Two in the Box

Going back to the spring, many Sabres fans have been waiting on a trade that hasn’t come. 

As Buffalo morphed into a playoff contender, there was a growing expectation that Kevyn Adams would make some deals to round out his roster. But his action at the deadline was more measured than some may have guessed, and he completed the offseason without any notable deals being made (save for dealing Ilya Lyubushkin to alleviate a numbers crunch on the blueline). Victor Olofsson is on record saying he was prepared to be moved, but no deal materialized for him, a goaltender or any other position which could have helped the Sabres take the next step to the playoffs. 

It’s understandable that Adams hasn’t been in a rush to shake up his group. The forward group is brimming with young talent while a pair of first overall picks anchor the blueline. Buffalo boasts a core many teams can only dream of. The need to materially alter this group is reserved to maybe two or three spots across the entire roster. Unlike previous years during this decade-long rebuild, the team isn’t in a position where they’re lacking depth on the NHL roster or in their pipeline. It’s a luxury which will put them in a position of strength when the time comes to take a big swing. 

And that time is approaching. 

Adams’ reported flirtation with Carolina over Brett Pesce shows that he’s prepared to take on improvements from outside the organization. At some point another team will realize it’s time to rebuild or a contract stalemate will create the opportunity for a blockbuster. The Sabres will also need to eventually find homes for all of the premium draft picks they’ve made over the last three years. Whether it’s here in Buffalo or utilizing those prospects as trade fodder, it’s unlikely that all of the players Adams has selected in the first three rounds of the draft will land in Buffalo. 

Knowing that the dam is going to break at some point, it felt like as good a time as any to lump Buffalo’s roster into trade tiers. Much like prospect tiers, this is a more elegant way to identify how likely it seems that a player could, or would, be moved. I’m using five tiers in this instance ranging from those who seem the most likely to move down to the players who would be deemed as untouchable by the club. 

I did leave off most of Buffalo’s minor league veterans playing in Rochester on NHL contracts. It’s not totally out of the question that someone like Brett Murray could be thrown into a trade package, but these types of players tend to get swapped for other players on two-way deals to little or no fanfare. For example, last year’s acquisition of Joseph Cecconi. Taking the volatility of those minor league deals into account, and the sort of trades fans tend to be interested in, it made sense to leave that group of players off. 

Have a Bag Packed

The title of this section speaks for itself. These are the players who have the highest likelihood of being dealt given rumors and roster competition. 

Victor Olofsson

Probably the easiest player to place. Olofsson stated that he was expecting a trade this offseason. Jack Quinn’s injury likely saved him for the time being. But Quinn will be back at some point this season and the team is said to be considering Pat Kane as a free agent signing. Combined with the arrival of Zach Benson and the continued growth of Jiri Kulich, Isak Rosen and Matt Savoie, Olofsson’s days in Buffalo are numbered. Whether a deal is even consummated, or he departs as a free agent, I doubt you see him back in Buffalo next fall. 

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen 

Both Luukkonen and Eric Comrie make this section as it still seems as if the backup position behind Devon Levi is a toss-up. Rather than risking either to waivers, the Sabres opted to keep three goalies to start the year. A fair decision with both Tampa and Colorado on the hunt for help in goal. The situation is untenable to carry for the entire season. The schedule isn’t conducive to keeping all three in rhythm and Adams and Don Granato should be feeling pressure to make a decision. It’s my suspicion that they were hoping Luukkonen would take the job and run with it, but he wasn’t sharp enough in preseason. I also think, of the two, he carries the most trade value. However much that may be. 

Eric Comrie

If the Sabres eventually determine that Comrie is the goaltender they wish to move, I suspect waivers would be the most likely destination for him. He’s been a waiver casualty several times in his career and he doesn’t boast the higher ceiling that Luukkonen has. Either via trade or waivers, his cap hit may be tough for teams to fit in their structure, which could wind up with him being loaned to Rochester or another AHL club. Either way, both he and Luukkonen probably won’t be too comfortable for the first few weeks of the season, especially if one hits a run of cold starts. 

Bubble Players

This group should be considered interchangeable with the one below it. The groups in each section all generally fit the mold of players who represent some form of value to the Sabres in a trade, are excess to requirements at their given position or have otherwise been passed on the depth chart.

