Two in the Box

Featuring Chris & @BuffaloWins

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Many moons ago, there was a little site called Buffalo Wins. I’d contribute to their Bills and Sabres coverage from time to time when I wasn’t arguing on Twitter with Joe about whatever he was mad about that week. One of our most enjoyable content pieces was a barstool deliberation piece where we did the Jerry Sullivan, Rex Carr columns only with two real people as opposed to a make-believe strawman.

And while Joe’s site has been retired, we thought we might rekindle our old debate stage here on 2ITB. Our first topic? Which team would you rather be? The Bills or the Dolphins?

Chris: Joe, I think we maybe need some ground rules here. Are we looking at this from the perspective of management or are we thinking strictly fandom? Or is it intertwined?

Joe: Chris, it is great to do this again. We are both dads-on purpose!-which is fricken’ unreal. The Buffalo Wins domain doesn’t exist anymore so you can probably buy it for a dollar more than what the OneBuffalo domain is worth now…which would be a dollar. I think for your question, all of the above is in play. I’m all about fleshing out our takes and then seeing where the hell we are by the end of it. But to make it easier for your highly sophisticated readers…we can break it down this way:

Roster

Coaching/GM 

Chris: I like it. I think this is pretty juicy no matter which way you cut it. The Dolphins are grabbing a ton of headlines given how they’ve opened the season and when you factor in last year’s bonkers heat stroke game, the scare they put into the Bills in the Wild Card they feel like a legitimate threat for the division. Even if the Bills are defending champs. Let’s start at the head of the snake. Which QB are you taking?

Joe: You know I am not a homer, but I have to go with Josh Allen. The main reason is he’s done it longer than Tua. Tua has been exceptional this season and he’s played better than Allen in the short body of work, but for his career you got to go with Allen. I’ll play devil’s advocate a little bit though and if you want to compare what the stats are from last year to today…it is a lot closer than you’d probably think:

Yards per passing per game

Tua-306

Allen- 254

TDs passing per game

Tua- 2.1

Allen- 2.0

I know there’s other metrics to measure QB play, but I have a newborn son and don’t have time to email Aaron Schatz or one of the Cover 1 bros to borrow a QB chart. But based on passing yards and TD passes per game, it’s been pretty even. Now the difference is Tua has been hurt and missed 4 regular season games last year and got concussed a few other times where his playing time was cut short. Also, Allen does have his legs working for him as he’s a dual threat and has almost 900 yards rushing and eight TD runs since the start of last season. He’s also -between both teams- probably the best player. 

Chris: I dare not say Tua is a systems quarterback, because I think that drastically undervalues what he’s done well for Miami. Miami has done a great job putting unbelievable weapons at Tua’s disposal, and I think it’s fair to say the Bills’ additions aren’t quite as impressive, though not for a lack of trying. Miami’s offense feels so much more explosive and dangerous these days even though recency bias is certainly going to cloud our vision. Yet, I think the chaos Allen brings to the position – for better or worse – gives him the edge for me. I think his ability to improvise sets him apart from every QB in the league with the exception of Patrick Mahomes. You bring up some good points with their overall production, and I think you can trace some of that back to the way Miami creates offense. They’re so dangerous after the catch that they can hit for an explosive play practically every down. The Bills offense doesn’t feel quite the same. And that’s where I come back to Allen’s physical gifts and how he processes the game. I know at times we would all like him to slide a bit more or think a touch longer before heaving into double coverage, but his escapability and the plays he makes on the run are astonishing. I don’t feel that Tua has that gear. And I think if you put each under center with the same offense, same system, coaching and schedule, that’s where you’d see Allen edge him out.

Joe: You mention the skills part and that’s where I think Miami beats them in the passing game. I love Diggs, but I’m pretty ambivalent about Gabe Davis and his inability to catch contested passes. Dawson Knox does a lot of things well that don’t show up on the stat sheet. Kincaid has been okay, but he’s not changing the game for the Bills as a rookie. And that’s where the Dolphins have the Bills beat. Hill/Waddle just blow away any duo the Bills can throw at them. 

