Back in February I tried my hand at projecting the rosters for each country participating in the 4 Nations Face Off. With just a day until the rosters are officially unveiled, it’s time to revisit those projections and adjust for the first two months of the season and other factors..
Plenty has changed since February and today as players have gotten healthy, started the season hot or played their way off their respective rosters. We’ve also learned more about how each country plans to shape their roster. Bill Guerin has been quoted expressing his desire to have a balanced team as opposed to a star laden group. That was likely to be the case for all four teams as accounting for roles and better fits will almost always win out over selecting 20 players based purely on talent. Finland and Sweden, whose options aren’t as plentiful as the US or Canadian outfits, could potentially lean more towards current year production and players who have trended up to start this season. But overall I would expect them to try and craft rosters that are as well rounded as possible. I’m also curious to see if any of the teams sneak in a young player or two as they look ahead to the 2026 Olympics.
I didn’t have overwhelming changes to any of the rosters, just a few changes here and there. That’s thanks, in part, to the NHL player requirement. The Finns and Swedes don’t have the luxury of pulling from European pro leagues, something that has probably caused some headaches with the Finnish braintrust as they work out who should play on their blueline. I don’t see a whole lot of room for debate for these rosters, even for Canada, with piles of stars to select from, it seems like there’s maybe three or four spots that could have realistically been considered open competitions.
The Finnish roster was a pretty straightforward endeavor from my first pass in February. My lone change at forward was plugging in Mikael Granlund in place of Matias Maccelli. Maccelli hasn’t been lighting the world on fire, trending well below the 49 and 57 point seasons he enjoyed the last two years. Granlund has been a point producing machine for the Sharks, and top 25 in the league with 28 points. It would be awfully hard to keep him off Finland’s roster despite his on-ice impacts in recent seasons. The rest of the forward selections should stay the same, with the caveat that line combinations are sure to be different than what is listed here. Overall, I think the Finnish forward group is looking much stronger than they did last year. Anton Lundell has been excellent this season and their known quantities (Rantanen, Barkov, Aho
Only one change on defense as well, with Jani Hakanpaa coming out due to his lingering injury issues and Olli Maata stepping into his place. I’m not certain Maatta would be on Finland’s radar if they had more viable options, but this is easily the thinnest position group for any country at the tournament, and that includes Canada’s options in net.
Lastly, I popped Kevin Lankinen into the third goalie spot. Antti Raanta was little more than a placeholder in February as Lankinen was shaky last year and few other truly viable options were out there. Now, Lankinen has been tremendous as has easily played his way onto the Finnish roster. One juicy question that will play out over the next two-and-a-half months, could Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen usurp Juuse Saros as the Finnish starter?
Forwards
Mikko Rantanen – Aleksander Barkov – Sebastian Aho
Arturri Lehkonen – Roope Hintz – Kaapo Kakko
Erik Haula – Anton Lundell – Eetu Luostarinen
Tuevo Teravainen – Mikael Granlund – Eeli Tolvanen
Jesperi Kotkaniemi
Defense
Miro Hieskanen – Henri Jokiharju
Eas Lindell – Olli Maatta
Niko Mikkola – Rasmus Ristolainen
Juuso Valimaki
Goaltenders
Juuse Saros, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, Kevin Lankinen
It’s a similar story for Sweden. Gabriel Landeskog hasn’t progressed much in his injury recovery and I can’t imagine the Swedes will use a roster spot on him due to his timeline. Although, the option for an injury replacement would allow for some flexibility. Otherwise, I don’t think too much will change with their forwards and defense. There are some interesting candidates for the Swedes to consider as Fabian Zetterlund and Rickard Rakell have both played well through the fall. Maybe one of them supplant Leo Carlsson as the team’s extra forward. You could also swap one of them for Gustav Nyquist, either avenue would work. I also wonder whether or not Elias Lindholm’s spot on this roster is set in stone. They’d be thinner at center but they could adjust for his absence if they felt his play this year didn’t justify a spot. I have to think that would also apply to Mika Zibanejad if he hadn’t been tabbed as one of their initial six players. The same argument could be made for Erik Karlsson, though I think they can hide him a bit better.
My biggest error of my initial projections was failing to include Gustav Forsling, an foolish oversight which I accounted for with this round. I also put Filip Gustavsson back in over Samuel Ersson. Gustavsson is back to the level he played at in 2022-23 and is easily outplaying Linus Ullmark, making him the clear choice to backup Jacob Markstrom.
