Over the past week on the podcast, Tyler and Chris each shared their respective views on how they would approach the offseason if they were sitting in Kevyn Adams’ chair. For anyone who doesn’t subscribe to the podcast, missed the episode or simply needed to see a more detailed breakdown of the moves we made, this post will cover both episodes of the podcast.
Each breakdown will highlight some of the key talking points we hit on the episode, list the transactions and display each respective lineup. Both episodes were recorded before the report that the Sabres are exploring the potential to buy out Jeff Skinner’s contract, so neither lineup reflects that move as we operated under the impression that the Sabres wouldn’t take on the dead cap.
Chris’ Version
The approach with this lineup was to reinforce the center position with someone who is a proven play driver, while developing a fourth line with a bit more jam than what the Sabres have had recently.
To start, Ukko-Pekka Luukonen gets the extension that he’ll be signing at some point this summer. A three year deal at $4.3 million per season is about a $1 million increase over Filip Gustavsson’s extension that was signed last summer. Gustavsson is a good comparable for UPL’s contract and that uptick in AAV seems like a fair year-over-year increase as the league’s salaries and cap increase.
Extending qualifying offers to Jacob Bryson, Henri Jokiharju and Peyton Krebs keeps the team’s three most valuable RFAs in house and in line for extensions if they line up.
Bryson gets a modest $1.1 million contract for the year to slot in as the team’s seventh defenseman.
The first deal on Chris’ offseason is shipping Peyton Krebs to San Jose for New Jersey’s second round pick. As the Sharks are seeking NHL talent to help insulate the likes of Will Smith and Macklin Celebrini – as evidenced by their acquisitions of Barclay Goodrow and Ty Dellandrea – a player like Krebs is a good fit. He’s 23, so he can grow along with San Jose’s build, he retains RFA rights but is not eligible for arbitration, giving the Sharks a fair bit of control over his extension The draft pick provides some additional flexibility in future trade negotiations, adding another piece of ammo that could push a deal over the finish line.
It doesn’t seem as if Krebs has an ideal fit in Buffalo, especially given the aspirations the Sabres have. Krebs has shown flashes of skill, but his inability to firmly establish himself higher in the lineup makes him a difficult player to continue to invest in given how high the expectations are in Buffalo this year.
As a quasi-replacement for Krebs, Chris sends Buffalo’s 2024 3rd round pick to the Flyers for Noah Cates. This was a tough trade to peg down as it’s difficult to determine what Cates’ true value is. It’s possible the Flyers feel he’s worth more than just a 3rd round pick. It’s likely that this negotiation would need to be massaged to reach the right price for Cates (maybe adding a later pick to give Philly a touch more value. Cates would initially step into a fourth center role but he’d have an opportunity to play higher in the lineup based on need and the flexibility of our next move.
The big swing of this GM mode is the acquisition of Jared McCann from Seattle. McCann comes east in exchange for Buffalo’s 2024 1st, Henri Jokiharju and Prokhor Poltapov. The thinking is that Jokiharju serves as a key addition to Seattle’s defense corps, giving the Kraken a young, NHL body. In this scenario, Jokiharju comes with his QO but not an extension. In the real world, it may be easier to extract the most value for him by getting an extension done since it would eliminate the potential for arbitration, but you can debate what the most efficient approach would be. Poltapov is a B prospect who has carved out a role on CSKA’s roster, though he hasn’t had a breakthrough offensive season. There’s still some value in Poltapov as a prospect, though he’s not a premier asset. Given McCann’s impact on Seattle, it’s likely that this price would need to increase. Perhaps Isak Rosen as opposed to Poltapov to give Seattle a higher talent asset, or even that second round pick acquired from San Jose. The first round pick speaks for itself, giving the Kraken a premium asset to build on their pick at eight and really stock their pipeline.
McCann would slot in behind Dylan Cozens, but could easily slide up the lineup at center or wing. For the purposes of this exercise, he’ll serve as the third center on this roster, giving our version of the Sabres a capable, play driving center with a touch more offense.
Free agency is always tricky business but Chris dips his toe into the market to round out the bottom of the lineup. The theme of the signings was to find players who can play a heavier style without sacrificing skill. William Carrier comes in on a one year contract at $2 million and Brandon Duhaime signs for one season at $1 million. This pair ought to give the Sabres the sort of sandpaper they’re seeking at the bottom of the lineup without sacrificing much skill or cap commitment.
On the backend, Brenden Dillon is the key addition on a two year pact with a $3 million hit. Dillon has strong underlying metrics and as a third pair partner for Connor Clifton, can provide the Sabres with a bit more jam, without tanking their ability to drive play. All three UFA signings come in around their projected contract values from Evolving Hockey. Perhaps the Sabres would need to chip in a bit more to convince each to come to this project as opposed to a true contender. A bit of variance could be applied to their cap hits based on that logic.