Since the start of last season, here’s where the top 2 WRs on both teams rank in receiving yards and catches in the NFL 

Hill- 2nd (2122 yards)

Diggs- 5th (1708 yards) 

Waddle- 7th (1520 yards)

Gabe Davis- 30th (995 yards) 

Hill- 2nd (144) 

Diggs- 3rd (133)

Waddle- 27 (83)

Gabe Davis- 50th (50) 

Now in terms of OL/RB roster, I probably would take the Bills in that regard even though the Dolphins just had like 400 yards rushing against the Broncos. But do you at all care if Buffalo has a better OL/Running game or do you just look at the WRs and start drooling like I do? 

Chris: I definitely get distracted by the talent on the edge. It’s hard not to. They both hit for several gash plays against the Bills last year and they’re leading practically every highlight package. The combination of their skill set and how the Dolphins use them make them so impressive. I don’t know what to make of the rest of their attack. I tend to settle on the side of concern because they’re so fast and if you can get those guys in space, they’ll kill you. I don’t know where we’d draw the line on roster makeup but the investment the Dolphins have made elsewhere on the roster is notable. They’ve got a lot of top-90 draft picks on this roster and in key positions. Not to make draft pedigree out to be the end all, be all, but the draft stock they’ve invested into their front seven, offensive line and skill positions is paying off. Dare I say, they did a good job tanking?

Joe: Death. Taxes. Ostrander mentions a tank. But did they tank with dignity?? Before I hit up defense, I want a clear answer between OL/RB. Who are you picking? Stop ducking me like Terry Pegula ducks the media. Before you answer, I’m going throw some numbers at you about the OL pass protection. 

Percentage pressured on dropbacks 

2022
Tua- 20%
Allen-17.4%

2023

Tua- 7.3%

Allen-13.7% 

While it is a small sample size for this season, Tua hasn’t been under as much pressure as he was last season as I think I saw a stat he’s only been hit 5 times. His passes have also traveled the furthest through the air at 9.1 yards per attempt which tells me his OL is holding up better. The defensive pressure on Allen has slightly dropped with a majority of him running for his life happening in the Jets game. Allen’s deep throws this season are hovering around 7.3 Yards per attempt through the air. Part of me thinks the Bills decided to do more short yardage passing in order to take pressure off the OL. But that’s just me. In terms of rushing the football, the Bills are doing pretty well and that’s really without the help of Allen’s legs. The last two games he has just six carries. Yet, Miami is rushing the crap out of the football too. 

Rushing Yards per carry 

Bills: 5.0 YPC (3rd rank)

Dolphins: 6.0 YPC (1st rank)

Rushing plays of over 20+ yards

Bills: 3 

Dolphins: 10 

So with all this info here, where are you at between OL and RB? Because I’m not sure.

Chris: It’s a tough question. So much of this feels skewed by gash plays and because the Dolphins have done so well hitting big runs, it’s easy to make that the reactionary choice. I’m going to tentatively take the Dolphins line. I’ve soured on Dion Dawkins as a left tackle you can really, really rely on and I think Spencer Brown has struggled enough that he isn’t a guy you’d be rushing to sign as a free agent. To his credit, the last two weeks have been great, and I think Dorsey and the staff have done a very good job giving him help with chips and sliding protection so he’s not on an island. This is a long way of saying that I’m not sold on either tackle and given that they’ll probably have to replace Mitch Morse pretty soon, that’s three out of five question marks, in my eyes. So, give me the Phins line by default. As for the backs, I think it’s a toss-up. Cook has had some garbage time help when it comes to some of his yardage, but if you’re leading, you’re more likely to run. I like what each of Buffalo’s backs can bring to the table. Harris is a nice change of pace and Murray is an ageless wonder. So, I’ll lean Bills backs. That’s a pretty even split for me. Allen and the Bills backs but I favor the Dolphins line and outside weapons. That brings us to the other side of the ball. I’m interested to hear your take here because even though Buffalo’s safeties are long in the tooth, I think I’m taking the Bills across the board on defense.

