Deadline Breakdown: The larceny that was the Gaustad trade

It’s been a busy week, but this story represents the second portion of my deadline breakdown of the trades made by Darcy Regier on Monday’s trade deadline.

The Cody Hodgson acquisition was more electric than most trades usually made by Darcy Regier. However, when strictly evaluating return, I would say that poaching a first round pick in exchange for Paul Gaustad and a fourth is a massive victory for Regier.

Moving Gaustad was a necessary evil. He is a pending UFA and is allegedly asking for $3m per year on a new contract. Gaustad is barely worth the $2.3m cap hit he has now; let alone a raise to $3m. He has plenty of intangibles that are attractive to playoff teams, which is why I understand the interest he attracted at the deadline. However, I’m not sure a first round pick was equal to what he will bring to the Predators.

Gaustad has toughness, kills penalties and wins faceoffs. Those traits are going to be valuable if the Predators hope to advance deep in the playoffs. They also have the depth and talent to part with the first round pick they gave up. Of course, if they win the Cup there will be no questioning the trade on their end.

Replacing Gaustad will be difficult. There is an outside chance that he opts for a hometown discount and signs on July 1. If that scenario played out, Regier would have pulled an amazing feat; basically trading a fourth round pick for a first. Assuming Gaustad ends up elsewhere, there are plenty of other checking centers available on the free agent market. Since these players are so common, his loss is less impactful. I doubt Regier will struggle to replace Gaustad’s toughness and defensive prowess based on the impending UFA crop.

For the Sabres, the first round pick could be gold. The last time they picked twice in the first round they ended up with Tyler Myers and Tyler Ennis. Considering the Sabres are likely going to have a selection somewhere near the top-ten, a pair of first round talents is nothing to sneeze at. Buffalo also has two second round picks too. That means Darcy Regier has four selections in the first sixty picks.

Those four picks gives Regier the option to package them in a trade for a roster player. A hockey trade, if you will. There is plenty of chatter that the Sabres are attempting to move either Drew Stafford or Derek Roy, possibly even both. While these rumors aren’t necessarily confirmed, packaging one of those forwards with a first round selection could certainly bring a hefty return. Even using the first and one of their second round picks along with a player would be a very interesting trade offer for any team to consider. Continue reading

Deadline Breakdown: Hodgson deal benefits both Sabres and Canucks

Trade deadline acquisitions are often best evaluated farther down the line. Especially when you consider the player-for-picks culture of the NHL these days, scoring the return on Deadline Day trades is often an interesting task.

However, Darcy Regier pulled off quite a doozy on Monday afternoon that left him as the perceived deadline winner amongst a great many fans and experts. Buffalo’s acquisition of Cody Hodgson and Alexander Sulzer for Zack Kassian and Marc-Andre Gragnani was a true hockey trade that should address needs for both teams. Which team won the trade? That is a far more difficult question to address.

Frankly, this strikes me as a pretty even exchange of talent. Mainly because each team acquired a young, highly touted prospect who has traits desperately needed by the team acquiring the player. Vancouver gets a (sometimes) tough winger who can score goals and is willing to drop the gloves. They also get an upcoming RFA defenseman with strong offensive skills. The Canucks wanted to get some more grit and saw Kassian as the answer. If they can mentor him properly, I have little doubt his mean streak will come out.

On the Buffalo end, this trade did two things. First, it moved a defenseman who was stuck on the depth chart and that likely would have received another one-way tender in the offseason. Gragnani wasn’t contributing, it appeared that he was growing frustrated with the team and was blocking the pipeline for other young defensive prospects (McNabb, Brennan, Pysyk, JGL). By acquiring Sulzer, the Sabres get a player that has a bit more defensive responsibility and who has an expiring deal in July. Sulzer isn’t likely to be re-signed as there are far too many promising defensemen waiting to be promoted from Rochester.

Basically, the exchange of Gragnani for Sulzer is a proactive salary dump for Regier. He saves himself the need to tender Gragnani in the summer, while providing an adequate NHL defenseman for the remainder of this season. Now one of Buffalo’s prospects will be in line to step into the sixth or seventh defenseman role next year.

Acquiring Hodgson is obviously the biggest story for the Sabres. He is a skilled centerman with a ceiling of being a top-flight pivot for this team for years to come. His cap hit is minuscule up through next summer and is only expected to get better. Regier acknowledged that he has other players capable of providing the jam that Kassian brings to the table and Regier also likely realized that he didn’t have any players with the skill and potential that Hodgson brings to the center position.

The acquisition of Hodgson makes the Sabres a better team now and down the line. Last night’s debut left Hodgson pointless, but you could see the creativity and offense in his game. Hodgson’s arrival not only gives Lindy Ruff another viable option at center. It also signifies a systematic shift to the “core” of the team. Continue reading

Deadline Primer: What direction should the Sabres take?

Tomorrow could be a make or break trade deadline for Darcy Regier. I wouldn’t go so far as to say it will determine his future with the Sabres; but if he falters at the deadline, there could be ramifications in the summer.

Buffalo’s stance for deadline day has yet to be truly determined. Even by taking three of four points this weekend, and five of six for the week, the Sabres are still clawing to gain ground in the playoff race. There have been some bright spots this season and even as of late. However, there still seems to be far too many question marks surrounding the roster.

Derek Roy seems to be a prime candidate to be traded tomorrow.

Considering that, there should be one stance that Reiger should be taking; retooling his roster to improve the glaring weaknesses that have been revealed this season. While that is the approach that 60% of the NHL’s general managers will take, but the Sabres shouldn’t necessarily be labeled as a buyer/seller this season.

Regier’s stance should have been unwavering ever since December when his team began their slide towards the bottom of the conference. It was obvious that Buffalo needed to get tougher and better down the middle. Their secondary scoring had disappeared, but it wasn’t for lack of personnel. There are players on the roster who appear to be in need of a change of scenery and there are other players who just need to be sold for some return (see: UFAs).

With the Sabres still within shouting distance of a playoff spot, they haven’t dug themselves in as a buyer or seller, necessarily. However, Dave Pagnotta on The Fourth Period radio raised some excellent questions. He first made strong points by saying a number of teams need to realize that their roster is flawed and change is necessary. This was also pumped by Pierre LeBrun who said a handful of teams need to stop looking at the standings and start looking in the mirror. I would certainly count the Sabres among that group.

Another interesting point made by Pagnotta and Dennis Bernstein was that the Sabres shouldn’t be waiting any longer to make their call on Drew Stafford or Derek Roy. They made very cogent points that it is obviously time for change and a message needs to be sent to the locker room that a shift in attitude is necessary. It was actually a terrific show, you should get XM just for NHL Home Ice.

I’m in total agreement that the Sabres should be in a position to sell assets, or at least start the process of recycling talent to upgrade the roster. What is unfortunate is that Buffalo’s success this week will likely keep Darcy Regier from shipping off his tradeable pieces – namely Roy, Stafford and even Paul Gaustad. I expect to see a conservative approach from Regier in the hope that his team is indeed capable of finding a playoff position. Continue reading