Overall, this roster comes in with a little over $2 million in cap space to play with down the line and with these moves, the depth chart looks like this:
| LW | C | RW |
| JJ Peterka | Tage Thompson | Alex Tuch |
| Zach Benson | Dylan Cozens | Jack Quinn |
| Jeff Skinner | Jared McCann | Jordan Greenway |
| William Carrier | Noah Cates | Brandon Duhaime |
| Lukas Rousek |
| LD | RD | G |
| Bowen Byram | Rasmus Dahlin | Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen |
| Mattias Samuelsson | Owen Power | Devon Levi |
| Brenden Dillon | Connor Clifton | |
| Jacob Bryson |
Transactions
Buffalo Receives Jared McCann
Seattle Receives Buffalo 2024 1st, Henri Jokiharju, Prokhor Poltapov
Buffalo Receives Noah Cates
Philadelphia Receives Buffalo 2024 3rd
Buffalo Receives New Jersey 2024 2nd
San Jose Receives Peyton Krebs
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen – 3 years – $4.3 million (RFA extension)
Jacob Bryson – 1 year – $1.1 million (RFA extension)
William Carrier – 1 year – $2 million (UFA)
Brandon Duhaime – 1 year – $1 million (UFA)
Brenden Dillon – 2 years – $3 million (UFA)
Tyler’s Version
Tyler’s approach didn’t differ much from how Chris tackled his GM duties. Tyler committed to reinforcing the center ice position and avoided any significant cap commitments to free agents. On the podcast, both Chris and Tyler identified Chris Dreidger as a potential signing for Rochester as an organizational third goalie, a funny coincidence as neither communicated their targets ahead of this effort.
Tyler’s initial work was devoted to Buffalo’s RFAs. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen gets a three year deal with a $5 million cap hit and Peyton Krebs is extended for two years and $1.5 million each season. Jacob Bryson gets $1.1 million on a one year deal and Henri Jokiharju comes in at $2.6 million for one year, a fair sight lower than he’d likely get in an open negotiation, but in line with his qualifying offer.
The most notable acquisition here is bringing in Anthony Cirelli from Tampa Bay. Going back the other way is Buffalo’s 2024 1st, a 2024 4th and a 2025 3rd round pick in addition to prospect Olivier Nadeau. One point of discussion on the podcast centered on Nadeau, who spent most of his season in the ECHL. It seems that the Lightning would come back and ask for a prospect of a higher caliber, something that we worked through on the podcast as Nadeau may not be quite enough to get this done.
Cirelli may be the best target for the Sabres this summer. He’s a quality middle six center with excellent underlying results. He’s a consistent point producer, though he won’t ever hit super high numbers, though you wouldn’t need him to in this sort of role. Tampa needs to clear space and providing them with some picks to backfill their pipeline after several years of deadline buying could create a good environment for this sort of deal.
Tyler stuck with centers, shipping out Isak Rosen and a 2024 2nd round pick to fetch Nic Roy from Vegas. Roy has been a favorite of The Instigator Podcast and this acquisition would give the Sabres a pair of quality centers to play in behind Cozens and Thompson. Both Roy and Cirelli can play up in the lineup if necessary, giving the Sabres an impressive amount of depth at the position.
To clear some space, Peyton Krebs gets packaged with a fourth round pick and sent to Washington for some help on the blueline. Trevor van Riemsdyk comes back the other way with the teams swapping third and fourth round picks. Van Riemsdyk offers the Sabres a right handed defenseman who could potentially play in the top four next to Owen Power. He has two years left on his deal, giving Buffalo a bit of runway and he’s been a steady presence throughout his career. He’s doesn’t play a super heavy style, but he’d be a quality plug in for Buffalo’s blueline.
Lastly, Jokiharju gets moved out to Utah for a draft pick. Specifically Florida’s 2nd round pick in 2024. This clears the deck on the blueline and gives some ammo for an additional trade or for further pipeline reinforcement.
On the free agent front, Jordan Martinook is the key signing for three years at $2.5 per. He adds the sort of identity the Sabres have talked about this spring and summer at a manageable hit. He’s been a strong contributor in Carolina the last few years and he’d make for a fine addition to the fourth line on this build.
Tyler’s work ate up a bit more cap than Chris’, leaving about $300,000 in space to play with. That’s a lot tighter to the cap than the Sabres have been in recent years, but with two notable additions up front, it makes sense that the cap would evaporate a bit more. Here is Tyler’s roster:
| LW | C | RW |
| JJ Peterka | Tage Thompson | Alex Tuch |
| Zach Benson | Dylan Cozens | Jack Quinn |
| Jeff Skinner | Anthony Cirelli | Jordan Greenway |
| Jordan Martinook | Nicolas Roy | Jiri Kulich |
| Lukas Rousek |
| LD | RD | G |
| Mattias Samuelsson | Rasmus Dahlin | Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen |
| Bowen Byram | Owen Power | Devon Levi |
| Connor Clifton | Trevor Van Riemsdyk | |
| Jacob Bryson |
Transactions
Buffalo receives Anthony Cirelli
Tampa Bay receives Buffalo 2024 1st, Buffalo 2024 4th, Buffalo 2025 3rd, Olivier Nadeau
Buffalo receives Nicolas Roy
Vegas receives Isak Rosen, Buffalo 2024 2nd
Buffalo receives Trevor Van Riemsdyk, Islanders 2024 3rd
Washington receives Peyton Krebs and Buffalo 2024 4th
Buffalo receives New Jersey 2024 2nd
Utah receives Henri Jokiharju
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen – 3 years – $5 million (RFA extension)
Peyon Krebs – 2 years – $1.5 million (RFA extension)
Jacob Bryson – 1 year – $1.1 million (RFA extension)
Henri Jokiharju – 1 year – $2.6 million (RFA extension)
Jordan Martinook – 3 years – $2.5 million (UFA)
Two in the Box 
