With free agency crawling along, Eric and I got together to talk about the first week, what the Sabres did and what they will may finish off with in free agency. We discuss the Derek Roy/Steve Ott trade and chat a bit about this week’s Development Camp.
Sabres Free Agency
Can scoring depth be found on UFA market?
With free agency nearly a week old, the Sabres are still in a position of need when it comes to filling holes left after last season.
Darcy Regier has been quiet in the early going of the free agency period, acquiring more grit and toughness for the Sabres’ bottom six. His only NHL signing has been one for the fringe ($600K for John Scott) and he did make a fairly significant trade when he sent Derek Roy to Dallas in exchange for Steve Ott and Adam Pardy.
Since the Sabres have nine defensemen under contract – ten if you’re counting T.J. Brennan and Brayden McNabb – and a glaring need for additional offensive depth, preferably at center. The trade market is where Regier is hoping to patch the rest of the holes in his ship, but it seems as if a stagnant free agent market is now slowing the trade market.
Buffalo has been tied to just about any player rumored to be on the block since the Stanley Cup Final. Whether it be Bobby Ryan or Jordan Staal, people have easily drawn conclusions between the Sabres, their need for talent up front and the current trade market. However, the only trade that has been made so far was a balanced hockey trade that brought the Sabres more pugnacity. Yet, they remain very much in the market for help in the goal scoring department and at center. The two needs may or may not be mutually exclusive.
The Sabres are currently in a situation where they may have an 18-year old rookie (Mikhail Grigorenko) and two 22-year olds (Tyler Ennis and Cody Hodgson) on their opening night roster. Grigorenko’s status is still up in the air, but the other two are sure locks. Behind them lies a pair of empty spots on the depth chart. Filling those spots is becoming increasingly difficult. However, there are a few names on the open market who could potentially end up with a contract in Buffalo for next season.
As for finding scoring depth, the free agent market for centers is rather devoid of that trait. However, there are plenty of wingers available who can give the Sabres some additional scoring depth on wing.
If my previous idea of flipping Thomas Vanek to right wing doesn’t fly, which is more than likely, the Sabres will probably want to snag a right winger to settle in behind Jason Pominville and Drew Stafford on the depth chart. Continue reading
Vanek at right wing could provide balance
With development camp set to open next week and training camp around the corner, the Buffalo Sabres roster still remains in a state of flux.
The acquisition of Steve Ott and Adam Pardy stripped another center off a roster that was already in need of an upgrade at the position. Although the trade further depleted the Sabres down the middle, it wasn’t as if Darcy Regier was treating getting a number one center with low priority.
In all fairness, acquiring Ott was a great hockey trade. Despite having a need for center depth, Roy was an expendable piece for an organization with an abundance of undersized forwards. With Nathan Gerbe, Tyler Ennis and even Dan Catenacci under contract, the Sabre won’t miss another small forward. While Roy’s departure does create a vacancy, it provides the infusion of size and grit the Sabres had been searching for.
Losing out on an offensive center is not a good situation for a team that struggled to score in 2011-12, Ott does provide the Sabres with a flexible option. While the goal to acquire a true center is still the ultimate goal for the Sabres, it won’t be the easiest feat to accomplish. In addition to their deep defensive corps, the Sabres are overloaded on the left side at forward.
Ott is one of those left wingers, but he is capable of winning faceoffs and I fully expect to see him on the ice for defensive zone draws on penalty kills and at even strength. If absolutely necessary, Ott could fill a role as Buffalo’s third line center; unlike Ville Leino, he is capable of playing the position.
The true solution, in my opinion, is to keep Ott on the wing to take advantage of his offensive skillset. Yes, he is capable of producing points. The key lies with Thomas Vanek. Continue reading
Patience a virtue on slow UFA Day
For months writers, hockey insiders and fans had talked about the thin free agent market for 2012. Apparently all of that was forgotten during one of the slowest openings to free agency in recent memory.
There were 59 total signings yesterday with a number of players working out a deal to stay with their former team. None of the big names inked their name to a contract, even the second-tier UFAs held off on making a decision. There were a few theories tossed around as to why players like Parise, Suter, Semin, Jokinen and others held off on signing. Some blame the expected trades of Bobby Ryan and Rick Nash, some point to others waiting for the dam to finally break. Some just blame the thin market.
