Buffalo Sabres

Buffalo Sabres coverage. Related to the Sabres, their prospects and the minors.

Who poses a threat to Mission McDavid in 2015?

Chris Ostrander1 Comment

With the 2014 NHL Draft just a few days away, the Sabres will be making the second highest selection in franchise history that should serve as a major piece of their current rebuild. While the Sabres’ 30th place finish this year ensured them a top-two selection at the draft, the real prize sits atop the 2015 NHL Draft when Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel are set to be picked first and second (not necessarily in that order).

While Tim Murray hasn’t come out and said it, the Sabres aren’t expected to compete for much more than the right to pick one of those two elite talents as yet another building block on the way to a Stanley Cup. Murray and the Sabres are in a good position for 2015 as they hold three picks in the first round, giving them that much more of a chance to score the first pick. While St. Louis’ pick (acquired as part of the Ryan Miller trade) won’t have any sort of effect on Buffalo’s lottery chances, it’s possible that the Islanders’ pick does provide some additional support. Ideally the Islanders would suffer through an ugly season and give the Sabres a massive boost towards snagging first overall. The worst case scenario is that they sneak into the playoffs and give the Sabres two picks in the bottom 15 selections of the round.

There won’t be any change made to the NHL Draft Lottery for next season, so the 30th place club will have a 25% chance to get the first pick with the odds decreasing with each subsequent finisher. So the Sabres could wind up in the exact position they’re in now. No matter how teams are posturing today doesn’t prevent five clubs from finishing between 25 and 30 in the standings and holding the top odds for a very valuable lottery.

I’ve taken the time to run through each club and give my opinion on the current trend they’re following (up, down or neutral), if they own their pick next season and the threat they are to wind up in the lottery. The lottery threat scale goes from one-to-five, with one being the most likely a team is to wind up at the bottom of the league and the top of the draft. Each team’s trend is more subjective as many teams were considered neutral despite having very different circumstances.

Buffalo’s own ranks would give them a downward (perhaps neutral) trend with a level one threat as a major player in the lottery. The Sabres will certainly make some moves this offseason but I don’t foresee anything on the horizon that will drastically turn the team’s fortunes around. The Sabres will certainly be a player for the first pick next year, although the odds certainly weigh against them landing McDavid. Continue reading →

Looking back at the Draft: 2009

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If 2007 and 2008 offered the richest discussion regarding this practice, I’d say that 2009 (and 2010) offer the most ambiguity. It certainly speaks more to the 2010 draft than 2009, but there are a number of players still working through their respective team’s development ladder from these two drafts. That makes things difficult as the value of those players hasn’t really been established yet.

So bear that in mind as there are a few names that may seem out of place given their current impact on the league. Also feel free to share thoughts on picks that you don’t see as accurate. These posts are meant to spur discussion, not serve as a gospel. The 2009 draft will serve as the final one I examine as the 2010 draft is still fresh enough to have a great many picks still in limbo. Continue reading →

Looking back at the Draft: 2008

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As I stated in my write-up of the 2007 Draft, this area of the decade sits in a good spot for this practice. A lot of the names in this draft are really starting to come out of their shells in terms of development and it opens the door for some interesting conversations on who should go where.

1. Tampa Bay Lightning: Steven Stamkos

He was the first pick for a reason and I don’t see any reason why Tampa would change their minds.

2. Los Angeles Kings: Drew Doughty

My has this pick worked out for the Kings. Doughty could easily be considered the most valuable player in this draft. While he didn’t overtake Stamkos in my book, there’s no one close to unseating him at two.

3. Atlanta/Winnipeg: Alex Pietrangelo (STL, 4) – Original Pick: Zach Bogosian

Piertangelo has turned into a phenomenal two-way defender who eats minutes in massive chunks. He can face down with a team’s top threats while still contributing on the offensive end.

