Two in the Box

The salary cap is going up. Way up. 

The NHL has confirmed salary cap figures for the next three seasons, including a caveat that the numbers could be adjusted further (up or down) if necessary. But as it stands, the salary cap figures for the next three seasons will be as follows:

2025-26

Upper Limit: $95.5m

Lower Limit: $70.6m

2026-27

Upper: $104m

Lower: $76.9m

2027-28

Upper: $113.5m

Lower: $83.9m

That’s about $7 million in growth this summer and about $9 million in the following two years. Notably, the cap floor in 2027-28 will be just $5 million lower than this year’s cap. It’s also $2 million more than the Sabres have committed to the cap this season. 

The rapid cap growth will have implications throughout the league, especially for teams that typically operate on an internal budget. The possibility of a widening gulf between big and small spenders and what it could mean for the league’s competitive balance shouldn’t be overlooked. Whether or not Terry Pegula finds another oil well to drill, the increase to the cap creates new opportunities and flexibility for the Sabres. 

Barring any trades which would significantly impact their current cap charge, the Sabres will have $33 million in cap space to work with this offseason with $61.7 million already committed. Those figures are both from Puck Pedia, which counts 13 NHL contracts towards Buffalo’s roster and 22 in total. Depending how you view it, they’ll have between 10 and 12 free agents of note to manage. Those players are Jason Zucker and Jordan Greenway (both unrestricted) in addition to Bowen Byram, Devon Levi, Ryan McLeod, JJ Peterka and Jack Quinn (all restricted). Even though Buffalo’s RFAs won’t garner the sort of extensions that Kevyn Adams claimed he needed to save cap space for, extensions for Byram and Peterka alone should put the Sabres over the cap floor, while their other RFAs will likely garner more modest extensions. That will make reaching the floor a fairly easy task. 

The irony of the larger cap increase coming in the wake of Adams’ bluster about future extensions is not lost on me. While it’s an easy point to hammer Adams on, we’re well past the point where investing this year’s savings from Jeff Skinner’s buyout would be relevant. The good news is that the growth in the cap will help mitigate the cost of the buyout penalty over the final three seasons Skinner is on the books. This isn’t any sort of surprise, as there was an exception the cap would go up, but knowing the outlay for the next three seasons provides valuable confirmation on how the Sabres will be affected by the buyout penalty. The $9 million jump next summer will be especially beneficial as 2026-27 is the season when Skinner’s buyout counts $6.4 million towards the cap. Without accounting for any other extensions or additions, gaining $3 million more in growth beyond that penalty is of great benefit to the Sabres, even if they don’t spend to the cap ceiling. Should something finally go right for this team, they won’t be handcuffed by Skinner’s buyout the way they would have under flat or minimal cap growth. 

There may even be more reason to consider a buyout for Mattias Samuelsson. As a 1/3 buyout candidate, Samuelsson would only count $714,286 against the cap every year the buyout is on the books. The Sabres would be paying his buyout until 2034-35, which is forever, but a small penalty to pay to get out from under his contract at the lower rate. The $700K hit would be manageable no matter what, but with a growing cap it’s that much easier to fit. Considering Samuelsson’s regression on the ice and injury history, getting out from under his contract would be a net positive on the blueline, opening space for an addition and shedding an injury prone player with questionable impacts who isn’t particularly physical despite his role. 

The math on buying out Samuelsson is favorable to the Sabres even if the cap wasn’t jumping higher, it shouldn’t even be a question given the extra space. 

Naturally, the new cap ceiling means greater flexibility in trade and free agency talks. That’s a benefit all 32 teams will enjoy. Even if the Sabres don’t break from their thrifty budgeting, they will have the ability to offer their unrestricted free agents more favorable cap hits ahead of July 1, a potentially positive option for a team that will struggle in the recruiting department once the market opens. For example, they could offer Jason Zucker $6.5 or $7 million while the market might only offer $5. That doesn’t suggest that they’ll spend all of their additional cap space, but entering the summer with $33 million in space does grant them some benefits. 

The looming issue surrounding the NHL’s growing salary cap is how it will be utilized across the board. Many have already asked what the higher cap numbers could mean for parity across all 32 teams. It’s a fair concern, in my opinion. If the league separates into defined spending tiers, I’m not sure what will prevent big market clubs from exerting more power in the free agent and trade markets. That isn’t a guarantee of success, but if the market is squeezed because there is more freedom of movement, there is potential for talent to be more concentrated to the teams willing or capable of spending to the cap. One benefit that virtually every fan will benefit from is the potential for more roster movement. More cap space creates the opportunity for more trades, something I’d expect many would welcome with open arms. 

For a team like the Sabres, who have been a bottom 10 spending team eight times since 2013-14, there are some serious questions about how they plan to be competitive in the NHL’s evolving economic environment. Does Pegula open the proverbial purse strings? Or are the Sabres destined to live in the murky middle of the leagues budget teams? The days of no financial constraints and promises of drilling more oil wells feel like ancient history in these parts. Pegula and the Sabres have been on a pretty clear path with respect to how they manage their roster spending. But that may need to change if they expect to be competitive in the coming years. The Sabres don’t need to blindly spend to the cap, throwing all caution to the wind. But if they hope to secure the sort of talent to round out this roster, they’ll almost certainly need to accept that additional investment is needed and they definitely won’t be able to leave the sort of shortfall they did this year if they’re going to be serious about winning games.