The reason for the dull showing yesterday probably lies in a number of different areas. The most obvious is that the top free agents are now waiting to make their final decision until they have heard and weighed every offer. NHL free agency is becoming less of a one day free-for-all and more of a two-three day process of discussion, offers and decision making. The Ryan and Nash trades likely have something to do with some of the waiting, but I suspect the shallow pool and the pending decisions for Parise and Suter likely have a lot to do with why next to nothing happened yesterday.
Looking down the list of transactions there isn’t one true winner. The Canucks got the biggest name, so far; the Senators made a trade and Anaheim tried to sign every defenseman on the market. Nothing of any profound impact occurred and I am of the belief that Parise and Suter will indeed set the firestorm for the rest of the league.
Those teams losing out on Suter will be screwed because Matt Carle is the only arguable top four defenseman left. Those teams hoping for Parise will either turn to Alex Semin or scramble for footing in the Nash and Ryan sweepstakes. Either way, there will be more action once today’s signings occur.
As for the decision by Darcy Regier to hold out and only make one marginal signing, I like it. Regier wasn’t quick to the trigger on overpaying for marginal talent, I’m certain he put out offers to those he wished to pursue and I think it is a safe bet that Uncle Terry pushed for a serious pitch to the Parise Camp. Continue reading
Sabres get tough with Scott
The Buffalo Sabres got big and nasty with their only signing on July 1. The Sabres agreed to terms with John Scott on a one-year contract reportedly worth $600K.
With the rest of the Northeast Division investing in tough, gritty players, the Sabres were looking awfully thin in the pugnacity department as the day wore on. After another year in which people questioned Buffalo’s grit, Scott should help fill the void.
Buffalo was silent for nearly the entire day and it seemed as if they were falling further behind in the toughness department as compared to their biggest rivals. Montreal re-signed Travis Moen last week and then threw a wheelbarrow of money at Brandon Prust. The Maple Leafs added Jay McClement and every just seems to be keeping up with the big, bad Bruins.
Scott is capable of playing wing or defense, although his contributions at each position will be severely limited. He will be better suited as a fourth line winger who sees a maximum of eight minutes each night that he dresses.
The decision to sign Scott is wise, don’t think that this is a waste. First, he isn’t impacting the cap one bit. Secondly, he is a player that is difficult to play against and that is precisely what Darcy Regier has been looking to add.
Don’t expect Scott to be an every night player. He will mix well with Cody McCormick, Pat Kaleta and Corey Tropp. Buffalo would still be wise to find one more capable fourth line player so that Matt Ellis doesn’t need to be counted on each night. Since Ellis’ contract switches to a two-way deal this year, he is an affordable choice for Rochester.
It would seem as if Scott has been brought in to add a massive dose of toughness and that every shift grit that the Sabres sorely lacked on a near nightly basis last season. He will most certainly dress against Boston, Montreal and at least half of the games against Ottawa and Toronto. The Rangers (his former team) boast plenty of goons, so he will likely see a few games there. I’d count on him for 40 games, more depending on injuries.
Don’t count on Scott to be Darcy Regier’s only move for the rest of the summer. Understand his patience with an ultra-thin market and the fact that he did get a player who can fill two roles if absolutely necessary.
Like it or not, the rest of free agency will be a wait and see operation for the Sabres and their fans.
Ranking the 2012 UFA class: Defense and Goalies
My final group of free agents to analyze will be combined between defense and goaltenders. While there is an impressive number of defensemen hitting the market, there are only a few goaltenders available to be signed.
Despite being deep, I feel the defensive market only has a bit of cream which has risen to the top. As for the goalies, there isn’t much of anything to write home about from top to bottom. If you wish to read part one or two of this set of posts, click here for centers and here for wingers.
Defensemen
Ryan Suter – Age: 27 – 11-12 team: Nashville – 11-12 Cap Hit: $3,500,000
While Zach Parise is also going to be among the biggest fish landed this weekend, Suter is probably the most sought after commodity on the market this year. He is going to be due a raise in the $7M category and could possibly creep above $8M depending on who is bidding. He is an all-around talent who can be an anchor for any team’s blue line for a number of years.
