Author: Chris Ostrander

Breaking down the rumored sites for the Bills next home

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It’s the elephant in the room when it comes to discussing the future of the Bills in Buffalo. Finding a solution to where the Bills will be playing their games for the foreseeable future has presented a myriad of questions, proposals and debates throughout Western New York and it doesn’t appear we’re collectively closer to a final answer than before Ralph Wilson passed away.

The Buffalo News has been the most active in covering various plans and potential owners involved in the saga. They’ve done everything from profiling potential owners to scouting potential stadium sites. Outside of the News’ coverage, it appears as if there is a small handful of locations that have made the unofficial shortlist when it comes to the Bills home turf.

Keeping the team located in Orchard Park has been a popular topic along with spots in and around the Perry Projects, the Outer Harbor and even Niagara Falls. That group, to me, appears to be the most popular at this point in time. Other spots like Scott Congel’s land in West Seneca, Batavia and others have come up, but it seems as if they’re all extreme long shots.

What’s interesting is how the stadium project will factor into the mix with potential owners as well. Tom Golisano, Donald Trump or perhaps even Jeff Gundlach may have the funds to make a competitive bid on the franchise, but do they have the scratch to finance enough of a stadium to limit the need for PSLs – something that’s widely accepted as a non-starter given WNY’s economy? Terry Pegula, on the other hand, has the funds available to go off and buy the team and build the stadium without even searching for public assistance considering his vast wealth. In fact, you could argue that the $1.75 billion he made in his recent land sale is nearly enough to cover the costs associated with purchasing the team and building a new home in one fell swoop.

The various scenarios that can and will play out surrounding the potential owners is a lengthy conversation in and of itself. Placing the primary focus on what seems to work best in terms of a stadium without taking into account future influences from ownership is the point of this post. I’ve been on record voicing my support for a great number of options. At one point I saw the Outer Harbor as a simple solution but I’ve since backed off from that theory. I certainly support the idea of saving the public (and owner) any major costs by putting a serious renovation effort into the Ralph but I’d also love to see a perfect storm converge to see a new stadium built downtown. Continue reading →

Haul from Vanek trade continues to grow

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Tim Murray may have inherited a clunker of a roster from Darcy Regier, but the organization still had good bones despite the kamikaze job Regier did on the roster prior to his departure. Continue reading →

How can the Sabres hit the cap floor

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There’s been quite a hubbub over Tim Murray having the capability to get the Sabres to the cap floor during free agency. It’s a concept that Murray has expressed his annoyance with publicly. Frankly, the worry that has been expressed over getting Buffalo above the league-mandated $51 million cap floor seems a bit overblown. And when the GM whose proven that he operates on a very even, analytical keel with all of his team’s roster moves has such little worry over a topic, there probably shouldn’t be much concern given by fans and media alike.

Buffalo currently has 37 NHL contracts on their books – not counting contracts like that of Linus Ullmark which haven’t started yet – with just over $38 million committed to the cap according to CapGeek. The work required to get to the cap floor will be markedly easier once Murray works out the contracts for Tyler Ennis and Marcus Foligno. Assuming Ennis gets just north of what Cody Hodgson received, he’ll be looking at roughly $4.5 million per year. Foligno might wind up in the neighborhood of $2.5 million on a bridge deal. That covers $7 million in space right off the bat.

Murray has not only insisted that the Sabres will not only spend in free agency, but work to find veterans who are capable of providing quality leadership to Buffalo’s rising prospects. Steve Ott and Matt Moulson have received the most press and attention due to their time spent in Buffalo but Brian Gionta has also been mentioned as an early target for the Sabres as free agency is set to open. Since I’m not in Buffalo’s front office I don’t know who exactly the Sabres will focus on. However, I do know that a pair of contracts valued at $5.5 and $3.5 million on two forwards (or another combination that reaches $9m in cap spending) brings the Sabres to $47 million towards the cap. Continue reading →

Who poses a threat to Mission McDavid in 2015?

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With the 2014 NHL Draft just a few days away, the Sabres will be making the second highest selection in franchise history that should serve as a major piece of their current rebuild. While the Sabres’ 30th place finish this year ensured them a top-two selection at the draft, the real prize sits atop the 2015 NHL Draft when Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel are set to be picked first and second (not necessarily in that order).

