Two in the Box

Over Thought is a semi-regular series that takes a look at some of the more interesting and notable tidbits shared by Elliotte Friedman in his weekly 32 Thoughts column. Each edition will feature some unique thoughts on the state of the Sabres or league as a whole before digging in on some of the notes from Freidman’s weekly column.

The Sabres will probably welcome this 4 Nations break with open arms after spending the weeks in the crosshairs of the NHL’s water cooler. The fallout from the Tage Thompson hit will probably linger beyond the 4 Nations Face Off as well, but I doubt it will be quite as focused as it was for the last few days. 

Buffalo wasn’t part of the trade flurry ahead of the 4 Nations Face Off, not that they had to be, but there has been an awful lot of chatter about who is and isn’t available lately, setting the table for a very interesting week leading up to the March 7 trade deadline. 

What sort of long term effect this saga has on the Sabres will be fascinating to follow. Darcy Regier allowed the Milan Lucic hit completely reshape how he was building his roster. Buffalo put an onus on getting tougher after that incident and two years later they were in a tear down rebuild. This iteration of the Sabres doesn’t have any recent success to look back on, so any sort of retooling wouldn’t have quite the same impact as it did in 2011. Additionally, Kevyn Adams was very outspoken about his desire to shift Buffalo’s identity and bring in players who would make them harder to play against last summer. The result was a remade fourth line and the addition of Dennis Gilbert on the blueline. On Sunday, only one of the three newcomers to the fourth line was in uniform (one was in Rochester) and Gilbert didn’t see the ice in the third period. 

The Sabres have plenty of items on their to-do list to get back to the playoffs, and I’d worry if toughness suddenly trumped some of the other, more pressing matters. I maintain that the solution to these issues is only going to be found if the group comes around to the realization of how they have to play. You can add tough guys left and right, but if there isn’t a desire in the room to have the fortitude and accountability to stand up in these situations, almost any acquisition will fall flat. In addition, any player the Sabres do pursue in the name of toughness needs to be able to play. Sam Bennett, for example, is the sort of guy who embodies the attitude the Sabres need to carry. He’s also a capable forward in this league. Compare him to Sam Lafferty, who is watching the Sabres from the press box. That’s the sort of calculus that will be needed if the Sabres once again try and address their toughness and identity this offseason. 

5. As expected, the Canucks quickly extended Marcus Pettersson at six years, $33 million. That was not going to be a difficult negotiation. The left-side jam made Carson Soucy available. Not an easy year for him, but I like Soucy — who played his weak side during Tuesday’s 3-0 win over Colorado. Very good for Vancouver in last year’s playoffs, and effective when Seattle beat Colorado in 2023. He can help someone. Calgary makes sense (he’s from Alberta), but the Flames want to see some Ilya Solovyov.

I love that Pettersson extension for the Canucks. Maybe the last couple years are iffy, but it’s a very manageable cap hit on good term. They’ll be happy with that investment. I remember some talk about Soucy as a potential Sabres target when he was in Seattle. The Kraken kept him for their own playoff run, so whatever might have been going on there was never fully realized. If there’s one thing the Sabres don’t need right now it’s a left handed defenseman who plays that 4-6 role. However, if the deck was cleared a bit I wouldn’t be surprised to see Adams go back and explore him as an option. Realistically, the Sabres would need to shed Mattias Samuelsson, Henri Jokiharju and maybe even Jacob Bryson for it to make sense from a depth perspective. But if they’re thinking of ways to get a little more rugged after Sunday, that would be one. 

9. Will be interesting to see if Pittsburgh keeps that top-13 protected Rangers 2025 pick (unprotected for 2026). A couple teams were disappointed to not snare it. There’s value. Everyone knows what the Penguins want — controllable young talent, preferably in the NHL or close.

Perhaps the Penguins would be interested in one, slightly used Jack Quinn? Noah Ostlund? No? It was worth a shot. 

Of course, neither of those guys are garnering a first round pick on their own, but this has me thinking back to Friedman’s prior report on Pittsburgh’s interest in Buffalo’s young talent. There aren’t many fits between the Sabres and Pens, but that first would certainly be one of them. Kevyn Adams should be stockpiling as much trade ammunition as he can and while there may not be a natural fit between the Penguins and Sabres, so these types of opportunities are worth monitoring. 

10. Toronto is seeing how high it can go at centre. Won’t be easy, and might not be able to shoot as high as a 2C, but the Leafs are looking. First-round picks matter, and they don’t have one in June.

Toronto is another team that would be a tough trading partner for Buffalo. They don’t have any really high-end prospect talent and their first rounders will come in the 20s for the foreseeable future. I’ve seen the Dylan Cozens speculation but I just don’t see the fit as trade partners. Are the Leafs going to give up Matthew Knies? Is Knies enough of a needle mover for the Sabres? I can’t imagine the Leafs would be open to Knies and a prospect like Easton Cowan. I’m not sure any convos between the two clubs would get very far.  

