Two in the Box

Buffalo’s goaltending situation is a problem of their own making. 

Kevyn Adams was gambling when he left his goaltending stable untouched in the offseason. After 46 games, there isn’t much that’s improved. 

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has stabilized the position thus far, taking over the starting job with a string of quality play that dates back to the end of December. He’s currently the best chance the team has to salvage anything from this season as his current form makes him Buffalo’s best, and only reliable goaltender. A pessimist may look at his larger body of work and worry that this is just a blip, but Luukkonen has exhibited much more control over his game during this stretch, has done a better job playing bigger in his net and has held the fort even as the team in front of him continues their up-and-down season. 

Beyond Luukkonen is where things get cloudy. There have been rumors of promises made to Devon Levi in the time leading up to his signing and his seven game cameo appeared to justify the franchise’s faith in him as an NHL regular. So far, that faith hasn’t been fully rewarded. 

Levi’s play has been erratic over 19 games, enough to earn him a trip to Rochester that was cut short by an illness to Luukkonen. It’s safe to wonder if Luukkonen hadn’t fallen ill, if Levi would still be with the Amerks. Or, at the very least, if his stay would’ve extended beyond one weekend. 

Levi had four excellent starts coming off his recall, but his play has dipped since, posting only two starts with a save percentage over .900 over his last seven appearances (one of those appearances being an impressive 37-save rally against the Kings). He’s fallen into a frustrating pattern through most of this year, one that makes those post-Rochester starts look like something of an aberration. For every strong start he has, it comes with three or four sub-par performances. For example, to start the year he sandwiched a 3-2 win over Tampa (with a .920 SV%) with three sub-900 starts. In his five November appearances, he posted an .867 or worse in four but turned aside 33 shots against Minnesota. Most recently, has been his current run noted above with only two starts slotting in with a save percentage over .900. 

Simply chronicling his save percentage doesn’t tell the whole story either. He took care of business in Buffalo’s drubbing of Toronto at home despite average counting stats and he had a similar performance in Toronto earlier this year (four goals against on 28 shots). It’s helpful context to consider, though his larger body of work has left something to be desired. Levi’s inconsistent play, combined with Luukkonen’s ascent to the starting job, starts are harder to come by for the Sabres rookie netminder. 

The situation the Sabres face with Levi isn’t cut and dry either. Coming straight to the NHL from college meant it was highly unlikely that Levi could be expected to take on a workload of 45-plus games. Regardless of who he would have been paired with, putting him in a situation where he wasn’t saddled with 50 or 55 starts was an important consideration for Adams and Don Granato. Few goalies have the ability to step directly into the NHL from college or junior without some sort of additional development time. Connor Hellebuyck and Ryan Miller are often the two cited most in comparison with Levi, but I would consider Jake Oettinger and Thatcher Demko as more appropriate comparables given the prolific play of both Miller and Hellebuyck.

Demko played two full seasons in the AHL after his collegiate career ended and never even saw a true starter’s workload until 2021 when he played 64 games. Oettinger’s path was slightly different, playing a full AHL season before joining the Stars in the bubble season of 20-21. He had a 10-game AHL cameo in 21-22 but cemented himself as an NHL regular from that point forward, finishing the year with 48 NHL games. 

That’s just two examples of NCAA goaltenders taking ample time to grow their game before taking on a more significant workload for their respective teams. The caveat is that goaltender drafting and development is anything but an exact science. There seems to be little rhyme or reason as to why a goalie selected in the fifth round has a more robust career than a goalie selected in the top 60 picks. But it’s notable that Demko and Oettinger, a pair of top-40 draft picks, spent time in the AHL while the Sabres felt confident putting a seventh round pick right into the NHL.

Given how Luukkonen has played of late and the cadence Granato has been using him at, the opportunity for Levi to see games in Buffalo has dwindled. In a perfect world, the partnership between Levi and Luukkonen would have given Levi an ideal share of Buffalo’s games. But Levi’s struggles and Luukkonen’s strengthening grasp on the starting job is eating away at that timeshare. Levi’s erratic play has been underscored by shots going through him and a -1.98 GSAA by Evolving Hockey’s metric. Meanwhile, Luukkonen has stabilized the Buffalo crease. That could change in a week’s time, but Levi’s struggles and Luukkonen’s ascent point to a diminished workload for the rookie. 

Levi needs to be playing on a consistent basis. He doesn’t need to be on a 60-game pace, but he needs to be in goal on a regular cadence. As it’s shaping up right now, that opportunity isn’t available in Buffalo. Further to that, his up-and-down play is indicative that he would benefit from an extended stay in the AHL where he can continue to grow and adjust to the speed and shooting talent of the pro game. 

An AHL stint would guarantee Levi sees the sort of workload that he was expected to get at the start of the season in an environment where his development can be moved forward. Rochester’s goaltending stable also means he won’t be at risk of being overworked.

In theory, it should be easy for the Sabres to make this call. They have another goalie in Rochester who they sent down recently, it would be very simple to swap Levi and Eric Comrie. Only, Comrie’s play hasn’t been any better than Levi’s. By many metrics he’s been much worse (-5.51 GSAA at even strength) and the eye test hasn’t been much more forgiving. He has provided the Amerks with stout goaltending thus far, so perhaps he could return from Rochester rejuvenated. Given that they only recalled him so Levi could get a start and immediately returned each to where they were playing, it’s fair to assume that Comrie’s struggles were enough to keep the Sabres from viewing him as a viable backup to Luukkonen. To equate this in other terms, if Comrie was a third quarterback and the backup was injured, the team would simply sign someone off the street instead of elevating him to the backup job. It’s a bad place to be if the “third” goalie can’t be trusted and is therefore keeping the struggling backup from being sent down. It opens the door to stunt Levi’s growth and create headaches in the short and long-term for the club. 

Considering the state of this Sabres season, there’s little reason that Comrie and Levi shouldn’t be swapped for an extended period with the goal of getting Levi’s development on a more consistent track. But it appears the offseason inaction at the position is preventing Levi from being put in a more advantageous position.