While Tim Murray hasn’t come out and said it, the Sabres aren’t expected to compete for much more than the right to pick one of those two elite talents as yet another building block on the way to a Stanley Cup. Murray and the Sabres are in a good position for 2015 as they hold three picks in the first round, giving them that much more of a chance to score the first pick. While St. Louis’ pick (acquired as part of the Ryan Miller trade) won’t have any sort of effect on Buffalo’s lottery chances, it’s possible that the Islanders’ pick does provide some additional support. Ideally the Islanders would suffer through an ugly season and give the Sabres a massive boost towards snagging first overall. The worst case scenario is that they sneak into the playoffs and give the Sabres two picks in the bottom 15 selections of the round.

There won’t be any change made to the NHL Draft Lottery for next season, so the 30th place club will have a 25% chance to get the first pick with the odds decreasing with each subsequent finisher. So the Sabres could wind up in the exact position they’re in now. No matter how teams are posturing today doesn’t prevent five clubs from finishing between 25 and 30 in the standings and holding the top odds for a very valuable lottery.

I’ve taken the time to run through each club and give my opinion on the current trend they’re following (up, down or neutral), if they own their pick next season and the threat they are to wind up in the lottery. The lottery threat scale goes from one-to-five, with one being the most likely a team is to wind up at the bottom of the league and the top of the draft. Each team’s trend is more subjective as many teams were considered neutral despite having very different circumstances.

Buffalo’s own ranks would give them a downward (perhaps neutral) trend with a level one threat as a major player in the lottery. The Sabres will certainly make some moves this offseason but I don’t foresee anything on the horizon that will drastically turn the team’s fortunes around. The Sabres will certainly be a player for the first pick next year, although the odds certainly weigh against them landing McDavid. Continue reading →

Upgrades along the line set Bills up for offensive success

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You might say that everything has been laid at EJ Manuel’s feet for the upcoming season, but that’s what everyone is saying. Mainly because it’s the truth.

The message was made pretty clear at the draft with the trade up to select Sammy Watkins and the additional investment in offensive players like Bryce Brown, Mike Williams and even Anthony Dixon. Albeit, Dixon is more of a special teams addition than anything else. Where Whaley really invested this offseason was along the line. While adding Watkins and Williams adds even more depth and talent to the receiving corps, the line could see major changes take hold. Since the Bills are boosting their offensive line-up, expect that oddsmakers will surely consider them as a contenders with official NFL betting lines moving in their favor this season, having fans and fantasy pickers taking notice.

Between the signing of Chris Williams, the expected return of a healthy Chris Hairston and draft picks Cyrus Kouandjio, Cyril Richardson and Seantrel Henderson, the Bills two-deep could undergo some serious changes. Continue reading →

Looking back at the Draft: 2009

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If 2007 and 2008 offered the richest discussion regarding this practice, I’d say that 2009 (and 2010) offer the most ambiguity. It certainly speaks more to the 2010 draft than 2009, but there are a number of players still working through their respective team’s development ladder from these two drafts. That makes things difficult as the value of those players hasn’t really been established yet.

So bear that in mind as there are a few names that may seem out of place given their current impact on the league. Also feel free to share thoughts on picks that you don’t see as accurate. These posts are meant to spur discussion, not serve as a gospel. The 2009 draft will serve as the final one I examine as the 2010 draft is still fresh enough to have a great many picks still in limbo. Continue reading →

Looking back at the Draft: 2008

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As I stated in my write-up of the 2007 Draft, this area of the decade sits in a good spot for this practice. A lot of the names in this draft are really starting to come out of their shells in terms of development and it opens the door for some interesting conversations on who should go where.

1. Tampa Bay Lightning: Steven Stamkos

He was the first pick for a reason and I don’t see any reason why Tampa would change their minds.

2. Los Angeles Kings: Drew Doughty

My has this pick worked out for the Kings. Doughty could easily be considered the most valuable player in this draft. While he didn’t overtake Stamkos in my book, there’s no one close to unseating him at two.

