Two in the Box

The 4 Nations Face Off will be the closest the U.S. has been to Canada in terms of overall talent at any point in best-on-best international play. The Americans beat the Canadians in 1996 and they were one shot away from another sweep in 2010, but neither of those teams were close to their Canadian counterparts on the basis of talent. The Americans have a young and deep group of players to select from and should be able to ice a roster that can go toe-to-toe with the Canadians. 

It’s a shame there isn’t a mechanism that would allow them to trade a goaltender to Canada for a forward or defenseman simply given how rich the U.S. is at the position. There are easily four, if not five, goaltenders worthy of consideration for this roster, a strength that will largely be squandered in a tournament that is so short. That isn’t to say the Americans shouldn’t feel confident in their goaltending, but it’s the one position where depth as impressive as theirs won’t really matter given the nature of the position. But goalie isn’t the only area where the Americans should feel confident. So long as they don’t repeat the mistakes of 2014 and 2016, they should have an immensely talented lineup at their disposal. 

Kyle Connor – Auston Matthews – Matthew Tkachuk

Perhaps you’d want another distributor on Matthews’ left wing as opposed to another goal scorer, but I like giving Connor a pair of linemates who can drive play so he can serve as a finisher. Matthews and William Nylander do a fine job co-existing on a line together, I doubt there would be much issue with these three. 

Jason Roberston – Jack Eichel – Chris Krieder

Krieder is deadly on the power play but on a roster this deep, I’m not sure if he’d be a priority for either unit with so many other studs on the roster. But his net front play on the man advantage is a weapon and at even strength I like his ability to play direct, using his speed to his advantage. I’d anticipate Eichel’s playmaking to shine with these two alongside him.

Dylan Larkin – Jack Hughes – Alex DeBrincat

The combo of Hughes and DeBrincat ought to be a fruitful one for the Americans. Meshing Hughes distribution with DeBrincat’s finishing. Larkin is more than talented enough to keep pace with these two, though he’d be an easy option to bump down a line for an alternative choice. 

Jake Guentzel – JT Miller – Brady Tkachuk

Extra: Brock Boeser

This sort of shapes up to be a bit of a matchup line in the sense that both Miller and Tkachuk can offer a heavier style of play as needed, but in practice it’s three more top-six talents for the U.S. to throw over the boards. Tkachuk (and his brother) offer a profile few others in this tournament can and it’s not at the expense of skill. Guentzel and Boeser both offer lineup flexibility and can be shuffled through lines if certain center/wing combinations don’t bear fruit. Should Boeser’s resurgence carry into another season, I’d expect him to bump someone else into the extra forward role. Until that plays out, I have him as the 13th forward. 

Jaccob Slavin – Adam Fox

In an effort to find some balance in the pairs I’ve slid Slavin “up” and Quinn Hughes down, though this alignment hardly needs to be considered gospel. Fox has an all encompassing prowess that would allow him to take on virtually any partner the American staff cares to throw at him. In pairing him with Slavin, I see a pair that will take on some tougher matchups while providing some space for the other immensely talented defenders the Americans will be bringing. 

Quinn Hughes – Charlie McAvoy

If the U.S. winds up with a Hughes/Fox pairing, I wouldn’t blink an eye. That’s definitely ripe for some more high event hockey, but breakouts would be a breeze with those two playing together. There’s not much of a drop off from Fox to McAvoy for me and I think there’s reason to believe he could wind up as the most important defenseman on this roster when it’s all said and done. 

K’Andre Miller – Brock Faber

Extra: Luke Hughes

I think Miller often gets overlooked for the other two American defenseman on the Rangers but I think he brings more to the table than Jacob Trouba in this scenario. It may be a lot to ask for him to skate alongside Brock Faber, but all the Wild rookie has done is look like a seasoned vet throughout the course of this year. We’ll see if he holds this spot once his sophomore season kicks off, but I couldn’t find a reason to leave him off. As for Miller, he boasts strong underlying numbers, imposing size and his play doesn’t hinge on power play production, something that will be at a premium with Fox, Hughes and McAvoy getting a regular shift, let alone if Luke Hughes is also in the lineup. I left Hughes as the extra here due to the power play limitations. I can’t see a version of this team where he supplants Fox, McAvoy or his brother for power play time and I’d have some questions about what he’d bring at even strength given the competition they’ll be facing. 

Connor Hellebuyck, Thatcher Demko, Jeremy Swayman

Goaltending for the Americans will be pretty cut and dry. Hellebuyck is the league’s best goaltender and will be the odds on favorite. Some combination of Demko, Swayman and Jake Oettinger will round out the roster when the time comes, and that evaluation will probably be heavily weighted by their performance in 2024-25. Given where we are today, Swayman edges out Oettinger, but that could change four times over between now and when rosters are announced. It’s just too bad this massive strength can’t be leveraged in another way. 

Names to Watch:

Jake Oettinger – As noted above, he’s the odd man out in this exercise as his performance this year is a step behind the other three. The order could easily flip in the interim. 

Tage Thompson – Perhaps a victim of recency bias, at this time last year Thompson would have been an easy choice for this roster and a player like Brock Boeser wouldn’t come anywhere close to it. Of all of his traits, Thompson’s ability to penalty kill might be the one that puts him over the top when final roster decisions are made. I think the group I projected has enough to offer shorthanded, but Thompson’s length and success doing the job with the Sabres shouldn’t be overlooked. 

Clayton Keller – Despite being marooned in Arizona, Keller just keeps putting up impressive numbers. It’s hard to see which other forward he would supplant, but I won’t be surprised in the least if he makes the final cut for the Americans. 

Jacob Trouba/John Carlson – A two-fold offer here. First, I suspect Trouba will be a popular pick for the U.S. He’s drawn a ton of attention for his physical brand of hockey and that’s something many will latch on to in terms of identifying different types of players when projecting the U.S. roster. However, I don’t love his underlying numbers and I think chasing his body checking and toughness could be a poor trade off. Still, I think he has a good reputation in league circles and will be someone the Americans take a close look at. 

I added Carlson here as another veteran option for what turned out to be a pretty young defense group. Like with Trouba, I think Bill Guerin and his staff will want that sort of experience on the blueline and it would be very easy to exchange either Carlson or Trouba for Faber on this roster. 

Vincent Trocheck – The one thing this roster isn’t long on are additional center options. Trocheck isn’t a marquee talent but could ride along as an extra forward or on the fourth line, providing the Americans with one more player capable of taking draws.