Two in the Box

Nine years will have passed between puck drop of next year’s 4 Nations Face Off and the last time NHL players participated in a best-on-best international event. 

Like this abbreviated tournament, the last iteration also featured some unusual wrinkles as the field of teams was rounded out by Team Europe and the legendary Team North America U23 outfit. The 4 Nations event will be a little more by the book, with the United States, Canada, Finland and Sweden competing against each other, with an eye on expanded participation in a consistent international calendar in the years to come. 

The promise of NHL players once again representing their countries means that the time honored tradition of roster projection can be practiced once again. Who better to start with than the team that will almost certainly enter as the tournament favorite and whose superstar has been limited to just one international event in his career, that being the 2016 World Cup? 

Projecting any Canadian roster with NHL players comes with the challenge of determining which of their 184 number one centermen will slide to the wing and which will play the pivot. Canada’s goaltending has also been a point of contention in recent years as the lack of a true superstar has left many to point to the crease as the country’s biggest position of weakness entering this competition. 

I do feel the concerns with their goaltending are being slightly overblown. There are enough Canadian goaltenders around the league with starters credentials who should have little trouble playing behind a forward group and blue line that will be this star studded. 

My goal with the Canadian roster was to plug in players whose traits complemented their linemates as best I could. Just about any permutation of a Canadian roster is going to be a formidable unit and I had little trouble cooking up three different variations of their forward lines that would be easy favorites for gold in this tournament. The group I settled on ultimately maximizes the high-end talent the Candians boast in droves, avoiding the urge to be cute by picking a player just for the sake of being different. 

Zach Hyman – Connor McDavid – Connor Bedard

I spent the most time deciding if I wanted to keep Hyman in this forward group. On one hand, you have the Crosby/Kunitz chemistry play that Canada leaned on in forming their roster at the 2014 Olympics. Hyman has been no slouch on McDavid’s wing, either. He eclipsed 80 points last season and he’s scoring at a 50 goal pace this year. So you can’t say he hasn’t earned the praise. But given the plethora of talent in the Canadian stable, you could be forgiven for omitting Hyman in favor of any manner of other wingers (or centers playing wing). I decided to keep him, as I’m sure virtually every other roster prognostication will as well given his continued success on McDavid’s wing and the easy button that provides in rounding out the remainder of the group. With a ready-made partner for McDavid, you just need to plug in another winger who can thrive with the duo and use the remaining three lines to eat up the embarrassment of riches that Hockey Canada has at their disposal. 

Which leads us to right wing and Connor Bedard. He’s another tricky fit on this roster in a way given his limited NHL resume and a deep list of veterans to pull from. But I have a hard time imagining Bedard is left off the roster in an NHL-sponsored event. Minimally, he’ll be their extra forward that they can plug and play at their leisure. There could be some risk in he and McDavid sharing puck touches, but pairing Bedard’s shot with McDavid’s world class distribution is a tantalizing option. 

Brad Marchand – Sidney Crosby – Nathan MacKinnon

I’m sure I won’t be the only person to put this trio together given their history of offseason training. My struggle was on whether or not it made sense to keep MacKinnon at center, giving the Canadians a spine of McDavid/Crosby/MacKinnon. The Maritime trio would make for an interesting storyline and, most importantly, a deeply talented second line. 

Mitch Marner – Brayden Point – Sam Reinhart

Not a bad third line. You can quibble with the profile of each and whether or not a slight shuffle could result in a better fit overall, but this is a pretty good start in my eyes. I think Point could feast as the trigger man on this line and while this season has been a coming out party for Reinhart, his skillset blends with just about any combination of linemates. I could see this line being a handful once the games start up. 

