Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen needs a new contract this offseason and after an impressive campaign in which he solidified himself as Buffalo’s starting goaltender, he’s on track to receive a healthy raise and more term than the two-year deal he just completed.
Luukkonen and Jeremy Swayman will be the two most notable RFA goaltenders to track this offseason. Swayman will be coming off a one-year, $3.475 million deal and will be in line for a substantial raise as he too has taken over the starting duties. Swayman could garner a contract north of $6 million a year, especially after his playoff heroics. Luukkonen doesn’t have the same track record as Swayman and won’t be flirting with the upper echelon of goaltender salaries. But he is still set to see a substantial pay increase.
Filip Gustavsson is the easiest comparison to draw with Luukkonen. Also a former second round pick, Gustavsson had a coming out party with the Wild in 2022-23 after a number of disappointing seasons with the Senators. His .931 SV% was second only to Vezina winner Linus Ullmark and he finished with 30.4 GSAA (goals saved above average) according to Evolving Hockey. If you prefer goals saved above expected (GSAx), he posted a similarly sterling 24.54. Gustavsson was tremendous for the Wild and he was rewarded with a three-year contract with an AAV of $3.75 million. It was a fair raise from his previous deal, rewarding the impressive season he had, but not over committing to a goaltender who had only one truly impressive year.
That’s the sort of path I’d expect the Sabres to follow with Luukkonen. He has a similar resume to Gustavsson – one really strong season after a few up-and-down developmental years. Both Luukkonen and Gustavsson shared a huge responsibility in carrying their teams in their respective contract years and they each lacked an extensive track record of NHL success prior to their breakout season
Luukkonen wasn’t quite as dominant as Gustavsson was in 22-23. Evolving Hockey tracked him for a GSAx of 22.46 and 11.1 GSAA. His .910 SV% wasn’t as impressive as Gustavsson’s, though team dynamics likely play a role in that figure. I think Evolving Hockey’s projection of a $5.2 million cap hit is a touch high for Luukkonen, though it’s not far off from what I think his asking price would be, especially when comparing to what Gustavsson earned.
The natural dynamics of salaries in the NHL, plus a rising cap, tend to result in salary inflation as similar deals are signed in subsequent offseasons. Gustavsson’s $3.75 million contract from last summer set a benchmark that will be surpassed in similar negotiations. Jake Oettinger is another RFA who will likely follow Swayman into the upper tiers of NHL goaltending salaries once his contract expires. Oettinger’s numbers were down this year, but he’s been strong through the playoffs and his reputation is such that I’d expect his salary to climb above $6 million given his current $4 million cap hit. It’s hard to determine exactly where Luukkonen’s AAV should fall, but that’s the nature of goaltender evaluations. Joonas Korpisalo’s five-year, $20 million UFA deal wasn’t too popular when it was signed and looks worse in retrospect. But the $5 million RFA contract Thatcher Demko signed looks like a bargain. Oettinger and Swayman ought to enter the upper stratospehere of goaltender salaries when they sign new deals. But it’s a little harder to identify how the league’s middle class will shape up. For every fair comparable, there’s an equal over payment.
Given the typical shift in NHL salaries, an ideal contract for Luukkonen would be a three-year deal somewhere in the neighborhood of $4.25 and $4.75 million per year, let’s call it three years with an AAV of $4.65 million. That’s a hefty raise from what he’s currently earning and would make him one of the top 25 paid goaltenders in the NHL. A three-year deal also hedges against regression. Luukkonen has played exactly 100 NHL games and his results in the 46 games prior to this season were inconsistent. In addition to his tremendous 2023-24 season, he had flashes of brilliance in 22-23 and in a nine-game cameo in 21-22, but his overall body of work still lacks the consistency to justify a longer contract. If Luukkonen were to regress, the Sabres wouldn’t be on the hook for an extensive period of time. The same logic applies if Devon Levi were to surpass him. A three-year deal prevents the Sabres from being forced to run out the clock on a lengthy contract.
Conversely, if Luukkonen continues to improve he’d be in line for another contract at age 28, with the opportunity to truly cash in. He’d also have the ability to test unrestricted free agency, giving him some additional leverage in negotiations if he remains Buffalo’s number one goaltender.
Luukkonen fell just shy of becoming Buffalo’s first 30-game winner since Ryan Miller won 30 games in 2011-12. He’ll enter the season as Buffalo’s starter and could flirt with the 50-game mark once again this year. He’s earned the raise he will get this summer and it should come in a package that provides both the goaltender and team with some security for the future.
Two in the Box 