Kevyn Adams hasn’t been shy about characterizing where he and the Sabres are in their build. He just recently appeared on Frank Seravalli’s show on Daily Faceoff and stressed urgency, saying they are “in the next phase,” a quote that strikes a different tone than the sort of comments he had made in past offseasons.
Adams enters the summer with some expectation that he will be aggressive in making acquisitions that will finally put the Sabres back into the playoffs. One key piece in his arsenal is his 2024 first round pick, which falls at pick 11 after the NHL Draft Lottery. The 11th pick is a valuable trade chip for Adams, who could be shopping for wingers to round out the top six, a center who can take matchups in the middle of the lineup or even one more piece to bolster his blueline. Regardless of how Adams could spend that pick, there is a strong consensus among the fan base that it should be for sale to the highest bidder.
What may get overlooked is the value a first round pick carries in today’s NHL. A pick in the top half of the first round carries substantial weight but if Adams has visions of bringing in a player who will contribute, he’ll almost certainly need to add to any offer involving the Sabres first round pick. There are plenty examples from around the league to look at and even two of Adams’ most notable deals – the Sam Reinhart and Rasmus Ristolainen trades – included more than just a first round pick coming back.
The NHL trade market has adjusted to require teams to pay a greater premium for talent than in the past. For example, the Flyers didn’t just provide the Sabres with a first round pick when acquiring Ristolainen. They also sent a veteran defenseman and a second round pick to round out the deal. As much of an overpay as that may have been, Ristolainen was still a young, physical, right handed defenseman, some of the most highly sought after traits in the league. For Reinhart, a top six winger with team control? A first round pick and a valued goaltending prospect.
There have been 33 trades over the last two deadlines and offseasons that have included a first round pick. It would be tedious and useless to go over all of them, but there are a few in particular which should be considered as trade rumors begin to heat up near the draft. We have a good idea what the Sabres will be seeking and especially in the case of a valuable 3rd line center and a top six winger, that 11th pick will almost certainly be in play. With that in mind, here are a few recent deals which may serve as a barometer for what the Sabres may wind up paying this summer.
Los Angeles acquires Kevin Fiala in exchange for a 2022 1st round pick and Brock Faber
The Kings paid a premium for Fiala, who had scored 33 goals and 85 points as a 25 year old for the Minnesota Wild. He promptly signed a seven-year extension and has given the Kings back-to-back 70-point campaigns. The price of the 19th overall pick (Minnesota selected Liam Ohgren) and a blue chip prospect was appropriate for a top six talent with a lot of runway left before his age 30 season. If the Sabres have any designs on snagging a player of this caliber, they’ll be chipping in 11th overall and at least one of their recent first round selections. The asking price would be even higher if they were shopping for a center of this caliber. That means sacrificing at least one of Jiri Kulich, Noah Ostlund, Isak Rosen or Matt Savoie. That might be a tough pill to swallow for fans, but it’s right in line with recent deals of this magnitude.
Two similar deals went down ahead of the 2022 Draft. Montreal sent first and third round picks to Chicago for Kirby Dach and the Senators acquired Alex Debrincat from the Blackhawks for a first, and second round pick in 2022 and a third round pick in 2024. Both follow a similar framework to the Fiala deal for teams targeting help in their top six. F
Ottawa acquires Jakob Chychrun in exchange for a 2023 1st round pick, a 2024 2nd round pick and a 2026 2nd round pick
Ottawa took a run at rounding out their roster for the 2022-23 season. They brought in Debrincat at the draft and anted up for Chychrun at the deadline that year. Chychrun had two more seasons left on his contract when he was acquired, giving the Senators additional team control over the player. Chychrun was a 24 year old, top four caliber defenseman with term on his deal. That’s a terrific addition for virtually any team in the NHL, especially a team like Ottawa who was seeking a path back to the playoffs and long-term success.
The end result hasn’t come close to what the Senators were seeking and it seems as if Chychrun may find himself on a new club this summer. The Sabres probably won’t be looking too hard for more top-four talent after bringing in Bowen Byram either. But if they did decide to chase one more piece for the blueline, and that player had term, this sort of deal would be a decent barometer for what Adams would need to offer. This deal also represents a slightly more palatable reality in which the Sabres retain their recently acquired talent while only offering up draft picks to a trade partner.
Vegas acquires Tomas Hertl, a 2025 3rd round pick and a 2027 3rd round pick in exchange for a 2025 first round pick and David Edstrom
Rounding out the center corps may be the most important thing Adams does this summer. Finding a player who can take some tougher matchups and lighten some of the defensive load from Tage Thompson and Dylan Cozens would go a long way in adding balance to Buffalo’s forwards. It’s easier said than done given how centers around the league are valued these days, but there are still going to be options to consider.
The Hertl trade isn’t a perfect comparison for what Adams will be up to this summer. Hertl profiles higher in the lineup and is an older, established veteran with a lot of term on his deal. I don’t expect Adams to be seeking that specific sort of player. At least not one whose contract carries into their mid-to-late 30s. (Though, I do think trying to entice the Lightning to move Anthony Cirelli could be time well spent.) Still, Vegas was willing to part with a first round pick and a first round prospect in Edstrom to make this deal work. That’s a notable price for any team to offer up, it’s also something the Sabres could do without depleting their pipeline. With six first round selections and 11 top-60 picks over his last three drafts, Adams can sacrifice one of his blue chip prospects if he finds a deal for a center that suits him. That sort of firepower can put Adams on the offensive when it comes to making offers as packaging other picks or prospects could make some deals very difficult to turn down.
What is important to bear in mind is that Adams will probably need to add something to a trade package involving the 11th overall pick. The last time a first round pick was traded for a player straight up was June 2013 when the Devils acquired Cory Schneider for the ninth overall pick. So if Buffalo does indeed move the 11th pick, I’d expect to see at least one other pick or player moving along with it. Though despite the urgency, we may not know what Adams does with the pick until June 28.
Two in the Box 