Two in the Box

Sabres camp was barely 30 minutes old before the first crisis struck, as Rasmus Dahlin left the ice early on Wednesday. That changes things a bit as it pertains to this year’s camp storylines as Buffalo enters camp with a unique schedule ahead of their season opening trip to Europe. 

Due to their early travel to Germany and then Czechia, the Sabres opened camp on September 18 with a clear line of delineation between what is likely their traveling squad, and the group that will stay behind to finish the preseason prior to the opening of Rochester Americans camp. This isn’t much of a surprise, as Don Granato received criticism throughout last season for spending too much time mixing in prospects with established veterans during camp and preseason. Between the additions made by Kevyn Adams and the onus to have a more effective and competitive camp, it seemed likely that Lindy Ruff would keep most of the key NHL group together. The upcoming departure for Europe made that all the more likely, as there is far less time for tinkering prior to the departure of the club’s 27-player group they will bring to Europe.

The first 24 players on the ice were exclusively established NHLers, with the exception of Kulich. One cut would give the Sabres their 23-man group, indicating Ruff already has a pretty good idea of who he plans to start the season with. Who the Sabres choose to round out their group for Europe is one of the lingering questions as camp opens. Jiri Kulich was a safe bet thanks to his his play the last two seasons in Rochester and his impressive showing at the Prospects Challenge. Being Czech born makes him an even more logical player to bring for the tour as a small gift for the player and the fans in Prague. I don’t think it’s out of the question that Kulich plays in one of the two games against the Devils given his nationality. 

Accounting for Kulich, extra defensemen Dennis Gilbert and Jacob Bryson, and James Reimer as the likely third goaltender for the trip, there will be two spots left for Ruff to use at his discretion. As another Czech and one of the forwards in the running for the 13th or 14th forward spot, Lukas Rousek will be a likely candidate, as will Isak Rosen. Kale Clague, Ryan Johnson and even Nikita Novikov may have already been potential candidates to travel with the club, a possibility that would become much more likely if Dahlin’s status is in question. Beyond the players the Sabres opt to bring to Europe, there are four other storylines I have my eyes on for camp and the preseason.

Reshaping the Bottom Six 

Shaping the bottom six is a yearly exercise as that’s a group of players that tends to have the most turnover on a lot of rosters. That’s certainly the case here, as Adams brought in four new players likely to carve out roles on Buffalo’s third and fourth lines (five depending on where Jason Zucker lands). What’s a little different than in past seasons is that Buffalo’s group is largely decided. Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Sam Lafferty, Ryan McLeod and Beck Malenstyn are roster locks. As are Zach Benson, Jordan Greenway, Peyton Krebs and Jason Zucker. How these players are deployed is still in question. 

Either Benson or Zucker will find themselves playing higher in the lineup. Both will likely play their fair share in the top six at various points in the season, but one will wind up in some type of third line role. The other will slot in next to McLeod, who is locked in as the team’s third center. Who fills the other wing remains to be seen. It’s plausible that with a big camp and preseason that Kulich could steal that spot. If Kulich were to be given the privilege of at least one of the games in Prague, I would assume it would come on McLeod’s wing. Greenway has been penciled into that spot throughout the offseason, though don’t rule out a more direct player grabbing that spot. Krebs is an interesting case as his best position is probably center, but McLeod and Lafferty could push him to the wing. Or the press box. I think the expectation is that the fourth line will be some combination of Malenstyn, Lafferty, Krebs and Aube-Kubel, but playing style and performance could easily shift one of those players up to McLeod’s line and Greenway down to the fourth. My money would be on Lafferty early on as he’s played higher in the lineup at previous stops in his career. 

Is the Room for a Prospect?

Kulich has the spotlight as camp opens, deservedly so, but I don’t think it’s out of the question that Rosen could make a push for an extended look. The issue both players face is the Sabres’ acquisitions from the summer almost cement the 23-man roster in place. Barring a training camp trade, it seems that it would take a monumental performance to push one of Buffalo’s established veterans down the depth chart. For example, even though Greenway may not have the footspeed the Sabres targeted in the offseason, it’s awfully hard to imagine him getting put on waivers. If any of the team’s acquisitions were susceptible, it would probably be Aube-Kubel. 

Any path to the roster for Buffalo’s key prospects (or certain AHL vets) is extremely narrow. The best case scenario is likely stealing the 13th or 14th roster spot and pushing Rousek back to Rochester. But serving as the extra forward isn’t conducive to the development of any of their blue chips, meaning any player of note would need to cement themselves as a regular contributor to steal a full time spot. 