Casey Mittlestadt

This may be controversial, but Mittelstadt is in a tough position contractually and in the overall scope of Buffalo’s rebuild. He really found himself in 2022-23, carving out a meaningful role with the team, and he looks poised to be a valuable piece of Buffalo’s middle-six this season. However, he is a restricted free agent this summer and the team has spent four top-50 picks on centers over the last two drafts in addition to acquiring a 22-year old center in Peyton Krebs. Teams across the league are desperate for center talent and there is a framework in place to fill his spot internally. I believe Mittelstadt is currently Buffalo’s most valuable trade chip. That doesn’t mean I feel they should be running to the phone to move him, but I think he could fetch them the best return if they opted to make him available. I also think it would be premature to move him without knowing if Krebs, Kulich, Savoie or one of their other center prospects is truly ready to step into a more meaningful role. 

Jacob Bryson

Bryson making the opening night roster was a bit of a surprise, especially considering he seemed to be passed on the depth chart due to his struggles in 22-23. He’s still pretty firmly the seventh defenseman on the roster and Ryan Johnson’s preseason should be more than enough to illustrate that Bryson may not be in Buffalo long term. The Sabres also have acceptable replacements waiting in Rochester if an offer were to be made for Bryson. Not only is Johnson going to be knocking on the door for an NHL job, the two players Bryson beat out (Kale Clague and Riley Stillman) have shown to be capable third-pair defenders. So it seems fair to say that Bryson’s spot is hardly a lock. His trade value is going to be minimal, however, so that limits the likelihood he gets shipped out, but he has to rank high on the list of potential departures. 

Riley Stillman

The Sabres surrendered a fairly notable asset for Stillman at last year’s deadline. Josh Bloom may not have been considered a premier prospect, but he was showing some impressive growth in the OHL. That Stillman didn’t make the team just months after they went out to acquire him is notable. He’s also been traded three times over the last three seasons. His value has likely dipped from the price the team paid last year, but if a club is in need for a defender who can play with some jam, there could be a market. With Jacob Bryson beating him out and Kale Clague and Ryan Johsnon joining Stillman in Rochester, there is depth available to sustain moving him. 

Mats Lindgren

Lindgren had the look of an exciting mid-round pick after he was drafted but the combination of Buffalo’s two blueline cornerstones, Mattias Samuelsson’s extension and the signing of Ryan Johnson and Nikita Novikov may create a difficult path forward for Lindrgen. You could also argue that he didn’t take as big of a step in his D+1 season as you would have liked. With more competition in the pipeline, the Sabres may want to leverage Lindgren’s offensive upside and skating skill as a sweetener in a future trade offer as they have enough pieces in place in the NHL and the pipeline to weather that loss. 

Valuable Assets

Think of this group as the players who the Sabres probably wouldn’t want to trade, but would at least need to consider given the value they’d offer in a trade and/or the team’s ability to survive including the player in a deal. Many of these players are prospects who don’t need a lengthy explainer to show why I grouped them here. Much like how Adams utilized Josh Bloom to acquire Riley Stillman last season, it wouldn’t be shocking if a player like Filip Cederqvist or Prokhor Poltapov was used in a future deal. But it it equally likely that many of the prospects listed are viewed for their future value as Sabres as well. 

Henri Jokiharju

I’m not sure it’s a secret that the Sabres like Jokiharju. They continue to give him prime opportunities and despite some hiccups, he’s been a good defender for them. That being said, right handed defensemen are worth their weight in gold in the NHL and Jokiharju is sort of in a similar no man’s land as Mittelstadt is. He’s a restricted free agent at the end of the year, with arbitration rights, and the way the Sabres have shaped their blue line extensions and acquisitions could put Jokiharju on the outside looking in. Maybe not this year, but soon. Factor in the rumors that the club was pursuing Pesce in a trade and Jokiharju’s future looks a little more murky. Adams would need to have a proper replacement lined up before he even considered moving Jokiharju, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he eventually finds his way into some rumors. 

Jordan Greenway

Much of Greenway’s future with the Sabres will rest on this season. He’s being put in a prime position to be a contributor and when you consider the price the team paid to get him, that makes sense. He has another year left on his deal at $3M after this season but could very easily be bumped depending on the growth of Buffalo’s stable of prospects. No one who is knocking on the door brings the same profile that Greenway does, but if Kulich or Savoie were to show they can be impactful middle-six contributors, I’d worry what it means for Greenway. Those two aren’t likely to threaten Greenway in the short term, but their continued growth could mean Adams is considering who he needs to shuffle out to make the necessary space. 

Noah Ostlund

One of the pieces of the Jack Eichel trade, Ostlund is plying his craft in Sweden for another season before coming to North America. Considering he will spend at least one season in the AHL, I’m curious to know how the organization views him with respect to their other recent draft picks. Is he considered to be on the same level as the likes of Kulich and Rosen? Do they feel he’s a step below their other blue chips due to his current NHL timeline? Considering their glut of centers, is he more expendable than someone like Viktor Neuchev? There are plenty of factors to consider when discussing any of Buffalo’s prospects, but it’s the numbers game that stands out to me with regard to Ostlund. Buffalo has at least two NHL centers locked in to long-term contracts and a handful more players under 25 who play the position. How does Ostlund fit into that equation? If he’s on the bottom half of that list, he may ultimately be more valuable to the Sabres in a trade that brings them an upgrade on the top half of their lineup. 

