Two in the Box

It will be hard to fairly judge any of the teams in this tournament given its length. Finland’s roster doesn’t seem ultra impressive on paper, but if Juuse Saros is hot, or certain key players on other teams are injured, the results could be much different than what may be expected. I think in a more controlled setting, with more runway to get up to speed this Sweden team could really make some noise. 

They have a well rounded defense corps and there are some serious players up front. They don’t have quite the same amount of depth of talent as the Americans or Canadians, but they’re close. It’s a solid group with some lineup flexibility that could come in handy. Their goaltending won’t get as much attention as the U.S. group, but the Swedes easily have the second best stable of the tournament. How it all translates in a round robin setting is tougher to determine. 

Adrian Kempe – Elias Pettersson – William Nylander

Nylander and Pettersson are the stars for this Swedish team and they’ll have a big say in how far this group can go. Kempe doesn’t get enough attention for his quality, but he’s a burner who will have no trouble keeping up in the skill department with these two. 

Jesper Bratt – Elias Lindholm – Filip Forsberg

I’d be flexible with Lindholm in this spot. I could just as easily bump him down to the wing on another line and slot in Joel Eriksson-Ek or Mika Zibanejad in his spot. The key on this line is to provide Bratt and Forsberg with a center who can distribute to them and Lindholm thrived when he played between Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau. This isn’t a complete like-for-like grouping, but providing Lindholm two high-end wingers should allow him to settle into the complimentary role he excelled in just a couple of years prior. 

Gabriel Landeskog – Joel Eriksson-Ek – Lucas Raymond

Landeskog’s long term health could cloud this a bit, but assuming he’s back up to speed come next spring, I could see him wearing the “C” for Sweden at this event. Raymond’s offense keeps ticking up and I think playing with this pair would help buoy some of his more troubling underlying metrics. Besides, it would be hard to imagine the Swedes not bringing a 23 year old on pace to hit 20 goals this season. Playing him with two responsible vets would be a good way to offer him some added guidance. 

William Karlsson – Mikael Backlund – Mika Zibanejad

Extra: Leo Carlsson

This is not a tournament where putting together a true shutdown line would make a whole lot of sense. All of these teams will be able to roll four lines of varying lethality and trying to play a single matchup line against them would be foolhardy. However, Backlund is on the short list of centers at this event capable of taking on that role. Karlsson and Zibanejad don’t feel like perfect fits here, but I can’t envision a version of this team that wouldn’t include them. At least not as it stands today. Karlsson seems to have found a bit of the offense that tailed off in 20-21 and 21-22 and Zibanejad is pacing towards another 70-point season. It wouldn’t be hard to imagine Zibanejad playing in place of Lindholm in this lineup. It would be one of the first changes I made given the tools at Sweden’s disposal. 

It’s a nice benefit to have a lottery pick available as the extra forward as well. The length of the tournament may make it hard to find a spot for him, but it wouldn’t shock me if the Swedes gave Carlsson at least one game if he came in as the 13th forward. 

Rasmus Andersson – Rasmus Dahlin

Don’t read too much into the order of these pairs, I’d imagine they would be very interchangeable in terms of usage as each game goes on. The Swedish blueline is an embarrassment of riches and it would be a treat to see these two together. I’m not sure there will be space on the power play for either with Erik Karlsson and Victor Hedman on the roster, but their acumen at even strength will give them ample opportunity to impact the game even if they aren’t getting extra time with the man advantage. 

Mattias Ekholm – Victor Hedman

This would wind up as more of a matchup pairing pairing two giants together. Hedman could even freelance up and down different pairings as need be, something I wouldn’t be shocked to see, with Ekholm used in a more conservative role.

Hampus Lindholm – Erik Karlsson

Extra: Jonas Brodin

It’s been a drastically different season for Karlsson after moving to Pittsburgh and at 34 years old when next year’s tournament rolls around, I wouldn’t be shocked if there were others being considered on defense for the Swedes. They aren’t short on power play options, so he wouldn’t be a necessity in that respect, and if the brain trust viewed someone else as a more reliable option, I could see him getting bounced. I’m not sure that’s a likely scenario, but a lot can change in the next 10-12 months. I slotted Jonas Brodin in as the extra defender for that reason. He’s not an offensive dynamo, but he’d offer another steady hand to the back end. 

Jacob Markstrom, Linus Ullmark, Samuel Ersson

Like the Americans, it’s unfortunate that the Swedes will only have the opportunity to play one goalie at any given time. Perhaps the greatest strength on the Swedish roster will spend a majority of the tournament with two thirds of the players on the bench or not dressed. Choosing a starter will be no easy feat as Markstrom has bounced back in a big way this season and will likely be in the Vezina conversation for the second time in three years and Ullmark is the reigning Vezina winner. It’s unlikely the third goalie will see the ice except possibly as a backup in the preliminary games, so the spot can be used as a reward of sorts for a promising Swedish goalie. Given their respective bodies of work this year, I’d be taking Ersson over Gustavsson. 

Names to Watch

Filip Gustavsson – Given how his season played out in 2022-23, Gustavsson entered this season in pole position to be the future of Swedish goaltending in best-on-best tournaments. It’s unlikely His play has regressed this year and his roller coaster results would make it hard to put him on the team without a deeper analysis of his form. If his play returns to 22-23 levels, he’ll be a lock as the third goalie, but evaluating their current play, I left him off in favor of Ersson. 

Nils Hoglander – He’s flirting with becoming a good secondary scoring option and if this year’s goal output grows, he could be firmly on the radar if the Swedes want a bit more offense. 

Adam Larsson – Minimally an easy injury replacement, Larsson could drop into the top six if Sweden decides they want a bit more defensive posture as opposed to offensive-minded players. 

Gustav Forsling – Decent candidate for the seventh defenseman role. He’s a consistent presence for the Panthers and has an extremely positive impact on puck possession when he’s on the ice. 

Marcus Johansson – He lacks the high-end traits to make an impact in this tournament but I suspect he’ll be on Sweden’s radar if they have to manage through some in-season injuries.