NHL

Conjecture department: Could a lockout benefit the Sabres?

Chris Ostrander1 Comment

Might this lockout be a good thing? Not for the game or fans, mind you; but for the season.

When I look at the Sabres past few seasons, there has been a significant lull in performance at some point. Whether that came at the beginning of the year (2010-11) or in the middle of the year (2011-12), the team has suffered from a drop off that ultimately cost the team wins and position in the standings.

Obviously last year’s mid-winter slump was centered around injuries and horrible play, but fatigue and the grind of the season likely had something to do with it. Since it seems as if a lockout is inevitable at this point, could it be somewhat beneficial for the Sabres to play a shortened schedule?

Perhaps a shortened season would allow for Buffalo’s offensive players to stay fresh over the entire course of the season. The same would go for the goaltending and defense. In fact, shortening the schedule could be massively beneficial for Ryan Miller, whose workload would potentially go from 60+ games to 40+ games. That is, of course, if Lindy Ruff utilizes Jhonas Enroth properly.

There are a few permutations here that serve as counterpoints to this train of thought. First, a shorter schedule would also cause the league to condense games into a smaller package in hopes of keeping the 2012-13 season to an adequate length. This will cause more back-to-back matchups and could potentially create more wear and tear on the players.

Secondly, every team will be playing a shorter schedule. Because of that, every team will reap the same benefits from trimming the schedule down from 82 games. It’s not as if the Sabres are tailor-made to sprint as opposed to finishing a marathon or gaining any sort of added advantage compared to the rest of the league. Continue reading →

What makes you elite?

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The word elite gets tossed around a lot by hockey fans and members of the media. It seems to be one of those terms that is easy to use to qualify a player’s talent level when discussing career potential or, more often, their trade value.

But is there a way to draw the line on elite players? Is there a specific number that represents the cut off between elite and very good players? Or perhaps the term is so arbitrary that it is nothing more than an adjective that provides a simple way to quantify certain players.

Is Rick Nash elite? Prove it.

What is interesting about determining “elite” players is that the qualifications seem to change every season. Not to mention the fact that those who fall into the “elite” category change on a regular basis.

There is a group of players at every position in the NHL who deserve to be called elite, or superstars. However, with this term being used so loosely, I wonder if the opinion of elite status is a bit skewed.

There is no doubt that players like Shea Weber, Sidney Crosby and Henrik Lundqvist are elite. Whether you’re talking centers, defensemen, wings or goaltenders, there is a magic number of true elite players and those who fall into other categories. It is my opinion that this is not only a sliding scale on a yearly basis but based on position as well.

Perhaps the league’s elite goaltenders fall somewhere in the 7-10 range, whereas an elite defensemen could potentially be found anywhere from the 15-20 range depending on how the players were ordered and, of course, depending on who is doing the ranking.

The issue is that there is no way to truly draw a line between “elite” and “not elite”. The gray area leaves room for debate (which is fun) but also makes the term rather arbitrary. Continue reading →

History should speed up CBA talks

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Some people never learn. Of course, when you’re talking millions and millions of dollars, it is hard to figure out any sort of logic.

The last time hockey fans were facing labor talks between the owners and Players Association, a lockout was nearly a certainty. What resulted was a lost season, a crap TV contract, fan apprehension and a complete loss of respect from a sports network capable of pumping any event full of propaganda.

Maybe losing any sort of foothold on ESPN’ airwaves was a minor setback, but “the worldwide leader” is nothing more than a televised tabloid capable of steering sports fans interest towards a singular message if they so choose. Regardless, the lost season in 2004-05 was a massive setback for the NHL and caused the necessity for a whole lot of rebuilding.

Only seven years later we are almost back to where we started. Salaries have ballooned (thanks to skyrocketing revenues) and the owners are getting over their heads when it comes to paying out cash. With just over a month to go, it appears as if the worst may be on the horizon, another lockout. Continue reading →

Patience a virtue on slow UFA Day

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For months writers, hockey insiders and fans had talked about the thin free agent market for 2012. Apparently all of that was forgotten during one of the slowest openings to free agency in recent memory.

There were 59 total signings yesterday with a number of players working out a deal to stay with their former team. None of the big names inked their name to a contract, even the second-tier UFAs held off on making a decision. There were a few theories tossed around as to why players like Parise, Suter, Semin, Jokinen and others held off on signing. Some blame the expected trades of Bobby Ryan and Rick Nash, some point to others waiting for the dam to finally break. Some just blame the thin market.