Justin Schultz – Age: 21 – 11-12 team: Wisconsin (NCAA) – 11-12 Cap Hit: none
A rare occurrence, Schultz did not come to terms with Anaheim and will be a very young unrestricted free agent. Reports entering the weekend indicate that he is down to only a few teams, but he will still be sure to hit for an impressive pay day. There are certainly some question marks with no professional experience behind him, but he is NHL-ready and will be a mobile threat right away.
Matt Carle – Age: 27 – 11-12 team: Philadelphia – 11-12 Cap Hit: $3,437,500
Carle is still be courted by the Flyers and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him re-sign in Philly. The acquisition of Luke Schenn likely spells the end for either Carle or Pavel Kubina, but the Flyers seem to be high on Carle. I’ve never thought much of him when he hasn’t played with Chris Pronger, but that’s just me. Still, he is offensively gifted and has plenty to offer at a young age. If Philly doesn’t lock him up, he will get an impressive raise. Continue reading
Ranking the 2012 UFA class: Wingers
With unrestricted free agency opening this weekend, I am putting together a master list of the top free agents available on the market this offseason. Part one of my rankings covered the thin crop of centers hitting the market this weekend. Part two will cover a slightly deeper group of players, wings. I combined left and right wingers into this ranking, which will extend the total number beyond ten. Once again, the players are ranked on how popular they will be amongst potential suitors on July 1. Each player will get a short summary and those I see the Sabres targeting will get a little extra attention.
Zach Parise – LW – Age: 27 – 11-12 team: New Jersey – 11-12 Cap Hit: $6,000,000
Together with Ryan Suter, Parise forms the crown jewels of the 2012 UFA class. There are reports that he is attempting to work out a deal with the Devils, but I think he is smart enough to see what the other 29 teams may have to offer. An elite talent, Parise is going to command at least 47.5M on an annual basis with his new contract and may even break the $8M barrier. If the Sabres are to make an honest run at him, Tyler Ennis and Pat Kaleta will need to accept their qualifying offers and not reach for a more lucrative extension. Buffalo’s cap situation may prohibit them from chasing Parise, but he is the type of talent that will instantly make his new team better.
Alexander Semin – RW – Age: 28 – 11-12 team: Washington – 11-12 Cap Hit: $6,700,000
A mercurial talent, Semin could possibly be the most talented player in the league if he gave a full effort each night. However, there are more reports of his shortcomings than his successes. Semin will likely get an offer from a team looking for a shot in the arm in terms of goal scoring. Some have pegged the Sabres as a suitor but I fear that some of his more “typical Russian” characteristics wouldn’t work well under Lindy Ruff, in the Sabres room and alongside their newest toy, Mikhail Grigorenko.
Shane Doan – RW – Age: 35 – 11-12 team: Phoenix – 11-12 Cap Hit: $4,550,000
When the news broke the Shane Doan would indeed be testing the free agent market, things got a bit more interesting for teams looking to find the ever so valuable intangibles. Depending on where he signs, Doan will round out a top six or provide an above-average solution on a team’s third line. Since he plays such a great two-way game, there will be plenty of teams knocking down his door. Based on what he brings to the table, I’d almost be more interested in the Sabres taking a stab at him instead of Parise. The Sabres could use more help on the right side and a $5M hit is more manageable than a $8M hit.
Guillamme Latandresse – LW – Age: 25 – 11-12 team: Minnesota – 11-12 Cap Hit: $2,500,000
Latandresse’s injury concerns are probably why he didn’t get a qualifying offer from Minnesota. He is probably going to command at least $3M, if not more. An unexpected addition to the UFA crop, Latandresse will draw plenty of interest in a thin market. I like the idea of Latandresse if he is paired with the right center. However, his recent injury history may scare some teams off. If he was a right winger I would think the Sabres would have some interest. Continue reading
Ranking the 2012 UFA class: Centers
Unrestricted free agency opens on Sunday afternoon with a class of free agents widely considered to be shallow in terms of overall talent. However, there is a small group of elite players at the top of this year’s class that will surely break the bank before any fireworks are lit on July 4.
This is the first of a three-part list ranking the available top 10-15 free agents, by position, based on how popular they will be amongst teams on July 1. Each player will have a short summary beside their names and those I see being a possible target for the Sabres will get a little more attention. Part one will cover the centers.
