Two in the Box

Thursday’s action dealt a devastating blow to Buffalo’s late surge for a playoff spot. Between a horrific third period and Detroit’s win over the Islanders, the Sabres likely need to run the table over their final 11 games to even have a shot at breaking their drought. 

That sets us up for another summer of retooling and roster prognostication. That was front and center with the collection of questions for this latest edition of Two in the Mailbox. 

@lazytown716 – The second year in a row of too little too late for this team is a feature and not a bug imo. There is something fundamentally wrong here, alarm bells should be going off over the makeup of the roster and the coaching staff. Does Kevyn Adams hear them and what should he (would you) do about it?

There’s a pretty notable difference between last year’s miss and this year’s issues. Last year, the Sabres couldn’t get a save but a swath of career seasons almost carried them to the postseason. Their power play was on fire for the first half of the season and it stayed in the top 10 well into the latter half of the year. This year, the power play has been abysmal and their top players have all significantly regressed. Naturally, they’ve received strong goaltending which will go to waste thanks to the issues listed above. 

It may be tougher to picture after a loss like they experienced in Edmonton, but the changes you want to see now ought to be different than what you were hoping for last summer. I’ll be curious to see if they bring in a new face to run the power play and if that means Matt Ellis is out of a job. Though, I suspect they’ll lean on their recent improvements and keep the group together behind the bench. But it’s something to keep in mind. 

I also wouldn’t discount the Casey Mittelstadt trade when it comes to reshaping this group. He was a well established member of that room and had been here through several seasons with a pretty significant portion of the roster.  Adams wasn’t afraid to move him for a player he felt was an upgrade and while his post-deadline comments point to a relatively quiet summer, I’m not sure I fully buy it. Not only do they still have a pile of prospects they’ll struggle to find playing time for, it wouldn’t kill them to consider a serious upgrade to their forward ranks. The pieces for another blockbuster are sitting right there for them. 

But if Adams’ comments on shoring up the bottom of the roster do ring true, the piece he should be working hardest to acquire is a center who can eat matchups. One name we’ve talked about a bit on the podcast is Nicolas Roy. Vegas will have some cap challenges to address in the summer and Roy is due to make $3m for the next three years. With Tomas Hertl added to their forward group, I’d be curious to see if Roy is expendable. He has the sort of strong underlying numbers to benefit the middle of Buffalo’s lineup, though his faceoff numbers aren’t astonishing (if that’s something you’re worried about). But he’d give them more established help at center – I have some doubts about Petyon Krebs’ future – and fill out the bottom of the lineup like Adams had mentioned. 

@Laserl0tus
Sabres biggest need going into the offseason?

Adams caught a little flak for saying he’s targeting the bottom of his lineup, but I think he’s spot on with that assessment. They have a well established top six and the emergence of Zach Benson and Jordan Greenway’s promising year means there are even fewer openings in Buffalo’s top nine. As mentioned above, a center capable of tackling matchups would go a long way to rounding out their forward group. 

That’s hard to stomach after this longshot playoff push got taken out to pasture, but if you’re trying to read Adams’ mind, you’ve got to pull the context clues from his prior work. He’s said time and again that he wants to build from within and he has been pretty loyal to his guys. So giving guys like Greenway, Benson, Peterka, Quinn and others room to breathe and grow is probably his preference. In some ways, it’s a good plan. They badly missed Jack Quinn and he is a truly valuable presence in the middle of the lineup. Getting him back healthy will be a boost to the forward ranks. The question I’ve been asking, and I alluded to it above, is whether or not Adams is going to take one more big swing. The pipeline is almost overflowing with assets to the point that he almost has to use a few picks and prospects in a blockbuster. I’ll be very interested to see if he winds up pulling a big deal at some point in the summer. 

@Kevinpalmer
Is it possible that Cozens ends up an overpaid third line center?

No, I think he’ll enjoy some positive regression next season and his production will be closer to what we saw last year. His underlyings have taken a bit of a dip lately, but for quite a while this year he was still doing a lot of things well. He’s been plagued by some egregious turnovers that stick out when you think back on games, but overall he still profiles to be a really effective second center. I think getting reunited with Jack Quinn and JJ Peterka will be one important step to rediscovering that magic. 

