Two in the Box

Kevyn Adams had a productive deadline, pulling one of the more significant trades of the window for the second year in a row. Friday’s fireworks means that Buffalo’s swap won’t grab as many headlines as last year’s Casey Mittelstadt for Bowen Byram trade, but swapping Dylan Cozens, Dennis Gilbert and a second round pick for Josh Norris and Jacob Bernard-Docker is a significant shake up of the team’s core. 

Similar to 2024, Adams struck for a hockey trade to help reshape his roster. Cozens was a notable piece of Buffalo’s core, locked up long term and wore an A this season. Trading him is a significant decision that almost certainly is meant to strike a chord in the room in a massively disappointing season. On the ice, Norris will step right into Cozen’s role as the team’s second center. He’s a quality contributor on the power play and should be a big upgrade over Cozens with the man advantage. Norris’ 12 power play points outpace Cozens’ 4 points of power play production this year. For their careers, Norris has 60 points (33+27) with the man advantage compared to 42 (12+30) for Cozens. For a team that struggles on the power play, that’s a helpful addition. 

Norris’ injury history is the concern here. He has missed significant time with shoulder issues the last few years, though he is on pace for the highest games played total of his career this season. If the Sabres can keep him on the ice, they’ll be in good shape.

Both Norris and Cozens share some similar traits as quality, middle of the lineup contributors. Norris isn’t as direct in transition as Cozens and will thrive with linemates who are puck transporters on entries. Norris, however, shows much more promise driving play in-zone, giving the Sabres a different profile and a bit more attacking variety in their top six. His 46% xGF rate and 47% CF at even strength could be stronger, perhaps they’ll enjoy a bump in Buffalo given how strong the Sabres have been at five on five this year. Cozens’ even strength possession metrics weren’t much to write home about – 47% xGF, 50% CF – so this swap is by no means a drastic step down in even strength play. When you take into account the consistently poor play we’ve seen from Cozens the last two years, Norris ought to be a breath of fresh air. 

Looking at the two key pieces of this deal, there’s reason for Sabres fans to be optimistic. Hoping Cozens’ departure sends a message to the room is a bit aspirational and will be difficult to gauge, especially in the short term. But Norris, if healthy, has a slightly higher ceiling froom a pure production standpoint and should strengthen the middle of Buffalo’s lineup. Whether or not Cozens can rediscover his game from 2022-23 will be the key to the deal for the Senators. If he continues on the path he has for the last two years, he’ll be a massively frustrating piece for the Senators to manage. If he can find his edge and finishing touch, he’ll be an asset to their young core.

Adding Bernard-Docker is curious. He’s a right handed defenseman who plays fairly low event minutes. But he hasn’t shown the ability to play higher in the lineup. Is it possible this is the steady partner the Sabres have been seeking for Owen Power? Or is he more of a depth play? The available data on him doesn’t show a ton of promise, but this could be a case of the private, internal data telling a much different story than what is publicly available. It will be interesting to see where he lands once his work visa is finalized. If the team slots him in next to Power it will say a lot about their hopes for the former first rounder. 

I think a lot of fans were a little perplexed by the inclusion of a second round pick in this deal. It’s hard to track exactly which piece it was meant to balance out. I like the theory that the deal was effectively Cozens for Norris and then the second and Gilbert for Bernard-Docker. It still seems a little steep given Bernard-Docker’s track record, but given the depth of Buffalo’s prospect ranks, it seems like an acceptable make-weight to get this deal over the line. 

Final judgement on this trade won’t come for several months. Buffalo’s core group has shown a propensity for mental fragility a year after player meetings called for more accountability in the room. Extracting a key figure from a group that has specialized in blowing leads shouldn’t be overlooked. Swapping him for a player whose offensive profile should keep the middle of the lineup similarly threatening is a good result for the Sabres. By no means should Adams be done reshaping the core of this team. I’d contend there are still two or three significant deals that could or should be made during the offseason to cull the remaining passengers from the roster. 

Shipping Henri Jokiharju was one of the few necessary moves Adams had to make on Friday. After locking up Jordan Greenway and Jason Zucker, cashing in on the only UFA of note was a must. The fourth round pick the Sabres get back from the Bruins is a decent return for Jokiharju. He’s not a heavy enough defender to draw attention from any of the league’s serious contenders, but as a right handed defenseman, he should have garnered attention and the Sabres did well to get a return for him. I have to admit it will be refreshing to see the Buffalo blueline without him. His tenure was unspectacular despite the longevity and he never grew beyond a bottom three defenseman despite showing some early promise. Regardless, Jokiharju was a pending UFA and Adams got something for him, that deserves a passing grade. 

Jokiharju was the last man standing after the Greenway and Zucker extensions. Both come in at two years and neither player got a massive overpay on their AAV. Based on all reports, Zucker has been a positive influence in the room and that has even shown on the broadcasts at times. While Greenway has been one of the few consistent physical influences on the roster and he’s said to have similar influence in the room. The Sabres haven’t carried a heavy veteran presence in recent years and keeping this pair will help balance the young roster. It would have been wise to keep at least one of Greenway and Zucker for that reason, getting both on short deals is a great result. 

Greenway’s physical presence is exactly what Adams talked about last summer when he set out to reshape the bottom six. Greenway has held up his end of the bargain and has been noticeable since returning from injury. He’s an effective piece, with some solid defensive impacts. He’s the exact sort of player the Sabres should be targeting when they talk about changing their identity. He plays with an edge while offering more than simple physicality. Of Buffalo’s two pending UFA forwards, he was the one I would have focused on re-signing. 

Getting Zucker back is certainly a bonus. While I wonder what sort of return he could have pulled, the security of bringing him back is valuable in its own right. I’m not sure whether or not he’ll be able to replicate the production he’s provided this season, but this deal is short enough that there’s minimal risk involved. Zucker has been a breath of fresh air and his production has been unexpected. If Adams is able to add a contributor above him in the lineup this summer, he ought to be a quality asset for Buffalo’s middle six. 

The only other move Adams made was a minor swap of Nicolas Aube-Kubel for Erik Brannstrom. I loved Brannstrom as a prospect and it’s too bad he never established himself in the league. He had a really impressive skill set and it wouldn’t hurt to get a look at him in Buffalo down the stretch. Adams’ press conference suggested he’s purely an asset for the Amerks and he’ll certainly help them in their playoff push. Whether an opportunity in Buffalo presents itself remains to be seen. 

I’d qualify this year’s deadline as adequate. Not spectacular by any means and hard to qualify as a success, but Friday was a step in the right direction. Adams was unable to make the big swings to truly strengthen his roster last summer and he’ll need to actually get the job done this summer if he is going to string the acquisition of Norris and Bernard-Docker into a more significant improvement ahead of the 2025-26 season. Adams said he can’t be afraid of making big trades in his deadline press availability, he’ll have to prove that’s the case in the offseason. I don’t think there’s anyone left who will accept an alternative.