By the end of this weekend, the Sabres will only have 30 games left to play meaning by the time they wrap up with the Devils on Sunday, they’ll be firmly in the stretch run.
The season went up in flames weeks ago, ending any realistic hope of ending Buffalo’s playoff drought. While an Andrew Hammond-esque miracle run could put the Sabres back into the playoff race, the reality is that these final 30 games will be little more than a formality as the club prepares for the offseason and the 2025-25 season.
While the outcome of the games won’t matter much, there are still a few storylines worth tracking in the coming weeks and months as the Sabres inch closer to game 82.
Jiri Kulich
This is going to sound awfully familiar, but these final 30 games represent an opportunity for Kulich to further entrench himself as an NHL regular and begin to carve out a more prominent role. It’s the same song you’ve heard from the likes of Dylan Cozens and Jack Quinn (among others), but it holds true here.
Hoping a prospect can continue to evolve and take the next step isn’t exactly a novel concept, but Kulich could even make others expendable with his play. There’s plenty of risk involved with that sort of proposition as almost that exact line of thinking was applied to Casey Mittelstadt as he left Minnesota and in the wake of the Ryan O’Reilly trade. Feeling confident in trading Cozens because Kulich can fill his role could leave the Sabres woefully short down the middle should Kulich not stack another strong season on top of this year. He could also slot in third on the team’s depth chart if another center is brought in, so there’s a lot yet to be resolved with respect to roster decisions.
Continuing to have young players learn on the job has been something that’s hampered the Sabres through their drought, though it had become evident Kulich was far too good for the AHL. He’s shown he belongs in the NHL and he’ll have an opportunity to cement that over the team’s final 30 games.
The Trade Deadline
All eyes are on Elias Pettersson these days, particularly in the wake of the Mikko Rantanen trade. The Sabres have been heavily linked to Pettersson and the Canucks and a trade of that magnitude would be the sort of prestige acquisition fans have been waiting for Kevyn Adams to make. We’ll see if a Pettersson trade does indeed materialize, but should the Sabres land the Canucks star, it would dramatically shift the landscape of this team’s forward group.
As Adams approaches the deadline there are legitimate questions about whether or not he should be the person making the calls at this year’s deadline. Depending on how active he is in the leadup, the justification of allowing him one more kick at a trade deadline may be the most notable deadline story for the Sabres. Despite everything that has transpired this season, his job appears to be fairly safe. If there was no threat of him being fired in the midst of an appalling 13-game losing streak and another lost season in the wake of Adams’ summer declaration of “the time is now,” then I’m not sure anything would have taken him away from the role in season. Maybe Terry Pegula will reevaluate the job should the Sabres remain in the league basement, but I’m not expecting any change in the GM chair until the offseason. If at all.
That means Adams is going to be the one making the calls leading up to March 7. We’ll see if he’s involved in anything ahead of the 4 Nations Face Off, or if he holds his cards until the deadline. Adams is in a similar situation as he was last year. His team is outside the playoff picture and he needs to supplement the core he’s built with proven NHL talent. He would be well served to make another move or two similar to the Bowen Byram deal, where he targeted NHL talent that can help to plug holes on the roster. Of course, the possibility of grabbing Pettersson will loom until a final determination is made by the Canucks. Swinging a blockbuster would certainly go a long way towards winning back some respect and interest from the fan base.
Adams will also have some work to do with his pending free agents. Jason Zucker and Jordan Greenway are the two most notable UFAs while Byram and Ryan McLeod’s arbitration status make them RFAs to keep an eye on. It wouldn’t hurt to find a new home for Sam Lafferty too. I’d also watch what happens with Alex Tuch. Tuch has one year left, a valuable commodity at recent deadlines, and the choice to re-sign him isn’t cut and dry. Any sort of contract with significant term would take Tuch well beyond 30 years old which could become a headache for the Sabres as the contract and the player age. I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of cashing in on his value with the hopes of repurposing assets to replace what he brings to the table. The pending free agents are the far more pressing situations to address and how Adams opts to navigate those decisions will say a lot about how he feels about this roster and how he plans to approach the offseason.
The Blueline
It’s safe to say that Buffalo’s defense corps has not been a strength this season. Byram and Rasmus Dahlin have formed a quality top pairing, though Byram’s numbers plummet when playing away from Dahlin, just as the captain’s numbers improve away from Bryam. Knowing he’s dependent on Dahlin’s play driving and defensive prowess makes it a little more tricky to assume his contract extension is a sure thing. Byram has also been regularly connected to the Canucks in any theoretical Pettersson trade packages. Dealing him would alleviate a potentially tricky contract negotiation, but trading Byram would leave the Sabres with two holes in their top four.
