
• Montreal acquires Alex Newhook from Colorado in exchange for Florida’s 2023 1st (31OA), 2023 2nd round pick and Gianni Fairbrother

2022

• Columbus acquired Chicago’s 2022 1st (6OA) in exchange for Seth Jones in 2021 (full trade listed below)
• Ottawa acquires Alex DeBrincat from Chicago in exchange for Ottawa’s 2022 1st (7OA), 2022 2nd round pick and 2024 3rd round pick.
• Montreal acquired Kirby Dach from Chicago in exchange for NY Islanders 2022 1st (13OA) and 2022 2nd round pick.
  • Montreal acquired Islanders 1st in exchange for Alexander Romanov and a 2022 4th round pick (both trades made at draft)
• Florida acquires Sam Reinhart from Buffalo in exchange for Florida’s 2022 1st (16OA) and Devon Levi (trade made at 2021 draft)
• Los Angeles acquires Kevin Fiala from Minnesota in exchange for Brock Faber and Los Angeles’ 2022 1st (19OA)
• Colorado acquired Darcy Kuemper from Arizona in exchange for Colorado’s 2022 1st (32OA), a conditional 2024 3rd round pick and Conor Timmins (trade made in July 2021)

2021 

• Vancouver acquires Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Conor Garland from Arizona in exchange for Vancouver’s 2021 1st (9OA), Jay Beagle, Antoine Roussel, Loui Eriksson, 2022 2nd round pick, and 2023 7th round pick
• Chicago acquires Seth Jones, Tampa Bay’s 2021 1st (32OA) and a 6th round pick from Columbus in exchange for Chicago’s 2021 1st (12OA), Chicago’s 2022 1st round pick (see above), 2nd round pick and Adam Boqvist
• Philadelphia acquires Rasmus Ristolainen from Buffalo in exchange for Philadelphia’s 2021 1st (14OA), 2023 2nd round pick and Robert Hagg

2020 

• Pittsburgh acquires Kasperi Kapanen, Pontus Aberg and Jesper Lingren from Toronto in exchange for Pittsburgh’s 2020 1st (15OA), Evan Rodrigues, Filip Hallander and David Warsofsky
• Vancouver acquires JT Miller from Tampa Bay in exchange for Vancouver’s 2020 1st (20OA), 2019 3rd round pick and Marek Mazanec (trade made at 2019 draft)

2019

• NY Rangers acquire Jacob Trouba from Winnipeg in exchange for Winnipeg’s 2019 1st (20OA) and Neal Pionk
  • New York acquired Winnipeg’s 1st round pick at the 2019 deadline in exchange for Kevin Hayes
• St. Louis acquires Ryan O’Reilly from Buffalo in exchange for Patrik Berglund, Vladimir Sobotka, Tage Thompson, St. Louis’ 2019 1st (31OA), 2021 2nd round pick (trade made in July 2018)

2018 

• Calgary acquires Travis Hamonic and a conditional 2019 4th round pick from NY Islanders in exchange for Calgary’s 2018 1st (12OA), 2018 2nd round pick and conditional 2019 2nd round pick (trade made in June 2017)
• St. Louis acquires Brayden Schenn from Philadelphia in exchange for Jori Lehtera, Washington’s 2018 1st (14OA)