The biggest signing (money) of the 2012 Free Agency period, thus far.

The reason for the dull showing yesterday probably lies in a number of different areas. The most obvious is that the top free agents are now waiting to make their final decision until they have heard and weighed every offer. NHL free agency is becoming less of a one day free-for-all and more of a two-three day process of discussion, offers and decision making. The Ryan and Nash trades likely have something to do with some of the waiting, but I suspect the shallow pool and the pending decisions for Parise and Suter likely have a lot to do with why next to nothing happened yesterday.

Looking down the list of transactions there isn’t one true winner. The Canucks got the biggest name, so far; the Senators made a trade and Anaheim tried to sign every defenseman on the market. Nothing of any profound impact occurred and I am of the belief that Parise and Suter will indeed set the firestorm for the rest of the league.

Those teams losing out on Suter will be screwed because Matt Carle is the only arguable top four defenseman left. Those teams hoping for Parise will either turn to Alex Semin or scramble for footing in the Nash and Ryan sweepstakes. Either way, there will be more action once today’s signings occur.

As for the decision by Darcy Regier to hold out and only make one marginal signing, I like it. Regier wasn’t quick to the trigger on overpaying for marginal talent, I’m certain he put out offers to those he wished to pursue and I think it is a safe bet that Uncle Terry pushed for a serious pitch to the Parise Camp. Continue reading →

Ranking the 2012 UFA class: Wingers

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With unrestricted free agency opening this weekend, I am putting together a master list of the top free agents available on the market this offseason. Part one of my rankings covered the thin crop of centers hitting the market this weekend. Part two will cover a slightly deeper group of players, wings. I combined left and right wingers into this ranking, which will extend the total number beyond ten. Once again, the players are ranked on how popular they will be amongst potential suitors on July 1. Each player will get a short summary and those I see the Sabres targeting will get a little extra attention.

Zach Parise – LW – Age: 27 – 11-12 team: New Jersey – 11-12 Cap Hit: $6,000,000

Together with Ryan Suter, Parise forms the crown jewels of the 2012 UFA class. There are reports that he is attempting to work out a deal with the Devils, but I think he is smart enough to see what the other 29 teams may have to offer. An elite talent, Parise is going to command at least 47.5M on an annual basis with his new contract and may even break the $8M barrier. If the Sabres are to make an honest run at him, Tyler Ennis and Pat Kaleta will need to accept their qualifying offers and not reach for a more lucrative extension. Buffalo’s cap situation may prohibit them from chasing Parise, but he is the type of talent that will instantly make his new team better.

Alexander Semin – RW – Age: 28 – 11-12 team: Washington – 11-12 Cap Hit: $6,700,000

A mercurial talent, Semin could possibly be the most talented player in the league if he gave a full effort each night. However, there are more reports of his shortcomings than his successes. Semin will likely get an offer from a team looking for a shot in the arm in terms of goal scoring. Some have pegged the Sabres as a suitor but I fear that some of his more “typical Russian” characteristics wouldn’t work well under Lindy Ruff, in the Sabres room and alongside their newest toy, Mikhail Grigorenko.

Shane Doan – RW – Age: 35 – 11-12 team: Phoenix – 11-12 Cap Hit: $4,550,000

When the news broke the Shane Doan would indeed be testing the free agent market, things got a bit more interesting for teams looking to find the ever so valuable intangibles. Depending on where he signs, Doan will round out a top six or provide an above-average solution on a team’s third line. Since he plays such a great two-way game, there will be plenty of teams knocking down his door. Based on what he brings to the table, I’d almost be more interested in the Sabres taking a stab at him instead of Parise. The Sabres could use more help on the right side and a $5M hit is more manageable than a $8M hit.

Guillamme Latandresse – LW – Age: 25 – 11-12 team: Minnesota – 11-12 Cap Hit: $2,500,000

Latandresse’s injury concerns are probably why he didn’t get a qualifying offer from Minnesota. He is probably going to command at least $3M, if not more. An unexpected addition to the UFA crop, Latandresse will draw plenty of interest in a thin market. I like the idea of Latandresse if he is paired with the right center. However, his recent injury history may scare some teams off. If he was a right winger I would think the Sabres would have some interest. Continue reading →

Ranking the 2012 UFA class: Centers

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Unrestricted free agency opens on Sunday afternoon with a class of free agents widely considered to be shallow in terms of overall talent. However, there is a small group of elite players at the top of this year’s class that will surely break the bank before any fireworks are lit on July 4.