Joe: I can agree with that. I think the Bills have proven to have a very good defense since 2018. They have had issues stopping elite offenses in the past (See: Chiefs/Bengals playoffs) and tend to do a great job on crapping on mediocre offenses. With that said, they’ve been a top-10 defense for five years and counting. I also think -small sample size for this season- the young guys like Bernard/Rousseau/Oliver have really taken a step forward. This is critical to me because as you said since they are getting long in the tooth at safety and Milano/Tre aren’t kids anymore. They need youth to take a step here. Now, if only their first round CB from last year can get on the field. The Dolphins have not proven to me they have a legit defense. They allowed a shitload of points to the Chargers and Josh Allen has owned them like Michael Jordan owned the Cavs in the 90s. So this is easy for me.

Now here comes the part where definitively I’m taking Miami, coaching. Look, I think McDermott has done a great job. I may get tired of his culture tropes, but when you can say you helped end the drought and your team is near the top of the AFC for 3 straight years, you can make up whatever narrative you want as to why you are there. I also think McDermott when it comes to being a defensive minded HC, he’s really been aggressive on 4th down which is outside of what you’d think a defensive coach would be. He does have his faults when things get super tight in a big game, he does seem to make a mistake (See: 13 seconds). This to me is what I want. And that’s an offense. Sorry, but I dont care about defense. It is 2023 and you need offense to win in this league and I think the Bills at times think you need both. The Bills have tried using complimentary football since McDermott got here while I see other teams invest more on offense and win Super Bowls. Miami, on the other hand, totally seems all in on offense and that’s where McDaniel’s come in. I’m not a film guy, but when you see the crazy offensive play designs that the Dolphins have, I am in awe. It’s like a different world. That’s a world I want. I feel bad somewhat dumping on Dorsey because the Bills offense, stats wise, has been good. In a way, I’m holding it against him because he inherited a great offense while McDaniel inherited shit and basically has done wonders with what he got and continues to put in a lot of assets. 

Chris: On one hand, hating on Dorsey every time he calls a draw on second-and-nine is justified. Those play calls make me want to walk into the lake. But the results have been mostly positive. So I try to temper my frustrations with them on a drive-by-drive basis because it’s a long season full of long games and the big picture is what’s most important. Where my gripes are with their coaching, and where I also prefer McDaniel, is that I don’t feel like their offense is the sort of revolutionary attack that will give defenses fits. McDaniel is the new hotness just like Sean McVay was a few years ago. It’s entirely possible that people figure him out and this varied, blazing attack the Dolphins have fizzles out. But McDaniel strikes me as a more innovative thinker while McDermott is more conservative by comparison. McDermott does deserve credit for being open minded to new ways of thinking, his fourth down behavior being the best example of that. But you note where he tends to shrink, and it has been in the big moments. As this is a barstool deliberation and these types of settings are where you can sling hot takes, I would say that I have little to no faith that McDermott can keep the moxie he’s displayed in the regular season. At the end of the day, he’s likely to revert to old school thinking on getting points, clock management and field position and it will continue to bite them.

Here’s the x-factor question, Joe. We’ve talked about the various pieces of these franchises. We both like Allen. We favor McDaniel and we seem to be in lockstep with skill positions and each team’s interior lines. That’s all fine and good today and it’s a fair accounting of each team’s respective makeup. But I want to know which team you’d rather be over the next five years. Taking their entire resume into consideration. Which team are you going to bank on for a championship? Which team do you have more faith in maintaining their makeup and addressing their various weaknesses?