14. No one thinks Dallas is done. Depending on how they handle Miro Heiskanen’s injury status — and nobody’s going to be rushing him back for the regular season — the Stars still have about $5 million in LTIR space. Don’t be surprised if they aren’t finished remodelling the right side of their defence.

Even with Heiskanen on LTIR I don’t believe the math would work, but I could see Dallas as a landing spot for Owen Power if he is indeed on the block. After Heiskanen and Thomas Harley the Stars’ blueline is lacking in age and contracts with term. Lian Bichsel is a great looking prospect, but it strikes me that the Stars are lacking a bit of security on the back end. Securing a player with Power’s term and pedigree would change that overnight. Dallas lacks picks and they’d need to shed a bit of salary to make it work, but that group of Bichsel, Mavrik Bourque, Logan Stankoven and Wyatt Johnston would hold a lot of sway in trade talks. An alternative conversation could be had on Jason Robertson, who is out of contract after next season and has no trade protection on this current contract. It would be a massive swing from both sides, but it’s one of the few teams in the league that could offer the sort of plug-and-play talent the Sabres are thought to be seeking in a substantial trade. 

15. The Sabres have won four in a row, but we will see if there is any long-term fallout from Sunday, when Stefan Noesen’s hit on Tage Thompson went unaddressed. One player on another team said he heard from a friend on Buffalo that there was talk of the leadership group and/or alternate captaincies being switched over what didn’t happen. What a gamer, Dennis Gilbert. Fought Mathieu Olivier three seconds into Tuesday’s game to make everyone look better. Not easy.

This seems like a deserved and deliberate shot at Mattias Samuelsson. Of all the players on the ice when Thompson was hit, he was the one with the best credentials to answer the bell. He was also looking directly at the play as it occurred. To his credit, Samuelsson took responsibility post game, but his lack of action is still a red flag for someone wearing a letter.

Samuelsson’s injury troubles haven’t gotten any better and now Nick Kypreos is reporting that he will be out for the rest of the year with a lower body injury. His stunning string of injuries makes his inclusion as an alternate captain that much more questionable. Considering the season-long struggles Dylan Cozens has endured and the many issues surrounding Samuelsson, I don’t think many would question if the Sabres decided to go forward with only Alex Tuch and Tage Thompson wearing an A. They could do it without making an announcement as well, just let Thompson and Tuch wear a letter going forward and kill whatever rotation had been introduced in the fall. Between the break for the 4 Nations and a lack of any announcement, the move might even fly under the radar once the team is back in March. 

16. If he’s available, can see Tampa Bay lusting after Alex Tuch. They wouldn’t be the only ones.

I’m surprised there hasn’t been more conversation about Tuch. He’s in a difficult spot when it comes to signing his next contract and he plays the sort of style that fits all 32 teams in the NHL. The issue is that the Sabres won’t really benefit from a traditional rental package – rental plus one in Tuch’s case. The Sabres absolutely need extra ammo for making trades. But they’ve been in a position to leverage assets the last three summers and Adams hasn’t pulled the trigger. Last year’s first round pick is a great example of an asset they could and probably should have spent in a trade. 

So, forgive me if I’m hesitant of what a first plus a prospect would turn into under Adams. If there is something closer to a hockey trade available, that’s a different story. Tuch will be 30 when he signs his next contract, making anything north of five years a gamble. It might not be the worst thing to let someone else take on that risk if the return is right. Adams has been said to be asking for NHL-ready talent, not futures and he’s right to do so. If the right situation could be found, capitalizing on Tuch’s value could make sense. 

24. If you need a defenceman, keep an eye on Utah. They will soon have extra. 

Utah’s roster includes Robert Bortuzzo, Ian Cole, Nick DeSimone, Sean Durzi, Michael Kesselring, Vladislav Kolyachonok, Olli Maata, John Marino, Mikhail Sergachev and Juuso Valimaki with Maveric Lamoreux in the AHL. Bortuzzo and Durzi are both on IR but Durzi joined the team on their road trip, perhaps he’s next in line to return. 

Marino was a guy I hoped the Sabres would pursue in the summer and he’s slotted in next to Seergachev on Utah’s top pair since getting healthy. Marino won’t be available of course, but what about Durzi or Kesselring? Is Durzi’s spot in the lineup safe once he’s healthy? If Utah is committed to him, does that make Kesselring available? It’s possible either Kesselring or Marino slide down the lineup once Durzi is back. Kesselring is sporting a healthy 52% xG share and Utah gets 60% of the goals when he’s on the ice at five on five this year. He’s playing second power play minutes, which I assume will dry up once Durzi returns. Durzi has some quality play driving metrics to his credit as well and both he and Kesselring lack any sort of trade protection. In fact, a vast majority of Utah’s roster lacks trade protection, making them a logical trading partner for the Sabres. Even beyond the blueline (it sure seems like Kesselring would be a fit here), there’s a healthy list of forwards worth considering if you’re Kevyn Adams. They haven’t been mentioned in any rumors, but maybe Utah is a potential landing spot for Dylan Cozens.