Who is UPL’s Backup?

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is the incumbent starter and he has the contract to match. Devon Levi is expected to serve as his backup but James Reimer is an accomplished veteran on a one-way deal who requires waivers. Levi does not. There’s a case to be made for Levi getting the lion’s share of the games in Rochester as opposed to playing in a timeshare in Buffalo. Starting 50 games while Reimer spells Luukkonen would give Levi far more game time than whatever balance the Sabres opt for between he and Luukkonen. I suspect Levi would play somewhere in the neighborhood of 33-to-38 games this year in a timeshare with Luukkonen. A Luukkonen-Reimer partnership would probably fall closer to a 55-25 sort of split. I think it’s far more likely than has been discussed that Reimer could at least open the season as Luukkonen’s backup. Bear in mind that the luxury of sending Levi down without waivers would mean they could recall him at their leisure to get NHL action. 

With that in mind, Levi should be the choice. He was exceptional in Rochester and the next step is to face NHL shooters full time. Levi offers a higher potential for success while Reimer is more of a high floor type of option. He’s the safety valve if things go sideways while Levi is the higher caliber talent who gives the Sabres the greatest potential for success. There is also the possibility that Luukkonen could falter after his breakout campaign, leaving Levi as the only real choice to step in as starter given his overall skill set. I’m not ruling Reimer out as a possibility, though my expectation is Levi earns the job. 

Leadership Decisions

Kevyn Adams confirmed the team will name their captain in Europe, a similar process to the last time the team opened the year in Europe when Jason Pominville was awarded the captaincy in Helsinki. Dahlin is the favorite to wear the ‘C’ for the Sabres this year and Alex Tuch will be a shoo-in as one of the alternates. I would expect either Dylan Cozens or Tage Thompson to be considered for a letter as well This may be pretty straightforward for the team. Dahlin has shown his leadership chops the last couple of seasons and is the logical choice to be the next captain. Tuch is a fan favorite and has been credited as a leader himself and both Thompson and Cozens have the long-term contracts and prime roles to justify leadership positions as well. Few others have the tenure and profile to be in the running for a letter. 

How do the Defense Pairs Shake Out?

This section looks a lot different than it would have on the eve of camp as Dahlin left the ice early and Ruff had very little to update on his status. Assuming Dahlin is healthy, he remains the team’s number one defenseman. You can put him down in ink. But who he plays next to is yet to be decided. It appears that he was going to open camp alongside Owen Power, giving the Sabres a fully loaded top pairing. That would leave Bowen Byram to play on his natural left side with Henri Jokiharju, a pairing that struggled mightily at the end of last season. I assume the promise of Byram blossoming under Ruff is the hope with that pairing, but past results do not paint a pretty picture. That leaves Mattias Samuelsson and Connor Clifton as the initial third pair, a fine pairing overall and one that may serve as an ideal deployment for Samuelsson.

What sort of shuffling may occur (with or without Dahlin) is still a big question mark. I think a Dahlin-Byram pairing offers the same sort of explosive potential as Dahlin-Power while spreading the two key talents across more total ice time in a given game. The same could be said of the old, reliable pairing of Dahlin and Samuelsson, leaving Byram and Power as the second pair. That is yet another option that spreads out Dahlin and Power’s ice time and leaves the door open for Byram to blossom in a top-four role. It’s still perplexing that Jokiharju was brought back. The best case scenario is that Ruff is able to squeeze a bit more out of him, though I’m not hopeful. Right now his best contribution is giving the team an extra righty to move around the lineup. 

The bottom pair doesn’t offer much in the way of interesting narratives. Connor Clifton is locked into one spot and Jacob Bryson and Dennis Gilbert are the top two extras. Whoever shakes loose from the top four slots in opposite Clifton, early signs point to Samuelsson, but I’m not ruling out the possibility of Jokiharju ending up down there as well at some point. 

As referenced above, Dahlin’s early departure on day one could drastically shift the conversation about this year’s training camp and preseason. If his injury is minor, then the status quo remains. But if he is set to miss any significant period of time, there are suddenly several questions to be asked of the defense corps and a rethinking of how the Sabres will approach special teams without their cornerstone defenseman and potential captain. Even with Power and Byram in the fold, I think the defense corps suffers greatly without Dahlin on the ice and I would argue strongly that a trade would be one of the few ways to remedy the situation, as unlikely as that would be at this stage of the season.

Losing Dahlin would make this pivotal season awfully daunting and would shift this camp from a fairly straightforward endeavor in the lead up to the European openers, to a white knuckle affair with a short runway to replace a vitally important piece of the roster.