Tune in for a final run-through of where the Sabres will go in this weekend’s draft along with a breakdown of how the Robin Lehner trade could work out for the Sabres.
NHL Draft
Mid-Round Picks Worth More than Meets the Eye
With the NHL Draft finally getting underway tomorrow evening, the value of draft picks is usually a topic of discussion around this time of year. Every media outlet, whether it be Sportsnet or TSN, has taken a stab at trying to determine the true value of a given draft pick. The measuring stick most used to figure out if a draft pick was successful is NHL games played. While I also implement the games played factor, I’ve opted to go in a bit of a different direction. Instead of trying to quantify the value of a given pick (or range of picks) I focused on the value of a pick in regards to the trade market.
I took the basic stats (games played, goals, assists, points) of every player who dressed in at least one NHL game this season. I also included if and where in the draft every player was selected, and how he was acquired by his current club, with the help of HockeyDB, Hockey Reference, and various team websites.
This is only one season of data so the results of the data do not reflect any decades long recipe for success or anything, but it does paint a pretty nice picture of where the league is today and where it may be headed. Continue reading
The Instigator Podcast 4.5 – 2ITB Mock Draft Spectacular
We get together to discuss Tim Murray’s pre-draft press conference along with going through our own picks for 2015 NHL Draft.
2ITB Special: 2015 NHL Mock Draft
Guest Post by Matt Kopnak
Ed Note: The NHL Draft is fast approaching and we all know Jack Eichel will be officially named a Buffalo Sabre on June 26. The rest of the first round has a fair share of intrigue surrounding it and Matt Kopnak (follow him @mattkopnak) took some time to hammer out a mock draft for 2ITB. He has a few interesting picks sprinkled in and this will serve as a great precursor to the Mock Draft Instigator Podcast that will be coming in the very near future.
Enjoy Matt’s mock draft and stay tuned for the upcoming Instigator Mock Draft Podcast Spectacular. Continue reading
Looking back at the Draft: 2009
If 2007 and 2008 offered the richest discussion regarding this practice, I’d say that 2009 (and 2010) offer the most ambiguity. It certainly speaks more to the 2010 draft than 2009, but there are a number of players still working through their respective team’s development ladder from these two drafts. That makes things difficult as the value of those players hasn’t really been established yet.
So bear that in mind as there are a few names that may seem out of place given their current impact on the league. Also feel free to share thoughts on picks that you don’t see as accurate. These posts are meant to spur discussion, not serve as a gospel. The 2009 draft will serve as the final one I examine as the 2010 draft is still fresh enough to have a great many picks still in limbo. Continue reading
Looking back at the Draft: 2008
As I stated in my write-up of the 2007 Draft, this area of the decade sits in a good spot for this practice. A lot of the names in this draft are really starting to come out of their shells in terms of development and it opens the door for some interesting conversations on who should go where.
1. Tampa Bay Lightning: Steven Stamkos
He was the first pick for a reason and I don’t see any reason why Tampa would change their minds.
2. Los Angeles Kings: Drew Doughty
My has this pick worked out for the Kings. Doughty could easily be considered the most valuable player in this draft. While he didn’t overtake Stamkos in my book, there’s no one close to unseating him at two.
3. Atlanta/Winnipeg: Alex Pietrangelo (STL, 4) – Original Pick: Zach Bogosian
Piertangelo has turned into a phenomenal two-way defender who eats minutes in massive chunks. He can face down with a team’s top threats while still contributing on the offensive end.
4. St. Louis Blues: Erik Karlsson (OTT, 15) – Original Pick: Alex Pietrangelo
Karlsson isn’t the player that Pietrangelo is. He is, however, a dynamic offensive threat. While the Blues aren’t starved for scoring, he would be a terrific addition to their roster.
5. Toronto Maple Leafs (from NYI): Jordan Eberle (EDM, 22) – Original Pick: Luke Schenn
The Leafs have managed to build out a solid first line (center not withstanding) but still could use stability in the middle of their lineup. Eberle would serve as a dangerous piece in Toronto’s middle six. Continue reading
Looking back at the Draft: 2007
This is part four in a series of posts looking back at the NHL Draft between 2004 and 2009
This might be my favorite draft of the six that I worked through. There seemed to be a few more big moves than the others I looked through. There seemed to be a number of seriously talented players lurking in the middle of this draft which made slotting them in properly a challenge in many cases.
