Tim Murray’s most recent interview on WGR highlighted the general manager’s interest in Halo along with his thoughts on the 21st pick. He mentioned Russian goaltender Ilya Samsonov as a potential target with the 21st pick while also mentioning his interest in moving up in the draft.
Tyler and Chris chat about the best course of action with the 21st pick while also touching on the NHL Combine and other future NHL events that the Sabres are looking to land.
Eric and I spend a little time during intermission at the 2015 BMO CHL/NHL Top Prospects game to chat about this guy Connor McDavid and some of the other draft eligible players on the ice in St. Catharines.
With the 2014 NHL Draft just a few days away, the Sabres will be making the second highest selection in franchise history that should serve as a major piece of their current rebuild. While the Sabres’ 30th place finish this year ensured them a top-two selection at the draft, the real prize sits atop the 2015 NHL Draft when Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel are set to be picked first and second (not necessarily in that order).
While Tim Murray hasn’t come out and said it, the Sabres aren’t expected to compete for much more than the right to pick one of those two elite talents as yet another building block on the way to a Stanley Cup. Murray and the Sabres are in a good position for 2015 as they hold three picks in the first round, giving them that much more of a chance to score the first pick. While St. Louis’ pick (acquired as part of the Ryan Miller trade) won’t have any sort of effect on Buffalo’s lottery chances, it’s possible that the Islanders’ pick does provide some additional support. Ideally the Islanders would suffer through an ugly season and give the Sabres a massive boost towards snagging first overall. The worst case scenario is that they sneak into the playoffs and give the Sabres two picks in the bottom 15 selections of the round.
There won’t be any change made to the NHL Draft Lottery for next season, so the 30th place club will have a 25% chance to get the first pick with the odds decreasing with each subsequent finisher. So the Sabres could wind up in the exact position they’re in now. No matter how teams are posturing today doesn’t prevent five clubs from finishing between 25 and 30 in the standings and holding the top odds for a very valuable lottery.
I’ve taken the time to run through each club and give my opinion on the current trend they’re following (up, down or neutral), if they own their pick next season and the threat they are to wind up in the lottery. The lottery threat scale goes from one-to-five, with one being the most likely a team is to wind up at the bottom of the league and the top of the draft. Each team’s trend is more subjective as many teams were considered neutral despite having very different circumstances.
Buffalo’s own ranks would give them a downward (perhaps neutral) trend with a level one threat as a major player in the lottery. The Sabres will certainly make some moves this offseason but I don’t foresee anything on the horizon that will drastically turn the team’s fortunes around. The Sabres will certainly be a player for the first pick next year, although the odds certainly weigh against them landing McDavid. Continue reading
With the World Cup officially kicked off and taking over the country’s sporting conscience for the next three or four weeks (or, at least until the US is eliminated) the NHL Draft is now less than two weeks away and rapidly approaching. The Sabres, as everyone knows by now, hold the 2nd overall selection and a pair of 2nd round selections. With news that Tim Murray is looking to acquire another 1st round pick the team should have ample opportunity to find young talent to help speed up the rebuild.
Rightly so, the 2nd overall selection is garnering the most chatter amongst fans and media alike. While people have every right to be optimistic about the prospect of grabbing a top end talent with the 2nd selection, many members of the MSM and fan base think that drafting 2nd is a lay up, and are under the impression that whoever the Sabres tab as their selection (and defacto new face of the franchise) will single-handedly lead the team out of the abyss and one day have their number hanging next to Gare, LaFontaine, and the French Connection.
While I’m all for optimism, I think it’s best to rein in expectations just a bit. This is not to say I don’t think the team will end up with a very talented player, in fact I’m very confident that Tim Murray and his staff will make the right choice at number two. That being said every draft slot has its fair share of Patrik Stefans and Brian Lawtons; nothing is guaranteed.
It is widely known that the NHL Draft more resembles the MLB Draft rather than the NFL or NBA when it comes to draft picks actually having impactful careers, and that average career numbers decrease significantly with each pick and round. The drop is obviously not as precipitous from pick to pick in the first round when compared to picks in the second round and beyond, but it is still apparent.
It is expected that either Sam Reinhart or Sam Bennett will be Buffalo Sabres come June 27, so let’s look at forwards selected in the top five. When looking at the top five picks in the draft dating back to 1970, forwards that were selected first overall had an average career of 840 games and put up just under 800 points. Compare that with forwards selected 5th overall; those players averaged 619 games and 430 points, a career that is over three season shorter, on average, than those picked just four spots higher. Those who went 2nd overall played an average of 755 games and amassed 616 points. Continue reading
Tim Murray dropped a bombshell at the GM meetings when he told Pierre LeBrun that he wants another first round selection in the upcoming draft and that he’s willing to take on salary in order to accomplish that goal.
Perhaps it wasn’t a bombshell so much as an indication that Murray plans on being busy ahead of and through this month’s draft. Here’s his quote from LeBrun’s column:
“I can’t imagine I would trade the second overall pick,” Murray said. “I’d like to get a couple of more first-round picks and I have those three third-rounders to us. I certainly know you can’t trade a second for a first, but you might take some money back in a deal to do that and I do have to get to the [cap] floor. There are different ways to get to the floor so I’m exploring all that.”
The recent debate over the course of action the Sabres should take in the first round of this year’s draft has added to the trend of blue chip prospects entering the NHL as 18-year olds. It also would appear that development of NHL prospects is slowly changing the yearly event from a futures draft to an event that produces players that are prepared to enter the league almost immediately.
With the salary cap pressing out those players with mid-level salaries, young, ultra-talented prospects have begun to be fast tracked into the NHL. The Philadelphia Flyers’ use of Claude Giroux, James van Riemsdyk and Sean Couturier makes for a great example of this. Even the Sabres have seen Luke Adam, Tyler Ennis and Tyler Myers make a quick jump to the show.
Because of the trend away from a two or three-year development to a track closer to 18 months (or shorter), picks in the top five have become that much more valuable as compared to years past. In fact, dating back to the Crosby draft, Erik Johnson is the only first overall pick not to enter the league as an 18-year old. With Nail Yakupov, Alex Galchenyuk and Ryan Murray all lurking atop this year’s draft, there is room for more NHL ready talent to be selected.
Yakupov and Murray are almost shoo-ins to step into the NHL next season. Meanwhile, Galchenyuk, Matt Dumba and Mikhail Grigorenko are also good bets to make a run after their first NHL training camp.
While Darcy Regier all but shut the book on any possibility of trading up in the draft, I remain a proponent of making a run for one of the picks that would yield the young center. I see Glachenyuk as the number one center the Sabres so desperately need and likely won’t find on the open trade market. However, Regier seems to be content with keeping his four picks and stocking the cupboards. Based on the trend of the NHL draft, the case could be made for trading up or standing pat. Continue reading
Two in the Box 