This is the first of a three-part list ranking the available top 10-15 free agents, by position, based on how popular they will be amongst teams on July 1. Each player will have a short summary beside their names and those I see being a possible target for the Sabres will get a little more attention. Part one will cover the centers.

Olli Jokinen – Age: 33 – 11-12 team: Calgary – 11-12 Cap Hit: $3,000,000

Aside from goaltenders, center is the thinnest position in this year’s class. Jokinen is probably the most offensively gifted center in the class, but is probably looking at limited options. Depending on what teams are looking for, he could be due a little competition. He won’t be back in Calgary, which means the market just got one more skilled addition.

Jason Arnott – Age: 37 – 11-12 team: St. Louis – 11-12 Cap Hit: $2,875,000

Arnott had a respectable season with St. Louis last year, filling an offensive role without being a go-to guy at center. At 37 his intangibles and experience probably offer more than he will over 82 games, but you could still count on 15-20 goals in the right situation. Arnott could be a potential target for Buffalo to bring a bit more experience to a young locker room while filling a role on the third line behind Cody Hodgson and Tyler Ennis. I could see him being counted on for a solid two-way game if he signs in Buffalo.

Paul Gaustad – Age: 30 – 11-12 team: Buffalo/Nashville – 11-12 Cap Hit: $2,300,000

Told you this was a weak position. Gaustad became a hot commodity in Buffalo because girls think he is cute. Then he started blocking shots and winning faceoffs and other teams took notice. Those hoping he comes back to Buffalo may not want to hold their breath. While he would be a good fit back on the third line, I doubt he takes a hometown discount to return to the Sabres. Gaustad is probably looking at some offers in the 2.85-3 range in terms of a cap hit, that is a little too rich for what he brings to the table. Continue reading →

Projecting the 2012 NHL Awards

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Now that the NHL offseason is in full-swing, the NHL Awards will act as a jumping off point for the major events that will occur between Wednesday and July 1.

This year’s show boasts an impressive line up of presenters that should certainly help shed a bit more limelight on the league. While the musical act leaves something to be desired, I would anticipate the show to carry more entertainment value in the third year of the new format.

With the Art Ross, Rocket Richard, William Jennings and other statistically determined awards already decided, there will be 12 total awards handed out in Vegas. That is including the Messier Leadership Award, GM of the Year and the NHL Foundation Award.

Here is a rundown of who I think will win each award: Continue reading →

Last game of the year, can’t hold anything back now

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If there is one common trend that I constantly hear Sabres fans complain about, it is that the Sabres are mentally weak and don’t show up for big games. Whether it is a team complaint, a criticism of Ryan Miller or Thomas Vanek or even Lindy Ruff; fans (and some media members) like to point to mental fragility and the lack of that big game mentality with this roster.

Now, I am not debating the mental toughness – or lack thereof – of the Buffalo Sabres’ roster. In fact, it is something I have felt has been an issue since Chris Drury departed in 2007. The lack of mental toughness is surely a culprit for a number of losses over the past few seasons and the early playoff exits that have plagued the team recently.

However, it is the concept of showing up for big games or when it matters that most seem to misunderstand. The reason this is misunderstood is that every game is a big game. Every shift and every save is equally important. In fact, the only “must win” games are those when you’re on the verge of elimination or victory (see: playoffs). Otherwise, every other game is of equal importance. (Even the playoff example is flawed because one player could be the reason a series was extended to six or seven games.)

This is probably a difficult concept to grasp, especially for those who like to point at poor performances of many players as evidence for their assumed shortcomings. The fact of the matter is that there are truly only a handful of games that could be considered more or less important than any other game during the year. Aside from the games that come down to the wire at the end of the year (and playoff games), each game carries the same level of importance. There is a reason every game is worth two points.

The difference of a game’s perceived importance is due to how much a team has succeeded or struggled during the year. Tonight’s game six is the biggest game of the year for the Devils, just as it is for the Kings. However, tonight’s game wouldn’t be happening if the Devils hadn’t won on Saturday, their last biggest game of the year.