Mat Barzal – Robert Thomas – Mark Stone
Extra: Steven Stamkos

I suppose Canada could lean on a more 200-foot focused trio to round out the roster but in this sort of tournament, with their talent pool, I can’t see much need for a “matchup line”. If Canada needed to ice a lockdown trio, Stone could be an ace up their sleeve. In the meantime, I think this group has a nice blend of skill and, as noted on the third line, it would be easy to shuffle this group up and down the lineup as needed once the games begin. I have Stamkos as the extra here but you could just as easily have him replace Barzal, Reinhart or a few others and not miss a beat. Don’t be surprised if he’s in the Canadian’s top-12 when the tournament rolls around next year. 

Devon Toews – Cale Makar

Hockey Canada hasn’t been shy about playing teammates together when it’s in their favor. Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith, Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer, even Crosby and Kunitz as mentioned before. I should point out that even if Pronger and Niedermayer had never played together that would still be a more than adequate D pairing in any scenario. 

So I’m letting that ride with Toews and Makar. Sheldon Keefe put it pretty well saying it’s a different league when this pair is out with the MacKinnon line and why should that be any different if this duo hits the ice with McDavid, Crosby or any of the other forwards listed above?

Josh Morrissey – Noah Dobson

Dobson is having a tremendous season with the Islanders and makes a terrific addition on the right side for this group. Morrissey’s work last year had him in Norris conversations and he’s continued to be a minute eating monster for the Jets. 

Shea Theodore – Evan Bouchard

Extra: Dougie Hamilton

Theodore has been limited to 20 games this season due to injury, so he’s easy to overlook as part of the larger collection of defensemen Canada could bring. But at full health he’s a dynamic, two-way force who should thrive in a tournament like this. Bouchard is a shoo-in for this roster and could easily play higher in the lineup if necessary. He may not see much power play time but his play driving is excellent, much like his partner’s. Dougie Hamilton slides in as the extra defender despite his own injury issues. He’s a reliable option and as a seventh defenseman, would make for a great security blanket. 

Adin Hill – Stuart Skinner – Tristan Jarry

I suppose Hill is the odds-on favorite to be Canada’s starter in this tournament but I think you can make an equally strong case for at least three others. Hill’s Stanley Cup exploits probably give him the edge but Jarry has been very strong behind an up-and-down Penguins team while Skinner has gotten past his early struggles to help power the Oilers back into the playoff picture. None of these three are superstars but I don’t think the Canadians need one. Their roster is so strong that they shouldn’t need a world-beating effort to win this tournament. And these three are more that skilled enough to do that job. 

Names to Watch

There’s an important caveat to this exercise and it’s weighing how players look today vs. what they’ll look like in 11 months time. Sam Reinhart is lighting up the scoresheet this year, but if he’s only on a 25-goal pace when it comes time to finalize the roster, will he be on the outside looking in? Lots of players will see their stock go up and down as the roster decisions for the 4 Nations approaches and I’ve tapped five names for each country to keep in mind as the process plays out.

Morgan Rielly – The No. 1 defenseman in the epicenter of the hockey universe is going to draw plenty of attention for a roster spot. I left him off as I think there are too many others who drive play better than Rielly and the lack of power play time (Makar, Bouchard and Dobson all slot in higher for me) further limits his ability to positively impact the roster. I won’t be surprised if he makes it, but for my group, he was on the outside looking in. 

Thomas Harley – It’s been a revelatory year for the young defenseman in Dallas. I think he’d need to keep this positive momentum rolling to have a realistic shot at this team, but given his current trajectory, I think you need to keep an eye on him as a somewhat outside the box choice. 

Jordan Binnington – Last goalie off my list and probably at the top of the list for many. Canada’s goalies should be largely interchangeable and while I’d be very comfortable with the trio I selected, I’d expect Binnington to have a good shot at a roster spot.

Seth Jarvis – It’s hard to crack this forward group but whether via injury or regression, I’d look at Jarvis as a potential replacement. 

Bo Horvat – As with Jarvis, there are only so many spots to fit Canada’s many excellent forwards. Year-to-year production can make these lists look a heck of a lot different and Horvat could be prime to snag a bottom six role on this team.