Notables: Filip Cederqvist, Alexandr Kisakov, Tyson Kozak, Olivier Nadeau, Lukas Rousek, Prokhor Poltapov, Topias Leinonen

Safe and Sound

This group is any player whose status is safe thanks to either contract status, age or general value to the organization. They may not be truly untouchable, but there’s also a minute chance that a team would come calling on Kyle Okposo or Tyson Jost. Not totally out of the question, but unlikely. Similarly, it seems unlikely that the Sabres would be willing to entertain a trade offer for Ryan Johnson unless they were blown away with the deal. 

Jeff Skinner

His cap hit alone makes him virtually untouchable but he’s managed to remain a lethal even strength scorer and a key aspect of the club’s core. Believe it or not, there’s only three years left on his deal and if he keeps scoring, I would expect to see him play out those final three years in blue and gold. 

Peyton Krebs

I weighed plugging him in one group higher, as I don’t think it’s out of the question that Krebs could be leveraged in a trade to upgrade elsewhere. Ultimately, I think his greatest value is untapped and the opportunity to keep growing in his role with the Sabres is what Adams and Granato have in mind. Krebs seems like an ideal fit to center Buffalo’s third line if Casey Mittelstadt eventually finds himself in another city. 

Matt Savoie

Injuries have kept him out of the spotlight in Buffalo, but the second half of his WHL season was dazzling in 22-23. He may have lost some of his prospect luster, but there is plenty of reason to remain very high on him. He would make for a very attractive trade piece, something to keep in mind if the Sabres go big game hunting. However, his offensive upside and potential to stick at center in the future keeps him among Buffalo’s most important prospects. 

Anton Wahlberg

I wouldn’t argue if you said Wahlberg was considered untouchable by the club. The Sabres worked hard to trade up for him at this year’s draft, only to see their fortunes land him at 39th overall. A big, skilled center is an extremely valuable chip to play, and I would have to think the Sabres are very excited at where he could project after a little more time in the SHL. The only thing that kept me from considering him as an untouchable asset is Buffalo’s stockpile of high-end prospect talent. At some point, one of those players will be moved in a trade and I think the further a player is from the NHL – in this case, simply due to the year he was drafted – the more likely it would be that he could be moved. 

Ryan Johnson

It was a long wait to see the draft pick from the Ryan O’Reilly trade put pen to paper, but Johnson has enjoyed a very productive preseason. He’s poised to play big minutes with Rochester and should be forcing Sabres management into some difficult decisions in the near future. Johnson, along with Mattias Samuelsson, Nikita Novikov and Maxim Strbak comprise a group of young defensemen who should have a tremendous opportunity to shape Buffalo’s blueline for years to come. While the team’s defensive pipeline isn’t quite as impressive as the forward group, it’s still a fairly crowded position when you take into account the presence of Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power and even Samuelsson’s extension. That narrows the roster by at least two spots and could eventually force out an otherwise deserving player. So, while I list these players as safe for now, I think it would be an over reach to say many of them are untouchable. 

Notables: Zemgus Girgensons, Kyle Okposo, Tyson Jost, Isak Rosen, Viktor Neuchev, Mattias Samuelsson, Connor Clifton, Erik Johnson, Nikita Novikov, Maxim Strbak, Gavin McCarthy

The New York Rangers

The untouchables. There is virtually no offer that could force Kevyn Adams to dare consider trading anyone from this group. Given where the team is and the investment they’ve made into many of these players, it would require a monumental offer to pry one of these players loose. Most of them speak for themselves. Dylan Cozens and Tage Thompson both signed long-term extensions which will carry a very team-friendly cap in in the coming years. Alex Tuch has proven to be a vital piece of the team’s forward and leadership group and Zach Benson made the team mere months after being drafted. 

Meanwhile, Jiri Kulich, JJ Peterka and Jack Quinn are far and away the team’s most valuable prospects (along with Benson) and Devon Levi has been handed the starter’s role without a sniff of the AHL. 

On the back end, Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power have each inked long-term extensions of their own, locking in the team’s pair of first overall picks and defensive cornerstones for the next seven seasons. They may be the two most immovable players in the entire organization. 

Untouchables: Tage Thompson, Dylan Cozens, Alex Tuch, Zach Benson, JJ Peterka, Jack Quinn, Jiri Kulich, Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power, Devon Levi