4. St. Louis Blues: Erik Karlsson (OTT, 15) – Original Pick: Alex Pietrangelo

Karlsson isn’t the player that Pietrangelo is. He is, however, a dynamic offensive threat. While the Blues aren’t starved for scoring, he would be a terrific addition to their roster.

5. Toronto Maple Leafs (from NYI): Jordan Eberle (EDM, 22) – Original Pick: Luke Schenn

The Leafs have managed to build out a solid first line (center not withstanding) but still could use stability in the middle of their lineup. Eberle would serve as a dangerous piece in Toronto’s middle six. Continue reading →

What to Expect from Sabres’ Potential Picks

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With the World Cup officially kicked off and taking over the country’s sporting conscience for the next three or four weeks (or, at least until the US is eliminated) the NHL Draft is now less than two weeks away and rapidly approaching. The Sabres, as everyone knows by now, hold the 2nd overall selection and a pair of 2nd round selections. With news that Tim Murray is looking to acquire another 1st round pick the team should have ample opportunity to find young talent to help speed up the rebuild.

Rightly so, the 2nd overall selection is garnering the most chatter amongst fans and media alike. While people have every right to be optimistic about the prospect of grabbing a top end talent with the 2nd selection, many members of the MSM and fan base think that drafting 2nd is a lay up, and are under the impression that whoever the Sabres tab as their selection (and defacto new face of the franchise) will single-handedly lead the team out of the abyss and one day have their number hanging next to Gare, LaFontaine, and the French Connection.

While I’m all for optimism, I think it’s best to rein in expectations just a bit. This is not to say I don’t think the team will end up with a very talented player, in fact I’m very confident that Tim Murray and his staff will make the right choice at number two. That being said every draft slot has its fair share of Patrik Stefans and Brian Lawtons; nothing is guaranteed.

It is widely known that the NHL Draft more resembles the MLB Draft rather than the NFL or NBA when it comes to draft picks actually having impactful careers, and that average career numbers decrease significantly with each pick and round. The drop is obviously not as precipitous from pick to pick in the first round when compared to picks in the second round and beyond, but it is still apparent.

Sam Bennett could be a Sabre in 11 days

It is expected that either Sam Reinhart or Sam Bennett will be Buffalo Sabres come June 27, so let’s look at forwards selected in the top five. When looking at the top five picks in the draft dating back to 1970, forwards that were selected first overall had an average career of 840 games and put up just under 800 points. Compare that with forwards selected 5th overall; those players averaged 619 games and 430 points, a career that is over three season shorter, on average, than those picked just four spots higher. Those who went 2nd overall played an average of 755 games and amassed 616 points. Continue reading →

Looking back at the Draft: 2007

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This is part four in a series of posts looking back at the NHL Draft between 2004 and 2009

 

This might be my favorite draft of the six that I worked through. There seemed to be a few more big moves than the others I looked through. There seemed to be a number of seriously talented players lurking in the middle of this draft which made slotting them in properly a challenge in many cases.

The quality likely relates to the draft class all being in their mid-20s and at or near their peak in terms of talent. The talent pool of picks beyond the first round was also a bit deeper than other drafts which made the exercise more interesting.

Continue reading →

Murray will have few partners in his quest to get back into the first round

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Tim Murray dropped a bombshell at the GM meetings when he told Pierre LeBrun that he wants another first round selection in the upcoming draft and that he’s willing to take on salary in order to accomplish that goal.

Perhaps it wasn’t a bombshell so much as an indication that Murray plans on being busy ahead of and through this month’s draft. Here’s his quote from LeBrun’s column:

“I can’t imagine I would trade the second overall pick,” Murray said. “I’d like to get a couple of more first-round picks and I have those three third-rounders to us. I certainly know you can’t trade a second for a first, but you might take some money back in a deal to do that and I do have to get to the [cap] floor. There are different ways to get to the floor so I’m exploring all that.”

Continue reading →

Building a winner takes more than just top picks

Chris Ostrander5 Comments

As the final two weeks tick away until the Sabres make the first pick in the Tim Murray era, Tyler and I decided to team up to offer an all-encompassing analysis of how the most recent Cup winning teams were constructed. We started with the 2008-09 Pittsburgh Penguins and went straight through this year’s Kings and Rangers rosters.