Joe: Ouch about having little faith in McDermott. I mean, there’s a reason why I’ve on occasion tweeted out a Phillip Rivers/Marty Schottenheimer picture. To answer your question and it is super close…What works against the Bills is I do think some of the core players for the Bills will be gone within the next 1-2 years. I don’t know about you, but something tells me Diggs is going to want out next year if the Bills don’t make it to a title game at least. Hyde/Poyer might be one and done. Offensively, if Diggs leaves, who is replacing him? Gabe Davis -who some media people mentioned in passing could get his extension before the season started- hasn’t shown he can be a #1 guy and there’s no extension news. This is still a regime that hasn’t drafted a WR in the first 3 rounds since Zay Jones in 2017 and that wasn’t even Brandon Beane. I do like that Miami seems to be using a lot more assets on offense and McDaniel has a similar view of football that I have with it being offense, offense, offense. With all that being said…I’m going Bills. The main reason is Tua. I’m worried about his concussion history. The man had what? 3 concussions last year. Maybe he’s just going to be Sidney Crosby when it comes to head injuries being a concern and then he plays another decade, but I am not risking that right now. But to me, it goes back to QB. I like Allen more than Tua and when you have a health question mark at the position like Miami does, It scares me off. Additionally, the Bills have won 3 straight AFC East titles and I feel are a safer bet to me. 

Chris: The Dolphins also need to sign a number of their key core players. Tua is up after 2024, Jaylen Waddle is coming up for a new deal, Terron Armstead is the only lineman locked up long-term and there are several key defenders who are either creeping up on UFA status or their fifth-year options. So there will be some difficult decisions to be made in Miami. We saw it happen this past offseason when Tremaine Edmunds (maybe a bad example) but there’s only so much money to go around and when your quarterback is eating up a huge chunk of cap, you get squeezed at other positions. That makes me hesitate regarding the Dolphins. I think if there was either more term on the contracts for Tua and some other key figures, Miami is probably the choice. They’re generally younger than the Bills and for the reasons we list above, there’s plenty to like about their roster. You also bring up a good point about Tua’s long-term health. It’s definitely something that you’d need to think about.

I’m not over the moon about potentially picking the Bills here either. The safeties are ancient by pro football standards and there’s been little to indicate they have adequate replacements in house at either position. Even if the Diggs situation amounts to nothing, the rest of the receiver room has been very ho-hum. Maybe Dalton Kincaid is the next Travis Kelce, but through three games he’s been relatively quiet. So I have some questions about the weapons they’re putting around their quarterback. Add in some so-so drafting and I think you have just as many long-term questions about the Bills as you would the Dolphins. I’m going to take the Bills ultimately, mostly because I believe in Allen more than I do Tua. His contract will continue to get better as the cap increases, Miami will need to wait a few years before that’s the case with whatever deal they give to Tua (assuming it’s a whopper). So that tips the scales for me. But it’s awfully close.

Joe: So we are on the same page it feels for roster construction/coaching. That’s a lot of words to agree with each other. Part of me wouldn’t blame a Bills fan to go “yo! Miami has only been great for 3 weeks! Why are we having this discussion?” Because I do think the Miami rise in popularity plus being spoiled/bored view of the Bills has made me take an envious view of Miami. It’s the classic: the new hot person walks into class and you totally forget about the good looking person that’s been there.

Last thing to address is what happens if Miami wins on Sunday, does that change your mind? Like what would need to happen this season for your opinion to change?

Chris: It’s a good thing we spent all this time totally agreeing with each other. The Dolphins are definitely benefitting from recency bias. But if they make the AFC Championship I think you really need to shift your expectations and opinions of each of these teams. I suppose if they were to win the division you could make a similar argument but I’m less concerned with that and more concerned with making tangible progress to a title. The Bills have backslid since making the title game in 2020, if the Dolphins were to vault them, it would be a legitimate wake up call in WNY.

If they win on Sunday I think the Bills are unlikely to win the division and they’ll have a bit of an uphill climb in the playoffs. But a Dolphins win Sunday doesn’t irk me as much as how they end their season. Are they in the AFC title game? Are they playing for a Super Bowl? Do they dispatch the Bills in the playoffs along the way? Those are the bigger questions to me. Sunday is important, no doubt, but I’m trying to keep it in perspective. 

Joe: I feel we may have to revisit this discussion by the end of the season. Maybe then we will have different opinions and laugh at our opinions from this piece. 

Verdict: We both pick the Bills