Two in the Box

The season may only be four games old, but the Sabres’ 1-3 start has put some of the fans’ biggest offseason concerns in the spotlight.

Buffalo’s decision to leave the roster largely untouched and lean on their unproven trio of goaltenders was chief among the offseason debate in Sabres circles. Leaning on a roster that made the Sabres the third highest scoring team in the NHL wasn’t a terrible choice when you dig into the data. Kevyn Adams has continued to lock up the core of his roster and it was those players – most notably Tage Thompson (47 goals), Dylan Cozens (31 goals) and Rasmus Dahlin (73 points) – who pushed the Sabres to the top of the league’s scoring race. The choices in goal were a greater gamble. 

Eric Comrie and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen’s struggles last season underscored the position that likely kept the Sabres out of the playoffs. While Devon Levi has shown promise (and was stout in Tuesday’s win over Tampa), handing the keys to a 21-year old with seven games of NHL experience is unprecedented. If there was one position where fans would have agreed with more tangible reinforcement, it would have been in net. The league’s goalie market from the summer made that proposition much harder to accomplish than maybe some assume. 

Connor Hellebuyck was far and away the best goaltender available over the summer. There were widespread reports that the Jets were shopping the former Vezina winner, though a deal never materialized. Hellebuyck’s contract status almost certainly played a role in the lack of a trade. While Hellebuyck was a goaltender I felt could push the Sabres to a playoff berth, I would not have pursued him with a lengthy contract extension attached. Now that he’s signed a seven-year, $59.5 million extension, it would be hard to see the logic in acquiring that sort of player given the faith the organization has in Levi. 

Others on the free agent market also signed deals which simply wouldn’t align with the long term plans the Sabres have for Levi and their goaltending in general. Overall, the thin market would have made it very difficult for Adams to make an addition which would have been a true improvement in net without totally blocking Levi’s path. But it seems important to revisit that market to better understand which goalies, if any, would have truly been logical for Adams to pursue. That way, if the question arises again later this season, we can have a more informed reflection on Adams’ options. 

Frederik Andersen

Andersen went back to the Hurricanes on a two-year pact at a manageable $3.4 annual cap hit. Carolina’s crease is in a bit of flux as Pytor Kochetkov is knocking on the door for an NHL job and he’s only 28 games shy of needing waivers. Carolina has structured their contracts well in this case. Antti Raanta (who signed a one-year extension of his own this summer) will be an unrestricted free agent next summer while Andersen will enter the final year of his deal with the opportunity for Kochetkov to take a full time NHL job for 2024-25. The opportunity with regard to Andersen would have been to lure him with a slightly more lucrative cap hit over the same contract term. That would have allowed Andersen to share the crease with Levi with the youngster taking a larger share of the starts than a traditional backup in hopes of alleviating the workload of the injury-prone Andersen. Of course, the Hurricanes are a bonafide Cup contender and they also have the structure to keep Andersen from being overworked. Even increasing that cap hit from 3.4 to 5.4 wouldn’t have likely pulled Andersen out of Raleigh. 

As an aside, it’s possible that the Sabres could have called on Raanta. Kochetkov doesn’t have much more to prove in the AHL and could benefit from more NHL time. Offering Raanta a touch more than the $1.5m he signed for could have been enough to interest him in ditching what could be another three-goalie rotation in Ralieigh. He too would’ve been an upgrade over Comrie and Luukkonen, though he also has some dubious injury luck and wouldn’t have been as stable of an upgrade as his partner in Carolina or others on this list. 

Martin Jones

The last time Jones completed a season with a GAA under three and a save percentage over .900 was 2018. Perhaps more concerning, he couldn’t carve out a job with an organization with just about as many questions in net as the Sabres have. Despite his woeful numbers (-4.9 GSAA last year), Jones was good for 27 wins in Seattle last year as the Kraken made their playoff debut. That gave him some favorable reviews heading into the summer and is likely why the Maple Leafs considered him as an option to back up Ilya Samsonov. As far as the Sabres are concerned, I’m happy this isn’t a path they seriously pursued, I’m not sure a goalie who was five goals saved below average at even strength would have been better than what the Sabres have in house. 

Cam Talbot

Talbot has gotten out of the gates fast – .921 SV% in two games as of this writing – but he struggled mightily behind a substandard Ottawa team last season. At 35 years old, he would have been a tough sell as an offseason upgrade. Particularly given how the year went for him in Ottawa.

Tristan Jarry

I will start this by noting that I am a fan of Jarry. He’s had consecutive years with horribly timed injuries which derailed the Penguins season each time. When healthy, he is an extremely capable starter. If he can manage to not fall victim to a late-season injury he ought to be a key piece to the Penguins returning to the postseason. The issue is that the Penguins are aware of this and they saw the same thin goaltending market as everyone else did. Hence the five-year, $26.8 million contract he was signed to. The cap hit would have been easily managed by the Sabres, the term causes some issues when you take Devon Levi into consideration. 

