Two in the Box

Once again, there are more questions than answers in the Buffalo goal crease as the offseason approaches. 

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen did not carry the play that earned him a five-year extension into this season. Instead, his continued regression threw another log onto the burning wreckage of this season as he’s seemingly ceded starting duties to James Reimer over the last two weeks. 

Luukkonen was one of the bright spots of the 2023-24 season and served as the unquestioned starter for the majority of this season, despite his up and down play. Only recently has Lindy Ruff changed course, starting Reimer in all but two of the last eight games. Luukkonen has only started on the front half of two back-to-back sets, taking losses on March 22 and 29 against Minnesota and Philadelphia, respectively. It’s a complete course reversal from Ruff, who played Luukkonen in eight of the first 10 games of March, only playing Reimer twice, with his starts coming 17 days apart. 

For his part, Reimer has been steady. He won’t be mistaken for a Vezina candidate any time soon, but he’s made timely saves and the results have followed. He’s won five straight and posted a 4-1-1 record to Luukkonen’s 3-7-0 mark in March (Reimer is 5-1-1 in his last seven after Tuesday’s win in Ottawa). While Reimer has had three stellar starts over this current run, Luukkonen’s play has been defined by leaky goals and poor results. In the month of March alone, he’s allowed five or more goals on four occasions while allowing two or fewer just twice. 

With the season long over, how this affects Buffalo’s approach to the offseason is a far bigger issue. And specifically how they choose to manage Devon Levi. 

Given his contract, it would seem likely that Luukkonen will return as the incumbent starter. Ensuring he has a reliable partner in place who can take on a greater workload is vital. I would hope the Sabres take caution in evaluating Reimer’s recent play as they weigh backup options for 2025-26. While his play has been encouraging, is it sustainable over the course of an entire year? Can he take on 10-15 more starts across the entire season? These are important questions to ask of a 37 year old goalie who the organization seemed to view as their number three at the opening of the season.

It’s also possible the Sabres try Levi as Luukkonen’s primary backup once again. While he has been unable to maintain any sort of consistency in the NHL the last two years, he has been stellar for the Rochester Americans. That has been especially true this season as he’s sporting an impressive 22-10-4 record with a .917 SV% and six shutouts. He was an AHL All Star and even earned Goalie of the Month honors in February. From a development perspective, Levi has done virtually everything the Sabres have asked of him. It’s entirely possible that they think he’s ready to take a step. 

However, for a team that can’t afford a single misstep in their roster management, betting on Levi isn’t that far off from betting on Reimer as the backup. There’s no question that Levi would have the physical stamina to easily manage 30 starts in a season, his struggles to open the last two years are a major red flag. And when you take the development track of other up-and-coming young starters into account, giving Levi one final year of starter’s minutes in Rochester doesn’t look so bad. 

Thanks in part to Buffalo’s desire to get Levi into the NHL, he’s only played 62 career AHL games. While his play over the last two seasons has been impressive, that’s a relatively small sample when compared to the amount of pro games other goaltenders played prior to earning a full time NHL jobs. 

Many NHL goaltenders played somewhere in the neighborhood of 100 professional games before they took on full time NHL jobs. That’s not a hard and fast rule but some combination of roughly 100 pro games seems to lay the framework for adjusting to pro shooters and adapting to the jump from college, junior or Europe. Dustin Wolf shares many traits with Levi as they’re both sub-six foot, seventh round picks. Wolf played 141 AHL games before the Flames decided he was ready for a full time look in the NHL. He’ll likely garner Calder Trophy votes this year thanks to his exploits in Calgary. 

Aside from a few exceptions, that 100 game plateau has proven valuable for a substantial set of goalies around the league. For example, not only did Lukas Dostal play 98 AHL games before securing regular NHL minutes, he also played 92 post-draft professional games in Europe. Another 7th round NCAA product, Joey Daccord, played 98 AHL games and enjoyed a breakout last year. 

There are a host of other NHL goaltenders who have followed a similar path. While this is not a comprehensive list, it does a good job illustrating the benefit of a healthy AHL workload before being promoted to an NHL job:

• Connor Hellebuyck – 88 AHL games
• Thatcher Demko – 107 AHL games
• Joseph Woll – 83 AHL games
• Adin Hill – 140 AHL games (112 games prior to his first stint as a backup in Arizona)
• Logan Thomspon – 50 AHL games, 40 ECHL games
• Sergei Bobrovsky – Over 100 Russian pro games prior to free agent signing (undrafted)
• Igor Shesterkin – 25 AHL games, 95 KHL games
• Pyotr Kochetkov – 44 AHL games, 56 games in Russia (KHL/MHL/VHL)
• Andrei Vasilevskiy – 37 AHL games (split with NHL time), 63 games KHL/MHL

If he started every remaining game of Rochester’s season, Levi would have 70 career AHL games at the end of this season. That borders on the low end of what others have played before jumping to the NHL full time. 

It’s hard to know if the Sabres will have the patience to get Levi to 100 games (or more) considering they needed to be forced into sending him down in each of the last two seasons. It certainly seems like Rochester would be the most beneficial place for him to play again next season. Strictly from the perspective of this exercise, another 40 or 50 games would put him firmly in place with other goalies around the league in terms of development time. It would also offer more playing time than playing in tandem with Luukkonen would likely offer. A starter’s workload in the AHL would mean he’d play at a much more consistent cadence than he would sharing the net with Luukkonen. Although, it’s possible that if Luukkonen doesn’t rebound that Levi could wind up with the lion’s share of games. As an aside, the Sabres will also need to find games for Topias Leinonen and Scott Ratzlaff in the minors next year. On the surface, giving Levi one more season in Rochester gives him the best opportunity for games and growth. 

The Sabres may also look at the fairly thin goaltending market, their aging backup and Levi’s pair of impressive AHL stints and decide the time has come to get him to the NHL full time. He does have 39 NHL games under his belt, which puts him much closer to that 100-game marker. But the question must be asked. Can the Sabres afford to roll the dice with Levi and Luukkonen if Levi’s play is subpar once again? 

At some point the Sabres will need to see what Levi has grown into and if the drought continues, no time will ever feel convenient. Whether it’s this fall or if he’s given one more year in Rochester, the time to see if his development paid off will come. Based on how other goaltenders have fared, giving him one final year in Rochester feels like the best recipe for success. But don’t be surprised if a successful playoff run this spring puts him in the driver’s seat for a job with the Sabres in the fall.