@WNYsabres61
Does Zemgus get an extension this off-season?

Probably. They can do a lot worse than what he offers them in that fourth line role. I’m sure they still value his leadership traits and what that would mean for the continuity of the leadership group. I also think it’s possible that he takes advantage of unrestricted free agency and seeks a playoff team – or at least a team with a better look at a playoff berth – as a destination. But I think there’s a pretty good chance they bring him back for another year. 

@Lappstar
Is part of the reason Granato won’t be fired because Adams realized he fucked up on free agents, the three goalie situation this past summer and put Don in a bad spot?

Another way to put this would be that Adams owes (or owed) his coach a big trade, which is something I’ve harped on a fair bit. Even in this mailbag. I’m not sure if the Byram deal completely checks that box, but it’s absolutely a step in the right direction. Maybe he pulls one more big deal this summer and if he does, I’m not sure there would be many more excuses for the GM, coach or roster for not getting over the hump. 

If you’re looking for a more conspiratorial take, I would venture a guess that Terry Pegula really likes what the continuity in the Bills football department has brought them and wants to replicate that with the Sabres. Therefore, he wants to give Adams and Granato enough time to complete this project. Patience has obviously worn thin with the fanbase and I do have to wonder how much longer they can keep the status quo given how sparse attendance has been for yet another season. 

@Davidcappella1
With the arrival of Byram what does this mean for the pairing with Power as well as the bottom pairing? Trade Joker? Johnson maybe? Bryson has improved, do we keep him for the bottom pair? 

The x-factor on the blueline will be Mattias Samuelsson. If the Sabres feel strongly that he’s a top four defenseman, they’ll have five players for four spots (Byram, Dahlin, Jokiharju, Power, Samuelsson). I’m thinking this stretch run might cement Dahlin and Byram as a pair, which would give them Power and Samuelsson as the second pair. That could be a win-win as Samuelsson could benefit from a slightly lower workload against slightly lesser competition. They don’t seem to care about handedness and both Power and Dahlin have shown the ability to remain impactful playing on their off side. 

That makes Jokiharju the odd man out and a pretty valuable trade chip (young, RHD, RFA). I’m willing to bet he is traded this summer and I wouldn’t rule out putting him into a fairly significant hockey deal if the chips fall the right way. They’ll have flexibility on the bottom pair and could even add to it if they found a righty who could make Connor Clifton their seventh defenseman. They could find a free agent or bargain trade acquisition that would allow Ryan Johnson to start the year in Rochester. They could re-sign Jacob Bryson and accomplish the same thing. Or they may feel Johnson is ready for a full year and plug him in with Clifton and another body rotating in as the seventh defenseman. The key will be how they shape the top four and I have a pretty strong feeling it will be Byram/Dahlin and Samuelsson/Power. 

@Jmagav
Impact of Pete Guelli on the arena? Seems like he has some ideas on that front.

These introductory press conferences are usually dripping with buzzwords but pretty light on anything substantive, but I thought he was really purposeful in speaking about the work they can do with the arena from a fan-facing perspective. He touched on how often that building is in use and how they need to make it part of the neighborhood. I couldn’t help but wonder if his take on the number of events held at the arena means that it needs to do more than just reflect Sabres decor and colors. That would probably mean an overhaul on the concourse wayfinding signage would be in order to change over from the Sabres-centric theme to something more all encompassing to the arena itself. 

I really liked his perspective on how an arena can be integral to a district and, ideally, it would mean finding a way to utilize some of those drastically underutilized spaces in the area that face out to Canalside and SHK III Plaza. Maybe his view is for the Sabres to be more involved corporate citizens with their neighbors at Canalside and the Cobblestone District. Don’t forget that at some point in the near future they’re supposed to partner with the NFTA to connect the new DLW Station to the arena and arena garage. 

Budget will be a hurdle but I thought he said some interesting things and I’d love to hear more from him on what is needed in that building as they creep up on a more sweeping renovation project.