A two-year term would have been the best case scenario for the Sabres. That goes for Jarry or pretty much anyone else on this list. Year one would have allowed Levi to serve as an understudy, playing about 35 games as he adjusted to the rigors of an NHL season. Year two could have allowed Levi to take on another 7-12 games with an eye on inheriting the starter’s job the following season. Meanwhile, Jarry would have been the club’s starter, giving them stable goaltending as they try to end their playoff drought. Even at $6 million per year, that feels like a logical solution for the Sabres. But at five years, you’re in a really difficult situation when the time comes for Levi to take the next step. The term makes sense for the Penguins. Jarry is locked in as their starter and was their best choice for this season and beyond. But the Sabres are in a much different position and need to balance Levi’s growth with their short term outlook and it’s clear that was the focus of Adams’ decision making this summer.

Joonas Korpisalo

Korpisalo is a hard player to pin down. Is his true form the goalie who posted a .941 in the bubble playoffs (including an 85-save performance against Tampa)? Or is he the goalie who hasn’t broken .900 in half of his pro seasons? Early going in Ottawa has been so-so, albeit in just two games. Anton Forsberg has been sharp in his two games while Korpisalo has had one iffy and one strong start Further to that, is Korpisalo the type of goalie you would have been comfortable giving a five-year deal? I’m not sure I would’ve been overly pleased had the Sabres given him even a two-year deal, so I’m glad to see Ottawa work out this experiment. 

There were a few goaltenders thought to be available via trade over the summer. Aside from Hellebuyck, John Gibson and Carter Hart got the most attention around here, though neither moved. There was some speculation that Thatcher Demko could have been available, but it sounds like the Canucks had an astronomical price tag attached to him. I think it could have been possible to shake one of Calgary’s goaltenders loose, even Jacob Markstrom after the difficult year he had in 2022-23. Though, Markstrom would also have garnered a very steep price tag. There was also some thought that Juuse Saros could have been had, but I have a hard time believing that. 

Of that group, Demko and Hart are probably the two most attractive options given where the Sabres stood. Demko isn’t saddled with massive term (two years left at $5m per) and is one of the stronger starters around the league. He would have minimally been a perfect bridge goaltender to help Levi acclimate to life in the NHL. And if he was so good, he could have even garnered an extension down the line. It’s been an odd start for the Canucks. They dispatched the Oilers with some ease but have come back to earth since. If things were to go off the rails in Vancouver, could the Sabres swoop in to make an offer? Might be worth watching. 

Hart, meanwhile, has rewarded Philly’s faith in him. A 3-1 record and a sparking .929 save percentage certainly would look nice up in these parts. Given the reports on Philadelphia’s ask for Hart, I can’t really begrudge Adams for passing. Though he will have to make a difficult choice with some of these blue chip assets he has. At some point, we may be looking back at a failed trade approach, wishing the Sabres had been a bit more aggressive. 

John Gibson

All of that brings me to the last three goalies I want to highlight. There has been a fair share of connecting John Gibson and the Sabres that goes well beyond this past offseason. Gibson’s play has dipped precipitously these last few seasons and I can’t imagine many people would be impressed with him as an acquisition as a result. Chad did some good work on Gibson over at Expected Buffalo that paints him in a more favorable light. That he’s started 0-2 and Lukas Dostal made 32 saves to beat Carolina isn’t the most exciting thing to see. Given Anaheim’s place in their rebuild, I have to think Gibson is still available in trade talks. If the Sabres could pry him free for the price of a second round pick and a decent prospect, it could be worth consideration. 

Jeremy Swayman

There was a bit of smoke around Swayman and the Sabres. I’m not sure how legitimate it was, but there were a few moments over the summer where the two parties were connected. Trading for Swayman would represent a much different approach than pursuing anyone else on this list. Swayman is a few years older but would have been direct competition for Levi in the Sabres’ crease. He’s only 24 and still has RFA rights. He would have the price tag to match as well.

The biggest takeaway on Swayman, for me, is that he wouldn’t just be someone that was brought in to help spell Levi and aid in his growth as an NHL goaltender. Swayman could just as easily have become the teams’ goalie of the future depending on his play. Blocking Levi in that way could be a turn off for some, but if the conclusion was that the Sabres wound up locking in a starter for years to come, what difference does it make who that player is?

Karel Vejmelka

Probably the goalie who didn’t nearly get enough attention as a target for the Sabres. Arizona is firmly in rebuild mode. Vejmelka has given them excellent goaltending despite the deficiencies throughout the roster. He was good for an 8.1 GSAA at five-on-five last season (11.1 in all situations!) and came out of the gates flying this year. He made 33 saves to beat the Devils and made 33 more in a 1-0 loss to the Islanders. He has faced 30 or more shots 74 times in his brief NHL career (102 starts) and 40 or more 19 times. He could really improve the fortunes of a contender given the right situation. He has another season on his contract after 2023-24 and while the price would be high, it’s hard not to think that buying at least one more year of starts wouldn’t be worth heavy consideration. 

Buffalo would probably need to part ways with one of their prized prospects (pick from the group of Kulich, Savoie, Rosen and Ostlund) in addition to at least a second round pick and one of their current backups. That may not even be enough to get it done considering rumored asks . But Vejmelka would have been worth pursuing in the summer and is probably still worth pursuing today. 

Looking at this list, there’s maybe four or five goalies who would have been truly worth pursuing this offseason. And of that group, the Sabres would have needed to make an outsized free agent offer or swung for the fences in a trade. It underscores just how tight the goalie market was for a team with a prized prospect they don’t want to block, but expectations that pointed to the need for upgrades.