Two in the Box

Bowen Byram may have been the favorite to be the first player moved by Kevyn Adams but the defender is still a Sabre as we creep up on the first round of the NHL Draft. 

The available information still suggests that Byram will be moved, even with Elliotte Friedman’s report on Friday’s 32 Thoughts that the market may have softened. Acquiring Michael Kesselring in the JJ Peterka trade provides a capable partner for Owen Power, something fans and the team have been desperate to see for some time. The way the season ended, with Byram playing mostly third pair minutes while Mattias Samuelsson slotted in next to Rasmus Dahlin, pointed to a divorce between the Sabres and Byram. Especially after his blazing start to the year as Dahlin’s partner. 

Bringing in a (likely) top four defenseman for Peterka creates opportunity for Adams as he shops Byram. I think there was probably some expectation that Byram could be flipped for a right handed defenseman, and that’s probably still on the table if the Sabres feel they need to find someone more reliable (on the ice and in the training room) than Samuelsson to play with Dahlin. However, the current defense corps is structured in a way that I would lean towards expecting to see a forward as the primary return for Byram as opposed to another defenseman.

Packaging Byram with the ninth pick would make for one hell of a Friday night. That hasn’t been Adams M.O. as Sabres general manager. In fact, I think we’re still waiting to see him make The Big One. The Peterka trade was a surprise but a two-for-one deal isn’t exactly a blockbuster deal. Nor was the trade the sort of chips to the middle, all-in buyer package where key pieces are used to bring in a premier talent. Adams would probably need to add something more to Byram and nine to get into the high-end of NHL trades – think Huberdeau, Weegar a 1st and Cole Schwindt for Matthew Tkachuk – but even using that as a starting point would represent the heaviest trade package he’s sent out so far. 

I’d contend that if Adams is serious and actually has the ability to spend to the cap that Byram and the ninth pick should be firmly on the table. Either in the same trade package or separately, Adams should be pushing hard to use both to improve this group. He has a hole in the top six and I’d like to see them come out of this weekend with a solution for replacing Peterka. 

• As this draft has come into focus, getting bumped down two slots in the lottery looks a lot more painful. This draft class isn’t much to write home about, but with players like James Hagens and Porter Martone seeing their stock slip while guys like Brady Martin have been late risers, sitting just outside the realistic range where Hagens and Martone will land is frustrating. There will still be about six players the Sabres could pick tonight that I think would be fine additions to their pipeline, but they’d be in a much more advantageous position if they were still pick seventh.
• I’m still not settled on a preferred pick at nine. I think Brady Martin is a really intriguing target and he has the sort of culture shifting, high-energy character that the Sabres have talked about a lot over the last year or so. I’d also worry about him being overdrafted. Is it possible that by chasing the intangibles, you use a top 10 pick on a third center? That’s a very simplistic view, but it’s in the back of my head. I’d apply similar logic to Kashawn Aitcheson, another player I think would make for a nice pick. Left side defense is a thin position in Buffalo’s pipeline. Aitcheson would fill that organizational need nicely. But if the Sabres’ pick is Jake O’Brien, Roger McQueen or Radim Mrtka, I think they’ll have done just fine. Each has their strengths and weaknesses and I don’t lean heavily for or against anyone in that group. In a perfect world, Martone slips to nine, but I don’t want to get my hopes up. 
• One thing that probably won’t be addressed until after the draft is the future of Connor Clifton and Buffalo’s third pair. If Jacob Bernard-Docker is the clubhouse favorite for the right side on the third pair, the Sabres will either be playing two righties on that pair, or paying Clifton $3 million to sit in the press box most nights. I’d apply similar logic to Samuelsson if, for some reason, the Sabres acquire a defenseman who would pair with Dahlin on the top pair. I feel like it’s fairly likely that Clifton is moved out at a bargain price to clear that contract. It would be a good move, especially if Adams can actually use the cap savings. Similarly, will the Sabres want to pay Samuelsson to play on the third pair with Bernard-Docker? Or would they prefer to find him a new home if a more skilled and healthy defenseman is found to play on the top pair?
• Finding another defenseman would put Samuelsson watch into high gear and is probably a necessary move. A top four of Dahlin-New Acquisition/Power-Kesselring looks better than any permutation that involves Samuelsson. Similarly, adding a player capable of playing with Dahlin and moving on from Samuelsson would allow the Sabres to pursue a third pair option who is more cost effective and plays a more impactful game. 
• Finding a forward probably needs to be the key focal point of Friday’s trade discussions. I think Josh Doan will be a really useful player for the Sabres, but I think they’d be extremely foolish to expect him to be an acceptable option in the top six. Adams needs to be pushing hard to plug in another capable winger who can keep the top six viable. 
• The boogeyman here is Buffalo’s internal cap. Whatever budgetary constraints exist really muddy the waters when you try and handicap what moves the team will make. In a world where full cap spending is an option, there are a number of great options available to plug into Peterka’s spot in the lineup. The same goes for further strengthening the defense corps. But if the internal ceiling is still in place, a lot of the conversations around improving this team are just conjecture. 
• The NHL and NHLPA are on the verge of extending the CBA and securing labor peace. Of the changes in the CBA, 84 games is maybe the most notable addition. The shorter preseason will be welcome and I’m curious to know if 84 games was at least partially inspired by upcoming expansion. A lot of the other changes are the usual adjustments because GMs are whiny babies. Shorter contract limits = I keep signing bad deals please help me. No deferred money = it’s unfair someone else thought of this before I did. Signing bonus cap = my owner won’t let me use bonuses. Playoff salary cap limitations = Actually this was probably a necessary change, but you know it’s because GMs and owners were annoyed that Florida and Tampa, among others, used this tool to their advantage. Of all the changes, I like the shift to draft rights the best. Allowing more development runway should benefit everyone and it accounts for the shift in NCAA and CHL transfer movement. They still need a rule to allow CHL players into the AHL earlier, but this is a start.