We found a number of different trends and traits on each of these teams. One trait they all shared was the possession of at least one high pick (fifth or higher) who was either drafted by the team or became a priority acquisition at one point or another. However, just as important as these players were to their respective teams, proper acquisitions via trades or free agency served as an equally important trait for each and every one of these teams.

Anze Kopitar: picked 11th overall in 2005.

Our goal was to offer a comprehensive analysis of each of these teams to illustrate exactly where the Sabres still need to improve their roster outside of simply winning the Draft Lottery.

 

Chris: The current state of the Sabres has inspired a lot of debate regarding rebuilding and the best course of action to take. One particularly incendiary stance taken by Jeremy White is that it doesn’t matter who your GM is so long as you’re picking at the top of the draft. While I’m sure his point was that anyone can pick first since you’re likely to land a surefire stud with a top-three selection, the comment has turned into a rallying cry both for White and his critics.

I know we both disagree with his premise given that hockey teams are comprised of 23 players, not one or two. Without giving away the entire argument in two paragraphs, I feel it’s important for anyone to understand that shaping a championship team takes a hell of a lot more than simply picking first a few times. It’s a perfect storm of drafting, trades, free agent signings and cap management. Comparing the state of the Sabres to other teams who have enjoyed a turnaround after picking high – Colorado comes to mind as a great example – it’s safe to say that Aaron Ekblad or one of the Sams aren’t going to turn things around by themselves, no?

Tyler: Whoever Tim Murray opts to take at 2nd overall at the end of the month will not come in, put the team on his back, and carry them to a top three finish (and automatic playoff spot) in the Atlantic Division. I’d venture to say that even if Murray were to acquire another top five pick in June (as Mike Harrington believes they should) they still would find themselves outside of the playoff picture. That is not an indictment of the skill of any of the top prospects, but of the current roster. The Sabres have a multitude of holes to fill, and while one or two of Bennett, Reinhart, or Ekblad would no doubt but the team on the right track there’s still a long way to go. Continue reading →

It’s time for the Sabres to run an equipment sale

Chris Ostrander1 Comment

If you mosey on down to the Sabres Store at any point during the regular season you’re bound to find a decent selection of game used sticks. Sometimes you can even find brand new sticks that haven’t been cut down, let alone taped up. The sticks cost about $100 the last time I checked, which happens to be a sweet price for a piece of pro stock equipment. Factor in that these sticks retail for over $250 in most cases and the deal really can’t be beat.

Unfortunately this is about as far as the Sabres are willing to go when it comes to selling their overstocked equipment. In the early weeks of the summer the selection is a bit deeper – with socks, gloves and pants available for purchase – but usually that stock runs dry quite quickly.

That brings me to my main point. Why is it that the Sabres don’t run an equipment sale each year? Continue reading →

Looking back at the Draft: 2005

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This is part two of my series of re-drafting the first round of the NHL Draft between 2004 and 2009.

One thing I noticed as I was working on this project was how quickly the bottom of the round thins out. I never had much trouble lining up candidates who had been selected in the second round and beyond, but filling the holes left by the first round misses led the bottom of each first round to be tricky to round out. Luckily there were a healthy number of mid-round picks to choose from in 2005 as the draft itself was very deep.

This draft, particularly at the bottom, became more of a need-based selection process as opposed to simply listing the best players. However, having a happy medium of re-ranking and actually selecting players for need was my goal going into this.

Continue reading →

Pick your Sabres starting lineup

Chris Ostrander3 Comments

I saw a similar graphic with a list of some of hockey’s greatest names earlier today. The instructions were the same; you had $20 to pick the starting six players you would want based on the dollar amounts next to each name. So I thought it would be fun to do this with the Sabres. Go ahead and leave your picks in the comments or on Twitter after you pick your group. top6