I’d like to tie in the simplest example to prove my point. Since goaltenders are easily the most scrutinized players in hockey, they often are easily targeted as showing up or disappearing in big games. To connect that to Sabres Nation would be the opinion that Ryan Miller doesn’t show up in big games. The fact of the matter is that you always need your goaltender, star player and team to show up on a consistent basis. So, while the evidence is ultimately flawed, the argument is valid. Continue reading →

NHL awards should improve with actual celebrity presenters

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Maybe the NHL was listening to me after all. The better money is on the fact that the league was already aware that they could leverage their growing impact on the celebrity community to draw some attention to the sport.

Who is better looking? You can decide at the NHL Awards.

The 2012 NHL Awards show will be rife with celebrity presenters this year and hopefully getting more A (and B) list celebrities will prevent things like this from happening. The announcement came out on June 5 and includes an impressive list of presenters.

Notice how the NHL describes Andrews as a sports broadcaster? Apparently the league doesn’t have much respect for ESPN either. Bristol can go shove it.

Aside from maybe Vartan, each of these guys are pretty well known actors. Andrews has been loving all over the playoffs on Twitter and I wait for the day that she leaves ESPN to take over between the glass on NBC’s hockey coverage. Connolly is a well documented Islanders fan, Perry and Monteith have been seen at many a game this spring and Vince Vaughn is a Blackhawks super fan.

The NHL also said that Will Arnett, Tracy Morgan and Kevin Smith will be making appearances during the night. I’m assuming that Smith will probably drop a few [Gretzky’s] and that the inclusion of Arnett and Morgan has to do with their day jobs on NBC shows. Perhaps Arnett can explain why his show appeared on network TV over game four.

Your run-of-the-mill presenters will include PJ stock, Barry Melrose, Andi Petrillo, Pierre McGuire and Eddie Olczyk. Let’s just assume that Olczyk will telestrate his presentation while McGuire will tell us all about the junior and high school career of the award winner.

The good news is that Kathryn Tappen will be appearing as well in what one can only hope will be a joint hottie broadcaster presentation with Erin Andrews. Maybe the NHL could find a brunette to toss in as well to create a Golden Oreo of hotness. Continue reading →

NHL needs more network respect

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Old people, an inevitably shitty sitcom and a two episodes of whichever Law & Order spinoff airs on Wednesdays. That is what will be appearing, nation-wide, on NBC tomorrow evening. Meanwhile, on NBC Sports Network, you can potentially watch the Los Angeles Kings end a franchise-long Stanley Cup drought with a series sweep of the New Jersey Devils.

Who wouldn’t want to watch an old people version of Punk’d?

In case, you haven’t heard, ratings for this year’s Cup Finals are down compared to the last few seasons. There are plenty of determining factors here. New Jersey has fallen behind fast, the Kings are a tough draw for anyone East of the Mississippi and the Devils are also far behind that of a team like Boston in terms of market share.  There has also been the arguments made for the lack of star power in the series. While that isn’t inaccurate, I don’t think it is a primary reason for the lack of attention. Think about it, the Bruins and Canucks don’t have any stars that register on a national level in the US either.While there isn’t one thing to blame, you could certainly point to the lack of access for those who do wish to watch the series. Starting on a weekday and then transitioning to the weekend opened a big game between games one and two and with games three and four being shown on NBC Sports Network, there isn’t much room for improvement.

One thing that isn’t different is the impact being made in the participating cities. While New Jersey has dwindled with their team, LA is building more steam as the Cup gets closer to their grasp. My argument that individual success in big markets is drumming up interest in the sport hasn’t changed. It is just the impact nationally that hasn’t improved this season. Perhaps if the NBC family realized that bumping a potential deciding game to a cable network only a fraction of the country has would be a major mistake. What is particularly pathetic is that the Finals will be pre-empted on the main network by yet another silly lineup of network shows.

After American Ninja Warrior and Grimm kept their slot on Monday, Off Their Rockers, Up All Night and a pair of Law & Order episodes will remain on NBC tomorrow evening while the potential clinching game of the Stanley Cup will be played on cable. It is no secret that the NHL still has a ways to go in order to reclaim part of the national spotlight, but things like this aren’t helping. Continue reading →