Olli Jokinen – Age: 33 – 11-12 team: Calgary – 11-12 Cap Hit: $3,000,000
Aside from goaltenders, center is the thinnest position in this year’s class. Jokinen is probably the most offensively gifted center in the class, but is probably looking at limited options. Depending on what teams are looking for, he could be due a little competition. He won’t be back in Calgary, which means the market just got one more skilled addition.
Jason Arnott – Age: 37 – 11-12 team: St. Louis – 11-12 Cap Hit: $2,875,000
Arnott had a respectable season with St. Louis last year, filling an offensive role without being a go-to guy at center. At 37 his intangibles and experience probably offer more than he will over 82 games, but you could still count on 15-20 goals in the right situation. Arnott could be a potential target for Buffalo to bring a bit more experience to a young locker room while filling a role on the third line behind Cody Hodgson and Tyler Ennis. I could see him being counted on for a solid two-way game if he signs in Buffalo.
Paul Gaustad – Age: 30 – 11-12 team: Buffalo/Nashville – 11-12 Cap Hit: $2,300,000
Told you this was a weak position. Gaustad became a hot commodity in Buffalo because girls think he is cute. Then he started blocking shots and winning faceoffs and other teams took notice. Those hoping he comes back to Buffalo may not want to hold their breath. While he would be a good fit back on the third line, I doubt he takes a hometown discount to return to the Sabres. Gaustad is probably looking at some offers in the 2.85-3 range in terms of a cap hit, that is a little too rich for what he brings to the table. Continue reading
Don’t call it GM for a Day
On the eve of the 2011 NHL Draft, Darcy Regier spurred a deal with the Calgary Flames to acquire Robyn Regehr. Not only was it a trade that no Sabres fan would have seen under the former ownership, it was a trade none were expecting to see.
Regier’s action at last year’s draft set off a month-long string of moves geared towards making the Sabres a Cup contender. Tonight’s draft presents Regier with a very similar opportunity.
This isn’t supposed to be a GM for a Day post. It will certainly be similar to one, but it is more a genesis of the Pegula Puzzle posts I did last year.
Considering that Regier has never been one to show his hand with regard to free agents or trades makes the likelihood of acquiring Jordan Staal or Bobby Ryan somewhat unlikely. In fact, there have been plenty who have noted that Regier hasn’t pulled the trigger on any trade that had been widely speculated, rather a trade that few were aware of. That much was proved last year with the acquisition of Cody Hodgson and Regehr.
I fully expect Regier to make at least one trade this weekend. I also think there is the potential to acquire an impact player. However, I’m not in the position to speculate who he may chase. After all, this isn’t Xbox.
The idea of Bobby Ryan is nothing short of tantalizing. Buffalo may even have the pieces available to get him away from the Ducks. Some reports on Ryan’s availability mention Anaheim’s desire to acquire a number of pieces to help construct their roster. I would venture a guess that any package would require a first round pick and at least one roster player and one prospect. Perhaps two roster players.
If you’re spitballing, a combination of Derek Roy, Jordan Leopold or Andrej Sekera and a pick might be close, but still short on talent. The Sabres would probably need a top prospect to swing the deal. Continue reading
A closer look at the Sabres’ depth
With the Buffalo Sabres re-signing Matt Ellis, Jhonas Enroth, Dennis Persson Andrej Sekera and Travis Turnbull this week, the opening day roster is all but set. While there will be tweaks as training camp comes and goes, the main body of the roster is pretty easy to piece together right now.
The Sabres have a boatload of depth at this point and a look in the prospect cupboard reveals even more. I was linked in a post about the Sabres depth being mistaken for a logjam. While I certainly see portions of the roster that are clogged I did not mean to portray the point of view that bodies need to go and go fast. Darcy Regier and Lindy Ruff need to capitalize on the depth at their disposal. In two seasons this could be a very different team and that depth will be the reason why.
I divided the team up by position in a relative depth chart. Anyone under a professional contract for this season was accounted for (ex. Shawn Szydlowski). I also included Marc-Andre Gragnani even though he hasn’t officially signed. Of note; the defense isn’t in pairs, it is just split into a relative depth setting to account for who I expect to be on the opening night roster, and the order of call ups. Additionally, the forwards are offset because there are more right wingers than left wingers or centers at this point. Continue reading
Two in the Box 