Whether or not Byram is retained, a lot of work needs to be done to this blueline. At some point Owen Power will get a worthy partner, something the Sabres failed to address once again this season. His best results have come with Jacob Bryson, with mixed results with just about everyone else save for Mattias Samuelsson. That pair has been a trainwreck, with Power’s expected goals percentage 10 points stronger away from Samuelsson. Getting a quality partner for Power needs to be a priority, not only to help balance the talent in Buffalo’s blueline, but to force out substandard players as well. Adams will have yet another opportunity to right that wrong at the deadline. With or without a new partner, Power is probably the one defenseman on Buffalo’s roster would who most benefit from a strong stretch run. A string of play that helps him regain his confidence entering the offseason would be massively beneficial for the player and the team.
It’s hard to see a future for anyone else on this team’s blueline beyond Power and Dahlin (and Bryam assuming he isn’t moved). The final 30 games could be a useful evaluation period for the remainder of their group. In a perfect world, the likes of Henri Jokiharju, Samuelsson and even Dennis Gilbert would have new homes for next season. That would make for quite a bit of work for the hockey department, but the blueline has been weighing the Sabres down for far too long. If we’re being honest, the team should already know who should stick around and who shouldn’t. Knowing where the liabilities are and where reinforcements are needed come summer should be at the top of Adams’ to-do list for these final 30 games.
There could be an opportunity to get a look at some of Buffalo’s younger defensemen if some players are moved out by the deadline. It would be great to get a brief look at Ryan Johnson, Nikita Novikov or even Ysevelod Komarov over the final 30 games. None of those three would be poised to be difference makers come 2025-26, but laying the foundation for where they would slot in would be a positive result from the stretch run.
Tage Thompson
We’ll see just how much Thompson’s lingering injury issues peel off his final counting stats, but despite missing some time, he’s still trending to blow past the 30 goal plateau and given a bit of puck luck, he could flirt with 40 goals again. I’d expect him to hit the 60-point mark with relative ease and I wouldn’t rule out 70 should some things go right. Those numbers would be pretty strong considering the time he missed and however it has affected him. I’d stop short of calling it a successful season, but it would certainly be a positive result.
What bears watching with Thompson as we inch closer to the end of the year is where he’s deployed. Lindy Ruff has kept him at wing, something he reinforced after Thompson’s hat trick against the Bruins. The reconfigured top line with Thomspon, Kulich and JJ Peterka has been a dangerous group for the Sabres, so I’ll be interested to see if that group sticks together through the end of the year.
The effectiveness of that line alone may be reason enough to keep Thompson on the wing through the end of the season. It’s also possible that he stays at wing because he’s not at 100%. If he sticks due to health concerns, keeping Thompson on the wing would represent the best way for Ruff to get the most out of his top forward. However, there would be challenges created if the plan is to keep him on the wing beyond this year. Keeping Thompson on the wing would suggest that Kulich would remain in a top six role for next season. That’s putting a pretty hefty load on the shoulders of a 21 year old, especially if Dylan Cozens is still unreliable as the team’s second center. A center group of Kulich, Cozens and McLeod is much thinner with Thompson as a winger. Of course, all of this changes if the Sabres do indeed acquire Pettersson. Ideally, you’d have Pettersson and Thompson as your top two centermen, creating a set of pivots as dynamic and dangerous as you’d find anywhere in the league. But you could better insulate Kulich behind Pettersson if you truly felt Thompson was a better asset on the wing. There would still be other issues to iron out, namely who Pettersson’s long term wingers would be, but that helps illustrate how the group would be shaped if Thompson remained at wing.
The Standings
Like it or not, the Sabres are barrelling head first towards a top five draft pick. When you consider where the Sabres are in the standings and the quality of their roster, they don’t look like a group that will be making a miraculous run to the final Wild Card spot. Never say never, but they look to be destined for a high pick in this year’s draft. Note that this isn’t a suggestion that they should go into tank mode. They don’t have the roster makeup or raft of pending UFAs that would allow for a true sell off. Besides, they’ve done a bang up job of getting to the league basement all on their own.
The reality of the situation is that this remains a flawed roster in need of further reinforcement. Some of that help will need to come in the form of trades and free agency – I think Jason Zucker’s influence has shown the right veteran additions can have a positive impact on the room. A few more might even make a positive impact in the standings. Yet, there has been a clear lack of gamebreaking talent in the forward ranks. Some players continue to be deployed a line to two higher than they should be and landing a high-end prospect could help balance the spread of talent on the Sabres roster. In a draft where there appears to be four prospects that have distinguished themselves, finishing in the bottom three would have its benefits. So, bleak as it may be to acknowledge, every point dropped helps secure a more valuable draft position.
I’m not sure if they could realistically catch the Blackhawks or Sharks, but I don’t think that matters much in this case. It wouldn’t hurt to root for a bit of a resurgence from both teams but I don’t see this as a situation where it’s imperative to secure the best overall lottery odds. The Sabres will be at the mercy of the lottery either way, but with three really good forward prospects at the top of the draft (and a defenseman who appears to be the consensus number one prospect), being in the mix ought to suffice.
Given where they stand, seven points from last and 12 out of the Wild Card race, they stand to benefit more from the opportunity to select Michael Misa, James Hagens or Porter Martone than they would from a handful of extra wins. There will still be a race to watch this spring, it just so happens to be at the wrong end of the standings.
Two in the Box 