Two in the Box

Jarmo Kekäläinen has a lot of work to do. First up better be figuring out the two goalies he wants to move forward with. 

Kekäläinen was asked about his goaltenders in his introductory press conference and he didn’t beat around the bush. He expressed similar concerns with the arrangement as Lindy Ruff did recently and Kekäläinen’s response suggested he is planning on making a call sooner rather than later. 

If you were looking for a difference between Kekäläinen and Kevyn Adams, comparing the speed with which Kekäläinen makes a call on his goaltenders with Adams choice to sit on the trio will make for a good exercise. 

Kekäläinen has some time on his side. Colten Ellis remains out with a concussion and is being reevaluated on Friday, according to Lindy Ruff. Depending on the results of those tests, Ellis could be on track to be back skating as early as the weekend, or have more recovery time ahead of him. Update: Ellis practiced on Thursday and Lindy Ruff said he had cleared concussion protocol. So Kekäläinen doesn’t have quite as much time to make a decision.

I found Kekäläinen’s answer on Ellis specifically to be interesting. There has been chatter about the Sabres interest in Ellis going back a while and Kekäläinen made a point to reinforce that stance. It could be something, it could be nothing. But I felt it was notable that he took the time to call out the value the team saw in Ellis when they claimed him. 

Ellis is also the easiest of Buffalo’s three goalies to move. He’s on a one year deal and he cost nothing to acquire. It would be easy to expose Ellis to waivers and hope for the best. Even if Ellis was claimed, the Sabres would be in the exact same place they were when they picked him up from St. Louis. Trading him would represent a good return on their investment to boot. The downside is that we’ve only seen him play eight games, which is due largely to the untenable three-goalie rotation the Sabres have been running. 

It’s astonishing that Adams sat on three goalies as long as he did this year after living through the headache in both 2022-23 and 23-24. Though, to be fair, the 22-23 rotation was a bit different considering how much downtime was given between Craig Anderson’s starts. This year’s rotation didn’t just come with the typical challenges of reduced playing time, but it also kept the Sabres from icing their best roster on a nightly basis, something Ruff spoke out about when Noah Ostlund was sent back to Rochester. 

The lack of consistent playing time is by far the most problematic aspect of trying to manage three goalies. Some goalies are wired to handle longer stretches without playing, but most tend to play best when they’re getting into games on a consistent basis. That steady rhythm of starts is vital for establishing consistent results and looking at Buffalo’s game log since Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen came back into the rotation, they’ve had anything but a steady run of starts. It should come as no surprise that the best run of goaltending the Sabres enjoyed came when Lyon and Ellis were splitting starts. Well, when Lyon was playing and they gave Ellis a start. Either way, Lyon’s strongest games came when he had a steady schedule and it dipped when his starts got spread thin. It’s on Kekäläinen to find a solution. 

If Ellis is the easiest to move, Luukkonen is probably the most challenging. He has term on his contract and the biggest cap hit of the three. His play has also been erratic. For every start he has like his 29-save win over Carolina, he has a handful of starts with saves in the teens and three or more goals against. Simply put, Luukkonen isn’t reliable in his current form. None of those factors make him an attractive option for teams in the goalie market. It also doesn’t make him all that attractive for the Sabres to hold on to. 

I’m sure there are a few teams that would be willing to take a flier on him. Are the Sharks satisfied with Alex Nedeljkovic? If not, would they view Luukkonen as a better partner for Yaroslav Askarov? Elvis Merzlikins’ has been a sub .900 goalie for four-straight years and hasn’t posted a positive GSAA since 2022. Merzlikins has another year on his deal, but Columbus could use an upgrade. I wouldn’t overlook Nashville either. 

The one curveball would be if Lyon isn’t Kekäläinen’s guy. In the event Lyon was championed by Adams or members of the staff Kekäläinen doesn’t agree with, it’s possible that Kekäläinen would prioritize moving Lyon. He would be an attractive trade chip, with an affordable deal and one year beyond this one left on his contract. For a team seeking a stable backup, Lyon would be a good addition. However, his play ought to keep him safe. He’s been Buffalo’s best goalie this year and he’d make for a good backup or 1B next year if Kekäläinen manages a meaningful upgrade. 

Most of the talk about solving the goaltending issues has seemed to revolve around either trading Luukkonen or waiving Ellis. But I would ask why waiving Luukkonen isn’t an option here? His play hasn’t been nearly good enough and if we are to believe the organization truly values Ellis, why not clear the deck for him and Lyon? Waiving Luukkonen would zap his trade value, but it would also present a short term solution in net with the two goalies the organization has shown the most trust in. The club would need to find him a permanent home in the offseason, a task made harder if he played out the stretch in the AHL. But again, if the goal is to find a resolution to this year’s goaltending rotation, that is an avenue they could pursue. 

I don’t expect waiving Luukkonen to be high on their list of options, so I certainly don’t anticipate that happening, but it’s a worthy talking point if nothing else. I’m torn on what’s going to happen here. Lyon and Ellis are the two strongest goalies on the roster and they represent the best opportunity for success this season. A trade is unquestionably the best choice and offloading Luukkonen would ship their most inconsistent goalie. But I can’t get past the ease of waiving Ellis. It’s the path of least resistance and if they get him through, they maintain their depth. Similarly, if there was a team out there willing to trade for him, the Sabres would have effectively gotten an extra draft pick for free. 

If I was in Kekäläinen’s chair, Luukkonen would be the goalie I’d be looking to move. The technical improvements that help land his extension feel like ancient history as he’s regressed each of the last two years. It seems more doubtful by the day that he’ll recapture his form from 23-24 and moving on from him would set Kekäläinen and the Sabres up to be aggressive in seeking a starting caliber goalie in the offseason.