In many ways the first 10 games of the 2024-25 and 2025-26 seasons have been a mirror image for the Buffalo Sabres. The Sabres opened 0-3 in October of 2024 before scraping together a few wins, landing at 4-5-1 after 10 games. This year, the Sabres dropped their first three games but sit at 4-4-2 after 10. Both runs even featured convincing wins over the defending Stanley Cup champions (5-2 last year and 3-0 this year).
Yet, things feel more optimistic after the first 10 games this year. Maybe it’s just because we have the gift of hindsight to inform our view of this iteration of the Sabres. Don’t forget, after opening 1-4-1, the Sabres bounced back into the playoff race by the end of November, holding an 11-9-1 record after beating the Sharks on November 23. They wouldn’t win again until December 23, mercifully ending the 13 game losing streak that sunk the season. October 2025 has been promising, with a more potent power play and reliable goaltending improving the narrative around the team.
Buffalo’s record reflects a team that still isn’t a finished product. Their two overtime losses were a result of loose coverage and playing fast (typical symptoms of most OT losses), the power play still feels volatile and their first period play has been poor at times. The way they’ve opened games may be the most frustrating aspect of their early season play. They’ve been routinely outshot in the opening period, often needing several minutes to register a shot of their own, leaning heavily on Alex Lyon as they chase the game. For example, the Sabres needed over seven minutes of play to put a shot on goal against the Blue Jackets on Tuesday and six of their nine first period shots came in the closing five minutes of the period. Tuesday’s game against Columbus was the first time in three games Buffalo had been outshot in the first, but the flow of that first period was reminiscent of several other contests from these first 10 games.
Lyon has taken the brunt of the first period punishment and has weathered the storm each time. But the Sabres are playing with fire if they continue this trend. There will be nights that Lyon isn’t quite as sharp or either Colten Ellis or Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen simply don’t hold the fort. If and when those days come, it could make for some lopsided scores.
All of that being said, the trend could quickly turn the other way. Prior to Tuesday, the Sabres had gone three straight without being outshot in the first. They had two strong opening frames against the Leafs and dominated Detroit, so I’m willing to wait and see if they look more consistent by game 20.
That small sample is also skewed a bit by those first three games when the Sabres were quite flat. Buffalo’s team-wide possession metrics aren’t sterling by any means but I’m comfortable attributing that to the Colorado and Boston games when they were soundly outplayed. Buffalo’s underlying numbers against Florida, Montreal and from Friday’s win over Toronto paint the picture of a far more competitive club. My expectation (even with some difficult matchups on the horizon) is that their possession metrics level out and we see more of what powered their four victories as we move through November.
Waiting on a Breakout
The Sabres scrapped their way to 4-4-2 without some of their most important players driving results. Rasmus Dahlin has struggled through the first 10 games. As has Owen Power and Tage Thompson needed a bit of runway to get rolling. Even Alex Tuch’s start has left some wanting, though his counting stats, and his line with Josh Doan and Ryan McLeod, are strong. The Sabres have gotten good depth contributions while waiting for their superstars to catch up.
It’s understandable that Dahlin would be struggling to find himself given what he and his fiance went through this summer, and it’s plausible that Power could still be ramping up from last year’s injury and the additional ailment that kept him out of camp. But the Sabres getting decent results while two of their most important play drivers struggle to get up to speed is a positive sign as I doubt Power will continue to get a 4% on ice shooting percentage and just as I expect Dahlin to settle into the year. Both have been key offensive contributors in their careers, if they take off, I would expect Buffalo’s offense to follow.
Three Headed Crease Monster
Buffalo’s goaltending situation is not enviable. Lyon has given them excellent starts but the best play of his career has come in shorter runs as opposed to a season-long starter’s workload. Ellis had a nice debut but with Luukkonen back in the fold, reps and starts for Buffalo’s backups will be hard to come by. The risk of carrying three goalies is having not one, but two cold backups at any given time. The Sabres will bleed points if they can’t get reliable goaltending if Lyon isn’t starting. There isn’t a clear answer to the situation either. Lindy Ruff has not held back with his concerns on Luukkonen’s health which suggests the backup rotation will continue for the foreseeable future. If Luukkonen can’t stay healthy (or give quality starts) they’ll be forced to hold Ellis and an insurance policy.
The bottom line is that a three goalie rotation keeps the backups from finding any sort of rhythm in their games. It’s possible that one, or both, wouldn’t see the net for 10 or more days at a time. That exposes the Sabres to a level of risk they simply cannot afford. However, Ellis’ thin resume and Luukkonen’s health and inconsistency means simply casting one aside is equally risky. The faster they find a solution to this, the better.
Dawgs
Josh Doan and Zach Benson have been excellent through the first chunk of the season. They play direct and drive offense at impressive rates. Doan’s immediate production has made it easier to forget about JJ Peterka and having two players at the top of the lineup who have the same brand of jam to their game has had a huge benefit on the lineup. A lot of the talk about making the Sabres tougher to play against tends to follow traditionally tough players and fighting. But I think Doan and Benson epitomize the sort of play that is actually tougher to play against. Not only do they stay engaged physically, but the way they hound the puck forechecking and in the defensive zone is the sort of stuff the Sabres haven’t had enough of over the last few years.
A Moment for Mattias Samuelsson
Small sample size noted, it has been night and day for Samuelsson this year in terms of underlying numbers and to the eye test. His two goal outing certainly helps, especially in a 10-game sample, but he’s been more physically engaged and the errors that plagued him in the past have disappeared. His early emergence has given Ruff flexibility with his pairings to the point that Bowen Byram has been pushed down the lineup.
Two in the Box 