The quality likely relates to the draft class all being in their mid-20s and at or near their peak in terms of talent. The talent pool of picks beyond the first round was also a bit deeper than other drafts which made the exercise more interesting.
Building a winner takes more than just top picks
As the final two weeks tick away until the Sabres make the first pick in the Tim Murray era, Tyler and I decided to team up to offer an all-encompassing analysis of how the most recent Cup winning teams were constructed. We started with the 2008-09 Pittsburgh Penguins and went straight through this year’s Kings and Rangers rosters.
We found a number of different trends and traits on each of these teams. One trait they all shared was the possession of at least one high pick (fifth or higher) who was either drafted by the team or became a priority acquisition at one point or another. However, just as important as these players were to their respective teams, proper acquisitions via trades or free agency served as an equally important trait for each and every one of these teams.
Our goal was to offer a comprehensive analysis of each of these teams to illustrate exactly where the Sabres still need to improve their roster outside of simply winning the Draft Lottery.
Chris: The current state of the Sabres has inspired a lot of debate regarding rebuilding and the best course of action to take. One particularly incendiary stance taken by Jeremy White is that it doesn’t matter who your GM is so long as you’re picking at the top of the draft. While I’m sure his point was that anyone can pick first since you’re likely to land a surefire stud with a top-three selection, the comment has turned into a rallying cry both for White and his critics.
I know we both disagree with his premise given that hockey teams are comprised of 23 players, not one or two. Without giving away the entire argument in two paragraphs, I feel it’s important for anyone to understand that shaping a championship team takes a hell of a lot more than simply picking first a few times. It’s a perfect storm of drafting, trades, free agent signings and cap management. Comparing the state of the Sabres to other teams who have enjoyed a turnaround after picking high – Colorado comes to mind as a great example – it’s safe to say that Aaron Ekblad or one of the Sams aren’t going to turn things around by themselves, no?
Tyler: Whoever Tim Murray opts to take at 2nd overall at the end of the month will not come in, put the team on his back, and carry them to a top three finish (and automatic playoff spot) in the Atlantic Division. I’d venture to say that even if Murray were to acquire another top five pick in June (as Mike Harrington believes they should) they still would find themselves outside of the playoff picture. That is not an indictment of the skill of any of the top prospects, but of the current roster. The Sabres have a multitude of holes to fill, and while one or two of Bennett, Reinhart, or Ekblad would no doubt but the team on the right track there’s still a long way to go. Continue reading
Looking back at the Draft: 2005
This is part two of my series of re-drafting the first round of the NHL Draft between 2004 and 2009.
One thing I noticed as I was working on this project was how quickly the bottom of the round thins out. I never had much trouble lining up candidates who had been selected in the second round and beyond, but filling the holes left by the first round misses led the bottom of each first round to be tricky to round out. Luckily there were a healthy number of mid-round picks to choose from in 2005 as the draft itself was very deep.
This draft, particularly at the bottom, became more of a need-based selection process as opposed to simply listing the best players. However, having a happy medium of re-ranking and actually selecting players for need was my goal going into this.
Looking back at the Draft: 2004
This will be the first in a series of posts that revisits the first round of the NHL Draft. I did something similar with previous Sabres drafts for Buffalo Wins last year and NHL Network Radio on SiriusXM has been doing something along these lines the last few weeks.
I wanted to look back on the first round of recent drafts and to figure out which players worked out, who turned out to be a sleeper and who wound up as a bust. So I took each draft between 2004 and 2009 and re-selected the first round based on the players from the entire draft.
I evaluated and drafted by following a handful of guidelines. The overall goal was to identify where some prospects would be picked if the draft could be reconducted today. I attempted to strike a balance of simply reordering the top 30 players from each draft and making some selections based on who would best aid certain teams.
I didn’t consider each and every team’s draft strategy since I can’t speak to the draft strategy of each team in any particular draft. However, if there was a player that would address a very specific need, goaltenders being the best example, that was taken into consideration. I also looked at each draft independent of those in the preceding or following years. A player’s original draft selection didn’t factor into their new position in this practice.
The first draft I chose to reevaluate was 2004. This draft was headlined by Alex Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin. As you’ll notice, I will list the team’s new pick first followed by the pick they made originally with a brief explanation for most, if not all of the choices. I will also list where the new pick was originally selected.
Two in the Box 