3. Atlanta/Winnipeg: Alex Pietrangelo (STL, 4) – Original Pick: Zach Bogosian

Piertangelo has turned into a phenomenal two-way defender who eats minutes in massive chunks. He can face down with a team’s top threats while still contributing on the offensive end.

4. St. Louis Blues: Erik Karlsson (OTT, 15) – Original Pick: Alex Pietrangelo

Karlsson isn’t the player that Pietrangelo is. He is, however, a dynamic offensive threat. While the Blues aren’t starved for scoring, he would be a terrific addition to their roster.

5. Toronto Maple Leafs (from NYI): Jordan Eberle (EDM, 22) – Original Pick: Luke Schenn

The Leafs have managed to build out a solid first line (center not withstanding) but still could use stability in the middle of their lineup. Eberle would serve as a dangerous piece in Toronto’s middle six. Continue reading →

Looking back at the Draft: 2007

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This is part four in a series of posts looking back at the NHL Draft between 2004 and 2009

 

This might be my favorite draft of the six that I worked through. There seemed to be a few more big moves than the others I looked through. There seemed to be a number of seriously talented players lurking in the middle of this draft which made slotting them in properly a challenge in many cases.

The quality likely relates to the draft class all being in their mid-20s and at or near their peak in terms of talent. The talent pool of picks beyond the first round was also a bit deeper than other drafts which made the exercise more interesting.

Continue reading →

Murray will have few partners in his quest to get back into the first round

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Tim Murray dropped a bombshell at the GM meetings when he told Pierre LeBrun that he wants another first round selection in the upcoming draft and that he’s willing to take on salary in order to accomplish that goal.

Perhaps it wasn’t a bombshell so much as an indication that Murray plans on being busy ahead of and through this month’s draft. Here’s his quote from LeBrun’s column:

“I can’t imagine I would trade the second overall pick,” Murray said. “I’d like to get a couple of more first-round picks and I have those three third-rounders to us. I certainly know you can’t trade a second for a first, but you might take some money back in a deal to do that and I do have to get to the [cap] floor. There are different ways to get to the floor so I’m exploring all that.”

Continue reading →

How Are The Bills Shaping Up?

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The new NFL season will be upon us before we know it, with Organized Team Activities already underway. This will be an exciting time for Bills fans, as the team has slowly but surely been (hopefully) heading in the right direction. There should be some star players back to their usual selves after last season, with mainly CJ Spiller in mind, as well as an arsenal of new weapons for second year quarterback EJ Manuel.

With the latest odds at http://www.bettingsports.com/nfl/ the Bills seem to be a ‘middle of the road’ bet in terms of Super Bowl chances. The truth is, they will have to first concentrate on beating the New England Patriots to the AFC East championship, something which, although daunting after the last few years, is becoming more and more realistic.

So what’s new?

The Bills traded up in the 2014 NFL Draft to land some true star power in Clemson wide receiver Sammy Watkins. With both size and speed, Watkins is the sort of player that can really take the top off a defense and open up opportunities for his teammates. It was definitely a risk to spend so much to get Watkins, but the Bills needed to provide the offense with a spark, and reinvigorate the fans.

The Bills also added some much needed O-line depth in the draft with Cyrus Kouandijo, Cyril Richardson and Seantrel Henderson being added. If Kouandijo and Henderson can overcome troubles (injuries and character red flags respectively), they could prove to be steals. Buffalo also took CB Ross Cockrell, LB Preston Brown and LB Randell Johnson with their remaining picks.

The Star Power

The truth is, if the Bills can gel as a team and pick up a bit of luck with injuries, they have the potential to go far. CJ Spiller can be a downright beast on his day, but struggled through the 2013 season with nagging injuries. He and Watkins could be enough to give any defense fits, and quarterback EJ Manuel could profit from that.

On the defensive side, the D-line looks good on paper, with tackle Marcell Dareus and end Mario Williams providing extreme talent that could hold up against anybody. Young players anchor the back seven, with linebacker Kiko Alonso already a rising star after his rookie season, being named in the NFL’s top 100 players list and cornerback Stephon Gilmore ready for a breakout season.

The fact for the Bills is that a talented young team is being built, and 2014 has the potential to be a great year.