Forwards
Adrian Kempe – Elias Pettersson – William Nylander
Jesper Bratt – Joel Eriksson-Ek – Filip Forsberg
Gustav Nyquist – Elias Lindholm – Lucas Raymond
William Karlsson – Mikael Backlund – Mika Zibanejad
Leo Carlsson
Defense
Gustav Forsling – Victor Hedman
Mattias Ekholm – Rasmus Dahlin
Hampus Lindholm – Rasmus Andersson
Erik Karlsson
Goaltenders
Jacob Markstrom, Filip Gustavsson, Linus Ullmark
For the tournament favorites, I think just about any roster would do the trick. There is a lot of handwringing over their choices in net and I’m not sure it will really make that much of a difference.
I did opt for a number of new faces up front to adjust for in-season performance. Zach Hyman had been a popular choice to ride shotgun with Connor McDavid but his scoring touch has been lacking this season, while other Canadian forwards like Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli have been terrific. So, in comes Cirelli, Hagel and Mark Scheifele, out go Mat Barzal, Connor Bedard, Hyman and Steven Stamkos. My last insertions are Travis Konecny and Travis Sanheim, which were added after the report on Monday that the Flyers were celebrating the pair after practice, something many connected to their 4 Nations participation. So both have been included since they appear to have made the squad.
I’m curious to see if Alex Pietrangelo or Brandon Montour find their way onto Canada’s blueline, but I kept the rest of my group, with the exception of Sanheim. I think that’s a really well-rounded top six that check just about every box you’d want for this sort of tournament. Logan Thompson pops into the goaltending pipeline thanks to his impressive 24-25 campaign and as just about every pundit expects Jordan Binnington to make this team (not the direction I’d go), I went with the prevailing opinion as there’s got to be some fire to that smoke.
Forwards
Mark Scheifele – Connor McDavid – Sam Reinhart
Brad Marchand – Sidney Crosby – Nathan MacKinnon
Mitch Marner – Brayden Point – Brandon Hagel
Travis Konecny – Robert Thomas – Mark Stone
Anthony Cirelli
Defense
Devon Toews – Cale Makar
Josh Morrissey – Dougie Hamilton
Shea Theodore – Evan Bouchard
Travis Sanheim
Goaltenders
Adin Hill, Logan Thompson, Jordan Binnington
I used a bit of the logic that’s been attributed to Guerin’s approach to the Canadian forwards. My worry with the US roster is that the braintrust will lean too heavily into the choices they made in 2014 and at the 2016 World Cup (probably 2010 as well but their goaltender elevated that group) and hamstring themselves with players who can fill certain roles as opposed to players who can compete with the elite talent Canada will be bringing.
For example, I’d be disappointed to see Brock Nelson selected over a more capable or threatening choice. I should probably follow the same logic I applied to Binnington with Nelson (smoke, fire, etc.) but I like the idea of the US using their final forward spot on an extra offensive weapon like Cole Caufield, especially if they opt to bring Vincent Trocheck. I think Tage Thompson makes this roster, not only because he’s been such a threat this year, but his two-way play gets underrated and I suspect scouts and GMs would know that a bit better than it’s portrayed in the media.
I’m a little unsure on the course the US will follow on defense. I could just as easily see Noah Hanifin, Ryan McDonagh or Seth Jones selected. The same could be said of Jake Sanderson. I’m sure Neal Pionk’s production at least put him in the conversation, though I’d count him as a longshot. Either way, I won’t be surprised one way or another based on what the US blueline looks like on Wednesday.
Goaltending is straightforward enough. Thatcher Demko’s injury will allow Jake Oettinger and Jeremy Swayman to carry backup duties, though I’d still argue the Americans could play a little 4D chess by selecting Joey Daccord in order to keep him from playing for Canada in future events.
Forwards
Kyle Connor – Auston Matthews – Matthew Tkachuk
Jack Hughes – Jack Eichel – Tage Thompson
Jake Guentzel – JT Miller – Matt Boldy
Vincent Trocheck – Dylan Larkin – Brady Tkachuk
Cole Caufield
Defense
Jaccob Slavin – Adam Fox
Quinn Hughes – Charlie McAvoy
Brock Faber – John Carlson
Zach Werenski
Goaltenders
Connor Hellebuyck, Jake Oettinger, Jeremy Swayman
The official rosters for the 4 Nations Face Off drop on Wednesday. I’m expecting Dahlin, Jokiharju, Thompson and Luukkonen to make the cut. I’ve seen some suggest that Alex Tuch could be on the radar for the US, but I’m not sure if he’ll have the juice to make the roster over some more established or adaptable players who have been discussed as options for the Americans.
Two in the Box 